Visions of a Vaccinated World: The Trajectory of the Market Rotation

Published on
December 8th, 2020
Duration
40 minutes


Visions of a Vaccinated World: The Trajectory of the Market Rotation

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Ash Bennington, and Tony Greer

Published on: December 8th, 2020 • Duration: 40 minutes

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to delve into the day’s trading and explore where markets are currently at. With Joe Biden becoming President-Elect and the race for a vaccine coming closer to the end, markets have changed their tune, and Greer explains how the rotation trade is continuing to be sustained due to the markets’ vision of a vaccinated world. Greer also considers how the virtualization of society due to the pandemic will have enduring effects in the way people live and work and what that implies for new market trends such as the recent abundance of tech IPOs. Greer shares his thoughts on why the Fed will continue to only address the recovery through asset price inflation, and he discusses what this means for various asset classes. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin explores the K-shaped recovery in the housing market.

Comments

Transcript

  • VD
    Vincenzo D.
    9 December 2020 @ 07:06
    Plz, any link to Grant Williams interview? Tks
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      9 December 2020 @ 07:28
      https://www.realvision.com/shows/grant-williams/videos/grant-williams-in-conversation-with-felix-zulauf
    • SM
      Sam M.
      9 December 2020 @ 10:52
      https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-end-game-ep-9-felix-zulauf/id1508585135?i=1000495049466 ^ if Apple (not me). Just look up Grant Williams / The End Game etc on podcasts etc and you should find it. He and Bill F and He and Stepanie ... just the best content imo on the internet.
    • VD
      Vincenzo D.
      10 December 2020 @ 13:49
      Thanks Ash
    • OC
      O C.
      12 December 2020 @ 02:26
      Ash, maybe the interview can be pulled out of the archive and captions can be added to it? That would be great, if possible. Thanks.
  • LS
    Lemony S.
    10 December 2020 @ 18:26
    I think I need to create an exchange thread for all the fear mongering and disinformation there is about this virus and the vaccine. People, you don't take a vaccine that is novel and untested, fastest made in history ... for a virus that is not lethal by any definition of the word! And certainly not for healthy people with no risk factors otherwise! It is breathtaking what the real science deniers are doing. Those are the central planners and their minions; this is basic medical science.
  • DS
    David S.
    9 December 2020 @ 01:41
    From what I have read the only way to get herd immunity with COVID is with over 70% vaccinations. That still leaves 30% able to get COVID. If they recover from COVID, they will only have three to four months of immunity. There is still a lot to learn before not taking the vaccine will be statistically interesting. Most Americans will not be able to be vaccinated until March or after. Hopefully we will have better data by then. DLS
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      10 December 2020 @ 18:23
      Stop the lies. You don't just have 3 to 4 months of immunity when you recover from a virus. It's shockingly stupid and irresponsible to suggest that when encountering the wild type virus, you would have LESS immunity than a vaccine would give you. Wake up, this is basic physiology. And it is really dangerous to keep spreading these lies. You have been co-opted, David.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    9 December 2020 @ 10:28
    Rock solid episode. Agree 100% on the inadequately tested vaccine vs the human immune system. Also worth checking out the well respected Prof. Thomas Borody's work on a treatment for the virus.
    • LS
      Lewis S.
      9 December 2020 @ 11:13
      Whatever people think about it themselves I just hope they understand how deep the resistance is to mandated vaccinations. Who knows what happens to the markets if society ends up split into populations between which physical proximity is illegal.
    • JW
      John W.
      9 December 2020 @ 14:06
      The comparison between results from the randomized controlled trials (95%) and the survival rate following natural infection (99.5%) is a falsehood that I have heard before . If a falsehood (comparing occurrence of disease with occurrence of death) that if repeated often enough and allowed to go unchallenged can become accepted as a fact. The randomized controlled trial is in this framework comparing the vaccine against the human immune system ; 95% protection against COVID disease for the vaccinated. This leaves the other 5% of the population to rely on the human immune system . The true comparison would then be a survival rate of 99.975% in the vaccinated, or 20 times less chance of death from COVID in the vaccinated . The 99.5% survival rate is overall for the whole population so the 20 times less chance of death will be higher in high risk groups with lower baseline survival rates. I enjoy Tony's views on the market and even appreciate hearing the different political perspective but beyond that should RVDB be providing a platform for Anti-Vaxx errors of fact ?
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      10 December 2020 @ 18:20
      Lewis, secession happens before that. Think about what you are saying. John, you aren't an anti-vaxxer, or anywhere near it, if you decide not to submit to an outrageous central planning scheme, for which there is no long term testing AND (most importantly) a virus that just isn't lethal. Vaccinations were a good sell to people who actually would have a problem with virus X. That is NOT sars-cov2, based simply on its profile, what it does to healthy people (nothing), and is nothing but unscientific fear mongering with a side of control, yet again. It's laughable when you have smart guys who are somewhat compromised in bias - see Drs. Attia and Offitt talk about it - suggest that they are happy that 1 million guinea pigs will take this "vaccine" first before they'll even consider it. Seriously, do some homework here and use your common sense. I'm a physicians and most are politically, or socially, compromised on this issue. Or both. It's sad as people are being harmed by draconian policies and the (intended) consequences, and far more than have been harmed by covid19.
  • DL
    Dillon L.
    10 December 2020 @ 08:35
    Tony G seems like a full blown stud, love that guy after this ep alone lol. Great work to Ash and Haley as well and everyone BTS at Real Vision. What you guys have started here is dope, glad to have stumbled across y'all from Pomps podcast!
  • MF
    M F.
    10 December 2020 @ 06:02
    Tony is one of the best Daily Brief speakers, plain and simple...such massive value add...yes, as Ash says "crisp and clean"...Tony gets to the point, has a view, and is often correct. Thanks Tony/RV...always a great session with Tremendous Tony.
  • TM
    Tyler M.
    10 December 2020 @ 02:00
    Max, good job, especially the first half. You’re growing on me. I often feel the need to fit any silence with talking, but pauses are often good, set the pace, and allow the other person in the interview to chime in. Your knowledge is certainly growing, but Ed is a fountain of information and I was hoping to hear him speak more. That said, you’re certainly improving with your interview hosting skills!
  • OC
    O C.
    9 December 2020 @ 19:08
    "hey, how come the Federal Reserve is buying this ETF that has Apple bonds in it, and the Apple stock is worth a gazillion dollars? How come I still can't get the $1200 to pay my rent?"
    • LF
      Liam F.
      9 December 2020 @ 21:16
      Because you're just a tax mule, taker. You're not an elite, rentier maker.
  • TC
    Tim C.
    9 December 2020 @ 01:03
    TG seems to always get is political quips in. This commentary on high tax and low tax illustrates a fundamental lack of research as to real rates of tax. Tax burden on a state by state basis varies greatly based on income bracket. Many of the "cheapest" states for the 1% are the most expensive for the lower 50%. so what if financials leave NYC. It eventually gets to an equilibrium.
    • MB
      Matt B.
      9 December 2020 @ 19:52
      This lack of research was likewise on display with his vaccination comments. I don't doubt he's a great trader, but I've met parking lot attendants with better scientific instincts.
  • CR
    Carlos R.
    9 December 2020 @ 19:08
    One of my favourite guests on RV. Thank you for the amazing content as usual.
  • CR
    Carlos R.
    9 December 2020 @ 19:08
    One of my favourite guests on RV. Thank you for the amazing content as usual.
  • JL
    Jason L.
    9 December 2020 @ 15:02
    RVDB amazingly keeps getting better! I always love TG Tuesdays and hearing Tony's take. And wow, how Haley has improved. Her covering the K-shaped recovery is unique to Real Vision and puts other financial media outlets to shame for not highlighting this dichotomy. Amazing stocks are at all-time highs amidst the second wave of a global pandemic with states and countries on lockdown. It just goes to show how markets are manipulated by the central banks of the West...interest rates at zero or negative force money out of fixed income and into equities (and crypto), launching shares to ridiculously high P/E ratios. Meanwhile, those who do not have equity investments are getting poorer.
  • dw
    douglas w.
    9 December 2020 @ 00:15
    Haley has been improving on her tone and cadence with the daily news, thoughtful, confident and measured. Keep up the great work.
    • NL
      Nikola L.
      9 December 2020 @ 00:42
      Haley is young and still learning. People have to understand that.
    • PC
      Paul C.
      9 December 2020 @ 09:00
      She has come on leaps and bounds over the last 6 weeks or so. The coaching and just damn hard work i’m sure she has put in is bearing fruit as most of us will attest. You’re young and will make mistakes Hayley. Dust yourself down, pick yourself up and keep moving forward. Awesome work.
    • JL
      Jason L.
      9 December 2020 @ 14:57
      It's great to see. Her voice, literally and figuratively, meaning what she is uniquely covering (e.g. the under-reported K-shaped recovery we are witnessing in the economy) is great to see, and it has me analyzing the markets from a slightly different perspective. Thank you Haley!
  • WT
    William T.
    9 December 2020 @ 00:54
    Hayley sounds much better now that she is not yelling. A pleasurable improvement. Very good.
    • MH
      Martin H.
      9 December 2020 @ 00:59
      Yes... much better. Thanks Hayley.
    • rm
      ryan m.
      9 December 2020 @ 04:07
      Hahaha Well said
    • JL
      Jason L.
      9 December 2020 @ 14:54
      Haley has found her voice. I'd like to see more of her
  • LC
    Louis C.
    9 December 2020 @ 03:36
    Haley sounds great!
    • MG
      Michael G.
      9 December 2020 @ 10:14
      Yep, I think she has come a long way since her first (least I say it 'high pitched') intro on Real Vision DB. Keep it up Haley great work.
    • JL
      Jason L.
      9 December 2020 @ 14:53
      Couldn't agree more!
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    9 December 2020 @ 09:48
    Nice work Haley!
    • JL
      Jason L.
      9 December 2020 @ 14:52
      She's great!
  • DS
    David S.
    9 December 2020 @ 00:32
    The exodus from NYC high-income earners started with the reduction in deductibility of state and local taxes on federal income tax. COVID complications have given added incentives and urgencies to moving. DLS
    • WT
      William T.
      9 December 2020 @ 00:52
      Can somebody please tell me what DLS means
    • ML
      Michele L.
      9 December 2020 @ 02:00
      he means the SALT deduction cap enacted under the Trump tax overhaul which limits state and local tax deductions to $10k per year which in high tax states like NY, NJ, CA is alot less than what people actually pay.
    • JA
      John A.
      9 December 2020 @ 02:38
      Don't interrupt Tony's politically biased views on the Goldman move with facts ;).
    • GF
      Gordon F.
      9 December 2020 @ 02:43
      William asks what DLS means. If he is referring to the initials at the end, I assume that that is how David S. - author of the note - signs his comments, using his initials.
    • WT
      William T.
      9 December 2020 @ 03:21
      Thanks Gordon. WT ;)
    • DS
      David S.
      9 December 2020 @ 10:43
      Gordon F. Thanks, you are correct. They are my initials as there are more than one David S. commenters. DLS
  • RL
    Remmelt L.
    9 December 2020 @ 10:19
    The best weak program daily brieving: Monday Ed/Ash, Ed tells everything what is in the newspapers in the world and talking about the risk, Tuesday Tony about how the markets react, most bullish. Wednesday a gast on the show with a new perspective. Thursday Roger hirsh give his views, he see everything different and made the call of daily brieving. In june/may we get 62 retreacement or 4000 S&p. Friday close with Raoul. This is the perfect Daily-briefing weak for me.
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    9 December 2020 @ 10:11
    Superb ...
  • DK
    Danny K.
    9 December 2020 @ 07:32
    If you're gonna inflate assets, freeze wages and pump BLM into everyone, don't be surprised when you get brownshirts.
  • kR
    kirk R.
    9 December 2020 @ 05:54
    Always great to see TG! Love the clear easy & concise breakdowns.
  • JT
    John T.
    9 December 2020 @ 05:36
    Tremendous interview. I’m still very skeptical about where real demand will come from with regards to base metals and energy, but Tony is spot on in pointing out that the federal reserve is a one trick pony that boosts asset prices and if you don’t have assets then their “recovery” will pass you by once again.
  • GW
    Greg W.
    9 December 2020 @ 02:41
    Ash and Tony provide the best overall market commentary. I email this to several friends and the feedback is always positive. Thanks for you hard work and thoughtful analysis. You guys are great.
    • AB
      Ash B. | Real Vision
      9 December 2020 @ 05:10
      Thanks, Greg. Appreciate that.
  • CW
    Chase W.
    9 December 2020 @ 04:34
    Nice to have Tony on, keeps my excessive bearishness in check.
  • KT
    Kevin T.
    9 December 2020 @ 04:29
    I love TG's take on the markets. He's a sharp mind and I get a lot out of listening to him. But I don't come here for info on virology, immunology or epidemiology. Let's leave those topics to their respective experts.
  • JA
    John A.
    9 December 2020 @ 02:47
    Yep, 18 months of a pandemic are going to suddenly make everyone never want to live in a real neighborhood again. I lived in New Jersey for 10 years. Unless you have kids, living in the suburbs sucks if you can afford to live in the city. The real question is will the small businesses that provide jobs to those same neighborhoods will still be there? It may take years for the sector to recover. But anyone who could afford to live in NYC could already afford a house almost anywhere in the country. Distance working will not go away, but the idea that you can run a company for years like this and not lose teamwork and cohesion has not been tested. It will be impossible for younger employees to learn the inner workings of these organizations over time if they don't get real contact with more experienced people in a team setting. You can't run every enterprise like a call center. There is a cost to all of this distance working. We are just more willing to pay it now because of the situation. Human relationships and networking still matter.
    • JF
      Jonathan F.
      9 December 2020 @ 04:25
      I agree completely. If I have to pick between 100% WFH or 0% WFH I'll take 0. 2-3 days of WFH per week is my sweet spot.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    9 December 2020 @ 03:42
    Disagree with Tony's numbers on the vaccine. Again, focus on death rate. What is a vaccine worth if you are in the services biz and have to miss two weeks of paid work because you got the virus? What is that worth? What is the value of not going to the hospital for weeks to a month to get over it? What is that cost to you? Currently hospitalizations are running 5% of current daily cases. Like buying home insurance. What are the chances your house burns down yet you buy home insurance? Number of home fires runs about 0.5% per year for insured homes. Sure seems like a waste of money, But then the home is one of the major assets for most families. There were only 94 polio cases in US last year. Do you give your kid a vaccine to prevent this disease or run the risk that in the low odds they get it, they could be paralyzed? So what is your life worth to you to simply insure it with a vaccine? Wonder what my perfectly healthy friend (and his wife and 15 year old son) would say after passing away after 2 weeks with Covid. Wonder how 41 year old Nick Cordero (and his wife and newborn son) would have answered the question of taking a vaccine. Seems like this low cost insurance is worth it unless you are 100% sure in how your body will handle the disease. Risk management.
    • DR
      Derrick R.
      9 December 2020 @ 03:47
      I wouldn’t bother man, these people just don’t get it
  • MD
    Matt D.
    9 December 2020 @ 03:27
    Thanks Bro :) TG - Some interesting insights - not afraid to call it like it is too. This is a good one to powershare. Thanks Tony and Ash.
  • BK
    Brian K.
    9 December 2020 @ 00:11
    Excellent idea by Tony Greer about teaching the basics of finance and markets.
    • NL
      Nikola L.
      9 December 2020 @ 00:46
      The only problem with that idea is, most people that need it think they already know everything about finance and markets. 😒
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      9 December 2020 @ 03:19
      Learning is like breathing .. when you stop your dead...
  • FR
    FLAVIO R.
    9 December 2020 @ 02:59
    Tony Greer man thank you. Your take on vaccines was pleasant to hear, fully agree. It is relevant to remind all that Pfizer agreed to Pay $2.3 Billion for Fraudulent Marketing to the US Justice Dept. No Pfizer on my arms for sure. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-announces-largest-health-care-fraud-settlement-its-history Stay well.
  • SG
    Steve G.
    9 December 2020 @ 02:45
    TG still the best
  • AL
    Aaron L.
    9 December 2020 @ 02:39
    If TG is willing, allow the segment to run overtime so he can get all his ideas in. I know you like to keep to set amount of time, but in fast moving markets the segment will run over and in quiet times it will be short and sweet. And you know what, that is totally OK. Cheers :D
  • BP
    Bryce P.
    9 December 2020 @ 02:15
    Visions of an injection FRAUDED world!!!!!!
  • jG
    james G.
    9 December 2020 @ 01:55
    yep. I'm not lining up for it either ...
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    9 December 2020 @ 00:40
    Tony rocks.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      9 December 2020 @ 01:46
      tryin my best man, thank you.
  • DR
    Dave R.
    9 December 2020 @ 00:56
    Big fan of TG and the way he frames up the market!
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      9 December 2020 @ 01:46
      Thank you Dave.
  • JB
    Jack B.
    9 December 2020 @ 01:36
    So much better than the CNBC guy. Interesting that media focuses on 3 former presidents getting vaccine, but not mentioning the immediate and priority medical services they enjoy - just like the 1%'s. When I'm in their situation I'll join them. Until then I have to collect more data as it specifically applies to me, my health and medical history.
    • TG
      Tony G. | Contributor
      9 December 2020 @ 01:45
      thank you for that Jack.
  • TC
    Tim C.
    9 December 2020 @ 01:39
    FWIW AAPL is out of its (20,2) bollinger bands which is narrow.
  • DT
    David T.
    9 December 2020 @ 00:10
    40-50 Trillion FED balance sheet will wipeout US dollar from the reserve currency list.
    • DS
      David S.
      9 December 2020 @ 00:35
      No need for reserve currency in a few years. Value of all fiat currencies will then be determined by the FX market. DLS
  • DL
    David L.
    8 December 2020 @ 23:57
    Always a pleasure to get a trader's perspective.