When Market Ebullience Meets A Left Hook

Published on
December 21st, 2020
Duration
36 minutes

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When Market Ebullience Meets A Left Hook

Daily Briefing ·
Featuring Haley Draznin, Jack Farley, and Peter Boockvar

Published on: December 21st, 2020 • Duration: 36 minutes

Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision editor Jack Farley to break down his market outlook as stimulus talks draw to a close and an alarming new strain of COVID-19 spreads throughout the United Kingdom. Boockvar makes his case for why inflation will continue to rise alongside nominal yields in 2021, and he explains why this macro outlook leads him to look favorably upon commodities and value stocks that trade at significantly low price/earnings multiples since he expects multiples to compress across the equity landscape as nominal yields rise. Boockvar gives a strategic update on the state of the Fed's QE programs and argues that the expiration of the Fed's emergency lending programs is not unwelcome and, in fact, is overdue. Lastly, Boockvar shares with Farley several stocks on his radar, such as CVS Health Corp ($CVS) and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc ($WBA) as well as evaluates their future business prospect. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin monitors the markets as stimulus relief package passes in the US and a new strain of the coronavirus emerged in England, prompting fresh travel restrictions across Europe.

Comments

Transcript

  • LS
    Lewis S.
    22 December 2020 @ 22:47
    I feel like Hayley is finally relaxed on camera.
    • MS
      Mark S.
      23 December 2020 @ 17:40
      Absolutely agree. For me she’s slowed her delivery and removed filler phrases. I no longer have to rewind the tape.
  • DG
    David G.
    23 December 2020 @ 05:25
    If the FED can buy the short end, why can't they buy the long end? Plus I just watched a video with Dr. Manmohan Singh from the IMF talking out the plumbing of the financial system, and how treasuries are vehicles for rehypothecation, how does that impact his thesis?
  • SV
    Steven V. | Contributor
    22 December 2020 @ 18:58
    Big fan of Peter, even though we disagree on where yields and the dollar are headed.
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      22 December 2020 @ 21:40
      If you are who I think you are (Steven V... ... ..an Metre), then you two should have a peer-to-peer convo on RV!
    • DG
      David G.
      23 December 2020 @ 05:16
      Someone once said, the bears are always early. Perhaps his theory is premature.
  • TC
    Tim C.
    23 December 2020 @ 03:35
    I have a lot of respect for Peter and love listening to his views. Don't always agree, but also realize I'm wrong plenty... The interaction between Treasuries and inflation is getting complicated. I'm not sure I agree that we get a 1.5% to 2% yield on the 10Y. There are $7T of 2Y-7Y coming due in the next 4 years and only $1.3T of 10Y. A 1.5% 10Y is going to infect the middle of the curve. There are a number of separate feedback loops in operation here. History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. We are at one of those points where inflation and treasury rates are disassociating... I grew up around Ag, but I'm no expert. I do know there has been a 3.3% CAGR for fertilizers in last few years and Soy fertilization cost is less than 1/2 of Corn. Not arguing there isn't a trade there, just saying it takes a lot of work to analyze demand in that market.
  • SC
    Sejong C.
    22 December 2020 @ 08:16
    Just visited Rye just before Massachusetts made quarantine mandatory for out-of-state travel. Nice place, love the view out of the window.
    • MD
      Michael D.
      22 December 2020 @ 23:19
      One of my favorite places. You must have awesome views when storms come in, Jack .
  • LS
    Lewis S.
    22 December 2020 @ 22:59
    On the notion that fertilizer 'enhances the productivity of land' - what happens is that fertilizers give farmers higher short term yields and lower long term ones. Fertilizers turn soil into dirt. Farmers are realising this too, they're opting to go low input / low debt over getting hooked on fertilizer until bankruptcy.
  • MD
    Michael D.
    22 December 2020 @ 22:59
    Good job Haley. You are a plus for the Real Vision team.
  • JL
    Jason L.
    22 December 2020 @ 15:33
    Thank you Haley! You have been a wonderful addition to the RV team. Happy and healthy holidays to all
  • KB
    Kevin B.
    22 December 2020 @ 14:39
    You are awesome, even in your pajamas. Real People at RealVison..... Thank you again Haley.
  • ac
    ace c.
    22 December 2020 @ 11:43
    Haley, you do a great job, THANK YOU! And Happy Holiday's to you and the entire RV team!!
  • MN
    Mark N.
    22 December 2020 @ 07:11
    I appreciate the work of Haley, Jack and the entire Real Vision team. Happy Holidays!
    • JF
      Jack F. | Real Vision
      22 December 2020 @ 10:04
      Thanks Mark! Happy holidays!!
  • CW
    Chase W.
    22 December 2020 @ 07:19
    Not sure I follow. Boockvar sounds bullish, then points out we are at irrational exuberance levels and that could explode. All I see is risk, no recovery. I don't understand where all the positive sentiment is coming from. This will not end well.
    • CW
      Chase W.
      22 December 2020 @ 07:23
      One additional thing, on Nutrien and Mosiac you need to watch developments in Belarus, where political developments could impact global fertilizer supplies.
  • VK
    Vaclav K.
    22 December 2020 @ 06:31
    Jack, Abaxx Technologies (commodities tokenization) interview would be great. BTW, is that virtual background? :)
  • ER
    Eric R.
    22 December 2020 @ 06:23
    Well done Jack. Well prepared and good structure. And you manage to hold on to specifics, which is very useful. Good job.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    22 December 2020 @ 05:31
    Great show. Would love to hear more off the cuff stuff from Hayley! Looking forward to 2021 with you guys. Btw, any chance you could get Milton Berg back on? Would love to hear an update from him.
  • JA
    John A.
    22 December 2020 @ 02:23
    I don't see why anyone continues to think that nominals are going to be allowed to go up in a meaningful manner.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      22 December 2020 @ 05:23
      Agreed.
  • DM
    Damien M.
    22 December 2020 @ 05:04
    "You mentioned the assets your bullish on, where do you expect that liquidity to come from?" You would never find a question like that on CNBC, this is why I'm here.
  • so
    steven o.
    22 December 2020 @ 04:01
    Mr. Boockvar refuses to drink the cool aid. Me too. I also prefer fertilizer and gold/silver.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    22 December 2020 @ 01:34
    Peter's the BEST. And this was the best of the best. Haley concludes aptly with very kind words: well-deserved praise. Jack is the young turk, and somehow (like Haley) he has fancy properties on every coast. (!?) Thank you all on and off air talent for the great RVDBs and RV content all year. Happy Holidays.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    22 December 2020 @ 01:30
    thank you Haley, Jack and Peter. Great DB.
  • SW
    Suzanne W.
    22 December 2020 @ 01:19
    Jack does a phenomenal job filling in for Ash!