Past his prime. Not up to RV standards, in my opinion.

I’m questioning depicted GDP levels on the Chart of Debt to GDP. Inflation Adjusted “Real GDP” is roughly $19T according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (FRED Economic Data) and reports the Debt to GDP currently at about 107%. The US Commerce Department Bureau of Economic Analysis appears to report Nominal GDP at $21.5T and validates the GDP at 2012 dollars at $19T. The Debt clock (I love this website) reports US National Debt at roughly $26.5T and GDP at $20T – and US Federal Debt to GDP at 132.57%. All figures above suggest that the chart presented does not properly reflect our debt to GDP level. Debt is actually higher than presented.

I don't believe this guy is as smart as he thinks he is. Not impressed.

Kotok just couldn't let politics go throughout the entire interview. It wasn't even interesting political commentary. Just pure ranting.

Not the best video on Rvt by far but there was some good info there. I am pretty sure taxes are going to rise. Like many here I am not at all sure about his views about China. I am not blind to US faults, but China is not a friend and have long game bent on domination. history always works this way and war is very likely.

Strongly disagree on the China apologist narrative, and too much ranting for my taste, but still somewhat enjoyable watch.

A lot to digest, but my main takeaway: regardless of beliefs about politics, virus or whatever, spending won’t return to normal until people feel safe.

He’s wrong on trade. If we don’t decouple from China our kids are going to be in big trouble. Kyle Bass is right. CCP is evil and we need to move away. Very painful in short run, but necessary. There are winners - the businesses that take over for China. More costly yes. Better for our society. Virus is indeed man made he’s wrong about that too. Just one mans opinion.

Sorry but I think it needs to be said "ok boomer" he is paranoid about the virus yet the answer is bowing down to china... Who doesn't like you. Interesting to see all points of view though. Did remind me a bit of my freinds dad with a few beers in him giving a semi factual political rant

There is truth and there is the realization that everything you've ever seen is politicized, to one degree or another. Kotok is acting like a baby boomer that has been too well connected for too long, without realization that his truth isn't the reality he sees.

Clearly he has a political agenda that is more important to him than anything else. Lost me.

Comparison: Population: US 330 Million Norway 5,4 Million Covid cases on 10 march: US 290 Norway 173 Covid cases 15 July accumulated US 3.607.267 Norway 9.006 Accumulated deaths: US 140.000 Norway 253 People in intensive care on 15 July US 16.349 Norway 1 Norway has reopened in a staggered and gradual way since mid april. Schools are open, restaurants are open,hairdressers etc, but big gatherings are still banned, and especially if they are indoors. Norway opened up for tourist from the rest of Europe today, except for a few countries where the levels of Covid 19 are deemed to high. We never had Sars or anything similar, but the public discussion has been based on science and facts, and the politicians have been open and honest about what are the risks. Norway has followed the advice of the WHO. Masks have not been mandated, but it is recommended to wear a mask in closed space if it is crowded. You hardly see anyone with a mask in the streets, and only a few in shops. Wash your hands, do social distancing, work from home if you can. Avoid crowds, especially indoors. This has been the medicine, and the population has done as told. Good luck America, you can do better than this!

More facts less ranting please

I have always appreciated Raul, Ed, Ash,Peter, etc who keep their political and personal opinions out of conversations. The first part about the Grand Canyon analogy was good but the conversation had too many biased opinions presented as fact. I have always appreciated Raul, Ed, Ash, Peter and others that keep political views away from the content. I quit listening as I found it to be disturbing after his Huawei, China and Gov. DeSantis comments.

Wow! First off, kudos to DMB for a superbly professional interview. Half way through I'm agreeing with his cogent observations and thinking that I need to moderate and hedge my near-to-medium term bearish view. Then, he drops the kimono on his biases and I wonder whether it is he or I that is disillusioned. Despite his rose-colored glasses treatment of one of the most despotic regimes in human history, he nevertheless finds the right metaphor - not of the Grand Canyon, but rather, the forest fire. That which, while unfortunate, rejuvenates in the long term. Regardless, to the end his views punctuate points that must be considered. This is the content for which I subscribe to Real Vision. The synapses are firing - this was thought-provoking to the last. Now then, on to sizing and timing...

spends too much time talking about the Grand Canyon. C'mon, get on with it.

I really enjoyed this interview with all the politics thrown in for good measure. Let's be honest, this crisis is an economic and a political crisis. He says most humorously "...we can climb in and out of the Grand Canyon on a mule, I've never seen anyone do it on an elephant." I would suggest we can make an analogy that Hannibal did just such a thing in 218BC when he crossed the Alps.

People just can’t hear the truth! Forget about the politics. Look at the medical facts. I am a physician and I am qualified to talk about diseases and treatments. Medical realities will rule the economy. Medically, we have totally blown it. We are in a forest fire now. Go ahead! Deny reality and give this interview a thumbs down. It will make you feel better. It will not change reality.

I do not know how Cumberland has preformed recently. In my past as a PM, they were one of the best firms in the business and always constrained their asset size. Whether the interviewer is a liberal or not it is important to understand politics and economics. At Wharton again a while ago, one of my most important courses was politics and markets. The liberal policies that could happen in the next election if both President and Senate turn democratic cannot be underestimated. Biden’s agenda is so incredible liberal that taken to a natural conclusion the government will be influeing markets destroying economics of one business and subsidising g others. Also make no mistake at times of economic uncertainties, trade wars, trade restrictions like barring Taiwan Semiconductor to sell to Huawei could have serious repercussions. I actually would like to see Real Vision have experts speak about impact on economic players if democrats win. This is political brought into economics.

It's an election year, you're going to hear about politics. Just don't get your panties in a bunch when someone has a different viewpoint than yours. RV is about bringing different viewpoints together. Having more information, be that in the form of opinions or substantiated facts, is not a bad thing. It's what we used to call being a well rounded person.

He likes Goolsby. He lost me

Hack

What a wise man

Danielle can you and Chris Cole interview Nassim Taleb for RV subscribers?

As a UK-based person, the US political bits didn't really bother me. What I found interesting was that David's high level analysis is similar to Ray Dalio's. Would be great to hear the thoughts of David Hunter too, if possible. Thanks and all the best.

Not many people say the truth these days. Glad you two do. Tough to hear, probably why so much negativity in rating and comments..

Well if Mr. Kotok's idea of reviewing the dollar is in 2024-2025, then my money is on Bitcoin over U.S. dollar, Chinese Yuan, or Eurodollar. Gold is out of the picture because just not enough of it around to be feasible and not divisible enough to be usable.

This guy needs a sit down with Kyle Bass.

Too much politics here - don’t subscribe to hear people rag on politicians (I get that for free in the MSM). First half was good though.

Good interview but this guy very pro-China...must be on the money gravy train via sep managed accounts, it is going to be bad what DJT administration will do leading up to election and denying it might happen isn’t right way to approach it.

Re David's forest fire analogy - some people are getting re-infected with Covid-19!

This guy has a worried look on his face; I'd not give him my money to manage. Wound up skipping to each section because the "thoughts" he was trying to communicate were hard to follow and took too long to come out. Thanks Danielle.

Democratic pundit?

From the thumbs up and down, I would say the election is still close among subscribers. DLS

Solid interview. One of the big differences between now and WWII is the gold standard. Everyone in the 1930s and 1940s expected to pay the debt back someday. Now we simply delude ourselves - extreme left and right. The best part of this interview for me was with truthful information coupled with science. Now in the era of "do anything and there are no consequences", we will dig the hole ever deeper without believing real information. Countries that fight the virus with actual information and science win. Countries that do not lose. This is all over the world. DLS

I would have preferred that Danielle is the interviewed one :) she is great. Again, can someone do it soon?

Had a hard time with this one. Didn't know who Mr. Kotok was before this, and found myself thinking through the interview, what is he talking about? All my buddies and I are already back to life as normal, albeit masked up. Just found his emotions and fear perplexing. Maybe it is the generational divide, but a Boomer talking about the world being a raging forest fire outside his door and will be safe again with UV disinfectant for air on planes, I don't know, if that is what he's waiting for, I wouldn't want to switch places with him or have him managing money. Just felt bad for him by the end of it.

"There are no winners in trade wars and protectionism" - right, except when those other countries use tariffs to penalize US companies, right? How about labor arbitrage when you make every labor market fully fungible? Think that doesn't hurt anyone as the hourly paid worker wage gets flattened down by the big hand of globalism because there's a bunch of poor farmers willing to work in a factory for a few cents a day in vietnam? Just watch what happens to the EU. Their touted benefits now have resulted in Germany and the other richer countries having to foot the bill for the poorer-performing economies. Its all arbitrage, its all money flows and no one seems to get it. You open the sluicegates, you better be ready to deal with the extremes of your market's bid/ask. Interesting interview, but I can see some bias here interfering with his investment views.

Kotok is right on some things and extremely wrong on others. He is right about America abandoning LATAM. It is an area that with good leadership are our natural allies and trade partners. Instead both parties in the past have abandoned it and as a result we have Venezuela, Cuba etc. As to China he is SO WRONG. I recommend he and everyone read "Unrestricted Warfare" written by 2 PLA high ranking officers many years ago. It is the blueprint for what is going on. We are at war with the Chinese communist party. This administration is the only one that has stood up for America. Also I have many friends in the medical field and most of them believe this is a weaponized manmade virus. Kotok's liberal bias was in full display during many parts of the interview. Videos need to start discussing more investment ideas IMO.

I cant get past his comments that we will need to begin to normalize Monetary(and fiscal) after Covid is over. This will never happen. Comparison to WWII is terrible. We will see inflation and/or jubilee, but policy makers will never normalize voluntarily.

One of the biggest duds I've seen on RV in quite a while. I think the editorial staff let this one slip through the cracks. Sometimes, despite the best of intentions, it just doesn't work. On those rare occasions, just toss it in the garbage can and say "we tried our best"

Great to see the true bent of Kotok come out. Having a daughter teaching at Berkeley says it all. He sees America 1st as the problem, rather than our unconditional surrender to China in so many areas. Both liberal & conservatives in gov't now acknowledge the cyber threat China poses to our national security, but not Kotok. It was revealing to see how liberal globalist think - but very, very scary.

Define "price discovery" LOL The Fed and politicians on both sides do NOT want price discovery.

Most people don't have that level of paranoia and money to pay much extra for the virus cleaning planes and buildings.

Good questions Danielle, for such an experienced guest the replies seemed a bit simplistic or idealistic? I don't know. It would be easy to disagree with them with reason. Anyway. The "unknown" gap till 2021 will probably determine what happens after.

I would like not be writing this, but I have reached similar conclusions on the risks of a real war with China. Once I read the book "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? - by Allison, Graham. It is a good way to understand the background of the trade war, which is sometimes the initial step before a real war. However, I hope that we will dodge the bullet at this point in time of the history, as it has happened in the other examples of the "Thucydides's Trap "the theory that "when one great power threatens to displace another, war is almost always the result". Greetings. Jon

Big Orange is bad. Got it.

Started of good. Then deteriorated into a rant.

First 15 min was the most valuable. Didn’t appreciate the politics coming subtly from the host and blatantly from the guest.