The Bitcoin Life Raft and The New Bretton Woods

Published on
October 19th, 2020
Duration
35 minutes

The Bitcoin Life Raft and The New Bretton Woods

Expert View - Crypto ·
Featuring Raoul Pal

Published on: October 19th, 2020 • Duration: 35 minutes

Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, breaks down the events leading to the recent tidal wave of interest in Central Bank Digital Currencies. He touches on the various crises that have encouraged the rampant printing by central banks and the destructive consequences this has left in its wake. Touting Bitcoin as the unkillable “cockroach of finance” and the life raft for this transitional period in history, Raoul sees CBDCs as the killer of stable coins and the start of a new era in the world of monetary and fiscal policy - the first major steps of technology eating the traditional finance world. Pal says that all of the macro signals are pointing towards a major shift in how the system is run. He cites the allowance of banking custody for crypto assets by regulators, major corporate treasuries investing in Bitcoin, and new types of banks, such as Kraken, all as pivotal events in the coming shift to a digital asset world. Filmed on October 18, 2020.

Comments

Transcript

  • PB
    Paul B.
    30 November 2020 @ 04:47
    It's all good while the Electricity Grid works
  • PB
    Paul B.
    30 November 2020 @ 04:27
    So the FED is going down the Bitcoin Road.....What makes you think these 2 Party's are going to place nice together?
  • JB
    John B.
    22 November 2020 @ 13:44
    Great content
  • MG
    Miguel G.
    22 October 2020 @ 20:32
    If I want exposure to bitcoin can I use ticker GBTC as an alternative? Im sure buying actual bitcoin would be the safer bet but I guess Im wondering if this etf is a safe alternative
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      22 October 2020 @ 20:43
      It's technically not an ETF and it trades at premiums and discounts to NAV very regularly. I use it from time to time and have been pleased. It is not the same as owning bitcoin. Here is a website with good historical data on this: https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/discount_or_premium_to_nav
    • MC
      Michael C.
      20 November 2020 @ 03:52
      Another one is BTCE GY - they were on real vision recently. Expensive but pretty clean
  • JL
    Julien L.
    18 November 2020 @ 06:56
    I’m impressed how relevant this video is, even more impressed 1 month after it came out.
  • CE
    Christoph E.
    16 November 2020 @ 21:25
    I agree
  • GB
    Gerald B.
    15 November 2020 @ 19:29
    The best Unvarnished information available. Thank you. My personal beliefs and themes of finance and economics
  • JG
    Jory G.
    10 November 2020 @ 20:22
    I wonder what happens should there be a major electronic infrastructure failure like a catastrophic virus infection that affects major parts of the world system.
    • JD
      Jeffrey D.
      11 November 2020 @ 01:25
      Shouldn't have an effect on offline wallets. Major problems if this is the case, (Solar burst, gamma ray burst, emp, nuclear attack). Food and security is the major concern in this event.
  • LS
    L S.
    8 November 2020 @ 15:22
    Very sturdy here. Good stuff.
  • pp
    pakorn p.
    7 November 2020 @ 12:12
    Hi, In my opinion, there’s still risk on crypto through the ban on exchanges as the government once decided to stop the way to fund out or convert back to cash. It would be extremely hard for people to take back the money. Though, I see the cases where the payment gateways like paypal, Globee started allowing online merchants to sell items via BTC/ETH/etc. I think we could see a lot more progress from there. The problem with tax is another issues that I’m concerned that government would eventually take the matter seriously which I don’t know which way this gonna turn out.
  • YL
    Yen L.
    28 October 2020 @ 06:54
    What if Trump wins and he immediately opens up the economy, and other countries start following the same? Does it mean there's a chance that the insolvency phase gets much less minimized? Max Keiser seemed to think a Trump win would mean that BTC will see a slower rise up than it would if Biden wins next week. Not sure what do ppl here think?
    • LS
      L S.
      3 November 2020 @ 19:44
      Great question. I totally agree with Mr. Pal (on commodities / BTC) but he gets upset when I am critical of certain people's (random) political comments. I hope he sees that my aim is to advance the dialogue, albeit in a provocative way. It really is my focus I mean it to shape people in the fashion that you are; ask great questions and challenge the presupposition that everything is going to hell faster than we can stop ... but we shall see.
    • YL
      Yen L.
      7 November 2020 @ 11:01
      Yes, Agreed. I thought it might be prudent to be open to the possibilities of a Trump win then, as the pollsters were previously wrong during the last election and figured they could be wrong again -- all while being mindful that perhaps I could be stuck in the "hope phase" too :)
  • PH
    Pat H.
    25 October 2020 @ 23:44
    Ok Raoul, I am jumping on the Bitcoin bandwagon. There is a lot of Greek to decipher. Is Bitcoin.Org a legit organization, seems so. Is a legit wallet BRG? You can buy from Bitcoin.org if you have your wallet address. Am I getting this right? I can buy directly from BRG too but their fees seem high.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      26 October 2020 @ 12:19
      Just try someone like Coinbase or Gemini. Easy UX.
    • Sp
      Scott p.
      6 November 2020 @ 02:52
      Kraken one of the most respected in the community.
  • JR
    JOHN R.
    5 November 2020 @ 02:15
    I would very much like to see Peter Brandt speak with Raoul again. Peter had earlier said $14,000.00 was a significant level. We are there. Bitcoin is the main event. Thank you, John Ross
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    21 October 2020 @ 09:36
    I think the 5 year view for global adoption is going to be too aggressive a position. There are way too many entrenched power bases that will resist this wholesale change and Raoul ignores the politics behind its adoption in his video - VERY RELEVANT. First up will be individual countries doing their own experiments. Only after there is some confidence there will there be an expansion. And a global digital currency? Nah - which country will give up its sovereignty. And then the whole issue of exchange rates and common global clearances. Do you think the US will give up its power over the USD/Swift that easily. More likely an alternative clearance mechanism will start up backed by emerging economies and BRICS. Whether that is digital or otherwise remains to be seen.
    • LS
      L S.
      21 October 2020 @ 15:57
      Yes, see my above post, I sorta agree with your hesitation here. The best part of adopting or investing in BTC right now though is that we are early and it will outdo most other asset classes, so I don't care if it takes even 15, I'm HODLING. (-:
    • JC
      Jason C.
      21 October 2020 @ 20:44
      5 years is very possibly too aggressive, but if there is a financial and/or geopolitical crisis far worse than anyone anticipates then it is probably spot on.
    • LS
      L S.
      3 November 2020 @ 19:46
      Jason you are onto something there, I agree, I see this decade being very contentious, left and right.
  • sm
    sylvain m.
    21 October 2020 @ 14:37
    Can smarter people than me (ie: pretty much everyone) confirm if/which central banks have the authority to launch their digital currency as discussed in this video (ie: consumers having "an account" with central banks). My understanding is the Fed does not have the authority and would require a change in the act to allow to do this but would love confirmation from experts.
    • LS
      L S.
      21 October 2020 @ 15:56
      I would say this is likely to be one of the, or many, options that they finally actualize. Just think of it this way: Within 5-10 years, they will revamp the Act, legitimately or illegitimately. I agree with Pal on this one, and the generic time frame. If you ask him I'd bet he'd tell you he's been early about a lot of things (questionably wrong therefore, talk to Peter Schiff too now lol) so plan for predictions to come true a little longer on the timeline than most think. We are quite good, if savvy, at predicting general trends but usually it takes 2-3x longer the timeframe than we think --- at least that's what I've noticed.
    • sm
      sylvain m.
      21 October 2020 @ 16:27
      thanks I agree with this assessment. I also cannot stop hearing Lacy Hunt in this case: if we start looking at changing the Federal Act, all the rules change.
    • LS
      L S.
      3 November 2020 @ 19:46
      yes sylvain, yes
  • BT
    Bryden T.
    28 October 2020 @ 00:46
    I’m a Bitbull too!
  • JG
    John G.
    27 October 2020 @ 03:09
    I got into BTC around 2015. I love it. But I would love to see a piece on power consumption and BTC. Apparently if what Raoul thinks will take place with BTC, we will need to be building a lot of new power plants. I have heard power consumption for BTC costs about $68 per transaction. If true, this could certainly be a fly in the ointment. That said, I still own it and am thinking of buying more. John
  • PH
    Pat H.
    25 October 2020 @ 23:48
    It is truly sad when you have to be paranoid suspicious of every new thing. I have been conned one too many times. Want to do this right.
  • PH
    Pat H.
    25 October 2020 @ 23:46
    For us crypto dummies, maybe you can comment on your recap Monday?
  • TM
    Tyler M.
    25 October 2020 @ 18:39
    Thanks for doing this. Much appreciated.
  • fd
    fabrice d.
    24 October 2020 @ 18:13
    if the future is digital dollar (no more cash) what’s the point to get gold if you can’t get cash when you sell it?
    • GU
      Greg U.
      25 October 2020 @ 11:53
      You'd still be able to get digital dollars or perhaps exchange it directly.
  • XP
    Xavier P.
    20 October 2020 @ 09:31
    Raoul has gone into the crypto rabbit hole and there is no way to bring him back 😂
    • df
      diamantino f.
      25 October 2020 @ 08:55
      Raoul has been wrong the Dollar, the world needs a weaker dollar to reflate, he still thinks it will go higher,Bitcoin?Dollar?Bitcoin,wrong,right who knows! trade smart invest smarter
  • sc
    steve c.
    20 October 2020 @ 17:39
    Who are the 33 dicks! who don't like this video... I can only presume they do not understand the content..... DICKS!
    • HA
      Hugo A.
      20 October 2020 @ 21:27
      Keynesians who depend on the current status quo and inflexible gold bugs. BTC does not care tho. 12 years not caring.
    • PU
      Peter U.
      21 October 2020 @ 14:16
      keep it clean and respectful
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      22 October 2020 @ 02:47
      They are literally everyone I have spoken to about bitcoin in person over 20 years old for the last 5 years, including 3 economics teachers.
    • RE
      Renato E.
      25 October 2020 @ 08:49
      What is it with all you Crypto supporters? Everybody that disagrees with your view is a boomer, a gold bug or just outright stupid? Be more humble, you sound very young...
  • PW
    Patrick W.
    19 October 2020 @ 21:13
    Could someone please answer to the "Peter Schiff argument", that Bitcoin does not have an intrinsic value like gold has. Basically the value of Bitcoin is only as high as the value the other person puts on it. I can see that Crypto is the future, but what would happen if a new (better) Crypto Currency is founded and everyone rushes into it and by doing so making Bitcoin worthless? Would greatly appreciate an answer. :)
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 October 2020 @ 21:16
      Golds only value is that we have trust in it. All value derives from trust. Bitcoin has a value because we have trust in it. The higher the price goes, the more is has trust.
    • ER
      Emma R.
      19 October 2020 @ 22:03
      I think a key thing about Bitcoin is that it truly decentralized. When Facebook tried to launch Libra, Mark Zuckerberg was called in to be grilled by legislators and bankers around the world. There is no CEO of Bitcoin. It was possible to bootstrap the Bitcoin network and start the proof of work blockchain and then disappear precisely because no one was looking. That can’t be done now and as long as there is a CEO of a blockchain it is not decentralized and is subject to manipulation, corruption and censorship.
    • RR
      Ringo R.
      19 October 2020 @ 22:08
      Gold and silver are also "pretty" and people for a very long time have worn it to look nice (and rich). Plus they are used in industrial processes. Especially Silver where the majority of the annual production is used in industry. So i would not suggest that "Golds only value is that we have trust in it"
    • PD
      Peter D.
      19 October 2020 @ 22:22
      The counter to Schiff's arguments are as follows. Bitcoin has "intrinsic" value which derives from: 1. The fact that it is backed/protected by the world's most powerful computer network. 2. That Bitcoin's "ledger" - an immutable public database - has value. To understand how much value a database can have think Lexis Nexis. 3. Metcalf's Law, which states that with each user, the value of a network rises exponentially, not geometrically. In Bitcoin's case, the growth in individual users is important. But recently, the rise in the network of banks, exchanges, trading houses, storage facilities, corporate and hedge fund holders, all tied together by payment and transfer rails, is far more important. 4. Unlike gold, which - to a significant degree - you can simply dig deeper for and mine more of if the price rises, Bitcoin's money supply is limited. ***** BTW don't think for one minute that Peter Schiff believes his anti-Bitcoin arguments. Like pretty much everyone in the gold community, Schiff knows all of this better than anyone here. There is no such thing as bad publicity: Schiff's been milking the anti-BTC personae for all its work.
    • LS
      L S.
      20 October 2020 @ 00:46
      The intrinsic value is an oddity, since it is mostly specious. You can't eat gold, how many people are going to use it for a circuit or a computer; silver is far more useful from a medical and industrial perspective, so it is a similar class with a history, but a less storied one than gold. This boils down to the fact that like Raoul's answer of "trust" being the best term as a summary, the thing that gold really has is time, or possibly better put, legacy. At a certain point in its infancy, gold was just like bitcoin - which also proves our point when BTC has many different properties that make it SUPERIOR to gold. Especially in the modern day when the "enemy" is far different. Generalized anonymity and portability are crucial in the modern day, and bitcoin shines in these categories, particularly in portability, which may in fact for a lot of people be the greatest benefit of all.
    • GU
      Greg U.
      24 October 2020 @ 18:58
      From an Austrian perspective, there's no such thing as "intrinsic value". All value is subjective. Gold and silver have always had subjective value as jewelry, and often as money. It's unclear, to me, what subjective value BTC would have if exchanges were outlawed so that BTC was driven into the black market. Yes, the same could be done to gold and silver, but I'd hazard a guess that they'd retain far more of their value.
  • ER
    Emma R.
    19 October 2020 @ 21:29
    Irresponsibility long.....
    • GU
      Greg U.
      24 October 2020 @ 18:53
      Pithy!
  • NI
    Nate I.
    19 October 2020 @ 22:32
    I agree that btc can't be banned worldwide due to the regulatory arbitrage you highlighted; however, what if just a few large western countries and China banned it? And by banning it, I'm not talking about some sort of technological solution to ban it that we could debate for hours. I'm just saying they pass a law that says if you get caught buying/selling btc, it's 20 years in prison. Would drug dealers and other outlaws be enough to push the market cap to $11 trillion. I don't think so. Will US citizens move to Uruguay just so they can transact btc? Also doubtful I think. By the way, gold gives me similar worries but gold has industrial uses so that makes a ban more complicated - although not impossible.
    • PD
      Peter D.
      19 October 2020 @ 22:46
      Drug dealers would never use Bitcoin, which can be easily tracked by Chain Surveillance firms. Drug dealers will continue to launder their money the way they always have - through the U.S. and global systemically important banks.
    • RC
      Reuben C.
      20 October 2020 @ 19:50
      @Nate I. - Good point. The possibility of countries agreeing on outlawing/banning bitcoin also concerned me for some time. However, that no longer concerns me because I don't think people would just accept that. People will protest and riot, unless governments somehow manage to sell the idea to everyone that bitcoin is bad. Otherwise, although theoretically yes, they can outlaw bitcoin, i really don't think it is that easy to do. Governments, democratically-elected ones at least, cannot just throw people in prison for 20 years just because they don't like this alternative store of value or because it doesn't fit their monetary policies. You might argue that this actually already happened in 1933 when the US government confiscated gold, so it can happen again. But in reality that time the government, apart from making it illegal for citizens to own gold, it had actually also bought the gold from citizens at a fair price. So even if they had to do the same with bitcoin, at least your investment will not go to zero.
    • GU
      Greg U.
      24 October 2020 @ 18:47
      @Reuben C. In 1933, the government didn't buy gold "at a fair price". They bought it at its then market value, $20, after which it was quickly revalued to $33.
  • LH
    Luis H.
    20 October 2020 @ 00:34
    First the democratization of computing, then the Berlin Wall, next internet, now the end of Fiat. Interesting times to live on.
    • GU
      Greg U.
      24 October 2020 @ 18:42
      If you get CB wallets, you could end up with fiat out the wazoo. Whether that would spell the end of fiat is a good question.
  • RL
    Randy L.
    20 October 2020 @ 01:20
    Raoul, I noticed you did not mention GBTC. What do you think of it?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 October 2020 @ 01:22
      Its fine if you have no other options.
    • TT
      Terry T.
      20 October 2020 @ 05:21
      Raoul, why do you think GBTC is Ok but not GLD for gold? Isn’t it the same sort of proxy?
    • GU
      Greg U.
      24 October 2020 @ 18:29
      @Terry T. They're both proxies, so the question is whether they have clear title to the underlying asset. I haven't seen anyone doubt GBTC on that front, although there's always the possibility they could get hacked. Many writers, though, doubt that GLD has clear title to all the gold it claims to own.
  • JC
    James C.
    20 October 2020 @ 02:48
    How does capital get efficiently allocated without commercial banks? Sounds profoundly disturbing.
    • GU
      Greg U.
      24 October 2020 @ 18:25
      How does it get efficiently allocated WITH them?! :) There would still be entities making loans on behalf of investors. Unfortunately, the central bank might also make loans directly, diluting everyone else in the process--much the same as with loans, grants, and subsidies made by government.
  • PT
    Philip T.
    20 October 2020 @ 14:56
    Raoul confirms the most disturbing trend impacting democracies will be the power grabs of central banks that will increasingly circumvent democratically-elected legislatures. These massive shifts in where power exists typically occur in times of crisis. It will be a true test of the US democracy to see if the three constitutional branches of government can rein in the Federal Reserve, which most feel has already overstepped its mandate with no consequences. Japan is the blueprint for the path to increased power the Fed is likely to follow, unless it is somehow restrained. An unrestrained Fed will likely morph into an uncontrollable entity that years from now our citizenry will regret having been passive about.
    • GU
      Greg U.
      24 October 2020 @ 18:11
      Yes, the Fed has overstepped its mandate. So has government--arguably to an even greater extent--so I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for it to rein in the Fed. The Fed finances all their handouts, so why bite the hand that fills the trough?
  • PB
    Patrick B.
    20 October 2020 @ 21:31
    I sort of see the argument, but not completely buying it. First off, the IMF is US-controlled. Why would the US willingly let go of its reserve currency status? Second, as Raoul himself stated, central banks do not have the legal authority to do any of this (directly create money and deposit into non-bank accounts). I think there would be a revolution in the US if they even tried to do that because of the loss of freedom implicated which Raoul also pointed out. Last, if Bitcoin is declared illegal and possession criminal think cocaine, heroin, etc), how many people will be willing to take that risk? Cockroach it may be, but nobody likes cockroaches, do they?
    • RK
      Rafal K.
      20 October 2020 @ 21:58
      Agree with idea of digital currency and blockchain, I think ideologues fail to understand the degree of government push back such 'libretarian' idea would have. There is no way the Fed or other central banks allow digital currencies outside their circle of power. Just outlaw digital currencies or tax them at double the capital gains, game over.
    • HA
      Hugo A.
      20 October 2020 @ 22:13
      The "declared illegal" argument was new in 2016. We're way past that. Although it is clear that it's quite possible for a government to ban Bitcoin, actually enforcing a ban would provide difficult—if not impossible—in many countries. Unless the government exerts strict control over the Internet, individuals will almost certainly be able to download Bitcoin wallet software, run a node, and complete transactions with little effort. This is evidenced by the fact that there are still a significant number of Bitcoin users in most countries that have already banned it. According to a 2019 report by We Are Social, around 4% of Internet users in Egypt currently own cryptocurrencies, while cryptocurrency market tracking platform CoinMarketCap listed Pakistan as one of its fastest-growing user demographics in Q1 2020. Likewise, even in countries with strict Internet controls, a variety of tools used to bypass these restrictions could render the effort pointless. After all, it is incredibly difficult to enforce a ban on Bitcoin when practically anybody can access the Bitcoin blockchain via the Blockstream satellite using a relatively inexpensive software-defined radio (SDR) dongle and an antenna. The US could enact tighter restrictions for buying and selling BTC, but an outright ban would be impossible to enforce, There's also the question of whether introducing a ban on Bitcoin would simply incentivize people to obtain it, an argument put forward by economist Saifedean Ammous, author of The Bitcoin Standard. His line of reasoning is that a government clampdown on Bitcoin would illustrate that the government in question is seeking to restrict people's financial freedoms, and would serve to highlight the cryptocurrency's usefulness. “If your bank tells you, ‘You can’t buy Bitcoin with your bank account.’ That’s really just an advertisement for Bitcoin,” The ban idea is a myth at this point. You can't whack-a-mole the whole planet, same as p2p torrent networks were never "banned" despite endless attempts since Napster. Bitcoin/BTC is the sewer rat that refuses to die. The current Status Quo legacy financial system is the fragile Bubble Boy in his way out.
    • TA
      Thor A.
      21 October 2020 @ 12:47
      More of a question @Paco N, but if Bitcoin is declared illegal, making it impossible to transfer its value into the Real Economy (at least within G10, say), apart from in the darker parts of the internet, then what exactly is the value of a BTC to the average man in the street? For some it will have a value as a symbol, an off-system way of storing "wealth", but in such a scenario its value surely becomes arbitrary? especially as transferring assets from the Real Economy to BTC (necessary to keep prices going up, surely) would be illegal too?
    • PU
      Peter U.
      21 October 2020 @ 13:51
      That last sentence caused me laugh out loud big time!
    • PB
      Patrick B.
      22 October 2020 @ 18:34
      @Paco: Yes, people can "transact" even if illegal but it creates huge problems. How are legitimate businesses going to report sales/taxes etc if they are accepting a criminally-designated currency? If businesses therefore do not accept it, of what use is it? Just me and Raoul and a few others transacting bitcoin for some Caribbean moonshine rum is not enough to base a new global currency system on.
    • LB
      Lorenzo B.
      24 October 2020 @ 13:58
      You can't wack a mole around the globe, that's true. But if the world is going digital, it means that all legal entities (businesses, consumers, etc.) could be forced into transacting only in certain allowed legal digital tenders within a certain jurisdiction. Yes you can have black/grey currency market, but that usually happens in currency distressed countries. And still in such a case we're talking small-spending, definitely not purchasing real estate properties. I agree all the variables are locked in for a Bitcoin surge being the hardest collateral... Till it maybe no more
    • GU
      Greg U.
      24 October 2020 @ 18:05
      You raise what I think is the central question. Bitcoin has value not because its supply is capped, or because of proof of work, but because it can be exchanged for other things of value, and ultimately fiat. If BTC's market cap reaches the point where it allows people to protect themselves against central bank debasement, circumvent currency controls, and engage in (somewhat) anonymous transactions, then what if the exchanges are simply outlawed? Sure, some might exist as black market entities, but what would forcing BTC underground do to its market cap at that point? Fiat has value because of the state's guns, and gold has always had value as jewelry if nothing else, but it's unclear what ultimately gives BTC the ability to hold most of its value.
  • CF
    Christopher F.
    19 October 2020 @ 22:24
    Excellent talk! Thank you for sharing so openly. I've been using Raoul's arguments to convince friends and family to buy bitcoin. What I still don't fully understand is what happens once all 21 million coins are mined. Will the incentives for miners to keep processing transactions be enough without getting the rewards of new bitcoin? Or will there be a new way for miners to make money without dismantling their operations?
    • sc
      sung c.
      20 October 2020 @ 02:39
      My understanding is that it will take over 100 years to get there, so for the next 10 years, I'm not worried about that. I'm more concerned if BTC can indeed get beyond the previous ATH and start the next 110K-200K as we all hope.
    • sc
      sung c.
      20 October 2020 @ 03:21
      Forgot to mention, of course if you are truly worried about that, just don't buy BTC for another 100 years, when it's either worth 0 or $1,000,000,000
    • CF
      Christopher F.
      20 October 2020 @ 18:27
      42% of my liquid portfolio is in bitcoin and I plan to pass it down to my kids in 50 years. I'm not really worried about it now, I just don't understand how the economics of bitcoin will continue once the 21 million limit is reached.
    • JO
      Jan O.
      24 October 2020 @ 16:39
      Remember that Bitcoin miners get paid in two ways today: the fees you pay them for every transaction AND the mining reward. Once we reach 21 million, the mining rewards will be gone. The fees will still be around, and if Bitcoin is a huge success, those fees will be enough to keep the miners around since each Bitcoin's value will probably be huge at that point. It's the same mechanism that keeps the miners mining today even if they got a bigger reward in the number of BTC per block before the last halving. If BTC goes up in value, they get more value even if the number of BTC per block goes down. If BTC's value goes down, the miners with the highest cost go bankrupt and will be flushed out. This reduces the network capacity, which lowers the mining difficulty and leaves more BTC fees/rewards available for the survivors. The self-correcting and self-sustaining mechanism in Bitcoin is a real piece of art. I recommend all to read the original whitepaper: https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
  • DS
    David S.
    22 October 2020 @ 07:45
    Mr. Pal, Thank you for an excellent presentation. I also believe in Bitcoin, but I am not ready to pull the trigger until the insolvency phase forces many market adjustments. I am a revenue guy. Without revenue nothing good happens. After the elections, I see the possibility of many insolvencies as you are projecting when business and family revenues plummet. Like both you and Mr. Gundlach I am expecting better shopping days ahead for Bitcoin, Gold, Stocks and Land. Nearing 75 I might see the world differently from most of you. As for now, I am holding on to cash to see what will happen when the insolvency phase is taken seriously by the markets The pandemic will drive insolvencies to a depression level. I may be completely wrong, but I am 90% in US dollars waiting for a real downturn. If the insolvency phase begins, I will be able to average down my gold position and balance with stocks and Bitcoin. The only good news is my current revenues exceeds my current expenses. I will be solvent in an insolvent world. Not the worse place to be. I hope we do not go too far down the rabbit hole. So many people will be hurt. So many families will be damaged. You are doing your best to get the work out. I hope people listen and act. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      22 October 2020 @ 15:12
      Sorry. You are doing your best to get the word out. DLS
    • GM
      Gavin M.
      23 October 2020 @ 02:50
      DLS...as a founding member of Real Vision I have seen your comments many times over the years. They are always very thoughtful and classy. I always learn from your insights. Thank you!
    • DS
      David S.
      23 October 2020 @ 06:14
      Gavin M. - Thank you for your kind words and encouragement. I am sincere in my comments. I am not trying to persade, but show a possible viewpoint. For me the more viewpoints you have the better a person can see the big picture. Good investing to all of you. DLS
    • LB
      Lorenzo B.
      24 October 2020 @ 13:38
      Dear David, I'm not 75 (38 to be precise) but I'm in the exact, specular situation as you describe. Liquid, revenues still exceed expenses, waiting for that "Gundlach" twist. Yet I'm aware that my current choice is definitely a speculative bet, and that makes me tremble a bit from time to time.
  • FL
    Fabrizio L.
    21 October 2020 @ 07:02
    I found the first half of the video really interesting. The second part is a powerful bitcoin sales pitch by an ex Goldman sales guy. So I ask myself why is he pitching bitcoin so hard? what's in it for him or for his business? Where is the conflict of interests that characterises every WS sales pitch? When I think of Raoul's talk with Jeffrey Gundlach and how he changed the subject when he did not endorse bitcoin, and how the bitcoin subject keeps coming up with everyone on realvision, I think that maybe realvision is to bitcoin what cnbc is to stocks? Maybe realvision as a business has chosen this path to expand into a global media business? good for them! Whatever the case I love many of the interviews, great content, great team, I just don't listen to bitcoin broadcasting, because it obviously is, in my opinion, the bitter pill to swallow to get all the other good stuff! I will buy some bitcoin when nobody talks about it for a while. Keep the good stuff going :-) thanks
    • JL
      J L.
      21 October 2020 @ 15:31
      you do have a point
    • LS
      L S.
      21 October 2020 @ 16:00
      I said the exact same thing to a friend, and I actually agree with Pal on Bitcoin and have for some time. You can't deny though, that he and others with this platform and audience truly do stand to gain by pumping it, regardless of whether you believe he is AS authentic as he puts on. Here's the best point and where Gundlach is wrong though; they are coming after him. This culture and stupid central/leftist covetousness absolutely wants to go after and hate "rich people." Gundlach benefited from the old system, and thus has a hard time thinking newly about things. He better understand that preserving capital is much harder in this day and age (inflation, confiscation), so you better be in something like BTC. They're coming for you, Jeffrey.
    • EC
      Edward C.
      21 October 2020 @ 16:22
      With all due respect I find the comments above a little crass and shallow in relation the the pitch. I do not know Raoul personally but from following him for some time, he appears honest in his framework, thought process, delivery and positioning. He has been clear on his BTC positioning. He’s putting money where his mouth is - and he’s not going to make the money he wants to on this by some retail pump and dump. He’s getting into it with a view of institutions to follow. Very different game. Although BTC not a significant market cap, it’s not exactly a 100 mm micro cap mining stock either. I don’t think the readers here will be moving it with PA.....look at how Micro Strategy got in. I massively value Raouls videos, both here as well as MI. Learning experience despite over 15 years in the industry. Anyway, I am in no way here to be disrespectful. I just think the man deserves a bit of a defense here as he massively values educating the average punter, all of whom should be at least paying attention whether in agreement or not. Cheers
    • FL
      Fabrizio L.
      21 October 2020 @ 18:57
      Edward, this channel is better than ANY other financial broadcasting channel I have come across. 20 years round the block make me diffident by default. this posture made loose great trades and made me survive and prosper. I focus on the latter two. pitching something implies taking a risk; smart people need to be paid to take risks, and Mr. Pal is way smarter than me. So if I ask where his risk trade-off is, let me dissent with you, its neither crass nor shallow, its just a question. Maybe an uncomfortable one but legitimate, after all we are in democracy here!
    • EC
      Edward C.
      22 October 2020 @ 07:02
      Fair enough Sir....and I realise tone is often missed in writing as opposed to discussion. Good luck out there.
    • PB
      Patrick B.
      22 October 2020 @ 18:40
      I get the exact same feeling and is one of the reasons I have not opted for any of the pricier content. I do not know if I'm just going to get more sales pitches on BC or more of the good stuff. In any case, I did not subscribe to RV for BC but the BC obsession may make me leave.
    • RE
      Renato E.
      24 October 2020 @ 10:14
      You nailed it! This is the reason why I didn't log in to RV for a very long time as I think the BTC pumping is beyond ridiculous. Before you BTC fan boys come after me: I own BTC too, but if it really is the way-to-go solution, then it doesn't need this pumping - not from a platform that tries to distinguish themselves from the rest of the financial media anyway. Cover the topic, but not like this. Maybe that is the reason why Grant left.
  • MF
    Michael F.
    20 October 2020 @ 02:57
    Raoul: I'm not a bitcoin hater nor am I an enthusiast. I'd like to own some and have immediate questions - how does one buy and hold it safely? I'm in the IT world and knew a few bitcoin miners - they all claimed to own some bitcoins but later told me someone striped them of their bitcoins - in essence they claimed that they were stolen. So, in my mind bitcoins present many issues for a person like me to deal with before I can even consider buy a cryptocurrency. - how do you buy and securely hold them? - where can you buy them? - how do you sell them? - a bitcoin today is worth about $12,000 US - that is a fairly large amount of value. Most of society doesn't have the wealth to own even one of them. How can that be usable? How do you pay the plumber, baker, mechanic or dentist with it? Can the distributed ledger that underpins bitcoin actually deal with buying a gallon of milk and a loaf of bread? Thanks!
    • RE
      Rodolfo E.
      20 October 2020 @ 03:17
      Buy them through Gemini.com or Coinbase.com and in that way your funds will be safe. Also, you can buy any amount (1, 2, 3, 10, 100, 1000... USD) of BTC. You don´t need to buy a unit, you can buy any fraction you wish to.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      20 October 2020 @ 04:20
      Don’t store your crypto on Gemini or Coinbase - buy a Ledger cold wallet. They are easy to use - there are tutorials on YouTube. Buy your ledger only from the company direct, don’t use a reseller (even Amazon).
    • MF
      Michael F.
      24 October 2020 @ 04:30
      Thanks to Rodolfo & Alistair! I clearly have much to learn.
  • RL
    Randy L.
    20 October 2020 @ 01:11
    How do you guys view GBTC? It is an ETF that provides some BTC exposure.
    • BM
      Brook M.
      21 October 2020 @ 05:47
      It's an expensive way to get BTC exposure. The premium is large. It's not THAT difficult to buy your BTC from a reputable exchange and even a dummy like me (age 68, not too tech savvy) has figured out how to transfer my BTC from the exchange to a hard wallet. If you do a little research (YouTube) you can find videos that show you how to do it.
    • SB
      Salvatore B.
      23 October 2020 @ 19:39
      It isn't perfect because of the premium and fees, but I like it for my roth IRA where I can't get BTC access but would like to benefit from the tax advantages for some of my BTC allocation.
  • JL
    J L.
    21 October 2020 @ 02:49
    Great stuff. A couple observations: 1) China is driving the competitive development among nations here. CBDCs are like the new space race. As the USSR was to Sputnik, the CCP is to the digital yuan. China already has a beta rollout that has just gone to 50,000 users. Other nations are in fear that China will get too far ahead. 2) The big impacts here are not monetary policy, they are fiscal policy. It is Modern Monetary Theory in hyperform. That means the driver here will be politicians, not central banks. The Federal Reserve will defer to Treasury on the big details here in terms of how money gets spent, and Treasury will defer to congress. The Fed will be a conduit for implementing CBDC spending measures authorized by congress, e.g. customized tax policies, spending credits with expiration dates, and so on. The Fed would not want the political heat for authorizing direct spending, and congress will want to call the shots in terms of who gets how much on what terms. 3) The implications of 2) are that central banks will not actually drive this, nor will they want to. Central banks will prefer to be the dumb pipe, working in coordination with Treasury, as policy makers decide what fiscal actions to undertake. This is the dawn of 21st century fiscal, basically. 4) The social credit and micro-management aspect of CBDCs will not come right away because the technology is not yet there. It is the Ethereum problem and the "not ready for prime time" DeFi problem. There will be a lot, lot of bugs yet to solve before a CBDC is actually technologically advanced enough to, say, send tax payments only to laborers with incomes below $30,000 a year or offer spendable credits with an expiration date. 5) If CBDCs start to fulfill their promise, there won't be a need for negative interest rates, in the U.S. or anywhere else. The Europe experience has shown they don't really work, and in fact they tend to destroy the banking system. If you have transfer payment capability through CBDCs and a willing government, meanwhile, you don't need negative rates at all. You can just spot-target money to specific groups. You could even spot-target different lending rates, e.g. small businesses of a certain size can borrow with embedded tax rates and big corporations can't. With that kind of granularity, the blunt instrument of negative rates is not needed. 6) A USD short squeeze implies a loss of policy control. It still isn't clear why this has to happen, particularly if the US kicks off a new multi-trillion fiscal program in 2021. At the same time, the more functional the international transfer system becomes, the easier it will become to transfer undesirable dollar-denominated assets into desirable non-dollar assets, like debt-for-equity stakes in emerging market companies. The USD short squeeze threat is also existential in the manner that Y2K was existential, which reduces the odds of its occurrence: The powers that be will be so intently focused on it, it becomes less likely to happen.
    • JC
      Jason C.
      21 October 2020 @ 21:28
      Really good poast. I disagree regarding point 4, however. Smart contracts may be difficult, but CBs will not have a lot of Ethereum's issues because CBs don't have to contend with the decentralization ethos that Ethereum was founded on. ETH is essential a DCBDC (De-Centralized Bank Digital Currency), and that's why the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade must include things like sharding. This is where the technical challenges for Ethereum lie, as far as I can tell.
    • JL
      J L.
      21 October 2020 @ 23:55
      @ Jason C -- Excellent point. I hadn't considered that CBDCs can skip the decentralized ledger hurdles because they aren't "true" cryptos, which lowers the technical hurdles significantly. You're right, that suggests they can probably iterate much faster than ETH and DeFi then...
  • MO
    Megan O.
    21 October 2020 @ 23:50
    Thank you for distributing this video so quickly - fascinating. In light of the steady rise in Bitcoin since Monday, would love a flash update on BTC and the market dynamics this week following on from Powell's speech. I listened to the DB this week and there was some BTC discussion but not a direct follow-on from this piece (please let me know if I missed something) which I would love.
  • HA
    Hugo A.
    20 October 2020 @ 18:16
    Gold failed before. I don't understand why gold fans think it won't fail this time, while having the exact same limitations. Gold is difficult to store and verify for an individual, it gets naturally centralized in a few locations. These few locations can then be attacked by the state (or anyone else), and this is exactly how the gold standard ended. Due to gold's physical nature, the emergence of a black market is difficult, and the transfer of wealth (or the trade) across borders is almost impossible. Bitcoin solves these problems. You can store as much Bitcoin as you want in your head by remembering your private key, and you can verify all Bitcoin you receive inexpensively by running a full node. These two key points help keep Bitcoin decentralized. This means that centralized points of attack for the state or anyone else are close to non-existent. Because of its digital nature, sending it across a border is easy, and the emergence of a black market (a parallel economy) is possible. Bitcoin was created to succeed in exactly the adversarial environment where gold has failed. Gold needs a benevolent state and a huge infrastructure to succeed because you cannot verify and store it by yourself; Bitcoin does not need any of those things. For these reasons, Bitcoin is the only technology that allows you to claim your monetary sovereignty and liberty—something gold will never be able to do.
    • LS
      L S.
      21 October 2020 @ 16:12
      I've been contemplating these points (and own a small amount of gold) for a few years now, and they are absolutely, 100% true and important to understand. Even as a relatively insignificant citizen, we have laws from the 1970s that haven't changed regarding moving $10k in the USA, here or there or as precious metals or as cash --- it is ridiculous. The portability issue is so much more important that anyone can possibly fathom. If the shit hits the fan, and you need to move, gold does you little to nothing (except possibly locally). Great stuff, Paco.
  • JR
    Josh R.
    20 October 2020 @ 20:32
    Raoul or RV members. I saw Raoul mention a hardware wallet recently however I can’t find where it was mentioned. What was the wallet Raoul referred to for storing crypto?
    • HA
      Hugo A.
      20 October 2020 @ 20:40
      Best hardware wallet is Coldcard. See coldcardwallet.com I have nothing to do with them but have most popular wallets (Trezor, Ledger, Cobo, Coldcard) and the Coldcard mk3 is the best... more features (secure bacups to encrypted microSD, etc). If you want to secure your Bitcoin (BTC) that is probably the best bet.
    • LS
      L S.
      21 October 2020 @ 16:06
      Paco, have you ever tried to "transfer" your BTC by "stealing" it from yourself = using the private key (your 24 words or whatever your key is)? This is the point about why BTC and hardware wallets are so amazing with portability, you literally don't need anything but the underlying seed/code. I'm wondering if anyone has physically done this yet, though. That is, have you said, "I don't like ledger nano X anymore, I want to just start using coldcard or ngrave,etc" and you just use the seed to recover your BTC that was formerly accessed on the ledger nano? Thanks.
  • CB
    Clifford B.
    20 October 2020 @ 22:58
    The share number of likes this video has compared to other videos on the platform makes me fearful of BTC as an asset. (Its more akin to a cult/bubble). That said, sure I have traded it and done well. Would I "hodl" it for eternity I think not. Until the turning point where BTC is globally accepted for business transactions, the Achilles heel will still be swift/bank conversion system. For those who think 'this time is different .' Its not. Government and central banks will reign. For BTC to win this race will require all out hard war, at which point none us us will "win". Bullets and canned goods will be currency long before BTC will be a reserve asset.
    • AA
      Aymman A.
      21 October 2020 @ 01:56
      I think your concerns are premature. BTC does not even begin to threaten the central banks before its market capitalization reaches 1 trillion (BTC of about $100,000). So we are in a honeymoon phase. I think the glide path to 100K is easy. After that let’s see if your concerns pan out. Mean time what objection can anyone have to making 10X ?
    • CP
      Chamil P.
      21 October 2020 @ 03:53
      People and companies like Microstrategy and Square are already using it as a reserve asset in their portfolios. Central Banks are only now thinking of creating their own digital wallets and payment rails. If BTC adoption continues to grow whilst CBs drag their heels, then as Aymman A mentioned we will see a lot more growth before any real action is taken by authorities. By then it may be too late.
    • LS
      L S.
      21 October 2020 @ 16:03
      I totally agree with Aymman. If you go down to the original comments even for this video, you'll find that there are a ton of people still clueless in how to procure even a single BTC. It's early, it will probably take longer than we expect, but when it does start surging every idiot will be screaming, "That was so obvious, why didn't I do XYZ???"
  • MJ
    Marc J.
    20 October 2020 @ 08:12
    Anyone else think Satoshi Nakamoto was a time traveller?
    • PU
      Peter U.
      21 October 2020 @ 14:29
      no question . . . he'll be back . . . to see how his "joke" has played out! LL&P
  • MB
    Michael B.
    20 October 2020 @ 08:13
    Where is the red head at the end?
    • AA
      Andrew A.
      20 October 2020 @ 08:17
      Poor taste my friend....
    • PU
      Peter U.
      21 October 2020 @ 14:28
      omg, lol
  • AM
    Alonso M.
    20 October 2020 @ 14:28
    And here I was thinking the cockroaches that can't be killed are the Federal Reserve and its sibling cockroaches known as the BOJ and ECB. Big mean brown cockroaches with wings. Scary critters.
    • PU
      Peter U.
      21 October 2020 @ 14:19
      You are giving cockroaches a bad name or worse.
  • AC
    Andrea C.
    21 October 2020 @ 13:47
    PayPal allowing its clients to use bitcoin starting from early 2021. PayPal has about 300m clients worldwide
  • AI
    Andras I.
    20 October 2020 @ 08:37
    Why was this so urgent? Just the usual sales pitch for BTC.
    • AK
      Andrew K.
      20 October 2020 @ 13:17
      I don't think you hear the thesis "central banks will get rid of intermediaries (commercial banks) and go direct to consumer" that often, do you? At least that doesn't sound like a "usual sales pitch for BTC" to me, and I've heard many.
    • AI
      Andras I.
      20 October 2020 @ 16:17
      @Andrew K. Not to discount that idea as I agree it's one of the most important developments - but to answer your question: It's been well covered in Hendry X Werner interview (that Raoul credits in this video) for one but it has been mentioned elsewhere on RV. It's certainly not a new idea and nothing that happened suddenly yesterday. Contrary to your suggestion, I did not imply there was no value at all in Raoul's thought process - of course there were many points and sometimes it's worth chaining up the same ideas in a different way. (and now the) But...prior to publishing this video there was an email, FinTwit/FinTube fire storm - #brettonwoods, not to mention keeping Coconut girl awake that suggested something a bit more time sensitive, so to say: urgent! "When Raoul Pal records a 35-minute video late on a Sunday night and tells you it's incredibly important the team turns it around in less than 24 hrs, you know it's something important..." That's all.
    • Nv
      Nick v.
      21 October 2020 @ 07:46
      This one isn’t for RV members only.
  • dl
    donald l.
    19 October 2020 @ 23:34
    Sorry, Raoul, but I must disagree with your Bitcon thesis. First, it is competing with the perfect reserve asset par excellence - Gold! At the 'big boy' table where the new 'reset' system will be agreed, the critical commodity in shortest supply will be TRUST! And Nothing will be Trusted other than Gold. It's why most CB's hold gold in reserve, and some have been massively buying it because they well know what is coming, and they will be at that decision table. (China/Russia/India etc). Second, why will there be another reserve asset required, other than gold? A great deal of CB energy has already been invested in Gold, for good and well tested reasons, over a long period of time. Gold wasn't taken out of the monetary system because it failed its duty, but rather the opposite, and the corrupt debt based fiat proponents couldn't run their corrupt ponzie program with gold as the foundation, because it acts as the fiat policeman, and is an anti corruption asset with no counter party. And also it seems to me that Bitcon has a fatal flaw. By design it takes a tremendous amount of energy to mine and run it, and that is increasing exponentially. That will at some point be recognized, and will cause its downfall. Another aspect which supports Gold as the foundational monetary reserve is that it is already widely held throughout the world, and that greatly adds to its power to regulate the financial system as the reserve asset. Just a few thoughts for your consideration.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 October 2020 @ 23:45
      I own gold, physically in storage, as you know but I’ll take the risk and bet big on bitcoin.
    • AM
      Alexander M.
      19 October 2020 @ 23:52
      Donald, the environment of pristine places on earth pays dearly for the excavation of gold. Not to diminish the need for electricity but with modern technology hopefully it will become climate friendly in the mining of bitcoin. There would be less use of oil, less poisoning of rivers and less pressure on the ever decreasing numbers of indigenous peoples and animals left on our planet, all in the search for gold.
    • TE
      Tom E.
      20 October 2020 @ 00:09
      Gold being widely held is quite debatable! As is any notion of monetary systems going back to a gold anchor.
    • RR
      Ringo R.
      20 October 2020 @ 00:45
      @Tom E: I am pretty sure that every adult or at least household I know owns some gold. All be it in the form of jewelry.
    • JM
      John M.
      20 October 2020 @ 02:09
      Alexander M. "the environment of pristine places on earth pays dearly for the" production of electricity - which Bitcoin requires.
    • JK
      Jake K.
      20 October 2020 @ 02:14
      Gold in a vault can be seized. Bitcoin can be transported cross borders in your head.
    • BC
      Bryan C.
      20 October 2020 @ 06:05
      Check out the Kinesis Monetary system (kinesis.money). Being a long time gold/silver bug and relatively new Bitcoin investor, the Kinesis system seems to solve it all. 1:1 allocated gold/silver digitised on a Stellar blockchain and with yields paid to users ... awesome. Indeed liquid funds through a debit card loaded with gold/silver seems like the ultimate solution?
    • HA
      Hugo A.
      20 October 2020 @ 18:14
      Gold failed before. I don't understand why gold fans think it won't fail this time, while having the exact same limitations. Gold is difficult to store and verify for an individual, it gets naturally centralized in a few locations. These few locations can then be attacked by the state (or anyone else), and this is exactly how the gold standard ended. Due to gold's physical nature, the emergence of a black market is difficult, and the transfer of wealth (or the trade) across borders is almost impossible. Bitcoin solves these problems. You can store as much Bitcoin as you want in your head by remembering your private key, and you can verify all Bitcoin you receive inexpensively by running a full node. These two key points help keep Bitcoin decentralized. This means that centralized points of attack for the state or anyone else are close to non-existent. Because of its digital nature, sending it across a border is easy, and the emergence of a black market (a parallel economy) is possible. Bitcoin was created to succeed in exactly the adversarial environment where gold has failed. Gold needs a benevolent state and a huge infrastructure to succeed because you cannot verify and store it by yourself; Bitcoin does not need any of those things. For these reasons, Bitcoin is the only technology that allows you to claim your monetary sovereignty and liberty—something gold will never be able to do.
    • FR
      FLAVIO R.
      21 October 2020 @ 01:14
      Just on energy, energy prices are going down. The trend is always your friend. Certainly energy will not cause any problems for BTC.
  • FR
    FLAVIO R.
    21 October 2020 @ 01:08
    Proper content, thank you. Raoul, i will show this video to my kid in 9 years time and tell him Mr. RP made daddy buy an extra Bitcoin for his 18th Birthday! Bitcoin bullish does not does justice to how explosive this investment could be. Mahalo
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    19 October 2020 @ 22:24
    I have read that there are something between $1Trillion and $2Trillion held as dollar cash (mostly $100 bills) outside the US, where people hold them as protection against their own country's currency. So if these bills are de-monetized, what happens to these dollar holders? If they deposit them in their local banks, they will be converted to the local currency and their value lost. There may be some who just hold onto them and keep using them in preference to other options, but it seems to me that this would cause a great amount of (additional) rage against the US, primarily among the well-to-do in other countries, although probably not so much among the ultra-wealthy. People in Argentina who hold several hundred thousand in US cash with the intention of buying a house, people in Venezuela who now largely transact in US currency, people in Turkey who are desperate to hold a store of value against the collapse of the lira, etc. I realize that the US government will probably take a "screw them" attitude toward such dollar holders, but I suspect that the blowback from such an attitude may be worse than they expect. Or do we expect that every CBDC would be useable around the world? That people in any country would be able to transact in whatever CBDC they want? I don't think so! In any case, there are a lot of details to be worked out, and I foresee the potential for a lot of blowback and unintended consequences.
    • DW
      David W.
      20 October 2020 @ 17:59
      Someone who knows what they're talking about please please reply to this
    • HM
      Hazvinei M.
      21 October 2020 @ 00:46
      Regarding the USD cash held by individuals, you better believe its a big risk for the holders. Look at when India retired certain bank notes, it gave a time window and had some policy goals (substantiate provenance above certain totals), and there was mega disruption to people. You better believe that local governments wouldn't be aiming to have their citizens secure max value for the USD notes, rather they are likely to demand surrender to them in return for their own issued digital currency and they secure the direct conversion value of the cash to digital on a sovereign to sovereign basis, meaning they get the delta and able to rent seek. CBDC will likely be tied to national identifications and that means extraterritorial application of financial controls, meaning an Argentine couldn't open a digital wallet with the Fed to convert paper USD to digital USD, only way is to go to Argentine CB to get digital wallet and they give you access to digital USD on their terms. The digital wallets will be interoperable like the VISA/MC/AMEX networks with home level managing your wallet value and authorization. You don't want to be caught out holding paper currency into the digital conversion.
  • BH
    Ben H.
    20 October 2020 @ 17:44
    If this kills SWIFT and stable coins, where does all this leave ripple and XRP? Could their tech be used to facilitate the new payments system?
    • CH
      Crag H.
      20 October 2020 @ 21:11
      It leaves Ripple where it's always been: In the "Avoid at all cost" bin. Stay out and far away.
    • HA
      Hugo A.
      20 October 2020 @ 21:26
      Ripple has been dead since 2017 and not coming back. A pre-mined scam.
  • AP
    Alejandro P.
    20 October 2020 @ 11:59
    Raoul in your next bitcoin talk can you go into more detail as to how BTC and it’s centrally governing bitcoin core developers, more specifically Adam Back and Gregory Maxwell are preparing BTC to handle the translations of the world while keeping the network capped and doing only 4-7 transactions per second. I would love to know your thoughts.
    • AK
      Andrew K.
      20 October 2020 @ 13:21
      I can answer that: BTC is not designed (and likely was never even though of that way by Satoshi) as a system to pay for your coffee. It is going to work as an international settlement system (say, similar to what SWIFT does now), and for that 10 transactions a second is plenty. By that time most retail investors will lose (sell) their BTC positions :)
    • AP
      Alejandro P.
      20 October 2020 @ 13:40
      Andrew, I will respond to your reply this way.....Bitcoin: A Peer to Peer Electronic Cash System by S. Nakamoto. Don’t let all these rich guys perpetuate your confirmation bias. BTC will not scale and everyone with a brain thats invested in it is just riding a wave and will surely pump and dump it until the real bitcoin takes over. Do your own research and you will come to see which is the real bitcoin. Not BTC, not BCH.
    • SW
      Sarah W.
      20 October 2020 @ 14:45
      Alejandro, nobody cares for shit coin cash or XRP, mon ami. You and me won’t be transacting on chain. The exchanges will be the banks, we’ll open wallets (accounts) with the exchanges and our individual transactions will be stored via an SQL database. The exchanges will then settle balances between one another on chain, whilst making a pretty profit from transaction fees, regardless of how micro they are. Argument over.
    • HA
      Hugo A.
      20 October 2020 @ 17:52
      The old myth of Blockstream centralization. This was old in 2016, it's old now. Why do the big blockers keep repeating this nonsense. There is only one Bitcoin - BTC. Scams forked out of it are irrelevant (both in hashrate and network effect/Metcalfe's law)
    • CH
      Crag H.
      20 October 2020 @ 21:08
      @Alejandro: I can only assume you're referring to BSV, and all I can say is that I'm sorry for your loss. To others out there: BSV is utterly ridiculous from a technical perspective and backed by fraudsters and scammers. Avoid at all cost.
  • AV
    Andrej V.
    19 October 2020 @ 21:35
    Thanks for another great video Raoul! Why is Bitcoin the holy grail of the crypto value proposition? I keep battling with the idea that even though BTC has a finite supply, there is a potentially infinite supply of cryptocurrencies out there! Is there a video in the crypto series explaining this? Gold you can't print...if you want leverage and can stomach the volatility then get silver, which has a loose monetary character and also will be needed to help circuit all these digital solutions of tomorrow (I know I'm sounding like a typical PM bug now). Why does BTC specifically have an edge over hard assets and all the other cryptocurrencies in this regard? It will appreciate, but isn't there limited upside when it becomes just another (crypto)currency in a sea of other (crypto)currencies that are mutually exchangeable like FX? I understand that the central bank cryptos will be transactional in that regard more like FX, but you can potentially have thousands/ millions of these value preserving cryptocurrencies that will surely dilute their overall value, no? I found the discussion with Marc Cohodes fascinating around tokenization and what OSTK and its subsidiaries are doing in that space...looks like a destination for a lot of speculative money flow in the future, but also some actual exciting opportunities. Gaming tokens coming into the world of fintech and investment, gotta love it! Thanks for the great content, as always!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 October 2020 @ 21:37
      These are great questions. I'd suggest reading The Bitcoin Standard that answers all of these and should help frame things well.
    • TS
      Tor S.
      19 October 2020 @ 21:39
      This one. It should ansver your questions https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CETdBZIXhPo&t=190s
    • TS
      Tor S.
      19 October 2020 @ 22:24
      Or this one ( the video interview with Michael Saylor. one of the best explanations i have seen, and i have seen / read many. https://youtu.be/fSPLshChpzw
    • PB
      Paolo B.
      20 October 2020 @ 05:58
      T0 is very interesting, but is different. It is only a platform, medium with open boundaries. BTC instead is un-destroyable immaterial scarce and portable. It is a store of value (an electronic precious), as well as a medium of payment. Scarcity is by construction. The curve of scarcity is growing over time again by construction. The diffusion one though much much faster. It is the antimatter of fiat money therefore the ultimate safe.
    • AV
      Andrej V.
      20 October 2020 @ 20:37
      Watched Michael Saylor on Hedgeye...I have to say the argument gets weaker. A lot of emotion, a lot of HODL, a lot of "30 years from now"...not only does it pale to the risk management approach advocated by Hedgeye, it lacks any of the crucial answers that I would need to consider this gold 2.0. Saying that gold can depreciate 88% over the next century while thinking BTC will be here to pass value is a lack of fundamental understanding on some many levels...starting with the fact that if they are both assets that capture inflation and store value due to constrained supply, both would suffer equally, but that would happen only in a non-expanding monetary base system! A silicon valley guy that disguises as macro expert...but actually doesn't show nearly the level of fundamental macro understanding, let alone risk management. Don't see how a different cryptocurrency can't dethrone it. Don't see what the utility is with the competition from CB coins. Don't see why different tech can't replace it. Will keep looking more in depth, but not convinced at all by Mr. Saylor though. All I see is a guy who is $420mio in the hole and needs someone to bail him out from his entry price of $11,111.
  • CB
    Carl B.
    20 October 2020 @ 19:57
    I love that bitcoin is now central to financial discussion. I've been in crypto for four years and have watched it's prominence grow in this way. One thing that could be more emphasised: the bitcoin network only functions because hobbyists around the world (somewhere between 10000 to 50000 of them) run a full node. If you're reading this and are keen on bitcoin I think you should considering running the software. You need a mostly always-on computer or server with 500gig plus of HD space...
  • RM
    Rory M.
    19 October 2020 @ 21:32
    Big Bitcoin, Ethereum, Polkadot and Defi fan in general. However...18 + of the 21 million BTC is already minted with 4 odd million minimum lost forever and most of the remaining 14 million is Hodled.....so my question (to which I've never had a good answer): Aren't we just creating a new <<<< 1% super class to replace the old one ?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 October 2020 @ 21:33
      Sat's are worth a lot in the future too...
    • PR
      Paul R.
      19 October 2020 @ 22:52
      I’ll have a go at an answer - We’re not creating another 1% class as they already exist, and will (probably) make the transition into Bitcoin at some point and maintain their 1% status. Early adopters will be rewarded no doubt. Bitcoin wont offer a fresh start, but it does offer future generations (especially those on lower incomes, without traditional assets) the chance to own something that is immune to being inflated away.
    • CB
      Carl B.
      20 October 2020 @ 19:54
      Yes a new 1% will be created. But within the confines of a set-in-stone monetary policy, which cannot be interfered with by a small cabal of humans (it would take a consensus by the majority of those running a node for it to be changed). That's still a MAJOR improvement on the current setup.
  • CB
    Chris B.
    20 October 2020 @ 19:42
    Raoul, thank you as a very thought provoking piece. Very helpful for my on-going internal debate about how much to allocate to gold and bitcoin. Also, very entertaining. Still LMAO over the statement "Bitcoin is the cockroach in finance..."
  • NS
    Nathan S.
    20 October 2020 @ 14:41
    There's just one issue: there is a bottleneck in bitcoin's transaction processing capacity. It may work as a storage of value for some time, but Bitcoin don't scale very well, that's why there are so many hard forks (such as Bitcoin CASH). The transaction costs (and delays) are a real issue as they could potentially exceed the value of the exchange. In addition, Bitcoins need to be safely and phyically stored: it can be stolen, like gold. Bitcoins may prevail (if not ETH or any other) but in the end some institution will just create paper over it to facilitate exchange. What will we have won?
    • HA
      Hugo A.
      20 October 2020 @ 17:50
      Bitcoin scales fine, it's not a payment system (we have Visa and others for that, work great). Forks like Bcash do not solve anything. Bitcoin is a settlement layer to protect savings, you don't want the most secure network in the world to buy coffee and groceries Anything else (like fast payment networks) can be built on top of it, using the Lighting Network for example. Bitcoin is Layer 1, like the base of the internet, TCP/IP. You build whatever you want on top of it (HTTP, SMTP, etc).. Bitcoin already won.
    • JL
      Julien L.
      20 October 2020 @ 18:11
      I don't believe Bitcoin has to scale up to the level of current payment systems to be adopted and useful. Is gold a payment system ? Not so much... Yet it is still very interesting as a store of wealth. Paper bitcoin could be useful, if its not diluted, what would we have won ? A hard backed money ? Sounds good to me !
  • RX
    Robert X.
    20 October 2020 @ 11:04
    Don’t underestimate the ability of the government to go after Bitcoin. They will go after the exchanges where the average Joe holds his / her coins. I am not going to hold in cold storage, I forget my YouTube password once a week, so I need the exchange / wallet - which leaves me at the whim of the govt.
    • HA
      Hugo A.
      20 October 2020 @ 17:54
      Sure. Same as they killed torrents with centralized global attacks and these days no one downloads movies, games, music on p2p networks anymore. Oh... wait. BTC can't be killed anymore. That ship has sailed. If one Gov bans it, the next will accept it due to mere greed and game theory.
  • JB
    Jeff B.
    20 October 2020 @ 17:37
    Raoul, thank you. This is the first time that I "kind of" got it. Technically I always knew blockchain was a game changer, but I didn't understand enough about the monetary system to see value in "another" type of currency. Now I see that Bitcoin will be a great store of value at a minimum, and when demand develops, a possible rocket ship to wealth. Thanks for making this kind of knowledge accessible. Brilliant.
  • KN
    Kevin N.
    20 October 2020 @ 17:28
    ALL ABOARD THE HYPE TRAIN BOYS! CHOO CHOO!
  • HA
    Hugo A.
    20 October 2020 @ 16:48
    One of the best videos in RV in a long time. Fantastic fluid talk. It's impressive seeing how Raoul had the vision to realize Bitcoin (BTC) is the best way to invest and protect your wealth.... 12 years now.... the 12 next ones will be even more impressive.
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    20 October 2020 @ 16:35
    Raoul, you're right. Its one of the many reasons I've been in on Bitcoin since 2011. The financial system will remake itself, and many won't make the jump if they're not prepared. Crypto is the lifeboat in this financial storm. You don't need a lot, you just need something other than the typical debt-laden currency systems.
  • CA
    Chad A.
    20 October 2020 @ 04:12
    Raoul, your ability to communicate (authentically) complex ideas from a broad view ...yet not lose sight of those pesky “devil in the details” parts of BTC, Euro$/US$, Central bank group-think... is world class. You have a gift. Many subscribers here can trace their initial “wake up moment” back to 9/11. Given where we’ve come since then (from the freedom-destroying Patriot Act to now a completely politicized “pandemic”) your analysis/vision let’s us begin to create a future less dependent on “the system”. It’s so simple... (my view) - own some physical gold (10%+) - be in some cash (20% for short term optionality) - heavy into BTC (at least 25%) - allocate the balance to your other life needs (real estate, your business, etc) At 51 years old ...here is what I know - If you have your health and someone who truly loves you ...you’re 90% in the game. The rest is makes life just marginally better. ...enjoy the Caymans.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 October 2020 @ 10:40
      Thanks!
    • SW
      Sarah W.
      20 October 2020 @ 14:47
      Agreed. It was the Patriot Act for me too, and I was still at school!
  • DB
    Drewe B.
    20 October 2020 @ 12:16
    Hope we get to see a discussion on hedera hashgraph
    • SP
      Stephane P.
      20 October 2020 @ 13:56
      Yes get Dr. Leemon Baird on ... your will get an extraordinary interview !
  • EG
    Eduardo G.
    20 October 2020 @ 13:49
    All well and good, but you had to mention "Pomp" ...?
  • NF
    Neal F.
    20 October 2020 @ 12:12
    Expected features of CD currencies: 1. Cannot be converted to fiat. Cannot be used to pay down debt or hoarded (deflationary). 2. Will have an expiration date. Inflation now! 3. Will reflect social engineering policies. Use for food but not gasoline (climate policy). 4. Means tested. No everyone gets it
    • AK
      Andrew K.
      20 October 2020 @ 13:18
      5. Can't be converted to Bitcoin or other hard assets
  • ah
    at h.
    20 October 2020 @ 13:14
    MMT can work. But it is dependent of who operates the controls. Will it be a reliable government or the new world order for instance?
  • DH
    Derek H.
    19 October 2020 @ 21:03
    Raoul tremendous video. China is full steam ahead on their CBDC and will certainly weaponize it for control of their populus. Strange times. I know you have been asked about XRP as a bridge currency between CBDC's as it is privatized and the largest holdings are in a private company (although it is stashed in escrow). Lagarde and others from the IMF have addressed it directly as an innovative solution to legacy SWIFT. Have your thoughts changed on Ripple? If the XRP token does not appreciate into this role, what do you think will be the medium and liquidity for exchange between CBDC's? Kind regards.
    • PD
      Peter D.
      19 October 2020 @ 21:06
      Ripple is fiat crypto.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      19 October 2020 @ 21:09
      I dont have a view on Ripple.
    • DH
      Derek H.
      19 October 2020 @ 21:16
      Because you are accumulating?.. Jokes aside. Something will need to act as the neutral bridge asset between CBDC's. I will keep researching.
    • EN
      Eliot N.
      19 October 2020 @ 23:06
      Stay tuned this week Derek. I hear there is a video interview they did last week with the CEO of Quant which focuses on CBDC Interoperability
    • AF
      Alan F.
      19 October 2020 @ 23:54
      @Eliot T in this case its not about CBDC interoperability its about having a neutral 3rd party asset which eliminates counterparty risk. The interoperability piece is more easily solved, interestingly via the ILP which Ripple have developed. At this time it seems that XRP is uniquely positioned to step into this role as the no counterparty risk asset of choice to function as the grease in the CBDC global real time payments wheel. The biggest hurdle from it operating in this manner at scale is liquidity. Let's see if XRP can build the necessary liquidity... The team at Ripple spent the last 2 years further decentralizing the network to where they only control 5% of the UNL's. As for the amount of XRP held by founders, I'd like to see that lowered as well somehow. I'm not concerned about the escrowed XRP which Ripple only have access to 1 Billion per month.
    • PS
      Pavel S.
      20 October 2020 @ 11:56
      stay out of XRP :)
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    20 October 2020 @ 11:52
    Time to re-read Hayek's The Road to Serfdom. Before reading the shape of things to come: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Unelected-Power-Legitimacy-Central-Regulatory/dp/0691176736/ "Guiding principles for ensuring that central bankers and other unelected policymakers remain stewards of the common good Central bankers have emerged from the financial crisis as the third great pillar of unelected power alongside the judiciary and the military. They pull the regulatory and financial levers of our economic well-being, yet unlike democratically elected leaders, their power does not come directly from the people. Unelected Power lays out the principles needed to ensure that central bankers, technocrats, regulators, and other agents of the administrative state remain stewards of the common good and do not become overmighty citizens. Paul Tucker draws on a wealth of personal experience from his many years in domestic and international policymaking to tackle the big issues raised by unelected power, and enriches his discussion with examples from the United States, Britain, France, Germany, and the European Union. Blending economics, political theory, and public law, Tucker explores the necessary conditions for delegated but politically insulated power to be legitimate in the eyes of constitutional democracy and the rule of law. He explains why the solution must fit with how real-world government is structured, and why technocrats and their political overseers need incentives to make the system work as intended. Tucker explains how the regulatory state need not be a fourth branch of government free to steer by its own lights, and how central bankers can emulate the best of judicial self-restraint and become models of dispersed power. Like it or not, unelected power has become a hallmark of modern government. This critically important book shows how to harness it to the people's purposes."
  • JM
    John M.
    20 October 2020 @ 02:17
    Banks are also required for loan origination, adjudication and servicing. I don't see how any of that changes. Banks also have valuable distribution networks which offer customer contact, support. I don't see how a central bank displaces that?
    • AI
      Andras I.
      20 October 2020 @ 11:04
      Ask someone who was born in the CCCP. They will know how well this works
  • JB
    James B.
    20 October 2020 @ 04:11
    A comprehensive sweep of the turbulent issues we face in the political economy of our times. Thank you so much for having the passion and persistence to make these important ideas accessible. Having been involved in markets since Nixon ushered in the Post Bretton Wood regime, I am mesmerized with what we're on the verge of and think the contribution of your platform to raising awareness is magnificent.
    • JB
      James B.
      20 October 2020 @ 06:41
      One thing I would question though is the idea that the CB money printing ends up in bank reserves which they do not lend. It is the government that prints the money when it has a budget deficit. The money spent to pit the government in deficit sits as deposits with Mr and Mrs Joe Average. What has changed is instead of those credit balances being funded by a bond, it is funded by expanding the monetary base, which is the bank reserves. That is a decision for the CB. What it is effectively doing is converting the welfare checks and social security payments into the monetary base. Interesting to think that once upon a time it was gold... Also I have been thinking about what the end game might look like. The prospects of a Jubilee seem high but the means will be fascinating to witness. I suspect at some stage all govt debt purchased by the CBs in the West will be forgiven as a means to wipe the slate clean and in basic recognition that it will never be repaid. But it will not be for quite some time as they will continue to buy bonds for quite some time I suspect, to keep the great liquidation alive. The precedents are surprisingly common in ancient times.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 October 2020 @ 10:41
      Wow, thanks!
  • TT
    Terry T.
    20 October 2020 @ 04:25
    Raoul’s dog is all “Would you STFU and take me to the beach?”
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      20 October 2020 @ 10:40
      hahaha...always. They drive me mad with their demands for the beach and diving for coconuts...
  • PD
    Peter D.
    19 October 2020 @ 20:25
    Can someone point to an article that explains why/how US dollars are not fungible with euro-dollars? Does Raoul mean that if Apple is holding USD overseas, the company can't transfer the funds to a U.S. bank?
    • BG
      Bart G.
      20 October 2020 @ 09:48
      Check Eurodollar University on Macro Voices with Jeff Snider. Jeff also has a podcast with Emil Kalinowski called Making Sense In general I think what Raoul means is that all the USD debt created outside of US banking system isn't under Fed's jurisdiction meaning they are not able to bail out debtors if needed.
  • YD
    Yusuf D.
    20 October 2020 @ 09:34
    Hi Raoul. Would a digital currency where one has direct payments to citizens be super inflationary ?
  • JW
    J W.
    20 October 2020 @ 09:32
    😱 you know what you have just done don’t you . You have scared so many people that we are all moving to Little Cayman . Prepare for some noisy neighbors :-)
  • MN
    Mika N.
    20 October 2020 @ 08:32
    Great and inspiring speech. True about privacy. Anyone carrying a mobile phone is not truly concerned about privacy. Or using credit cards, mobile payments, "loyal customer" cards at your market etc. Not to mention what Facebook and Google are capable of. Raoul is right. We never had privacy after we started using other than cash payments.
  • RS
    Ruben S.
    20 October 2020 @ 08:27
    hi Raoul, why do you think the US will let the IMF takeover on the USD hegemony and let everyone out of the swift system? - and therefore loosing "control" and strong leverage on competition and enemies.
  • RN
    Romanas N.
    20 October 2020 @ 08:12
    Thank you for your thoughts. However, I'm a bit sceptical, that bitcoin can become a mainstream store of value here in Denmark. As of now, I'm not allowed to buy bitcoin - none of workers in banking system are allowed. Due to money laundering rules, none of banks accepts money deposits coming from sale of bitcoin. We'll see, how the laws will evolve, but I don't see how to allocate part of my savings to bitcoin without breaking the laws.
    • AD
      Adam D.
      20 October 2020 @ 08:18
      That's why you need it. when currency fails you wont be able to exchange for foreign currency or gold. try local bitcoins for cash sales.
  • WC
    Wilson C.
    20 October 2020 @ 07:26
    great video Raoul. let me offer a different opinion: - BTC's 21M is also it's Achilles heel. It will become an asset class like fine art, only for a small uber wealthy segment. It won't be bid to the moon by the masses like gold. People want to get in at the beginning (ie, gold mining) not really interesting if all the coins are mined for eternity (but hey, we can create BTC 2.0 and start over again!) - A variety of stable coins will be created based on trust (who do you trust to hold your $$$) and ease of transfer cross-borders. as long as you "trust" the issuer (stability, longevity) you can/will buy as store of value. - Behavioural economics.... hmmm, sounds like academic speak for socialism :-)
    • AD
      Adam D.
      20 October 2020 @ 08:15
      Bitcoins can be divided up to 8 decimal places (0.000 000 01) and potentially even smaller units if that is ever required in the future as the average transaction size decreases.
  • AK
    Archavir K.
    20 October 2020 @ 07:10
    Raoul, Governments allowing competition be it private crypto currencies or any other private assets, gold etc. seems extremely unlikely to me... apart from the option 'disabling' cryptos being not that impossible via domain name servers and exchanges... Also, it is important to discuss what a socialist society is, which is what is coming, unless civil unrest and revolution break. It is based on psychological influences and preconditions. This is not helping your thesis. However, I would like to thank you for all your thoughts shared with us!
  • BC
    Bryan C.
    20 October 2020 @ 06:09
    And Raoul ... Kinesis is a system that can be adopted not just by individuals, but entire countries. Indonesia is working with Kinesis through PTPOS now and Africa and Latin America look likely to get involved. Would be keen on your thoughts ....
  • BC
    Bryan C.
    20 October 2020 @ 05:55
    The Kinesis Monetary System solves a lot of these issues in my opinion. Blockchain digitised PM .... mmmmmh. kinesis.money
  • MD
    Mark D.
    20 October 2020 @ 05:50
    Hi Raoul, great piece. Can you please update us on your allocation split between BTC, Gold, USD, Tradable Cash? Many thanks, Mark
  • PB
    Paolo B.
    20 October 2020 @ 01:16
    Great explanation so well thought; and I am totally with you. We are going to face scary scary times. What price has your freedom? BTG GLD are the way. Power top down means authoritarianism. No matter from whom. Not sure if the osmosis between the two systems will stand. Crucial will becomes as well to build the next internet, because the one we have right now is dead and already a citizen in China or Russia cannot see the same things that a citizen in the US or in France can do. Last a reminder that what IMF wants to do looks like a Bancor but isn't. Keynes aside even an keynesian like James K Galbraith warned about this in a magnificent article entitled "Don’t turn the world over to the bankers" (2003 https://mondediplo.com/2003/05/06galbraith ). Many thanks for this.
    • PB
      Paolo B.
      20 October 2020 @ 05:25
      Apologies for the tsunami of typos
  • VB
    Vikram B.
    20 October 2020 @ 05:07
    So where is the Neil Howe interview?
  • RK
    Rafal K.
    20 October 2020 @ 04:22
    Raoul, it's a great summary, but it's depressing. Sorry, as dollar centered asset holder, 'all good intentions lead to hell', and I'm old enough to see how government screws this up. This leads to distrust of people like me in the system, and creates significant disincentive for productive people like me to participate.
    • RK
      Rafal K.
      20 October 2020 @ 04:47
      I want to add a comment after reading responses below. If it's trust and economic value that define an asset, in the world of increasing environmental concerns, it may not be 'digital currencies' that offer store of value but other things - transportable rare metals (gold being the tip of the iceberg, but actually platinum/palladium/rhodium) and agricultural land in right jurisdiction.
  • PC
    Peter C.
    19 October 2020 @ 21:46