The Leading Inflation Indicator

Published on
January 6th, 2017
47 minutes

The Leading Inflation Indicator

Gold ·
Featuring Ronald-Peter Stoeferle

Published on: January 6th, 2017 • Duration: 47 minutes

Gold expert and fund manager Ronnie Stoeferle returns to Real Vision to outline the mechanics behind his inflationary indicator, which is crucial to his investment process and recently flipped to a long term deflationary view. With a lesson in Austrian economics, Ronnie takes a critical view on the post Trump euphoria, providing his outlook for gold, along with silver and the major financial markets.


  • JF
    John F.
    24 January 2017 @ 00:39
    1.) The PE SP500 is inverse to the earnings yield (ie: long term rates). As long term rates rise, as they are now doing, the SP500 must correct. 2.) The current inflation in the US seems more deficit driven that demand driven. However, if structural reforms (tax incentives) and deficit spending are implemented with loans increasing, as a result, we could enter a new business cycle. The pivot point appears to be approx. June 2017 at the earliest. That would confirm the need for industrial Silver, and drive up the price as you forecast. 3.) President Regan's successful application of deficit spending during deflation (a 'balance sheet recession") confirms Richard C. Koo's book.
  • NH
    Nigel H.
    13 January 2017 @ 15:12
    Great interview and insights, but let’s make the distinction now that holding gold bullion is not a trade. It’s like owning a house - you need it for shelter. Gold trades are something else. For this you need to pull out charts and see that there was no l/t buy signal to be had in gold post-Brexit. The massive H&S top in GDX was completed in early Oct. A similar bearish setup in futures. From my very rudimentary knowledge of financial markets I can see that gold bugs always fail to make the distinction between bullion and paper gold. I am sure that Mr. Druckenmiller owns a personal vault full of bullion that he never touches. PS. it was very easy to write this in hindsight.
  • JM
    James M.
    11 January 2017 @ 00:42
    Harry Dent, is your bear on the yella!
  • CS
    Carlo S.
    11 January 2017 @ 00:16
    Great interview. More with Ronnie please!
  • RA
    Ricardo A.
    9 January 2017 @ 17:19
    Its time to bring someone fundamentally bearish on gold, to avoid confirmation bias. Its probably hard to find someone sane and bearish .. but please try
  • EM
    Emre M.
    9 January 2017 @ 16:00
    amazing interview. "US is already in a recession"! sure
  • OA
    Orhan A.
    9 January 2017 @ 14:51
    Loved the way how many times he had formed his personal opinion about something. Definitely going to read the book. Keep it coming!
  • BC
    Ben C.
    9 January 2017 @ 03:57
    Notes to self: "Before every recession, we had a surge in inflation" "Gold is the best forward-looking indicator for rising inflation" "Our inflation indicator just recently flipped to disinflation" "The gold/silver ratio is rising, which is very strong for deflation ... silver outperforming gold means rising inflation rates" "The inflation signal lead time is 3-6 months" "The Austrian school of economics says you can't predict the future ... we shouldn't model it with very complex models" "(2017 predictions) there will be slow growth or recession ... commodities make their lows ... gold made its lows ... silver will perform more than 50% ... inflation overshoot can happen"
  • BJ
    Brent J. | Contributor
    9 January 2017 @ 03:01
    One of my favorite aspects of working in the Gold world has been the number of genuinely nice people I have met who genuinely want to be a positive force in the world and help others. And Ronni is as good as they come.
  • SD
    Stephen D. | Contributor
    9 January 2017 @ 02:26
    Very good interview, and I'm a gold owining quasi Austrian schhol investor. But recommending gold on Realvision is like hammering the Democrats on Fox News or attacking Trump on MSNBC. Everyone cheers. We must all guard asgainst Confirmation Bias, it's one of the biggest risks to any investor.
  • SR
    Sean R.
    9 January 2017 @ 02:12
    Best interview so far. Love the Austrian School commentary and would love to see more of it.
  • TS
    Tim S.
    8 January 2017 @ 18:07
    Excellent discussion, thank you. Reading Austrian Investing between Inflation and Deflation book right now.
  • DD
    Derek D.
    8 January 2017 @ 17:41
    So moral of the story: sell when Jamie Dimon is wearing a gold lampshade on his head. Love Stoerferle. Everyone MUST read "Austrian School for Investors".
  • WM
    Will M.
    8 January 2017 @ 15:19
    Just super quality commentary. We need to keep focussed on the longer term. Its just a question of time before the sh1t hits the fan. @ Robert M. needs to consider the impact of a strong $ on the world. Plenty on great commentary on RVT about that and why it ultimately will be bad for the US and the world.
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    8 January 2017 @ 04:49
    Fantastic interview! Everybody is talking about the Trump Rally, but how much of it is really just the removal of uncertainty... I put it out there that a Hillary win would have seen the markets rise, because the uncertainty was removed. They perhaps moved slightly more with Trump winning because things will (definitely?) change as opposed to "more of the same" with Hillary. Remember to review history as a series of possible outcomes, not just the outcome that actually occurred.
  • LA
    Linda A.
    7 January 2017 @ 22:34
    What a smart & clear thinker Ronnie is! I enjoyed this interview immensely. There are some bold calls for 2017. Thank u!
  • MS
    Matt S.
    7 January 2017 @ 22:08
    I think of the 2008 disaster as the Titanic hitting the iceberg. A big crashing noise, shockwaves shuddering through the system. But we didn't sink. Those who are buying and holding gold now are the same as those passengers who heard the noise, felt the shudder, and put a life ring around them. They knew something bad was coming. So do we.
  • MS
    Matt S.
    7 January 2017 @ 22:05
    That was a good one; really interesting... I see gold is already moving back up strongly post-Trump victory. Bounced off £900 and at £950+ at time of writing this. I'm still happy to be holding a nice chunk of physical even though I got it at about £1000 per oz pre-election. As Grant said, there WILL be a time in the future where we can let out gold go. Don't worry... it will be REALLY obvious when that is ;) HOLD IT ALL FOR NOW.
  • BV
    Bryan V.
    7 January 2017 @ 21:23
    The predictions made of rising commodities and lower interest rates paint a picture of a stagflation environment for which all sorts of correlations break down. Combine this with capital fleeing regions and various asset classes (seeking safe havens) and I see quite a bit of volatility for markets. Focus on any one particular aspect (political, economic, valuation models) may be one's undoing. Good luck out there!
  • AA
    ALI A.
    7 January 2017 @ 15:14
    One of the best real time inflation indicators (leads CPI) is MIT's Billions of Prices Index which has since been licensed by State Street and is now known as PriceStats. Gundlach uses it all the time.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    7 January 2017 @ 14:21
    If the dollar gets stronger that will be great for the world since the US is the largest consumer country and a strong dollar will give the US consumer a lot more buying power.
  • CD
    Chris D.
    7 January 2017 @ 10:52
    You guys mean more as in "MOAR" right? ;-)
  • RM
    Robert M.
    7 January 2017 @ 00:58
    Awesome interview.
  • RM
    Rainer M.
    6 January 2017 @ 20:14
    Great thoughts and discussion. 2017 forecast of Silver at $42 and Gold ? It would have been interesting and useful if some comments were made about the view on Gold/Silver ratio
  • HJ
    Harry J.
    6 January 2017 @ 18:17
    Give me more.. Excellent as always..
  • HJ
    Harry J.
    6 January 2017 @ 18:16
    Give me more!!!