Binary Outcome for Turkish Referendum

Published on
March 31st, 2017
38 minutes

Binary Outcome for Turkish Referendum

Horizon ·
Featuring Michael Harris

Published on: March 31st, 2017 • Duration: 38 minutes

Michael Harris has a long track record as an EEMEA strategist, specializing in Turkey and with the approaching constitutional reform referendum seen as a binary event, Mike outlines some actionable trade recommendations, as he plays out the various political scenarios. The lens also falls on South Africa and the rand, as he examines whether the market is ready for a potential downgrade. Filmed on March 22, 2017 in London.


  • MN
    Michael N. | Contributor
    7 April 2017 @ 09:01
    This interview argues that Erdogan will normalize his behavior if he wins the referendum (a Yes vote wins). a) this is an assumption, there is no such indication. b) If this the case than hwy is he fighting free speech? He has jailed a record number of journalists for expressing their opinion (which he does not agree with). c) Turkey and Brazil have very big differences in terms of structure c) economy is doing much worse beneath the surface. Current account is deteriorating and inflation is spiking. Central bank is scared of raising rates because of Erdogan, banks will have to increase provisions and reduce credit. finally I do not agree with the arguments on the death penalty, I think he will re-instate it and that will be very bad for human rights. This interview in my is one sided. If you ask me if Erdogan wins the referendum, things will get much worse. An indicator I always like to look in EM is what local business thinks.. and local business is very scared and if the Yes vote wins local business confidence will plunge. Not to mention what an authoritarian Erdogan will mean for the whole region. It would be very interesting to search and see how Erdogan avoided the coup and who helped him. Things are not as they appear.
  • JH
    John H.
    6 April 2017 @ 19:28
    Fantastic. Great speaker. This kind of look into the politics of an EM (which you don't get reading the Street's research reports) is very valuable. Thank you and keep these coming.
  • IC
    Ibrahim C.
    5 April 2017 @ 10:09
    As a Turkish citizen, I must say that the syntheses outlined in this interview are full of astute observations. The clarity and accuracy of details are amazing. Thanks to RV for this great interview.
  • FM
    Fraser M.
    4 April 2017 @ 05:49
    Wow - not only is this guy smart and eloquent he was absolutely right about the ZAR which is collapsing (-13%) ahead of the potential SA rating downgrade on April 7th.
  • RM
    Ritwik M.
    3 April 2017 @ 09:05
    • TQ
      Tom Q.
      3 April 2017 @ 17:11
  • RM
    Ritwik M.
    3 April 2017 @ 08:59
  • FB
    Frank B.
    3 April 2017 @ 00:01
    Can we please have a similar argument about Congo? So much going on there politically. Understanding the macro in Congo may present great opportunities maybe not through currency but surely through natural resources.
  • GM
    Greg M.
    2 April 2017 @ 22:29
    The video seems to skip with about 30 seconds left.
  • EK
    Emil K.
    2 April 2017 @ 19:42
    What a great performance. I sense it won't get as many views as it deserves. My early nominee for "most underappreciated video" of 2017. Would love to have heard more why South Africa is "one of the strongest emerging markets" and yet "it is not growing, not reforming." Hope to see Michael Harris back regularly.
  • WW
    Willie W.
    2 April 2017 @ 15:32
    Great interview discussing the positive and negative possibilities with a relevant time line. Perfect blend of markets, politics, and investor sentiment.
  • GG
    Gerald G.
    2 April 2017 @ 05:09
    Great interview in that all the possibilities were presented in a very clear, unbiased and objective fashion. It seems like, whenever someone analyzes the climate in the US, it's either very critical (from one perspective) or very positive from another. I sure would love to see someone lay out all the possibilities for the next year or two in the US in such an ubiased fashion.
  • JM
    Jason M.
    1 April 2017 @ 14:37
    OK this is what we want. Towering intellect combined with market savvy. Much appreciated.
  • GF
    George F.
    1 April 2017 @ 14:24
    In the past I have assumed SA could not become Zimbabwe because black South Africans were integerated into the police and military and enjoyed a lifestyle that could not be supported by land redistribution and subsistence farming. Maybe Mr Zuma did not read my message board rantings? Does this change anything: South Africa's new finance minister to 'radically transform' economy Malusi Gigaba, appointed after Jacob Zuma sacked Pravin Gordhan, promises wealth redistribution in swing to the left
  • GS
    Gordon S.
    1 April 2017 @ 13:04
    Peter M. the hotly debated tag is simply obtained by the comment that, for the time being, hast the most number of votes. No fancy algorithm behind it.
  • MY
    Madjid Y.
    1 April 2017 @ 08:53
    Excellent, I understand that there are few in the RV community who trade EM and EM currencies. I would like to thank the RV team for allocating the time for that and providing amazing insights on both TRY and ZAR.
  • TH
    Timo H.
    1 April 2017 @ 06:25
    Ok. There's a referendum in Turkey and its result matters a lot also outside Turkey. I did not understand that before watching this piece. Thanks!
  • HS
    Harrison S.
    1 April 2017 @ 06:16
    Trying to short the RV "hotly debated" algo. Doesn't seem to reflect market sentiment.
  • GB
    Gary B.
    31 March 2017 @ 19:52
    I learned a lot about the current political and economic situation in Turkey. I can watch the referendum results with a greater understanding of the ramifications of the results. RV comes through again with a great interview.
  • PU
    Peter U.
    31 March 2017 @ 18:08
    How does Real Vision "generate" a "hotly debated" tag on a comment? Seems a bit silly where someone can say excellent and with just two people giving it a thumbs up, the comment becomes "hotly debated".
  • LJ
    Lucille J.
    31 March 2017 @ 12:17