Afterhours with Raoul

Published on
July 14th, 2020
Duration
95 minutes

Afterhours with Raoul

Insider Talks ·
Featuring Raoul Pal

Published on: July 14th, 2020 • Duration: 95 minutes

Since March, we have had a surge of new Pro members join us, looking for guidance through one of the most volatile times in history. And many Pro members (new and old) have questions about investing fundamentals. That’s not usually the remit of Real Vision Pro, but we live in usual times. So from 2.00pm ET, Raoul is hosting an Afterhours “Ask Me Anything” session, where he takes you step by step through his entire process and framework, and answers your questions on everything from risk management to position sizing to time horizons and lots more.

Comments

Transcript

  • AM
    Aengus M.
    21 July 2020 @ 10:57
    Circa minuet 16:30/17 ‘it biases me to understand that the secular cycle for commodities is down, and the business cycle is down, that any market action in commodity prices is likely to be counter trend, because the economic trend over my time horizon is down’ Does this mean commodity prices down?
    • AM
      Aengus M.
      21 July 2020 @ 10:59
      Just to clarify, its the counter trend part I am struggling with.
  • CJ
    Christopher J.
    19 July 2020 @ 16:45
    i love the positioning guidelines with respect to portfolio size - such an important piece - on my second rerun and will need towatch again and again
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    18 July 2020 @ 23:14
    I learnt a lot, thank you both very much
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    18 July 2020 @ 23:13
    I learnt a lot, thank you both very much
  • RG
    Razmig G.
    18 July 2020 @ 19:02
    Thank you this was helpful 👍🏻
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    15 July 2020 @ 01:58
    This single video alone was worth being an RV Pro member. Bravo.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      15 July 2020 @ 22:26
      Agreed.
    • CB
      Charles B.
      18 July 2020 @ 11:45
      Yes. I will watch this one many times.
  • SM
    Sean M.
    17 July 2020 @ 21:33
    Raoul, I have 3 questions 1. Why don't these companies start to issue stock to generate cash instead of take on debt, at least the ones that have rallied and need cash or when retail spikes the equity price of these companies? 2. Is there an arbitrage or profitable way to buy some of these companies bonds and short the stock. It's beyond my account to do it, just wondering if distressed guys are doing it. 3. I don't know how much debt is issued by gold miners but most of RV and even the guys bullish the market are all high on gold, so if these miners have relatively high yielding debt, would that be another way to get bullish gold and do you think it is reasonable? Thanks.
  • PV
    Peter V.
    17 July 2020 @ 06:34
    Outstanding Raoul. thank you.
  • JW
    John W.
    17 July 2020 @ 03:30
    Thanks Raoul....very informative. You mentioned being long on South Asian sectors. Do you have funds or specific sectors you recommend?
  • GM
    Guillermo M.
    17 July 2020 @ 03:04
    Excellent content, Raoul; I found it very, very helpful. I have one question for you: considering that volatility will most probably rise, at least until elections in the USA, what do you think about buying VIX calls as a trade, not a hedge?
  • MB
    Mark B.
    16 July 2020 @ 11:39
    Thank Raoul - very helpful. Would love to see more of this type of content. Your wisdom on a range of subjects answered questions I’ve been thinking about for a while - you helped reprioritise where I should be spending my time. Amongst many things, I found your comments on position sizing very helpful and how to decide on a stop loss. Your comments on options in general and their use relative to a stop loss had huge practical value. Regards the retiree’s concerns about generating income in this environment, I would say many people are wondering about the same thing. Interest rates are low and many companies have reduced/stopped paying dividends - they need a substitute. Massive money printing makes people wonder how much their principle will actually be worth. In my view this is why more people are learning more short-term trading. It’s risky of course. Ideally, there is other money invested in longer term themes that provide a form of lump sum profits.
    • DH
      David H.
      17 July 2020 @ 02:52
      Learning short term trading at retirement age seems very dangerous for all but a few. Raoul's core positions in gold and bitcoin also seem risky, but manageable with close attention and the asymmetric risk/reward might be the only real salvation for some.
  • AS
    Ash S.
    17 July 2020 @ 00:55
    This was SO GOOD!!
  • AT
    Andrew T.
    16 July 2020 @ 21:59
    Reliving you most painful trades and major life mistakes in public is one of the hardest things to do. Well done mate. I could hear the emotion in your voice and really appreciate your time here.
  • TW
    Timothy W.
    16 July 2020 @ 18:34
    I'm not a novice or beginner, and this is EXCELLENT content. Getting down to the core/'basics' of the process of highly successful people in the field is helpful to anyone, expert or beginner. A peak into how you see things (e.g. getting a look at how your bberg screens are organized) is why Pro is so good/unique/worth the money.
  • AH
    Andre H.
    16 July 2020 @ 14:34
    Regarding the tools question, for those who cannot afford a Bloomberg, check Koyfin.com (no affiliation)
    • CH
      Charlie H.
      16 July 2020 @ 15:56
      Nice so far so good and free for now.
  • JN
    Jill N.
    16 July 2020 @ 12:33
    Thanks Raoul-it was great. Could we have a transcript of the discussion.
  • GL
    G L.
    16 July 2020 @ 09:16
    Thank you, Raoul, for this masterclass.
  • IH
    Iain H.
    16 July 2020 @ 06:28
    Can you please upload an audio only version of this? Much appreciated.
  • SH
    Sahil H.
    16 July 2020 @ 02:32
    Hi Everyone, If you're looking for the the Slack Team here is an invite link: https://join.slack.com/t/rvfans/shared_invite/zt-frwuzh9y-JppjcfJ6RX2K4ssBt7p7_w Unfortunately, these links only last 30 days so if you stumble across this message after the next 30 days We will need to create a new one.
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      16 July 2020 @ 02:41
      I've modified the team so that if you join the slack team now you will automatically be added to the channel for this which is #raoul-ama If you're already in the Slack team but you are not in the channel you will need to do the following: 1. On the left hand panel press the '+' button next to 'Channels' 2. Click 'Browse Channels' 3. Scroll down till you find '#raoul-ama' and click on it 4. Then press the green 'Join Channel' button at the bottom of the screen
  • TM
    Thomas M.
    16 July 2020 @ 02:35
    Great Job and You gave great insight into Macro theme building. Just a recommendation - possibly showcase a real trade set up so that people can see how you enter trades and place stop loss. You did this with calling out UUP long with a stop that got hit a while back. It was helpful to understand the picture you were seeing and how you place a trade in the market. You defined what you expected to make and what you determined was a stop loss. I think it would be helpful from time to time as you help people with the Macro Picture. Thanks again - just a thought - This is not a trade service but it will help many IMHO along with this type of conversations. Cheers.
  • ly
    lena y.
    15 July 2020 @ 00:38
    So much is said! Thank you! My question is answered! Is it possible to have transcript so it is easier to absorb all was delivered!?
    • RD
      Ryan D.
      15 July 2020 @ 12:10
      How does one get an invitation to the RV fans on slack ?
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      16 July 2020 @ 02:30
      Hi Ryan: Here is a link to the Slack Team: https://join.slack.com/t/rvfans/shared_invite/zt-frwuzh9y-JppjcfJ6RX2K4ssBt7p7_w
  • GH
    Grant H.
    15 July 2020 @ 01:54
    Looks like that slack channel requires and invite, unless I'm doing it wrong...? Anybody have one?
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      15 July 2020 @ 04:31
      Hi Grant, try this link rvfans.slack.com Cheers, Ivan
    • TR
      Theodore R.
      15 July 2020 @ 08:56
      Thanks Ivan. Followed your link but not sure how to access. Do you guys have a Slack login? Is that the way to go? Or an invite is the proper way? Max, help pls !!
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      15 July 2020 @ 12:06
      Theodore, I think you need to have an account with Slack. It's new to me as well, I just followed the link, created an account and logged in. Hope it helps.
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      15 July 2020 @ 14:14
      Hi Theodore, You will need to create an account you should be able to do it with the link
    • TR
      Theodore R.
      15 July 2020 @ 14:36
      Gotta. Thank you gents.
    • GH
      Grant H.
      15 July 2020 @ 17:20
      Thanks for all replies on this, though I still seem to be stuck. I can sign in to create my own workspace, but it seems I need an invite to get to the rvfans workspace? Can someone create an invite link, or clue me in where I'm going wrong? Thanks!
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      16 July 2020 @ 02:29
      Hi Grant, Not sure what the issue is but here is an invite link: https://join.slack.com/t/rvfans/shared_invite/zt-frwuzh9y-JppjcfJ6RX2K4ssBt7p7_w once you're in you should be automatically added to the channel #raoul-ama
  • MR
    Michael R.
    15 July 2020 @ 11:33
    how can i get access to rvfans.slack.com?
    • MJ
      Matthew J.
      15 July 2020 @ 14:35
      I have a slack account but can’t get into the conversation?
    • MJ
      Matthew J.
      15 July 2020 @ 14:42
      What is the channel name once you are in slack? rvfans doesn’t work
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      16 July 2020 @ 02:28
      Hi Michael and Matthew Here is a link to the slack channel: https://join.slack.com/t/rvfans/shared_invite/zt-frwuzh9y-JppjcfJ6RX2K4ssBt7p7_w Once you're in you should see a channel called #raoul-ama I've changed the settings so you're automatically added to it when you join
  • RD
    Ryan D.
    15 July 2020 @ 12:13
    How do we signup for RV fans.slack.com? I downloaded app...
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      16 July 2020 @ 02:27
      Hi Ryan Here is a link to the Slack Team: https://join.slack.com/t/rvfans/shared_invite/zt-frwuzh9y-JppjcfJ6RX2K4ssBt7p7_w
  • DH
    David H.
    16 July 2020 @ 00:54
    Which Slack channel in RVFans has the follow on discussion to this presentation?
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      16 July 2020 @ 02:25
      Hi David. You should be able to access the slack team with this link: https://join.slack.com/t/rvfans/shared_invite/zt-frwuzh9y-JppjcfJ6RX2K4ssBt7p7_w
  • RM
    Rohin M.
    15 July 2020 @ 18:37
    Thank you for this RV. Invaluable. Regarding the slack channel. It says I need to be invited into it by the administrator. Can someone help with this please? Thank you
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      16 July 2020 @ 02:24
      HI Rohin, Not sure what the issue is but try this link: https://join.slack.com/t/rvfans/shared_invite/zt-frwuzh9y-JppjcfJ6RX2K4ssBt7p7_w If it works please send me a message on the slack team
  • CR
    Campbell R.
    16 July 2020 @ 01:37
    Fantastic overview of your process, thank you
  • FR
    Farid R.
    16 July 2020 @ 01:29
    Appreciate it Raoul!!! Thanks
  • EH
    Espen H.
    16 July 2020 @ 00:07
    Brilliant, Raoul! Spot on.
  • CF
    Chris F.
    15 July 2020 @ 23:55
    Brilliant! Will definitely rewatch. so much wisdom here.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    15 July 2020 @ 22:33
    Incredible wisdom and true generosity. Thank you so so so much Raoul!!! As someone else said, this discussion alone was worth the subscription. Thank you!!
  • RD
    Ryan D.
    15 July 2020 @ 19:02
    Absolutely fantastic interview much appreciated. This is the high value content I was hoping for- learning how to fish from people who can actually do it. Learning about your framework. Is so helpful. Learning more and more about bet sizing and risk management as we go along will be great.
  • HS
    Haythim S.
    15 July 2020 @ 18:53
    Fantastic ! Thanks Raoul
  • sg
    scott g.
    15 July 2020 @ 18:10
    just when i think i know everything and have this business figured out (sic) after so many years, this video comes along. I dont come from a macro set of glasses but your view/process i find very complimentary to my secular investment process. The overlay is awesome. Thank you
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    15 July 2020 @ 17:05
    Super ... Thanks ...
  • GP
    Geoff P.
    15 July 2020 @ 15:48
    Thanks Raoul, Would you mind sharing the levels upon which you size your positions during the time of the recommendation? It would be helpful to get a feel for the levels you're looking at to size the position. I understand these levels aren't fixed (get out if touched), and might be adjusted behind the scenes, but it would help to provide a crucial piece of data on understanding your point of view. Examples, such as BTC sized at zero (options sizing), EURUSD sized at 1.145ish, etc. were learned after the initial rec. I understand there's a lot of discretion even inside the allocation (gold risk sized at 10% of NAV is way more than one would do for EURUSD as a basket dollar long thesis, e.g.). I understand if you don't want to be boxed in, or if you feel you might have to close the rec if the level is breeched even if you personally are willing to let it go beyond that level and deal with the pain until you get confirmation elsewhere, but hopefully we're all adults here and would welcome the flexibility you need. It's just an extra data point, nothing more. Either way, many thanks for the insights provided.
  • RM
    Richard M.
    15 July 2020 @ 15:23
    Wow, fantastic "master class" Raoul, just fantastic! Really reminiscent of those very early master classes from Mark Hart, Kyle Bass, etc. that initially sold me on this whole RV concept. Teach me to fish, I'll take it from there! And it really helps for when I'm beating myself up for doing something stupid to find out even the best pro's sometimes make mistakes too. You just need to learn to accept the loss and move on (but also learn something from the loss). Again, many thanks for this wonderful video!
  • GT
    Gene T.
    15 July 2020 @ 15:22
    Brilliant. Transcript please.
  • VT
    Vasilios T.
    15 July 2020 @ 14:51
    One of the most valuable videos I have seen on here; explaining very well structurally how to build a frame work with ideas and themes on investment using Macro - Valuable on how to construct a strategy for investment, Thanks Raul
  • vp
    vivian p.
    15 July 2020 @ 14:43
    Excellent session. Transcript would be invaluable in my mapping process on home office whiteboard. If not available, will listen multiple times which would not be onerous. Would appreciate access to RV Slack. Long time RV member...this session jumped me forward in thought process in managing family finances. Many thanks.
  • OS
    Oliver S.
    15 July 2020 @ 14:42
    A really good addition to RV. Many thanks.
  • SH
    Stu H.
    15 July 2020 @ 14:34
    Transcript would be great if possible...
  • DF
    David F.
    15 July 2020 @ 13:09
    Raoul, this was absolute magic. It answered so many questions and happily explained where one had got it right, out of instinct. Thank you very much. I have one important aspect that I'm still uncertain about. This relates to risking a position, and to then determine one's accumulative risk overall. For me, this is made more difficult as an amateur because the platform (in my case Saxo Pro) uses an algo to determine the exposure of each future, option or eurodollar trade an investor puts on. And, if one exceeds the algo's pre-determined threshold (not shown), no future positions can then be acquired. Negating one's ability to go 'all in' as you discussed. There is, therefore, two issues. One is a need to better understand the risk of each investment. And thereafter solve the Saxo platform blocking mechanism. The Saxo platform is very good but does affect one's ability to go 'all in.' You might say that is a blessing in disguise. Thank you
  • NM
    Nicholas M.
    15 July 2020 @ 12:58
    Which banks are you watching Raoul?
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    15 July 2020 @ 12:09
    I traded equities on the sell side for 10 years then bot a retail HNW investment management business back in 2011. Not a fossil (yet) but not my first rodeo either. All to say, this video is a masterclass. Why? Because it’s what you don’t have to listen to. Watch this video about five times then come back and watch it at least once a year. It’s that fundamentally powerful. This is ninety minutes of solid foundation. He’s taken the pain and we are benefiting. Thanks Raoul.
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    15 July 2020 @ 09:34
    Raoul is a legend
  • DB
    Dan B.
    15 July 2020 @ 08:23
    Ledge Raoul - very valuable !
  • FN
    Fredrik N.
    15 July 2020 @ 05:44
    I agree, the best interview/video ever. Thank you Raoul. Please add the transcript as well.