Flash Update – March 12, 2020

Published on
March 12th, 2020
Duration
8 minutes


Flash Update – March 12, 2020

Insider Talks ·
Featuring Raoul Pal

Published on: March 12th, 2020 • Duration: 8 minutes

Raoul has another flash update where he says that now markets are in free fall. He discusses his worries about holding a gold position now and the potential downside risk, the current status of currencies, the measures central banks globally need to implement so as to mitigate this bear market, and more.

Comments

  • NN
    Nathan N.
    18 March 2020 @ 13:13
    Would love to hear a flash update on current state of the treasury market. Getting concerned w/ TLT - wondering if I should pull out entirely or wait for a better exit.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      18 March 2020 @ 13:26
      I would exit the trade. The policy response is enormous. Capital preservation first.
    • NN
      Nathan N.
      18 March 2020 @ 13:53
      Thanks, Harry. I have a position in $FUAMX as well. Would it behoove to move that to cash as well?
    • YO
      Yoshitaka O.
      18 March 2020 @ 16:03
      Yes a Flash Update on TLT positions would be very much appreciated
  • MJ
    Matthew J.
    17 March 2020 @ 10:15
    Raoul, Julian, Harry, Firstly thank you for your updates, extremely helpful as always. For reference I am a newbie to this space and am trying to learn as fast as I can. I feel most of us are looking forward and asking questions about when to exit the HYG and SPX puts. I can see the call by Raoul of 20-30% down that could still be in play as of his Expert View video, also the 2000 SPX level. - One question is what should we be looking for to sell our positions and should we incrementally sell at certain points (this seems sensible to me)? Trying to keep emotion out of the frame here. Following this, I know Raoul discusses the dollar boom coming and the effects of government intervention on gold over the summer. - What are your thoughts on the best ways to take advantage of the upside play of Gold & Silver and how do you feel about the G/S ratio play also? Miners are on my mind as they can be geared positively, NG (I liked Thomas Keplan approach long term) and FVN (Royalties) are my thoughts. Then I wonder about leveraged ETFs such as JNUG (junior leveraged miners etf that has been hit hard), Calls and Futures. Harry I noticed you said you prefer Futures to ETFs for example. - How much should we be looking to spread ourselves vs concentrating cash on a few investments? Essentially what is the best way to play the next move into gold etc? Of course I intend to wait for Raoul and Julian's thoughts. I just want to get ahead of the game with putting together my own thoughts and ensuring I understand the types of plays that might be ahead so I can get my head in the books and be ready for recommendations. Many Thanks All, Matt RV is a game changer can't thank you enough.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      18 March 2020 @ 13:38
      Compound questions are like compound bets. A lot can go wrong. Still, here is an attempt to offer some guidance. 1) HYG is working (for now). S&P puts are working. Policymakers have addressed the disaster (and it was a disaster) in funding markets. At least partially. But for those of us not directly able to access fed funding this doesnt help much. So expect funding strains to persist, even if the apocalypse has been averted for now. Vol is extremely high, and that might give you reason to convert positions into put spreads etc. Sell a further OTM put against your long put position. My concern is governments will underwrite credit, which will protect HYG, but further undermine TNT 2) TNT, Long end bonds. Take profits/ close positions. Game has changed. Scale of fiscal intervention is enormous, and looks like more coming. Almost all of it monetized. Debt/GDP ratios in the West will explode. Debt up, GDP down. Where will we be when this is over? The first rule of all trading - capital preservation is paramount. 3) JB likes junior miners. Utterly bombed out. But an indirect position on gold. JB also likes Gold. For same reason as he suggests exiting fixed income positions. If Debt/GDP goes to 200, where will gold go? You used a stop to exit gold. Now you can enter at a better level. 4) Protect positions and dont use too much geering. This is not a good time to "press".
    • FK
      Firoze K.
      18 March 2020 @ 15:17
      Thanks for posting these questions. Very similar to what I had on my mind. I've closed one of my Puts on HYG (June) expiry. Have kept Sept for now...very conscious that I don't want to see them reverse rapidly!
  • CJ
    Christopher J.
    13 March 2020 @ 18:23
    Hugely appreciate all this - sold remainder of gold this morning before the downturn later. Great stuff. Had some difficulties with iShares IBTM (UK equivalent of IEF - quoted prices 10% lower than I sold for! ). Eventually sold at correct price. Really appreciate advice regarding futures vs ETF. Thanks again!
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 March 2020 @ 00:07
      I always prefer futures to ETF. Margin products are in many ways more efficient and safer, and usually with better liquidity. If you mean rich-cheap analysis, cant help you. Dont know the ETFs well enough
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      18 March 2020 @ 13:45
      I would keep a close eye on gold. I have bought call options for my personal account. I am thinking the scale of monetization of debt is unprecedented.
  • SA
    Saad A.
    15 March 2020 @ 13:39
    Hello Raoul. Any view on the “ FED TO ANNOUNCE COMMERCIAL PAPER PURCHASES PROGRAM TOMORROW - BofA” and impact on corporate credit trade (HYG)? thx
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 March 2020 @ 00:03
      So forgive but there is very little the Fed can do to comfort me. Excesses in lending to low quality borrowers and the CV19 event are a particularly tough thing to cushion. Fed is gonna try and provide copious liquidity to the US banking system. Great. The problem is Main Street. HYG is not the center of the problem, but its hard to see how there isnt going to be a problem with credit. One could easily argue the Russell is more negatively affected (true), but the twin problems of liquidity and solvency are gonna be tough to address directly.
    • SA
      Saad A.
      17 March 2020 @ 03:01
      Thank you Harry!
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      18 March 2020 @ 13:43
      So worth noting that the Fed programs that were announced were way more comprehensive than had been speculated. Includes accepting a range of new collateral including IG corporate credit, and equity products. This is rubicon of sorts. It is also bearish government bonds. GB and mortgages had been the sole collateral that could be accepted by the Fed. Not anymore!
  • EO
    Elena O.
    16 March 2020 @ 01:13
    Guys, I never traded options before. Any practical guides out there I can use to start?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      18 March 2020 @ 13:40
      Its a process. There are any number of books. But the one critical piece of advice is don't short options till you have read extensively. Unlimited downside is a dangerous thing. There are so many resources I cant honestly recommend one. Most of the stuff I would suggest would be use quite a technical treatment.
  • JS
    Jim S.
    16 March 2020 @ 11:37
    Hey, thanks for all the content. I was wondering if it would be possible to have an RV Pro forum - where we could all crowd source to bounce ideas off of each other - rather than trying to do this in the comments section of each video. Thanks for everything you all do!
  • KC
    Kurt C.
    16 March 2020 @ 04:32
    Hi, New subscriber here. Where can I find these roadmaps Raoul is talking about? Trying to find my way around here. Very exciting and great info!
  • DH
    Dean H.
    13 March 2020 @ 11:17
    Hi Raoul, I have just signed over to RV pro today, I am wondering how you recommend playing the S&P500 short from today? Idea on a put? Cheers, Dean
    • DH
      Dean H.
      13 March 2020 @ 11:21
      I have a Fut. Op in for June at 2300, I feel i may have overcooked it...
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      13 March 2020 @ 12:34
      That looks ok to me. I think there is a chance we get to 2000 in this phase... but who knows...
    • DH
      Dean H.
      13 March 2020 @ 12:58
      Appreciate the reply, will keep it as is then. Cheers!
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 March 2020 @ 00:08
      They are not cheap. Have you considered risk reversals? Sell OTM call against your OTM put? There are risks with short options positions. An alternative might be a put spread.
    • DH
      Dean H.
      16 March 2020 @ 01:16
      Thanks Harry, expensive is correct! Waiting now for a cheaper time OTM call. Cheers Dean
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    12 March 2020 @ 16:45
    Oh, and what do you folks do with your cash at IB ? I am thinking buying short term treasuries, just in case IB would turn into an MF Global and all cash vanishes (or some of its sub-custodian vanishes). Any better options?
    • JL
      Jack L.
      12 March 2020 @ 19:35
      +1 on this comment, suggestions to reduce counterparty risk at brokers would be appreciated.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 March 2020 @ 00:20
      Use more than one bank for cash balances to be inside deposit limits. Buy tbills in custody accounts.
  • JM
    Jake M.
    12 March 2020 @ 17:01
    Hi Raoul, should we get out of our short positions on risky assets before the FOMC meeting (march 17/18)? Hypothetically they might attempt something big to boost market confidence.
    • WM
      Will M.
      15 March 2020 @ 21:47
      Too late Jake!!! They have now moved with a huge stimulus package Sunday. Incredible
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 March 2020 @ 00:20
      Given where futures are trading. the 100bp cut did nothing to arrest the weakness in equities.
  • JW
    JW2 W.
    12 March 2020 @ 17:32
    This is (another) one to bookmark! The phases you outline here will provide very good guidance. I am starting to worry somewhat about having cash in banks, but I believe that elsewhere you also said you felt this was not so much a banking crisis - in the sense of banks going under. Any views on having cash in banks ? I am sure others are asking the same question judging from some of the comments in the comments sections here and there. Stay safe and take care as well.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      12 March 2020 @ 18:05
      That is a different phase. That would be towards the end of the year and into next year, in my best guess..
    • DM
      David M.
      12 March 2020 @ 21:11
      Something to think about, in the 08 financial crisis the financials led the way down... They are doing the same thing now, and nobody thinks banks will fail.. I'm not as optimistic.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 March 2020 @ 00:19
      The banks will not fail. The Fed can choose to shut its eyes to any supervisory breaches. However the system of dollar credit can collapse on itself. The shadow banking system can implode. Which would make credit very hard to get.
  • SN
    SAT N.
    12 March 2020 @ 17:45
    Could you please comment on the impact of $1T repo facility on our short positions?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      12 March 2020 @ 18:05
      Nothing.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 March 2020 @ 00:17
      Its there to stop the banks falling apart. It is hard to get that money where it needs to go.
  • SG
    Shawn G.
    13 March 2020 @ 01:47
    Would you keep SPY short and HYG short through next week? I'm thinking a market shutdown, or some kind of announcement will cause a face ripping rally.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 March 2020 @ 00:15
      The CB has thrown a lot at the market. It has done nothing. If we are like Italy, North America is going to see some truly terrible things in the next 9 days. Business will be shut down and rightly so. There are clearly disasterous stresses on the banking system. You can tell from the Feds incredibly aggressive responses. Whats most striking is that for all that, the Fed and the President have hardly slowed the sell off at all.
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    13 March 2020 @ 03:09
    Joined the party late... Is it too late for HYG shorts and selling off AUDs for UUP? Or best to hold out till things settle?
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      13 March 2020 @ 03:10
      To clarify: Is it too late to buy HYG puts?
    • YO
      Yoshitaka O.
      13 March 2020 @ 03:44
      I have the same quesiton - is it too late to buy HYG puts and SPY future puts? (at the levels recommended by Raoul in his prior update)
    • IB
      Ivan B.
      13 March 2020 @ 05:46
      Hi guys, I can share my experience. I only managed to buy HYG puts on Monday, when the market was all day limit down (talking about futures, Australia's time). It's just a small trade of 50 puts. HYG 06/19/2020 75.00 P 50 paid $3.31 currently trading $3.88 (as of close 12/03 US time) overall $2.8k up. It's not probably the best price and if markets rebound you can probably get cheaper. I just wanted to have some exposure and probably jump the gun a bit too soon... But I'm happy to add if there's a better deal. Cheers, Ivan
    • MP
      Matthew P.
      13 March 2020 @ 09:18
      Thanks Ivan.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 March 2020 @ 00:13
      Not sure Matthew. Probably not. There were some very interesting comments by Cyril in Julian's video which I recommend to you. He suggested there was no reason to short credit over equity. I suspect the truth is in between. There is a problem in credit, but shorting better quality credit is a bad idea. My guess is that maybe shorting BBB and below with a view to it losing its IG rating is the way to go. But if you are not familiar with these ideas best to be cautious.
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    13 March 2020 @ 04:46
    I can see Central Banks moving the global system over to a digital currency as this crisis unfolds, but I struggle to envision them embracing Bitcoin. They will want to enhance their powers, not give them away, which means a digital currency that they can issue and control. Bitcoin is the very opposite.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 March 2020 @ 00:10
      I totally agree with this point. But if there are government digital currencies, wouldn't that increase the attraction of bitcoin as the only viable non-government Electronic currency?
  • MP
    Marc P.
    15 March 2020 @ 01:38
    Would you guys advise to be out of Treasury Money Markets in a worst case scenario? Anyone can give me their thoughts?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      16 March 2020 @ 00:06
      If you mean Tbills no. If you mean small bank CP, well I doubt you will have a credit event, but really, whats the upside? Also, one of the lessons of 2008, was be careful whether your collateral can be rehypothecated. You may not get it back!
  • TF
    Thomas F.
    15 March 2020 @ 22:58
    What do you think will happen to the HKD when the Chinese devalue their currency as the USD spike breaks them?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      15 March 2020 @ 23:52
      I suspect the Chinese will defend the HK peg to the end. Much of the pressure will have dissipated if the Yuan is sharply depreciated. But maybe I am deluding myself.
  • NN
    Ninh N.
    15 March 2020 @ 16:16
    HV is super high due to Friday's rally. HV-5, -8, -20, -30. Spot VIX goes from 70s to 50s Friday, MarchVX elevated but doesn't matter since expiry is coming up, but watch AprilVX. TVIX will be 100% AprilVX on 3/18. So if spot VIX goes 70s to 50s to 30s. It's lower but VIX 30 "is still high," and with backwardation in vix futures this backwardated, imagine if AprilVX follows suit with Spot VIX and AprilVX drops similarly spot. TVIX would automatically lose a shed load of value. Goes along Raoul's mention of volatility and getting-out-of-risk positions. Stay safe everyone.
  • AP
    Ash P.
    15 March 2020 @ 15:32
    Raoul, good to be finally onboard with pro sub. Thanks for all you do. I'm long GDXJ and GLD - expiring a ways out (Dec and Jan respectively); GLD is still a profitable one but I've given back and then some on GDXJ. Would you wait it through to the 'other side' or bail? Cheers.
  • SA
    Saad A.
    15 March 2020 @ 13:41
    forgot to include the link https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-fed-idUKKBN211184
  • TA
    T A.
    13 March 2020 @ 16:19
    hi Raoul …. I have physical gold and I think you do as well … what is a wise move to do ? buy the dip ? at what levels ? any hedges ? many thanks
    • TA
      T A.
      13 March 2020 @ 16:20
      you mention downside risk ! … can you explain more where we might heading thanks again
  • RH
    Rob H.
    12 March 2020 @ 18:09
    Do you have a level you are looking to add to the Bitcoin trade? Do you think we double bottom on the lows of 2018?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      13 March 2020 @ 01:25
      Im too early as ever. I am looking to add into the puke. I have a very strong conviction in the 2 year + time horizon. sIze it like an option for now...
    • RH
      Rob H.
      13 March 2020 @ 14:56
      Thanks for the reply! Yes, I tend to be early too, that's why I never buy all at once. I have it sized as an option and it's a long term play for me. All mine are in cold storage so I don't trade it, just looking to add a few more when the time is right.
  • NN
    Nathan N.
    13 March 2020 @ 10:43
    Raoul, If you were 30 and locked into a corporate 401k plan, how would you allocate right now? I’m able to link 95% of my assets to a brokerage account through Fidelity, so I have much more access than the standard target date funds, etc. I’m primarily in cash right now (is FDRXX best place for this?), but a small % in GLD, GBTC, and TLT - although I’m weary of ETF’s.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      13 March 2020 @ 12:35
      Do they have a Gov fixed income mutual fund option?
    • NN
      Nathan N.
      13 March 2020 @ 14:30
      Not in the retirement plan, but just about everything in the brokerage link. Looking at WHOSX. Any fav tickers? And would you go 100% into one MF or spread into several?
  • SA
    Saad A.
    13 March 2020 @ 14:29
    Hi Raoul Thinking of taken a ”put” on oil, in your view what would be a good strike price and contract duration at this point? thank you in advance
  • TG
    Tom G.
    13 March 2020 @ 11:43
    Really appreciate the flash updates and guidance . My subscription/membership has paid for itself many many times over. I've been through dotcom and GFC busts , so I've seen this movie before but even with all that experience I didn't have a guide like I do this time . Thanks Raoul/Julian and all the team behind the scenes. Small area for improvement - sometimes I'm not receiving email about the updates - not that big a deal since I'm checking for updates regularly anyway :)
  • DP
    Dimple P.
    12 March 2020 @ 18:06
    Thanks Raol, Your calls have been spot on. Did not hear you mention status of HYG short and timeframe for holding it. Would appreciate your thoughts.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      13 March 2020 @ 01:25
      This phase until April probably. Then close and reset
    • SA
      Saad A.
      13 March 2020 @ 09:20
      Hi Raol.... Learning a lot. What do you mean by ” reset””
  • KG
    Kos G.
    12 March 2020 @ 16:31
    I've never touched FX market in my life, therefore I have to ask this question for educational purposes since these trades are coming. Basically since I don't have lots of money, just selling one currency against another won't provide enough reward. Hence, what are the typical ways to express one's thesis about EUR/USD in terms of options?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      12 March 2020 @ 16:46
      Correct or currency futures
    • TB
      Thibault B.
      12 March 2020 @ 16:49
      To make money in FX (like bonds), you really have to leverage your positions. Typically 10x. So you have to be careful too when outsized moves like the ones we've been seeing come around. Options are easier to manage (unfortunately the cost/implied vol exploded today): you can trade options on CME currency futures with any futures broker, options on CFDs with spreadbetters like IG (the spreads are wide here though, not recommended), or options on FX spot with Saxobank.
    • SA
      Saad A.
      13 March 2020 @ 09:14
      Thank you Thibault B very helpful
  • AP
    Alex P.
    12 March 2020 @ 19:53
    This is great as always end everything guys. One question, which platform/ broker do you suggest for trading puts and everything diff from FX? London or Italy based depends on convenience. Been trading FX for 4 years on and what to try this too. Appreciate
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      13 March 2020 @ 01:23
      IG/IB/Saxo
    • AP
      Alex P.
      13 March 2020 @ 07:57
      Thank you Raoul,
  • AA
    Alberto A.
    13 March 2020 @ 03:58
    Thank you Raoul. In a time when I was in transition from a corporate marketing career of 20+ years to my passion as a full time trader and macro apprentice :) you appeared. What a blessed. All my family is deeply grateful for your education and changing people's life. I have found my way and strategic framework as an options trader (selling premium for income) and macro trader for wealth. HUGE THANKS FOR ALL THE TRADE RECOS. YOU HAVE NO IDEA $$$$$$$$$. I have also saved my parents retirement. Yes!!!
  • ag
    amin g.
    12 March 2020 @ 18:11
    Raoul. just a follow up to my tweet to you. Ofcourse I'm not holding you to an exact timeline, but when you say this volatility ends by april and a pause then, are you referring to the equity down move? So then the markets temp bottom by then. ( 2min30 in your piece). but then the dollar shoots higher and then markets go down again? Apologies if this is too confusing
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      13 March 2020 @ 01:24
      Yes, stocks pause for several month, dollar explodes at that moment.
  • JS
    John S.
    12 March 2020 @ 18:33
    With a short position on HYG and your comment of liquidating all positions early April, do you include the HYG trade or hold till the credit markets collapse?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      13 March 2020 @ 01:23
      Hold.
  • JK
    James K.
    12 March 2020 @ 18:41
    Would like to get your thoughts on oil here. Thanks
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      13 March 2020 @ 01:23
      $20
  • ly
    lena y.
    12 March 2020 @ 19:00
    Thank you Raoul! You saved my retirement! I TOOK the boldest step of my life! The education you gave me since my enrolment(fall 2018) and paved me to the action liquidating my equity positions before this crash!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      13 March 2020 @ 01:23
      wow! incredible
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    12 March 2020 @ 20:49
    Anyone have a target Price on the Dow and S&P by April?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      13 March 2020 @ 01:22
      Not sure...its all a guess but 2000 on the SPX?
  • JD
    James D.
    12 March 2020 @ 22:52
    These updates are great, please keep doing them!
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    12 March 2020 @ 20:29
    Hey raoul, I guess we are expecting ricardian equivalence with the fed meeting next week as it affects our positioning particularly in $ trades? Short aud/usd on the table? 20 year head and shoulders and aus recession imminent. Amazing work...insane you called this since nov 2018
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    12 March 2020 @ 17:23
    Dear Raoul, Many thanks for your update. Sitting on handsome 'paper' profits on gold positions. If I understood you correctly, I should realise all or part of my profits, looking to buy back in at lower prices. All the best, and regards, Roy.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      12 March 2020 @ 18:05
      Correct.
  • JS
    Jim S.
    12 March 2020 @ 17:33
    Hey Raoul, I put a June straddle on my precious metal positions. It has worked out so far but wondering if you think it be wise to roll out of that or just carry on.. afraid that the the implied volatility will make the insurance too expensive to get back in come June. Thanks so much for your thoughts and the updates!
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      12 March 2020 @ 17:43
      You are long the straddle? I would argue they are 2 trades which are related. All option purchases I have done have worked out (I gamma hedge). As it happens all asset purchases I have done have not worked out. I think occupied trades are about to get whacked. If your precious metals trade is popular I would not be surprised if your puts go into the money. As for whether you should roll out a June position, the speed of this move suggests it may be all done (for good or bad) by June.
    • JS
      Jim S.
      12 March 2020 @ 18:05
      Thanks! Yes I was long out of the $ puts and calls, equal weight. And your right, I put this on long enough ago that I’ve made money on the increase in implied vol. planned on just using it to protect my position, but beginning to think that rolling everything out to cash might be the better option. Picked June because I thought we would have a much clearer picture of the landscape by then. Thanks for your help!
  • PM
    Philip M.
    12 March 2020 @ 17:31
    thx again for the updates.. extremely helpful, especially right now
  • AE
    Anthony E.
    12 March 2020 @ 16:00
    RSI on the ED trade is at 90. Do you recommend closing or wait for the next rate cut?
    • AE
      Anthony E.
      12 March 2020 @ 16:03
      PS - huge ditto on everyone thanking you for your guidance. Not many leaders out there truly driven to help folks.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      12 March 2020 @ 16:48
      This is in your hands now. I think there is a bit more juice to go but its final stages. Not my favourite trade anymore but I dont think its risky yet either (it will sell off hard at some point)
  • CA
    CARLOS A.
    12 March 2020 @ 16:25
    Hi Raoul, thanks this is very helpful. Do you think they could close the markets for a longer period of time if the fear keeps increasing, and if that were the case what would be your advice to manage that risk?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      12 March 2020 @ 16:47
      I just dont know. When they closed in 2002 after 9/11 I was trapped in trade but it opened in my favour and I then took profits (i didn't trade the event, I happened to be positioned for the second leg of the economic slowdown)
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    12 March 2020 @ 16:44
    Re FX trades on non deliverable ccies (MXN, KRW), how can we easily execute as mere retail humans? Re Gold, the gold/silver ratio is now above 100. Has anyone got a view on the [4*QI-GC] May spread ? Re our shorts, in 2008 i was risk managing and basically selling all the hedge fund shares I could, similarly with mutual funds due to portfolio insurance mechanism (at play now, per Chris Cole). So I can't recall but we've just had the worst SX5E day on record, few more weeks of that, really? I recall Raoul writing 4 very difficult weeks ahead and thinking to myself, wow 4 weeks is long. Sorry for the qualitative comment, my trading conflicts with my emotions, I'm looking for an anchor different than technical analysis. Thanks for TLT vs futures, I suspect bond futs was the way to implement neatly between late jan and late feb as well... please Raoul, without being an exactist, we love to know what your favourite way to express a trade is. Thanks, and thanks again.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      12 March 2020 @ 16:46
      We are getting towards the end of the bond trade but 30's 10's 2's and ED futures.
  • TB
    Thibault B.
    12 March 2020 @ 16:22
    Fantastic Raoul thank you. Short but profound, will need to re-listen several times. re. USD vs G10... we're getting a shot across the bow right now!
  • IB
    Ivan B.
    12 March 2020 @ 16:17
    Thank you for the update, Raoul. Really appreciate your time and effort. This couldn't come at better time, was just thinking about the bond position, some confusing moves out there.
  • AP
    ANTHONY P.
    12 March 2020 @ 16:15
    Thanks Raoul, much appreciated!
  • SH
    Sean H.
    12 March 2020 @ 16:08
    Thanks Raoul, much appreciated
  • BK
    Bruce K.
    12 March 2020 @ 16:06
    Gracias Raoul for the super-timely insight. Even six minutes of your time is invaluable right now. Sincerely appreciated!
  • MD
    Mike D.
    12 March 2020 @ 16:00
    Very grateful for your frequent updates, Raoul. Your perspective is virtually priceless.
  • JP
    Joseph P.
    12 March 2020 @ 15:34
    Raoul, these ongoing updates proving invaluable. Appreciate you staying true to providing regular insights during this wild and busy time for you. You are a hero in my book!
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      12 March 2020 @ 15:56
      Thanks. I have lost any free time I ever had with all this going on! But Im doing my best...