Comments
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MBBeyond UUP and related UUP calls, is there any way to play the short side of specific currencies like GBP without using Futures contracts?
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JMRaoul, US government just announced unlimited QE. Does your thesis of strong dollar in the short term still hold?
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MBThe only think I don't like about Raoul's videos is his habit of saying "The reason being is . . .". Everything else 5*.
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MTJust curious Raoul, after watching Julian's video today, what (or what levels) would make you change your position on GBP or Yen? Bitcoin I understand is a longer term trade.
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CFWonder what the time horizon for a strong dollar thesis is.. two to three months? Quarters?
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JSLooking for thoughts on using GBTC for 401K/IRA exposure... I don't know any other way to get exposure to it in those accounts. Also with BTC, any feelings on whether we should be using cold storage right now or getting interest via BlockFi, maybe 50/50 split? Would any ETH exposure be prudent? Any and all opinions welcome.
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SDHow liquid is UUP?
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MJI'm curious as to your preference for either Put Options or short futures contracts on the recommended currencies. Is there still the same concern over the markets closing for us buying GBP, JPY and EUR put options? I assume this isn't a huge issue as the volatility you described for the HYG and SPX isn't an issue here? If options are a good play what time scale are we looking at for the expiry? July? I'm still working on choosing the most suitable strike prices too. Any advice would be greatly appreciated.
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KSThis is maybe too soon but I can't help worrying about civil disruption. The empty streets and sudden quietness feels sinister like something unexpected is gestating. Raoul, you have incredibly long legs to step so easily from market to market and continent to continent. It takes a lot of scurrying about to follow you!
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AEI've read that Gov Intervention in the currency market is the biggest threat to this trade. Is this on your roadmap short term?
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SSI thought about that perhaps the easiest way to make this trade is to go Long US Dollar Futures ticker DXM0. You're essentially long USD vs EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD and SEK all in one trade. It is heavily weighted towards Euros though (over 55%) Currently trading at 101ish and looking for it to hit over 120 like it did in 2002. Any thoughts? @Raoul would greatly appreciate your insights on this along with the wonderful RV community.
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FTRaoul, on the USD trade: I also have it on since a while as I thought the GFC was also a good playbook of what moves are possible if the dollar strengthens. However, I begin to wonder what happens if the Coronavirus hits the US really brutally (relatively harder than others), which could be the case due to lack of testing, slow reaction etc. Do you think this should be part of the equation for the USD trade or is the USD shortage in the system and the forces that are at play still dominating in such a scenario ? Many thanks, Fabian
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JCIs it possible to get an ideal month and strike for UUP calls?
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DHHi guys, I have been trying to trade UUP options now for a couple days. Keep getting told contract is not available. Is this a broker issue or anyone else been getting the same? Cheers, Dean
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MJHow do you feel about BTC futures? My guess is the volatility BTC and potential for manipulation means the RR isn't worth it and just to stick with owning them personally?
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JSGiven massive governments and central banks (+Fed, rates, REPO, asset purchases CP&Notes, swap lines, etc) reactions, you think the window of vulnerability is closed? have their effort change your view? Seem some of the USD liquidity concerns are being quickly addressed. Thank you.
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DMRaoul, would you mind saying why you prefer UUP over something like USDU?
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LGRaoul, what’s the best ewallet platform for a EU citizen in your opinion?
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JWJust wanted to add my appreciation for the RV team’s work.
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MPMade the 3k subscription overnight on UUP!! Thanks Raoul
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wjSo swap lines comming and the dollar still moving up! Its sorta funny to see central banks cant control ANYTHING!
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AAThanks. Last time the thesis was working spot on. But the Fed open Swap Lines with several countries. Can you explain the implications? I'm assuming the Dollar will keep neutral until the music stop?
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SSAlready got stopped out of USD vs GBP, USD vs BRL and USD vs AUD. Bad day at the office for me.
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ASTwo questions 1) What will make you change your strong US$ thesis? 2) Will the pegs break - HKD, AED and the likes?
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JQJust putting out something interesting happening. Physical gold brokers in HK are all out of good to sell today People preparing the worst
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SS@Raoul. If you was buying options on UUP, what strike and expiry date would you consider in order to get the largest move. As my trading account is in GBP, could I just play GBPUSD by being Short, rather than Long USDGBP?
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QMRaoul- what is your thought on euro$ here. I assume it’s moving backwards due to Libor going up with funding issues. When do you see it moving towards 100 or 99.8 which is my target. Thanks.
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GOI Keep my dry powder in GBP. Should I convert it to USD? Cheers.
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JMIf I want to take advantage of this environment in my 401K...and the only reasonable funds I believe are available (FGOVX & FRGXX) which is best to allocate to? I already played the bond scenario with VBMPX... I appreciate the guidance. Thank you!
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RKReally appreciate the updates. How about TLT, is this call game over or good reason to add more now? Or get out quickly? TLT 170 calls April 17
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LTHello Raoul, The game you were referring to is Whack-a-Mole I am so glad to be finally able to bring something helpful to the RV commentaries :)
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KJWhack-A-Mole. That's the game you were thinking of, Raoul! On a more serious note, thank you and Julian for your consistent updates and for founding Real Vision. As an engineer in my mid-twenties, I was initially skeptical of spending $3k for RV Pro, but now I definitely think it's worth it. It's been such an education to listen to your frameworks and hear the logical progression backed by hard data. I wish I had gotten this in the economics and finance courses I took in college. I have never done any forex trading because I don't have a good grasp of the fundamental drivers of currencies. Do you know any good resources out there (books, websites, articles), that can give me a framework of what drives changes in currency values against each other? Every resource I've found on google has not been that informative. I want something meaty and rigorous like your reports. Thank you, Kevin
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GKRaoul is UUP a good way to play the USD surge game?
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ADThank you for all your work these past few weeks. What is your guess on the size of the move in the dollar ... on the order of 30%, 50%?
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NRBonds closed? Hmmm. Inflation breakevens, Fed will follow BOJ on curve control. 30-year going to 50 bps once margin calls done? Actual question.
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YOIs the transcript for this available?
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SSThank you Raoul!!!
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JSThanks for the update! Wondering what to do with my 529, only get 2 trades per year in that thing, rotated to bonds in early Feb so I’m left with either rotating back to equities or rotating to an interest bearing account and hope they give me a 3rd trade with all the volatility we’ve seen so that I can put it back to equities. Opinions/comments are much appreciated.
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BSI'll join the choir and say thanks. I'm sure this update is timely as ever. You're on 🔥
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NNRaoul, thanks for the update. Thoughts on GBTC as a way to play bitcoin?
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RGThanks a lot Raoul
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gb@Raoul Thank you for the updates! We really appreciate them. You said you've closed all your positions and only have Bitcoin and Dollars. Do you have positions in gold? I've never traded Forex so looking into how to trade now. If anyone can point me in the right direction that would be great. Thank you and all stay safe!
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SAWhack-a-mole! I don’t understand. if the USD is the “big horror over there” why are we making a bullish call on it?
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FKRaoul, I've closed out all my shorts during this video. Regardless where the market goes from here you helped me make 5 figures (ok low 6 figures as I didn't risk too much but hey!). Thanks for all your hard work and guidance. Much appreciated.
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FOStellar stuff. Views on SEK/USD? It made a big move today, also the Norwegian krona
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AARaoul, would you be kind enough to spell out "This game is all about intelligent risk-taking and I see an opportunity to be REALLY big in the dollar trade with less volatility and less headline risk. You can get good leverage in currency futures and option too". Specifically which option and futures trades would you recommend? Thanks so much for all you are doing for the retail investor. Andrew
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PCThanks for your work, Raoul... Absolutely heroic.
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POGreat update Raoul: I'm executing on your dollar thoughts now ☺️
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WMThank you so much Rauo;. Your short recos have made me 500% which way covers my losses on gold stocks at the moment. I appreciate you taking the time out to keep us updated!!!!!!
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WTRaoul, would long dollar ETF's like UUP be a decent way to play this ? I'm unfamiliar with currency trades. Thank Much !
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LYSimilar to a post below, my account is in CAD - does it make sense to convert a portion to USD? And then buy UUP (or UUP options)?
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ATRaoul Pal....you fucking legend.
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APPerhaps we need hourly updates...
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JUMr. Pal Is it foolish to keep large sums of dollars in US money markets? Such as SPAXX..
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SDI really appreciate these updates.
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mpdid Raoul say at the very end "buy dollars, wear diamonds"? Didnt quite catch it. Also I wanted to ask if there is any hope for biotech equities that will benefit directly from the virus to rally massively in the coming months? GILD, INO, MRNA?
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OThttps://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/u-s-virus-plan-anticipates-18-month-pandemic-and-widespread-shortages/ar-BB11ktjA?ocid=msedgntp Us Government report predicts 18 month pandemic
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SS@Raoul. Which 1-2 currency pairs vs the USD offers the best risk/reward if getting into a position today? It seems like the large USD/GBP move has already been made hence why I am asking.
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EvExcuse me for this newbie question... Does this also mean closing the position with the HYG Puts? Since it seems that trade just started.
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PMRaoul, thank you once again. Very grateful for all this... have made a packet, and learnt so much... my head is exploding but a small price to pay.
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SSThanks Raoul for the Herculean efforts for keeping us in the loop.
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SGcan hedge funding issues in 1 tick put spreads ie. EDMO 99.125/99.00. positions like this, also, can work and offer hedges to the structural constraints/fault lines in the system.
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BKEXTRAORDINARY update, Raoul! Thank you for the clear and explicit "call to action" ... as well as explaining the rationale. Can't ask for anything more. KUDOS.
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CHCrazy day so far