Invesco has EFTs for some of the currencies. You can buy puts on those. For example FXB, FXC, FXE, FXY.

USDU is an ETF that is long the US dollar and is weighted heavily against KR and JP.

I'm taking my lumps but Raoul is sticking with this trade and I'm sticking with him. This is from his Twitter feed today: Alex Martell @BAMartelly · 10h @RaoulGMI are you still max long dollars? Quote Tweet Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI · Mar 18 The Dollar and Bitcoin is all I got right now. Im adding to bitcoin and Im max long dollars (vs EUR,GBP, AUD, BRL, MXN, KRW, CNY, JPY). Good luck. This is not a drill. Show this thread Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI Replying to @BAMartelly Yes, absolutely. 4:16 AM · Mar 24, 2020

haha.. didn't realise

F that the worst verbal tick in finance right now is McCullough’s “again”, God bless him. I’m a very happy subscriber of his, but I wish I could shake his hand and beg him to stop!

I think it is the largest AUM of any of the $ ETFs, a lot of open interest on the options too.. more than USDU.

I agree. Old Forbes article said "63% Of Americans Don't Have Enough Savings To Cover A $500 Emergency". Not being able to feed your family creates a challenge. I always found Ray Dalio's discussions about this risk pretty interesting

For instance my GBP sell just turned around completely

Correct, as today the Bank of England cut rates. The Pound went up on that towards 1.18 against the USD but now is back below 1.15

Thanks for the info. So, we just have to hold through the fires?

a move against you like that from 1.15 to 1.18 is a lot if you've bought futures which uses a lot of leverage. That's why I got stopped out on USD/GBP trade along with USD/AUD USD/BRL, USD/CAD even though later in the day a lot of them reversed which was so frustrating, but you can't win them all. That's why it might be a good idea when making trade suggestions to put in ideal levels to enter the trade and stop loss etc.

I always like to 'build up' a trade. So I start with a certain amount and keep adding once it goes the right way. If you're full in from the start and it goes against you in the beginning that can be very annoying indeed.

There are also micro currency futures /M6BM20 is what I've been using, 1/10th the size of the /6B so you can be a little more nimble if you want. I've also traded the micro on the Euro and Aussie but haven't seen any others with currencies.

Yup. Love it.

Are DX options viable?

There are DXM0 options available but very little trade (what I've seen so far). I think I prefer UUP call options. DXM0 and UUP have the same components: Euro 57.60% Japanese Yen 13.60% British Pound 11.90% Canadian$ 9.10% Swedish Krona 4.20% Swiss Franc 3.60%

The question about "Are DX options viable?" Well, how about Futures Options?

Unfortunately the 28 and 29 calls have soared this morning......

28 Strike, June 19th Expiry. It doubled at open today but has fallen significantly again. I bought at 0.75. It went up to over 1.70 and is now around 0.86

So, we are looking at a possible 10-20% rise in the UUP from here? Has there been given any target on this? Couldn't find it. Hope somebody can let me know. Tx!

@Daniel. If Dollar rips as Raoul predicts, UUP should be up much more than 20%. Like 35+ on UUP. If that happens my options on UUP should return 7-8x. UUP consists of the following: Euro - 57.60% Japanese Yen - 13.60% British Pound - 11.90% Canadian$ - 9.10% Swedish Krona - 4.20% Swiss Franc - 3.60%

I had a similar problem. Called the broker and they sorted it.

These are good questions @JS, hope the folks at RV can give us some guidance here.

UUP much more liquid.

Hell yeah!

Funny how the paper price is falling isn't it?

June 19, 28 calls are still quite cheap at 0.76 or 29 at 0.50

*NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE* but I bought the 6/19/2020 $28 strike this morning and holding. You could argue that shorter duration might be a better play if you think there will be a mad scramble for $s sooner rather than later and the Fed will be too slow to react, but think they will still eventually respond and devalue in short order.

@Max. Thanks. Yep I bought June 19th calls with 28 Strike for 0.75. I also shorted GBPUSD and EURUSD Futures.

Thank you Max ..... how can they devalue? Interest rates at Zero and they are printing $ bad out pf hell. Pls explain.

@Saad A. I'm not encouraging this, suggesting that it will happen, or downplaying potential consequences but I'm reminded of the famous Ben Bernanke quote from his 60 Minutes interview in 2009... "...we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It's much more akin to printing money than it is to borrowing." If they want to increase the amount they are printing and the will is there it is as easy to go 10x as adding a zero.

@Max .... clear and thank you!

Yes fortune favors the fast.... I got into UUP before the market closed yesterday...great. However, those 28 and 29 June calls soared first thing and are now up to double the premium figures mentioned here.

To money market fund (FRGXX) or not- that is my question.

Im not sure.

haha

Would live the ressources to :)

Yes, this was commented before below or in the other 18 March report

Yes Raoul. Any idea in terms of target price for UUP or DX futures? Much appreciated

Forgive belaboring the Bond question. I hear and can sympathize with “all the juice squeezed” outlook. My observation is that the Fed is a fairly unimaginative bunch and has repeated verbatim the same tools and strategies as in 2008. The results are similarly stillborn. They are creatures of habit (model). They will crush the curve just like Japan to defend “full faith and credit” to their dying breath. Ergo, Bond trade stays on or gets added to. I know I will be excoriated for saying this but I think long USD could be an extremely dangerous trade at this juncture. I say this as a huge believer in Santiago Capital’s Milkshake Theory. That belief notwithstanding, it behooves all global parties to devalue the dollar. These are politicians. They will take the most expedient and opaque road. A massive coordinated USD devaluation could literally come at any moment. It’s simply a question of an exogenous bazooka of unknown ferocity and duration. Understandably, Churchill’s dictum about Americans making the right decision after trying everything else still holds. The higher USD pain trade could run for awhile. To me, it’s simply too dangerous a trade when all price insensitive parties want the opposite.

You can’t change the reserve currency status overnight, no matter how many trading parties want this...

Thank you Raoul. It feels like I’m playing w Jordan secretly on my squad! I closed my HYG June 75 puts at 5.50 today. Bought them at 2.90 last Wednesday. RP is a LEGEND🙏🏻

And FWIW, I've been a MI subscriber for 3 yrs now, and the education you've provided is priceless. I don't always agree with you, but you've taught me how to 'fish' and I can't thank you enough for that. You are truly making a difference in people's life. Sorry the burboun is talking here LOL

Its now trading at a discount, so make sense.

Does't look like it's at a discount: https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/discount_or_premium_to_nav https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTC:US?sref=0n5XhnHr

Same boat here. A MI member posted how to trade EDs a few months ago, really helped a lot of us. Hoping someone in our community can do the same with Forex.

I'm able to get access to major currencies through my regular brokerage account (TD Ameritrade, IB, etc). But finding it hard to get access to forex options, and exotic currencies (Brazilian Real, etc.). Any pointers would be helpful. ETFs like UUP and EMB are simpler to use and probably gets you the same exposure. What are the downsides to using these instruments compared to directly trading forex?

Would love to know to :)

The dollar shortage is the biggest horror. Its the biggest structural flaw in the system.

Low 6 figures was a typo!

go long dollar futures. would seem the best way to go if you dont have clarity on the expiration and strike price with options

Sorry added together instead of averaging....... it was only 250% !!!

Yup.

Yes

Perhaps I need to keep my sanity ;-)

piyama party @ little cayman

Take care of yourself first, Raoul. You've done so much for everyone already. Thank you.

Don't you have underlings? Delegate!

Thanks for Real Vision! I look forward to every update!

Buy dollars, wear diamonds. I have no clue in biotech Im afraid..

Yes, that’s what he said. I had to listen twice.

If it drags on this much and is this bad, SPX will go to 1000

CHY, JPY, GBP, AUD, EUR, KRW, etc

You do you. I will be back in that trade but I like the risk reward of dollars even more