Ok so Raoul seemingly tweeted this morning this dollar play is an 18 month window https://twitter.com/raoulgmi/status/1245675314744905728?s=21 This makes me a little concerned about my boatload of UUP calls expiring in September :O

Question for those of you with UUP calls, do you have standing GTC limit sells out there already, or watching this like a hawk? Just wondering how you are trying to get out of this trade if it is a violently short squeeze

I must admit am new to RV (4 weeks now) and am not sure what to make of this silent treatment? Any veterans among us cuz your views are most appreciated ..... Any one with more than one year with Pro RV? Trying to letter understand my space here

Do the new repo lines to be opened for other central banks in addition to the Swap lines change the thesis on the dollar trade? https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-is-settling-into-its-role-as-the-worlds-central-bank-11585732095?mod=article_inline "The Fed will allow foreign central banks to use their U.S. government bonds as collateral for short-term dollar borrowing, under its new repo facility. The scheme begins April 6 and is scheduled to last six months." " It augments other existing facilities like the dollar-swap lines that the Fed has already expanded."

I closed most of my positions in Raoul's FX trade today. There are two primary reasons: First, Julian explained that he expected a very steep decline at the end of the napalm run; I'm concerned that recent price action suggests he may be right. Maybe the Fed pulled it off, at least for now. Second, Raoul's Twitter feed includes a comment to the effect that he thought the Fed's recent actions could postpone the timing of the trade (without specific guidance I have to assume some of my options could become worthless by then). I'm disappointed to see this on Twitter but not here: Conversation Thomas Underwood @AussieUnderwood · Mar 24 Hi @RaoulGMI , a temporary reversal (dead cat bounce) was to be expected in the markets. What are the chances this unprecedented monetary policy kicks the implosion can down the road another few years? Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI Replying to @AussieUnderwood We cant tell but I think limited chance. it kicks it into the late summer, I think. 10:59 AM · Mar 24, 2020 I may be looking for a better entry point in the future. For now, I wish you all the best of luck.

Wishing you well Steve. I'm waiting for the "all's clear" from the powers that be before re-entry.

Watching Forex and for the first time in what seems an eternity, the USD crash may have paused. Guidance from JB and RP would be received like feet for the lame. What do you think now boys? Has a consensus emerged? Buy, sell, or hold? To/at what levels?

Could this movement simply be some kind of month end rebalancing (i.e., merely a head-fake)? Another question I have is whether the Fed and/or the US Gov has any other types of tools (besides swap lines) that it may apply to FX in the future. For example, could we see an official devaluation/reset of the dollar by proclamation? Could the Gov give the Fed the power to buy foreign securities and/or debt? Anything else?

An update on the USD trade would be amazing... it’s already down 3% since the initial trade recommendation. Does Raoul not use stops? I am aware Julian is very disciplined with his stops

@Raoul P. Do you still expect the USD to run stronger? Surely the likes of EUR have peaked given month end?

I thought to share the below interview with Brent Johnson explaining this ” dollar milkshake” trade, I found it insightful and and learnt a lot. https://youtu.be/blaySIwqJOY I believe it's a couple of days old..., Enjoy and stay safe......

Just re-entered the Short GBP/USD trade at 1.23. Its run up a lot in the past week.

I’m guessing many people are getting screwed on the USD long trade now. Grief

A few assorted thoughts - Should we revisit the gold up/dollar up trade bantered around last year? Possible for gold and USD to rise together in these circumstances. If USD goes down, then gold will rise. So there is a hedge still that could be included. I aslo remember Raoul commenting, that the dollar run would particularly be a risk when the hypervolatility settled, after the end of this month. But again, not quite clear on the timing expectation. When I look at the big charts (S&P, USD, etc) it still looks on a rudimentary basis, that this could be eye of the storm stuff. Julian mentioned we will know over the next couple of days/week whether nuclear winter USD risk had been snuffed. Guess we're close to that point, but not conclusive. At what point would Julian declare nuclear-winter averted?

@realvision, Would it be possible to create some sort of forum on trades instead of just below a video. On that forum we can exchange information. I find the stuff I'm reading here very insightfull. The disadvantage is that after a few new videos, everybody moves along and nobody posts here anymore regarding the UUP trade, for instance. It could have the structure of a forum with several subjects. I think that would be a big extra for subscribers.

for those of you interested, I have created a google group called rv-rpo-forum (yes, I misspelled it abit to have small visibility to the outside world) If you are interested, either create a gmail account (if you dont have google account or you dont want to reveal your person gmail) or you can use your existing gmail. And paste a message like below in the flashupdate comments section "join rv-rpo-forum: example@gmail.com" I will send the invite. This way I know it's from a pro member.

I dont know which way the USD will go except I expect it is going to be volatile. Everything is else is volatile. Some of the hysteria and panic (both personal and financial) over Covid-19 is starting to abate (for now). I expect there will be a second wave when reality of the damage on main street sets in. But no-one knows the new reality and what it means personally (health / jobs), the effect on the economy, and the disconnected financial markets. The USD was extended from its breakout and a pull back was expected. I guess the question is when the second wave effects of Covid kicks in does the USD follow through...

Can we get an update regarding Raoul's suggested FX, UUP, TLT, etc trades?

Purely my thought: Roger from the March 25 daily briefing also holds the same view as Raoul that dollar will rise. Regarding the timeline, he really thinks the market has already priced in all the aggressive deleveraging recently for the dollar (hence the recent spike in dollar index before the fall). What hasn't been priced in is the impact of the shutdown around the world on the dollar debt driven service sector around the world. In particular, dollar debt, lack of demand due to shutdown, non-US unlimited QE, all these factors will play out in the next 2-3 weeks to 3-4 months to drive dollar higher. Since the news headline recently has been US centric (QE, fiscal stimulus, etc) and its effect seems to be clearly on driving dollar lower, I think maybe I will wait a little until the theme changes. The dollar index drop might be good opportunity to buy cheap.

Question for Julian: You mentioned beaten up leveraged mortgage REITs (like EARN) in your last update as well. You like this for a snap back trade because it is so beaten up but what is the macro tailwind behind the trade? -Is it the FED buying unlimited MBS now? -Is the current macro environment - lower rates etc. positive or negative for this asset class? Just trying to understand your idea. Thanks.

A bit disappointed to learn that Raoul's conviction to the US dollar is less than it appeared last week based on his view of moving money to "US dollars NOW". Seems to me one would think when you shout NOW, the strength of that conviction would be rock solid, not, 'well, ya, maybe' less than a week later.

my June $UUP calls are down 60%. After watching this video I am wondering about the timeline of this "napalm run"...

Even if if Raoul's dollar thesis is right, I think it would be worthwhile for him to give a RV pro talk deep diving some of the tactical strategies he employ to enter his positions. On the $UUP calls for instance, in hindsight, the IV for UUP was super high (possibly all time high) when he said "NOW" is the time to enter dollar in his Flash Update. I should've tactically added UUP call options a little by little as the IV drops.

Hi Raoul, For people who haven't close the put option position on S&P, would you say it is the better to close it in current situation or wait a few more weeks to see if there is any drop. Thanks!

Am I the only one nervous that the unemployed report tomorrow is going to nuke our dollar bull position? XD

Thanks for the update gentlemen. @Raoul - what would a “debt deflation” look like It seems to me that the administration is caught in a dilemma between preserving jobs versus preserving lives. Awful situation.

Raoul, I love your thesis thesis on the dollar. But, I need to understand it better. You are essentially saying that with the shutdown of global trade/business, corporations who have 13T of USD debt, are not going to get any dollars that they would have otherwise used to make debt payments. So, they need to look for dollars somewhere else. Now, after losing all this business, If these corporations remain solvent, then they will create demand for more dollars, yes. But, why can't this demand be met by going to their local bank, who in turn goes to the country's central bank, who in turn has access to the swap line? If these corporations don't remain solvent in this scenario, then there is no demand created anyways.

Raoul & Julian, Sometime can you all discuss if the 50% stock 50% bonds portfolio is still a good strategy.  It seems with interest rates so low they will not provide much of a hedge for stocks plus bonds do not provide any income. What should we do with the fixed income part of ones portfolio? Julian, you had mentioned dividend paying stocks?  If inflation picks up will stocks do better than bonds in that scenario?

Should the fact that an exit on the dollar trade hasn’t been mentioned mean that there will be plenty of time to exit? I’m a bit nervous now to hear decent opposition to the dollar thesis, and uncertainty around the timing even if there is another run upwards how long before it crashes

Every small/medium business client I have spoken with over the past week already have sales already down 50%+. Some have only a few weeks cash. Firings have well and truly begun. I think WH has some advance numbers and they are scared to death. Personally believe reopening is a mistake until end of April at the earliest but Julian’s comment on guns is well taken. I had dismissed comments around that subject before but if job losses go to 20% for six months...Houston we have a problem. When PMI and unemployment data roll out and everyone is with their kids (for us, April 24th minimum) all day for weeks, staring at their 401(k) balance and worried about their job....today will definitely be a dead cat.

Julian said the Fed probably won't write off the debt holders. Would it be a play to go HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) long right now?

Thanks for the timely flash update. We have indeed a dollar dilemma. I hear both thesis and it makes sense. I understand that even if central banks solve the plumbing through the swap lines, this is still a loan between banks, therefore demand for dollars anyways as the debt is in dollars. Is this correct? If so, the I guess the strengthen dollar thesis has more probability to work out. Thoughts please?

I work in WM for one of the largest US banks, and as I write this we have stopped trading in XAU for clients - complete halt! Yesterday bid/offer spread on XAU were $20 wide. And then GS comes out with buy Gold reco for their clients. Something's brewing up.

does any one know where I can look at LIBOR OIS spread on a daily basis?

Julian, can you please confirm how are you buying the physical ? futures, etc or physical? hearing potential trouble at COMEX delivering the underlying Silver. Any views? thanks

agree with JB that we are in the bounce now. I am largely missing it. I suspect most people are largely missing it. it dawned on me this morning that it is completely logical for the snapback to be as quick as the sell-off. there is a lot of bad news that is going to hit over the next month. the supposed stimulus still needs to get thru Pelosi's crazy congress. it' also not clear whether or not the fiscal package will be productive at all for economic growth going forward - unlikely. separately, I was a bit taken aback by the headlines overnight re: countries cutting back on food exports, but it's logical given the uncertainty. hard not to see bonds continue to rally for now.. the world really only has one financial asset safe-haven market for the time being .. and, so RPs $ view likely has a lot of room to run (after some consolidation after the largest monthly outside reversal in the $-index I recall ever seeing). man, I wish I was back in the seat!!!!

Got stoped out $UUP - good luck guys....

Thank you for the Flash Update ... As always, super interesting to listen to you thrash out your ideas ... My two pennies worth ... On the dollar shortage, here's an interesting artcile by Daniel Lacalle, which argues for a sustained strengtheing in the US$ (if not, then, a dollar that is unlikely to weaken) ... Link: https://www.dlacalle.com/en/despite-massive-qe-and-congress-bill-the-us-dollar-shortage-intensifies/#more-10668 Also, for context, Zoltan Pozsar's article is superb ... Link: https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=emcmt&document_id=1082246841&serialid=0b2M%2FIRv1F1JMLaFoTy3mHLeusulr%2F%2Bi2siJQjbrrwI%3D&cspId=1929372245381636096 For illustrative purposes ... If I'm looking athe data correctly, UK banks still seem to be 'very' short of US$ ... BoE US$ repo operations can be accessed through BoE website ... LINK: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/bank-of-england-market-operations-guide/our-tools Scroll down towards the bottom of the page for data. (UK Banks have borrowed a total of $33.405 billion since 18 March $8.210 billion 7-day funds + $7.245 billion 84-day funds; 23 March $500 million 7-day funds; 24 March $3.555 billion 7-day funds; 25 March $7.705 billion 84-day funds + $6.685 billion 7-day funds) Presumably, if the US$ shortage cannot be alleviated but continues to intensify, then we trully have the risk of a 'global great depression' ... And that's when my gradnfather got wiped out ...

$UUP getting dumped today, same as yesterday. We had a good run last week but maybe just a correction.

Raoul, thanks for clarifying your conviction. But, what is the timeline you are looking at for the dollar trade to play out? Several months? For instance, is Jun 19 Call at 28 on UUP a little too early? Maybe we should wait till some kind of technical reversal back to bull to get in?

Gentlemen, Japan just used the Fed swap lines to get $32 billion into private hand yesterday. The EU and the UK will hold similar dollar operations today 3/25 and Norway, Sweden, and Denmark will do the same tomorrow 3/26. May I ask? Will the result of these operations provide us with any substantial guidance with respect to the FX trade? If so, what should we look for? Thanks.

Thanks so much for the great trade recommendations. Possible to comment on suggested sizing of positions as well next time?

Can you to get Jeff Snider back on for his views on US$ plumbing. He's the guru on this. His latest blog suggests a flight from US$ and Treasury yields is not a real concern until growth and inflation pick up on the other side of this crisis. Until then the collateral shortage goes on.

Hold the guns mate. we all going back to work in 3-4 weeks. hahaha. great update <serious>

Really appreciate these flash updates.

What did Julian say at the very end? Was a little hard to hear. Did he say, “I am a seller of rallies.”?

I appreciate the clarification/update, especially on the respective FX trade expectations.

Can you provide the transcript of the call? Thanks

Good to see the disagreements