Comments
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BSI capitulated and bought some HYG puts even though I expected a bounce. Anyone else wondering who the hell is selling/writing these??
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APThis is a great update Paul, also spent time reading all the comments below. Can anyone suggest a way to buy US10Y, I am based in London. Many thanks
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JWGents, first of all, thanks. Raoul, your explanation of "why bonds not equity puts" made more sense to me than anything else I've ever read, and with a few months study I was comfortable enough to enter futures positions. I went in slowly though, and have started to exit slowly. Based on your comments on "keep the fixed income if you've got it" and "rates are going to zero" I'm curious about how you would/will exit your remaining EZD positions, or if you're likely to re-establish anything more than a "scalping" or "trading" position.
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TWThese video updates to get your thinking in real-time are excellent. Great addition for the “Give a man a fish he eats for a day; teach a man to fish he eats for a lifetime” ideology of Real Vision.
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BKFantastic real-time update from RealVision, thank you Raoul! [happy I clicked on the RVTV website this morning ... I did not get an email alert on this Flash Update]
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MJRaoul, Just curious as to the time scale of the HYG puts and the implications of the Gov looking to pursue federal aid for shale companies. Are they likely to artificially keep the HYG above our strike beyond Jun? Cheers
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SHCan anyone recommend a way to short the Real using options?
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CPRaoul, I'd like you to clarify whether you mean gold the metal and/or gold minors. If you are referring to just one of the two, would you offer an opinion on the other?
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DM@Raoul What do you think about shorting the R2000 instead of the S&P? The performance of the Russell has been inferior, and seems to show more downside than the other indexes as it is more US focused stocks, and as cases in the US spike I feel like this could be even more vulnerable. What's your guys thoughts?
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SDThanks, Raoul! That was really great. Please keep giving these flash updates they're terrific.
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CDThese flash updates on video are FANTASTIC - exactly what i'm looking for, and judging by other comments what many are looking for. If a transcript came out after the video then those who want the transcript for filing can get it too - seems like a win win!
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VRRaoul - thank you for what you, Julian and the team are doing, and have done for us little guys our here. I did well also with your bond and euro dollar recommendations and closed those positions also when recommended. Hoping you will let us know, alert/update, there is enough of a pull back to re-enter, such as TLT, /ZB, /ZN, /GE, etc. Again, thank you, one of my small account has nearly doubled since mid-January following your recommendations. Let us know about bonds, please!!!
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JMRaoul, Trump said he's going to provide big economic reliefs like payroll tax cut. Still awaiting detail, but what's your take of this on the outlook of risky asset like equities?
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ASIdeas Raoul mentioned Keep it simple: short s&p & hyg (even after today's big drop) Less simple: short brazilian real, mexican peso, and/or korean won vs USD Hold bonds if still have them, because cut to 0 likely Not time to buy safe assets, but short risky assets is better risk/reward Not yet time to buy more bitcoin
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MKHello Raoul , great calls and insight. It may sound amateurish as a comment but i want to say it as i was placed on various plays , eg. the eurodollars bet and i got carried out and sold earlier. Is it possible to have some video on when to take profits on those type of macro-plays? Thanks
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CDHow about puts on EMB ? It consolidates the short views on emerging currencies & oil producers (as of Mar 6th top holdings: (Qatar, Brazil, Russia, KSA, Mexico oil, etc). Plus all countries being stretched at the same time make it so much more difficult to arrange for imf rescue plans, assuming they'd be in as high demand as when the world was more united behind washington. Plus the underlying bonds won't be liquid... if there's a panic ETF selling, the price to NAV will go deep discount mode.
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JIEthereum?
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JQWhat’s going to take to get the curve to steepen? The long end outperformance is mesmerising!
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MDHi Raoul. In my business, it's common wisdom that over-communication is key in times of crisis. Thank you for handling this so well. Would you please cover counterparty risk (or lack thereof) for the long puts we've bought in a future update? That's the one thing I don't have a good view on yet. Thank you again.
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JKGlobal cases: More than 111,300, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Global deaths: At least 3,892, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. That’s it ....Those numbers just aren’t bad considering a China is leveling off. What am I missing here ?
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KBPosition sizing these trades is maddening. I have strong convictions, but not a super strong stomach and feel like the central bank are going to come rip my face off with some crazy spending package...and right on queue, Trump presser rallies the the S&P futures 120 points. Bumpy ride ahead!
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AASimple is better....but dont you see a short on the banks? KBE? Others? Thoughts
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SS@Raoul. Did you buy USDMXN via options? Also, what about USDCAD?
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MRGreat. Thx for updating in such a timely manner! - much appreciated if you can update on ed’s as I didn’t get out yet
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HERaoul, Just joined the "party" - how can I best catch-up? Always timely and clear. peace...
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FBgood update but there is some confusion from your comments,see below. I believe you were suggesting buying puts on the HYG or possibly shorting it but NOT buying it.
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JFRaoul do you expect a US bank runs situation? Is our money “save” with banking insurance? In MI you mentioned you sold your TLT positions but here you said if we have bonds we can keep them as rates will go to zero. Do you stand by the latter? Tx u! Great job with these kick updates! I made money today
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DJHi Raoul, If we cannot buy HYG june puts can you recommend an etf please? Maybe SJB? Thanks
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SS@Raoul. Did you buy USDMXN via options? Also, what about USDCAD?
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BSThanks Raoul. Interesting times. Stay safe everyone.
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PBThanks for that awesome update!
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BFLove the quick fire updates keep them coming...
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DMAny chance there is a transcript for this piece?
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AAThank you! that's all I have to say. Deeply grateful for being a long term subscriber...
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JKBefore the SFO airport was shut to Chinese flights 3 weeks ago, about 42,000 people each week came back/forth from China, via 84 flights a week. Yet no major sicknesses has occurred around SF. That was plenty of time for infected people to arrive from China. Something is off .... the numbers are off..... there should be significant numbers of sick people, regardless of testing. It’s just not happening .. it’s an average to low average flu season ...
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MSI own only options on mainly futures but also some etfs towards the positions you described. What are one’s risks if the market closes? Thanks
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ASNOTE: When you said buy HYG, as per the update Friday, you mean buy puts on HYG; for those who did not see Friday's update.
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THFor non sophisticated savers/investors (family members and friends) with retirement accounts that have limited investment options (no direct cash option), what is safe going forward? For example what is the risk of US short term treasuries? Can the Government or Federal Reserve do anything to cause these to be an unsafe place to hide out in? What would a devaluation of the USD or weaker USD do to these? Example: Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund Investor Shares (VFISX) - average duration 2.1 years - 80% treasury/agency and 20% mortgage backed Just trying to help some of the less informed.. not comfortable to recommend they buy puts on HYG and no option for cash in someone’s retirement account. One thing I recommend is education and RV is my first suggestion however if Raoul or someone can comment on protecting retirement savings when the investment options are limited that would be appreciated.
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RLShould we buy HYG if corp income will crash? Seems counter intuitive to me.
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JDJust some color on Raoul's BTC comment: The tokens he is referring to is actually the PlusToken scam. They managed to accumulate a large amount of BTC with their scam. They have been liquidating over the last few days. I'm sure he just misspoke in a hurry. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-sharp-price-drop-may-115522666.html
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DDGreat update, thank you very much, Raoul! It feels surreal quite surreal, like a slow-motion train-wreck (where you are on the train)
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MNAre you worried about China selling their Treasuries with the enormous profit they have ?
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AEAre 401k's against an existential threat? For instance, even if my mother's 401k is nearly 100% in bonds, is there a potential banking crisis dramatic enough to feel unsafe about keeping the money in?
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BTRaoul, Such updates are very helpful in these challenging times where timing and perhaps time matters for some of RV subscribers. Thank you,
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MBRauol why will the equity buyers not come back and this turn into a recession ?
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RYThank you soo much for this update ... Fantastic ...
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ZYThis update might already changed my mind, i might keep the micro insider membership.
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IBIt's just brilliant, thank you for taking the time doing this update, much appreciated.
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OTRaoul: Also, on the Shale blowing up HYG trade, according to this article: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/putin-sparks-an-oil-price-war-and-us-companies-may-be-the-victims.html They are talking about the shale guy's debt being due in 2021 and if prices stay low until then everything blows up. Does that fit your timeline? or are you looking for something much sooner as per your trade recommendation?
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NRMany thanks
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SSThank you Raoul!
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NOReally appreciate the regular updates, Raoul. Thank you.
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JWThanks Raoul. I’m well positioned at the moment, but trying to figure out what to do next. Quick updates like this are profoundly helpful for me.
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CHI like shorting the Russell 2000 as well (futures via /RTY or ETF via IWM). It never took out the 2017 high unlike it's bigger brothers QQQ and SPY.
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MDThis was awesome. Thanks.
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KCThank you for the flash update! Excellent !
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KAThank you Raoul. I upgraded to Pro over the weekend (longtime standard subscriber) and this is exactly the type of content I signed up for. I hope to see many more of these quick updates over the coming weeks, I'll need them!
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AAThank you so much Raoul.
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RMQuick updates like this are terrific. Thanks.
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OTRaoul: Obviously the top guys in gov. have a fairly good idea of your doom loop scenario. How do you protect your portfolio from the possibility of we wake up with the government passing a truly huge stimulus package in a last ditch panic effort to save the markets?
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JPRauol thank you for your continued efforts for us here, it is appreciated beyond any measure of expression.