Flash Update – September 2, 2020

Published on
September 2nd, 2020
Duration
8 minutes


Flash Update – September 2, 2020

Insider Talks ·
Featuring Raoul Pal

Published on: September 2nd, 2020 • Duration: 8 minutes

Raoul Pal provides a quick update concerning his thoughts on the shifting market environment. He discusses how the equity markets may soon move toward a risk-off mode. He also warns of a decrease in passive flows and the waning support from monetary and fiscal stimulus, which would catalyze broad-based insolvency. Raoul then provides his recommendations about how investors should begin positioning themselves.

Comments

Transcript

  • JA
    Joseph A.
    9 September 2020 @ 02:19
    Is BKX also known now as the KBW Bank Index?
    • RT
      Remi T. | Founder
      10 September 2020 @ 15:39
      Correct, BKX is the ticker on bloomberg
  • CM
    Christopher M.
    8 September 2020 @ 02:06
    What inverse ETF would best approximate his recommendation to "sell BKX?" I can't find any inverse ETFs that are based on the BKX. I find them based on Dow or S&P financials, Russell 1000 financials, or Soloactive Microsectors US Big Banks Index. For example these: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/short-financial-sector-etfs-151503719.html Do any of these best represent shorting the BKX?
  • JM
    John M.
    4 September 2020 @ 04:42
    Raoul, I would appreciate your comments: 1) Now that Galaxy has had a sharp drop, is it a buy again? 2) I understand Galaxy had a quick run up and so the temptation to take profit. However I thought Galaxy was a 'buy and hold' given the long term potential of cryptocurrency. So should I really trade it and potentially just be left behind? Thank you.
    • JK
      Jon K.
      7 September 2020 @ 01:31
      Look under the hood at what Galaxy is, and buys. If you want exposure to cryptocurrencies then "buy and hold" cryptocurrencies. P.S. not your keys, not your coins.
  • ly
    lena y.
    3 September 2020 @ 14:35
    It has been an interesting journey with Galaxy Digital. I bought the stock after Crypto Gathering because I like what I watched about Mike Novogratv. Earlier this week Mike and Raoul were tweeting about Galaxy and I was thinking I didn't sell a share because I believe in Mike's business. The next day I felt the parabolic upswing is too much and I felt uncomfortable. I put in an oder to sell at $5.50. Didn't go thru! Meanwhile I saw the price dropping. Last night Raoul sent out the advice to get out and this morning I sold for $3.81! I have been in biotech venture capital investments(twice as founder) three times. This kind of ride is the nature of this business. After investing in venture cap for 35 years I still need a holding hand to make the move! This membership is worth every penny of it! So much to learn!
    • HC
      Ho C.
      3 September 2020 @ 14:46
      I managed to sell yesterday at 4.3 right after I watched this vid. I know its speculative, but if bitcoin goes to 250k GLXY will ride with it either way? Is it still a good buy?
    • ly
      lena y.
      3 September 2020 @ 15:29
      A business is different from owning a bunch of bitcoin!
    • HC
      Ho C.
      3 September 2020 @ 17:01
      True, but I thought GLXY owns a bunch of bitcoin too. Idk, im in the camp of being scared to lose my private key.
    • AB
      Alain B.
      4 September 2020 @ 03:59
      Raoul, I believe in Galaxy as a business, do you think you are going to take another bite at it? If so, what would be your trigger to buy back in?
  • AF
    Anoop F.
    3 September 2020 @ 22:14
    Thanks for this Raoul. You have been consistently bearish on developed market banks. Would you be a buyer of Indian banks against the backdrop of India's covid/economic problems?
  • DH
    David H.
    3 September 2020 @ 20:10
    Raoul, a longer term question. At the festival of Learning I think I heard Pippa Malmgren opine that a government takeover of Crypto is inevitable. Would like to hear your reaction after you have had an opportunity to review her presentation.
  • LM
    Lorin M.
    3 September 2020 @ 18:02
    Raoul is definitely a market mover. Got in a day late after his Galaxy buy recommendation and had to pay a huge premium, and then sold a day late after his sell rec and took another big hit in the other direction. Still, 50% in pocket with a decent position still alive and free-rolling is nothing to complain about. Thanks Raoul. Love this site!
  • BM
    Brent M.
    3 September 2020 @ 17:24
    I have blown the GLXY Trade. I got in late at $4.25 after signing up for Pro just last week. I didn't realize it was such a speculative play. Thought it was a 12+ month hold so didn't think of selling as it got over $5.00. Rahoul, at this point with GLXY around $3.85, would you sell and take the loss or hang tight?
  • AH
    Andrew H.
    3 September 2020 @ 14:22
    Thanks Raoul. Do you see GDX/GDXJ susceptible to a risk off move, or do we power through following the long gold thesis?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      3 September 2020 @ 16:06
      Will likely correct...
    • AH
      Andrew H.
      3 September 2020 @ 17:15
      Impeccable timing on this call Raoul!
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    3 September 2020 @ 10:43
    Thank you very much Raoul!
  • ES
    Edward S.
    2 September 2020 @ 23:51
    I am confused. "There is a potential for dollar weakness. I bloody well hope so because I have taken a lot of pain in this trade." I thought you were strong USD and Julian was weak USD. Can you please clarify.
    • sw
      stefan w.
      3 September 2020 @ 01:05
      I think he meant Euro weakness. It’s the only way the rest of his sentence makes sense
    • GC
      Gerard C.
      3 September 2020 @ 04:04
      There was a break in the audio. I assumed the words "reversal of" were missed.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      3 September 2020 @ 10:30
      I mean here, Euro weakness and dollar strength. Sorry, these off the cuff videos can be error prone to things like this - mispeaking
  • KR
    Kieran R.
    2 September 2020 @ 23:22
    Did you mean you expect dollar weakness or dollar strength?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      3 September 2020 @ 10:29
      I am expecting some dollar strength and Euro weakness.
  • JM
    Jake M.
    2 September 2020 @ 23:12
    Raoul, are you indicating that you think GE and T are going bankrupt longer term? I understand they are highly indebted but I think they are also considered strategically critical businesses in the US (aerospace and 5G). I doubt US government would just let them go out of business? Also, these are two companies in very different industries. While I understand that the impact in air travel fundamentally hurts GE, T is a telecom company and I doubt cell phone service is going away (it's pretty much a necessity). Why do you think the economic situation is going to hurt their income stream so badly?
    • EF
      Eric F.
      3 September 2020 @ 00:28
      Jake, going bankrupt and going out of business are 2 separate things. You’re likely right that the government would indeed not let them go under as businesses. But, it might be a stretch for them to also bail out equity holders - also nothing is impossible with Trump. It could be we see restructuring and shareholders completely wiped out. I think we could see the same with Boeing. Where it is trading is insane considering the multitude of issues it is seeing.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      3 September 2020 @ 10:29
      Im just suggesting the share price can move a lot lower as the risk of bankruptcy rises for GE for sure or that risks rise in general for T due to its massive debt loads and reduced revenues.
  • mp
    matthew p.
    3 September 2020 @ 00:37
    What's the rationale selling Galaxy Digital while maintaining an "irresponsibly long" position in Bitcoin? Bitcoin wasn't a flight to safety last round, why would the next leg down be any different? Not opposed to a hopium type response because I too am "irresponsibly long" ;)
    • HC
      Ho C.
      3 September 2020 @ 06:36
      When this vid was posted, GLXY plummetted.... I thought this was a long term buy?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      3 September 2020 @ 10:27
      Galaxy is stock with negative cash flows and an unproven business model which makes it more speculative in nature for me. Bitcoin is very different.
  • GP
    Gregory P.
    3 September 2020 @ 05:15
    Raul - At the beginning of the video you highlight the rise of the dollar as the something that is potentially destabilizing the markets. But then towards the end of the video ( 4:55) you mention you are worried about dollar weakness. What am i not understanding? Thanks
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      3 September 2020 @ 10:26
      The potential for the dollar to rise sharply from here, increasing FX volatility can destabilize markets.
  • rd
    ross d.
    3 September 2020 @ 06:47
    could someone please remind me what were the big BBB names in each sector Raul was watching, cheers
  • DW
    Daniel W.
    3 September 2020 @ 00:53
    Thanks!
  • DW
    Dean W.
    3 September 2020 @ 00:10
    Great update, thank you. I put on a decent sized Euro short as it tried to breach 1.20 USD. This is totally off topic but being somewhat of a compulsive workaholic, I've only just been able to take enough time off to finally watch the videos from the RV Crypto workshop that happened a few or so months ago. They're great, I've opened an account at Kraken and have bought myself and my two kids a Ledger Nano and am sending them small amounts of crypto, getting them into the crypto space. Am looking forward to watching the Festival of Learning videos later as well.
  • ES
    Edward S.
    2 September 2020 @ 23:54
    Regarding silver and the dollar.... Julian had some good insight in his Festival of Learning video with Raoul this morning. Recommended viewing if you are involved in the USD and/or silver.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    2 September 2020 @ 21:11
    Thanks Raoul, much appreciated. Any interest in shorting the regional bank index and is there a suitable ETF with which to do so?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      2 September 2020 @ 22:04
      Yes, I like shorting the regional banks ETF. Again, start slow in a trial balloon position.
    • JS
      Jim S.
      2 September 2020 @ 23:07
      I would use KRE.
  • CA
    Carlos A.
    2 September 2020 @ 22:46
    Raoul, Whish is your target on KBX, GE and T. ?
  • GL
    G L.
    2 September 2020 @ 22:20
    Puts on equities are fully priced - it will be very difficult to make any meaningful gains by shorting stocks.
  • AP
    Aneil P.
    2 September 2020 @ 19:42
    @Roul I really really want to hear from you on the last interview that was done with Steve! Where low interest rates and QE's are actually deflationary and not inflationary.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      2 September 2020 @ 22:05
      I concur.
  • ML
    Michael L.
    2 September 2020 @ 20:37
    Many thanks Raoul! Appreciate the update, as always. Cheers
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    2 September 2020 @ 20:28
    Thank you
  • SR
    Steve R.
    2 September 2020 @ 19:07
    Appreciate the update Raoul, cheers.
  • nw
    nicholas w.
    2 September 2020 @ 18:24
    Thank you. If we could have a transcript please? NW