Comments
Transcript
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IBThere were great charts in this talk - why not include them in the transcripts!
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MBPlease stop discussing GME just saying
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AAI do appreciate the Monkey Shoulder next to the TV.
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SGReally great video for the big picture. Can I PowerShare this?
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ptthis guy doesnt miss a beat, impressive.
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SSBrilliant! Thank you.
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IPExcellent presentation, its convinced me to sign up!
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PCRealVision needs more Roger Hirst.
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AAWell done Roger, great synopsis and commentary on the macro tea leaves
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JWThank God for Roger to give me the translation of the insider talks. A great idea to have these interpretations and highlights gets me closer to actionable information.
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KCAt the very end of the video, you mentioned the potential for fiscal stimulus that wouldn't be allowed to be used to buy investment assets...with the intention of driving spending. However, if the fiscal stimulus is used to instead pay off debt then it becomes a huge deflationary force due to the fractional reserve banking money supply function. Think about that...Covid means people are spending more online with credit cards (debt), half of Americans carry credit card debt, unemployment is high, rent moratoriums and mortgage forbearance continue, etc. In the end, we will need positive consumer and bank loan officer sentiment to drive growth and inflation. This is Japan all over again.
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SGHonestly i think the inflation trade has gotten so crowded because its obvious its coming. Universal basic income is here, supply shortages everywhere, copper flying higher almost every week, food prices soaring, silver out of supply now for 2 weeks, Crypto exploding, housing selling far above its assessed value. The commodity to s&p 500 ratio is at a 50 year low, the democrats are going to spend like drunken sailors and every day some random stock explodes higher further exposing an obviously phony equity market. I could be wrong but the overcrowded inflation trade and positioning doesnt concern me as much as the other things.
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JTRoger is simply amazing.
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sdGlad it is available to all. @Raoul, here is your best translator.
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JPsuch quality content. someone please take the leash off and let roger run more often!
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VKShowing positioning as notional number of contracts rather than % of open interest is poor. Come on guys, it's not hard.
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NDExcellent Roger, just excellent, thank you!
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JBAre there any graphs available to integrate with the transcript or are they presented as part of the video?
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MNlove the setting! inspired by Roger's Fila jacket or vice versa? I'm still a designer at heart
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PGYes Roger, it's like brownian motion (of smoke particles) - which way's the wind blowing? :-)
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DMReally fantastic presentation. Thank you, Roger.
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ATGreat content, and the Happy Days theme is great!
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PTJapan keeps being brought up as example of a path US could follow, but and earlier RV interviewee discussed how US & Japan are not comparable due to their Current Account Balances, which will more and more impact their currencies. Germany, Japan, & China have the largest surpluses, while the US is by far the worst. I would like to see Roger's assessment of how the Current Account Balances enter into the equations of all of these other factors that counter-balance each other. Roger does great analyses. Even after watching the video twice (and replaying several parts multiple times), he's such a wealth of info that's like trying to drink from a fire hydrant. Keep it up, Roger.
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GAEverything is at extremes, but the Treasury-Eurodollar spread is quiescent. https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$TED If the $TED is so peaceful, doesn't all the "chaos" mean that we are just drowning in liquidity....i.e. sound and fury, signifying nothing. Shouldn't the $TED have a pulse if we are on the edge of the abyss.
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MRLove the long form content. Keep it up RV. After he mentioned stimulus being redirected to equities I immediately thought of how stimulus was dispersed here in South Korea. Through collaboration with local banks, ‘gift cards’ were distributed to citizens and residents with restrictions on where you could use the card. They prioritized local grocery stores, essential services, necessities for life and living while strictly restricting bars, clubs, and big box supermarkets. (Among a lost of others). This allowed the Central Bank and government to analyze what people were buying, how much, and where, to make changes in the future if they needed to be made. (This raises privacy concerns but is another conversation entirely) While the economy hasn’t entirely recovered, it seems to be fairing better now with money being spent in the places that need it. Now internally they are dealing with how to react to a stronger dollar much sooner than they projected. Thanks for making this video available to all!
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JMGreat job. Only missing the Partridge Family on the tube.
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DJI can't watch this without him donning a pipe and a kangol. You ask too much
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GWVery good and helpful content.. Thank you
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SVRealVision needs more Roger Hirst. By far the most cogent, credible, and honest macro commentator on RealVision, YouTube, or FinTwit. Would be great to share a dram of whatever he's drinking and talk macro all night long.
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JDGreat round-up! Also, love the Fila jacket!
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SAThe only reason why we haven't seen any rise in CPI is because the YOY effect hasn't started yet. The COVID effect began in roughly mid Feb 2020 I would argue lets wait and see what next CPI is going to be. Esp. since oil is at $60 now, smoked DXY & many other commodities are just sky high. P.S. Druck is tilted on the inflation side too.
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PEReally good, and very helpful with great charts. Thanks Roger!
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BCany chance you could attach the charts in the transcript?
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DRThis is fascinating and very helpful to get more value from the Insider Talks. I am curious why it was downvoted a few times. Maybe someone who downvoted can explain why they disliked this content and how it could possibly be improved on?
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LLGreat video, so much unpacked from that analysis vs the original video.
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DDExcellent video and really adds value to the discussion between RP and JB. Surprised how much I missed in their prior conversation despite listening to it twice. Thanks Roger