Inside the Episode – Insider Talks (Feb 2021)

Published on
February 11th, 2021
Duration
38 minutes


Inside the Episode – Insider Talks (Feb 2021)

Insider Talks ·
Featuring Roger Hirst

Published on: February 11th, 2021 • Duration: 38 minutes

In the latest installment of “Inside the Episode,” Real Vision managing editor Roger Hirst breaks down the most central points of discussion from February’s episode of Insider Talks. He explains the rare equity set-up that Raoul and Julian are observing—from options trading at record highs due to retail and high-frequency trading to market makers being short gamma to mutual funds having record low levels of cash, this has generated a scenario where hedge funds’ stabilizing influence has been dramatically reduced. Roger shares how this set-up has played a key role in what occurred with GameStop and leads to bigger questions about whether the conviction behind the reflation trade has been one of dollar reflation and speculative positioning or true growth reflation. Analyzing the recent movements of Treasury yields and comparing them to their prior behavior during other recessionary periods, he considers how commonplace the inflation narrative is and how much of that is priced in. As central banks have continuously supported markets with quantitative easing, Roger points out how they have become a critical part of the correction mechanism, which has made market fragility more apparent and volatility more extreme, and how, in turn, this dynamic can inflict more damage upon the real economy.

Comments

Transcript

  • IB
    Irina B.
    23 February 2021 @ 18:23
    There were great charts in this talk - why not include them in the transcripts!
  • MB
    Michael B.
    16 February 2021 @ 12:59
    Please stop discussing GME just saying
  • AA
    ALLEN A.
    12 February 2021 @ 22:57
    I do appreciate the Monkey Shoulder next to the TV.
    • SG
      Stuart G.
      14 February 2021 @ 21:37
      Real Vision are some cool peeps.
  • SG
    Stuart G.
    14 February 2021 @ 21:19
    Really great video for the big picture. Can I PowerShare this?
  • pt
    popejumpingjohnpaul t.
    14 February 2021 @ 19:52
    this guy doesnt miss a beat, impressive.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    13 February 2021 @ 20:17
    Brilliant! Thank you.
  • IP
    Ian P.
    12 February 2021 @ 14:15
    Excellent presentation, its convinced me to sign up!
    • MO
      Martin O.
      13 February 2021 @ 19:55
      I haven't regretted my fist couple of weeks...
  • PC
    Petros C.
    13 February 2021 @ 09:34
    RealVision needs more Roger Hirst.
  • AA
    ALI A.
    13 February 2021 @ 05:45
    Well done Roger, great synopsis and commentary on the macro tea leaves
  • JW
    Jason W.
    13 February 2021 @ 02:05
    Thank God for Roger to give me the translation of the insider talks. A great idea to have these interpretations and highlights gets me closer to actionable information.
  • KC
    Kyle C.
    12 February 2021 @ 06:18
    At the very end of the video, you mentioned the potential for fiscal stimulus that wouldn't be allowed to be used to buy investment assets...with the intention of driving spending. However, if the fiscal stimulus is used to instead pay off debt then it becomes a huge deflationary force due to the fractional reserve banking money supply function. Think about that...Covid means people are spending more online with credit cards (debt), half of Americans carry credit card debt, unemployment is high, rent moratoriums and mortgage forbearance continue, etc. In the end, we will need positive consumer and bank loan officer sentiment to drive growth and inflation. This is Japan all over again.
    • DR
      David R.
      12 February 2021 @ 23:13
      Yeahbut the US isn't "japan all over again" as the US is in a way bigger hole and trouble because US is an externally financed, massive twin deficit nation in the worse financial shape of all. In contrast, Japan is almost all internally financed and has a large trade surplus because Japan makes stuff the world wants, unlike the US. So IDK why some pundits talk about "japanification" of the US when they're totally different really.
    • DR
      David R.
      12 February 2021 @ 23:18
      ^ Oops I meant, "Japan has a current account surplus"
  • SG
    Steve G.
    12 February 2021 @ 23:11
    Honestly i think the inflation trade has gotten so crowded because its obvious its coming. Universal basic income is here, supply shortages everywhere, copper flying higher almost every week, food prices soaring, silver out of supply now for 2 weeks, Crypto exploding, housing selling far above its assessed value. The commodity to s&p 500 ratio is at a 50 year low, the democrats are going to spend like drunken sailors and every day some random stock explodes higher further exposing an obviously phony equity market. I could be wrong but the overcrowded inflation trade and positioning doesnt concern me as much as the other things.
  • JT
    Joseph T.
    12 February 2021 @ 19:06
    Roger is simply amazing.
  • sd
    simon d.
    11 February 2021 @ 20:30
    Glad it is available to all. @Raoul, here is your best translator.
    • pd
      preston d.
      12 February 2021 @ 18:11
      Mansplainer! =)
  • JP
    Jason P.
    12 February 2021 @ 16:50
    such quality content. someone please take the leash off and let roger run more often!
  • VK
    Viresh K.
    11 February 2021 @ 21:10
    Showing positioning as notional number of contracts rather than % of open interest is poor. Come on guys, it's not hard.
    • VK
      Viresh K.
      11 February 2021 @ 21:11
      https://freecotdata.com/commodities-2 % of OI also tells a similar story by the way, so no need to just show notional contracts.
    • RM
      Richard M.
      12 February 2021 @ 14:00
      Viresh, I use to follow that freecotdata.com site but they stopped updating their charts in Dec 19, 2020. Any reason you still follow them? Just curious. Thanks. [I really liked their format so was very disappointed when they stopped providing data.]
  • ND
    Nicole D.
    12 February 2021 @ 13:58
    Excellent Roger, just excellent, thank you!
  • JB
    John B.
    12 February 2021 @ 06:12
    Are there any graphs available to integrate with the transcript or are they presented as part of the video?
    • GS
      George S.
      12 February 2021 @ 12:06
      We will start adding them from next time. We've been ironing out the process as this is a new format overseen by a new team.
  • MN
    MYLENE N.
    12 February 2021 @ 05:55
    love the setting! inspired by Roger's Fila jacket or vice versa? I'm still a designer at heart
    • JL
      J L.
      12 February 2021 @ 10:30
      could spend double on the whisky if that's the way you're going to go
  • PG
    Philip G.
    12 February 2021 @ 05:46
    Yes Roger, it's like brownian motion (of smoke particles) - which way's the wind blowing? :-)
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    12 February 2021 @ 05:02
    Really fantastic presentation. Thank you, Roger.
  • AT
    Abraham T.
    12 February 2021 @ 04:58
    Great content, and the Happy Days theme is great!
  • PT
    Philip T.
    11 February 2021 @ 20:18
    Japan keeps being brought up as example of a path US could follow, but and earlier RV interviewee discussed how US & Japan are not comparable due to their Current Account Balances, which will more and more impact their currencies. Germany, Japan, & China have the largest surpluses, while the US is by far the worst. I would like to see Roger's assessment of how the Current Account Balances enter into the equations of all of these other factors that counter-balance each other. Roger does great analyses. Even after watching the video twice (and replaying several parts multiple times), he's such a wealth of info that's like trying to drink from a fire hydrant. Keep it up, Roger.
    • MO
      Master O.
      12 February 2021 @ 04:46
      Also Japan's net international net investment position is at +67% of GDP while the US is at -60% of its GDP. Japan has plenty of assets abroad to support their currency while the US does not!
  • GA
    Gerald A.
    12 February 2021 @ 01:23
    Everything is at extremes, but the Treasury-Eurodollar spread is quiescent. https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$TED If the $TED is so peaceful, doesn't all the "chaos" mean that we are just drowning in liquidity....i.e. sound and fury, signifying nothing. Shouldn't the $TED have a pulse if we are on the edge of the abyss.
  • MR
    Matthew R.
    12 February 2021 @ 01:18
    Love the long form content. Keep it up RV. After he mentioned stimulus being redirected to equities I immediately thought of how stimulus was dispersed here in South Korea. Through collaboration with local banks, ‘gift cards’ were distributed to citizens and residents with restrictions on where you could use the card. They prioritized local grocery stores, essential services, necessities for life and living while strictly restricting bars, clubs, and big box supermarkets. (Among a lost of others). This allowed the Central Bank and government to analyze what people were buying, how much, and where, to make changes in the future if they needed to be made. (This raises privacy concerns but is another conversation entirely) While the economy hasn’t entirely recovered, it seems to be fairing better now with money being spent in the places that need it. Now internally they are dealing with how to react to a stronger dollar much sooner than they projected. Thanks for making this video available to all!
    • MH
      Michael H.
      12 February 2021 @ 01:21
      that's interesting - just curious, did a cash market develop for the cards, or were they ID checked?
  • JM
    Jim M.
    12 February 2021 @ 00:57
    Great job. Only missing the Partridge Family on the tube.
  • DJ
    Dennis J.
    11 February 2021 @ 22:41
    I can't watch this without him donning a pipe and a kangol. You ask too much
  • GW
    Greg W.
    11 February 2021 @ 21:53
    Very good and helpful content.. Thank you
  • SV
    Steven V.
    11 February 2021 @ 21:28
    RealVision needs more Roger Hirst. By far the most cogent, credible, and honest macro commentator on RealVision, YouTube, or FinTwit. Would be great to share a dram of whatever he's drinking and talk macro all night long.
  • JD
    Joel D.
    11 February 2021 @ 20:17
    Great round-up! Also, love the Fila jacket!
  • SA
    Said A.
    11 February 2021 @ 20:05
    The only reason why we haven't seen any rise in CPI is because the YOY effect hasn't started yet. The COVID effect began in roughly mid Feb 2020 I would argue lets wait and see what next CPI is going to be. Esp. since oil is at $60 now, smoked DXY & many other commodities are just sky high. P.S. Druck is tilted on the inflation side too.
  • PE
    Paul E.
    11 February 2021 @ 19:51
    Really good, and very helpful with great charts. Thanks Roger!
  • BC
    Brent C.
    11 February 2021 @ 18:27
    any chance you could attach the charts in the transcript?
  • DR
    Derrick R.
    11 February 2021 @ 18:03
    This is fascinating and very helpful to get more value from the Insider Talks. I am curious why it was downvoted a few times. Maybe someone who downvoted can explain why they disliked this content and how it could possibly be improved on?
  • LL
    Ludovico L.
    11 February 2021 @ 11:47
    Great video, so much unpacked from that analysis vs the original video.
  • DD
    Donal D.
    11 February 2021 @ 08:31
    Excellent video and really adds value to the discussion between RP and JB. Surprised how much I missed in their prior conversation despite listening to it twice. Thanks Roger