Published on: March 12th, 2021 • Duration: 36 minutes
In the latest installment of “Inside the Episode,” Real Vision managing editor Roger Hirst breaks down the most central points of discussion from March’s episode of Insider Talks. Roger notes that the biggest themes that emerged from this conversation concerned the interplay of nominal yields, real yields, and inflation expectations as well as at what levels yields would need be at in order to have a meaningful impact on risk assets and can trigger the Fed to act. As bond yields’ recent rise strike at the heart of whether this bout of inflation will become sticky or transient, he teases out Julian’s thoughts on why “the belly of the curve” is where the next big move in yields will play out and outlines how the reflation rally is still in full effect. Roger also addresses how these inflation expectations are not spread evenly through time or geography, leading to questions about whether this centers around the U.S. or whether this is true global reflation. In the case that the Fed is looking to prevent the 10-year Treasury yield from experiencing a “napalm run,” Roger discusses what the Fed has at its disposal—from taking cash out of the TGA account to an “Operation Twist” to even yield curve control—and what the possible outcomes may be. Finally, he touches on the energy sector, which has been underweight throughout the reflation trade rally, and why reflation is largely dependent on the fiscal story.