Julian: they are not going to be able to pay for storage of oil, see what is happening in Mexican imports of gasolines, and the # of ships anchored. AP

holy shit that was epic. I need the blacklist membership just for the thrills!

Thoughts on how the Fed pinning the yield curve would impact TLT?

Please show the trade recommendations in the form of slide at the end.

Please have a new mini insider talk about the dollar as Raoul is bullish and Julien is quite bearish on the dollar, I think we are all in difficulty here, I know that means that it should remain a low convinction trade until you both agree...

Just a great discussion, one of the best.

Raoul, I would LOVE your view on whether we will still see a selloff in 2020, and if yes, is your probability of this happening decreasing as we see more stimulus? Please see below context. 1. I see the Paycheck Protection Program as a potential game changer in that we may not see the new low in equities this year. I provided a link below and copy/pasted a key element of the program that forgives the loan to small business..literally FREE money. Do you still believe that we will see a new low th One of the things I have been juggling with is timelines and what the equities market has already priced in (not sure whether to be a bull or bear right now). My decision making process on whether things reach a new low or not is based on these key factors: (1) Consumer consumption and (2) the rate at which stimulus reaches households which I am trying to measure through delinquency rates across different types of debt. I believe an increase in consumer delinquency rates across various type of debt (auto loans, HELOCs, credit lines, credit cards) is a good way to understand whether the stimulus is moving through the economy fast enough—not so much focused on mortgages because those are the last thing people won't pay. My view on Q1 - Q3 sentiment Jan - Mar = A slow down, but Jan/Feb were still strong with March bearing the brunt (layoffs + selloff). Consumption slows and delinquency/defaults are relatively unchanged. April - June = Slow down becomes more aggressive and mass layoffs (already priced in) and overall defaults and delinquency info is unchanged because most have some savings, or ability to service debt for a couple months. And if not, most late payments are being forgiven for a short period of time as this stimulus rolls out (think about mortgage deferral in Canada as an example) so I don't think the numbers should be insanely bad. July - August = This is the changing tide. If Covid-19 continues to ravage consumption and layoffs are still net+, then the bad numbers start to show in defaults, and delinquencies + earnings are poor, and this leads to a sell off in Q4. **Yesterday, my view on consumption was still pessimistic BUT my timelines in terms of the selloff in Q4 have become very uncertain. I read yesterday that about the Payment Protection Program and it's crazy. See below for snippet: "The effort, known as the Paycheck Protection Program, is intended to encourage banks to lend to companies that agree to keep workers on the payroll. Most — and in some cases, all — of a loan would be forgiven if the borrower retained its workers and didn’t cut their wages. The government would repay lenders for the forgiven portions of the loans. Companies with 500 or fewer employees can apply, on a first-come-first-serve basis, and banks will give them the short-term funding they need to keep workers on the books and cover expenses as coronavirus quarantines dramatically slow, or entirely stop, their cash flow."

Great conversation as always - thank you! On Sweden: successive governments have always placed the health and safety of their citizens above financial considerations and Sweden has led the world on this front for decades. One can cite numerous examples where policies have been implemented to protect the public irrespective of cost and well ahead of the curve - banning practices that are still in place in the US and UK to this day. So when I look at Sweden, I just know they always do things differently. Re covid-19, although there is no formal lockdown in place (yet), social distancing has been active for some weeks now. Most workers have been WHF and while pubs and restaurants are officially open, they are largely empty as the public have seemingly voluntarily adhered to government advice. At the same time, advisors have always hinted at stricter measures in the pipeline, and I'm pretty sure they will be implemented Other countries/territories closer to China, such as HK, Taiwan and Singapore also had no formal lockdowns, but have thus far exhibited relatively low infection and mortality rates (if the data is to be trusted). Were they naive also? Yes, the east asian nations have used tracking apps, but I think what is clear is that there are different carrot and stick approaches that work with different cultures and populations, and it is way too early to tell which strategies lower the all-in human cost in the wake of this pandemic. As far as the UK is concerned, the government advice has been all over the place from the start. Frontline doctors and other medical staff are even to this day routinely 'refused' testing even when they present with symptoms, and instead told to self-isolate for 14 days. Consequently a quarter of UK doctors are now out of action at the crucial ramping up phase in infection rates - many of whom may be disease free but don't know as they have not been tested. Meanwhile, the well-connected have easy access to tests. The system is completely upside down. One thing is pretty clear to me: after the harrowing personal cost and economic fallout from this global catastrophe, there must not be a repeat of the obscene mis-allocation of capital into debt-fuelled share buybacks and other unproductive endeavours that occurred post 2008. Instead significantly more capital needs to be channelled to scientists and engineers to support startups in their effort to drive technology to new and paradigm-shifting heights. As this pandemic demonstrates, we are still in the technological stone age in many ways, and there is far more that can be done to bring us to where we perhaps should be at this stage in human development. Aside from the direct benefits to society, better funding for technology is the only way to collectively raise productivity levels and ultimately generate stronger rates of economic growth. No amount of bailouts, fixing of the yield curve or QE infinity can compete with that.

Raoul, when you say you are bullish Gold and you buy physical, are you buying equities in gold Miners right now at this stage? is there any ratio between physical gold and gold miners which you would recommend at this point, say 25/75 or 50/50 or 75/25? Your thoughts on this would be appreciated. Thank you!

Can you pls link to where the PM of Singapore says they will close for one to two years. Been looking for this and can not find it. Thanks

Singapore just shut one of its three airport terminals for 18 months - an insight to how long the government thinks CV19 and/or its aftereffects will last

can you guys provide transcript of this conversation? Would ease on making notes

It seems that the biggest risk to some of the dire predictions is that one of the treatments being studied/tried actually works... because if so, the damage to the human psyche may not be so bad and maybe the economic recovery is somewhere between L and V. Can you comment on that, or at least why RV isn't (from what I've seen) covering that aspect? It seems to be an important part of the thesis, and since it's missing from this talk and RV in general, I wonder whether it is or why isn't being considered. BTW: Thank you, RV for the outstanding service!

Can we talk more about short-term trades please? I love all of the discussion. I'd give a year's salary (I see you Blacklist) to have a glass of wine and talk with you guys about this, but until then I'm paying $3k a year so I can crush it and afford that fee.

Julian thanks for mentioning the tanker trade - but don't sleep on these guys right now. All of those companies are going to free cash flow their market caps at a minimum first two quarters of this year and it's not even remotely priced into their values right now. Harris Kupperman did a few videos on this for RV check them out

Could the (likely) sovereign wealth fund that´s likely dumping the US Notes be the beginning of the "Sell the US" scenario? Of course it also just could be some internal reason, but if one of the big wealth funds decided to get out on a fundamental reason, that would be quite scary and could lead others to follow...

Quick question for both Raoul and Julian regarding the best way ways to hold cash outside of banks given FDIC limits. Thanks guys great stuff and stay safe

Any thoughts on how the transition from LIBOR to SOFR affects Eurodollar futures?

Why no transcript? It's difficult to understand both of you due to you accent.

Great session - great moderating too. Raoul talked about a scenario where rates across the curve become stuck at 0% as the Fed's obviously extremely reluctant to go into negative rates unless absolutely forced to. If we get that in tandem with a deflation of 5% this effectively implies a jump up in real rates to ~5%. How does that scenario not destroy Gold within a short period of time?

Do gold mining equities become the new yield stocks (and mining stocks in general perhaps)

What do you guys think of Jim Rickards's suggestion (during his discussion with Kieth McCullough) that the US Treasury could create inflation in 15 minutes by offering to buy gold without limit at $5000 an ounce?

Guys, noob question on bond. I look at the current yield curve where 30 year is sitting at 1.24% and 10 year at 1.05% respectively. However, tlt (20+ year treasury bond) etf currently has yield of 1.64%. How is that possible (higher than the rates on yield curve)?

A question for Julian, who mentioned MORT last week. Is it not realistic to believe that Fed is going to support ever more markets, and if yes, is MORT starting to look interesting?

I'm going through Raoul's case. Help appreciated :) Yes, lot's of corporations will struggle the next 18 months and many will disappear. I agree that SWAP-lines and SDR would only help the corporations with good collaterals. However, 1. Non-US citizens will likely sell some of their $39 T worth of assets, thus sell USD 2. FED is printing Trillions 3. Fiscal spending will explode Some of these dollars should flow to non-US corporations with $-debt. Either as revenue or as new loans. That should weaken the dollar - or will these money flows arrive too late and or be too small to weaken the dollar?

This was an intense session ! Very interesting discussion again. Many macro themes (plus some actual stock tips - I almost fell of my chair :-). The discussion about our post CV19 society I found very interesting. Are we going to back to business as usual, or are we taking this opportunity to do something different. One very specific question re Silver is still lingering...if silver's most compelling property is its industrial use, why would it rally? (I am also long silver, platinum, gold).

Haven't come across Harry Melandri before but i through he did a great job of moderating this. It is not easy to steer a discussion between two significant intellects but he made it look easy. Well done.

Raoul, having Harry moderate massively improves these segments IMO. all the best

Superb conversation. Thank you. Do you guys think that the shift to fiscally driven govt underwritten by CBs will lead us back to old Labour style nationalisations? Govts bypass banks as credit creators to pick winners. Essentially banks are dead and Govts directly control the transmission mechanism.

Great stuff as always gents- thank you. Question for Raoul from your 4/3 Daily Briefing and specifically you mentioned that because of Basel III and the Volcker Rule, DB-NY can no longer lend USDs to DB- London so can you elaborate on this- I am confused due to the fact that money/ USDs are fungible how can these flows be stopped? Thanks and stay safe guys!

Please answer this one question with just the currency pair as I know you are short on time and very busy. If there was one currency you would be long USD against today which has the most upside, which one would it be?

In relation to the dollar racing higher does anyone have any ideas in terms of the expected timeline? The reason I ask is that I took out Call Options on UUP which expires in June and am just wondering if I should extend these out to September or December. Any inputs gratefully appreciated. Donal.

@Raoul, What do you think about the likelihood of the last step in Ben Bernanke’s “Deflation” speech? "Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it's worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt's 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to 3.4 percent in 1934.17 The economy grew strongly, and by the way, 1934 was one of the best years of the century for the stock market. If nothing else, the episode illustrates that monetary actions can have powerful effects on the economy, even when the nominal interest rate is at or near zero, as was the case at the time of Roosevelt's devaluation." https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/

Raoul mentioning the chance that real interest rates spike in the near term (due to deflation and that rates wont be able to catch down fast enough) is perhaps the biggest short term risk to the consensus long gold view. Wondering is that on your minds Raoul and Julian?

Awesome content!

Enjoying the updates and content! Keep up the great work. I would love to see a discussion between Raoul and Luke Gromen re: Inflation/Deflation. Dollar strength is the dominant macro issue.

Bush fires! Smoke taint on my grapes = no vintage! Coronavirus! Aussie dollar goes to 40 cents! F#*@K!

This content is absolutely amazing.

Don't Smoke weed, But great time to start... Anyone have the tickers to the storage Oil tankers to watch?

How do you like shorting CEW?

Great podcast. I live in Australia. We have some big economic issues for sure. But actually our Federal and State Govs have got their act together in the last three weeks and the CV19 signs are looking reasonable. Economy stuffed though.

Raoul the data in Australia ( aus.gov.au/current-numbers ) for the virus shows they are really slowing it down. While there first steps in containing this were tentative I’m surprised living here how compliant most people have been with the authorities in getting this under control with naturally some exceptions. I don’t necessary agree now that it can be classified as awful. From data published on Saturday 4th April we have 5,548 cases with 30 deaths and there were 198 new cases that day giving a daily increase of just under 4%. They have also tested 287k people so far which is more than 1 percent of the population so relatively high compared to other countries. Keep up the good work you guys are doing.

Great talk! Have you given any thought to inflation due to a desire to force deglobalization in a post virus world? I agree with deflation in the near term, but if post virus the US brings supply chains home this could cause issues. Thinking about putting a longer dated long straddle on TIPS given as I think we are going to either see deflation or inflation or both but not a sideways trade. Hopefully, we get that vaccine in the fall, any thoughts on if that would change you thesis going forward? Thanks for all you 3 do!

What about some potential solutions. What should govt and fed do ?

Stiff drink time!