Insider Talks – August 2020 (LIVE)

Published on
August 6th, 2020
Duration
66 minutes


Insider Talks – August 2020 (LIVE)

Insider Talks ·
Featuring Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden

Published on: August 6th, 2020 • Duration: 66 minutes

In this month's Insider Talk, Raoul and Julian will be going live at 12:15 PM EDT on August 7th to discuss their recent thoughts and answer questions from all of our Real Vision members. To apply your current member credit to upgrade to Pro, step right this way... https://www.realvision.com/pricing

Comments

  • AC
    Alex C.
    31 August 2020 @ 12:08
    Late to this one but enjoyed it, thank you gents.
  • EM
    Eric M.
    29 August 2020 @ 18:03
    Bumping what others have been asking - Could someone please send me an invitation to the RV Slack channel? I can find no other path to join than an invitation. Thank you kindly. Eric
  • TY
    Tony Y.
    16 August 2020 @ 14:44
    How to join the Slack channel?
    • EA
      Esqandar A.
      25 August 2020 @ 09:12
      Can someone from the channel send a link? Looking to join too
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    8 August 2020 @ 21:48
    How do we access the slack channel? We need a login. I believe you normally need a workspace URL.
    • HW
      Hugh W.
      8 August 2020 @ 23:46
      https://join.slack.com/t/rvfans/shared_invite/zt-frwuzh9y-JppjcfJ6RX2K4ssBt7p7_w
    • TY
      Tony Y.
      16 August 2020 @ 14:36
      The URL posted doesn’t work. Please send valid URL. Thanks
  • MZ
    Mark Z.
    15 August 2020 @ 18:57
    This was usefull. Also, letting us see on what content is like on higher tier memberships was a great idea.
  • VL
    Victor L.
    15 August 2020 @ 05:15
    Transcript?
  • DL
    Damian L.
    13 August 2020 @ 16:47
    Enjoyed it a lot. First time for me hearing Julian and I like his views.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    13 August 2020 @ 02:31
    I think if the price of PRO would be 3x lower than what it is you would have maybe 4x increasement of Pro users :) just an idea.
  • tw
    tam w.
    9 August 2020 @ 06:13
    When talking about inflation you need to define what inflation you mean. CPI inflation is one measure, bread and rice. House price, stocks, old Ferraris. What I have seen is massive Inflation in the top 1% net wealth. They need to let the system collapse or a revolution is a certainty.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      12 August 2020 @ 02:14
      Yes, there is a lot of ambiguity in how people use "inflation". Do they mean increasing prices for consumption baskets. Or do they mean high levels of nominal growth driven by high levels of bank balance sheet expansion. Is deflation the same as disinflation? If they are different, how are they different?
  • TE
    Tito E.
    9 August 2020 @ 12:10
    Harry. You look like Kit from Knight Rider.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      12 August 2020 @ 02:11
      My wife says the same thing
  • DP
    Duane P.
    10 August 2020 @ 18:34
    Does anyone know where to get the Deutsche Trade Weighted Index of the Dollar that they were using or something close that's not exclusive to a Bloomberg terminal? I've been unable to find a traded weighted dollar chart that Raoul and Julian use anywhere.
    • JM
      Jennifer M.
      10 August 2020 @ 22:15
      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS
    • JK
      James K.
      11 August 2020 @ 12:53
      Thanks Jennifer
  • mB
    marc B.
    11 August 2020 @ 03:07
    Can’t wait for the slack channel. Twitter is getting boring. This community has the brightest minds in investing! Hopefully only paid members get access.
  • BT
    Billy T.
    10 August 2020 @ 19:37
    What instrument should be used to express a long USD view?
  • Mt
    Miami t.
    9 August 2020 @ 07:33
    Great, great video again gentlemen. I went from thumbs down to thumbs up. Thumbs down for the terrible video quality in the first part to thumbs up for the awesome content! The biggest problem I have with Crypto is how to buy a decent portion of it. I have an enormous problem with buying larger amounts in the Crypto environment. It just doesn't feel good with the history of hacking and stealing. This forces me to buy Bitcoin futures and GBTC at the normal exchange, but they come at a really steep premium. So that also doesn't make me happy. How do you guys to that?
    • TL
      Tom L.
      9 August 2020 @ 11:56
      Hardware wallet and exchanges like Kraken have never been hacked, you can contact them for OTC.
    • BW
      Bradley W.
      10 August 2020 @ 00:44
      If you're an accredited investor you have access to numerous OTC exchanges. Genesis Trading is a good one. Also like previous poster said, many exchanges now have OTC desk if your trade size is larger enough.
    • Nv
      Nick v.
      10 August 2020 @ 19:03
      Hardware wallet (ledger nano for example) in combination with a safe deposit box at a specialized company (or bank)
  • MT
    Mark T.
    9 August 2020 @ 03:10
    Excellent video - very educational for a novice trader. Julian mentioned silver with a vol of 40 and AUD at 6. How can we find such data? Tried to look online at Beta values.
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      10 August 2020 @ 04:56
      I as well was looking for a table that has generalized vol for different assets. Would be helpful if anyone can share a source of general research and ta table on this.
    • JM
      John M.
      10 August 2020 @ 11:30
      Vol is simply quoted as an annualized standard deviation of price returns... ex. 30dqy realized vol: std of previous 30 daily returns * sqrt(252) to annualize. Can calculate easily in excel, or often it is a chart indicator on trading platforms like thinkorswim
  • JH
    James H.
    10 August 2020 @ 10:18
    Dreadful and amateurish transmission. Again, it didn't start on time and many segments had voice muted. Charts did not display each time. Topics were unstructured. Stck to macro guidance and don't spend time on trading tips You let yourself down badly with this very poor transmission.
  • GL
    G L.
    10 August 2020 @ 09:52
    Thanks again for another great talk! On Julian's point about the Feb coming in with another slug of QE in Sept - something that could break the dollar: this would imply the ECB is not going to do much on the QE front towards the end of this year and the Euro surges. I find the prospect of a quiet ECB very unlikely. I think longer term dollar bears may be forgetting the corollary of a weak USD is a stronger euro and I see that as fairly unlikely as well in view of Europe's recovery and its high beta to exports (facing secular and cyclical pressures). Will the euro strengthen in periods? Sure. Will it be a sustained strengthening? Probably not, but let's see.
  • MJ
    Matthew J.
    10 August 2020 @ 07:15
    Love it overall, just the Q&A format is running its course. Once every 2-3 months not every month please. Please just keep it to Macro themes. Trading and sizing 101 is getting boring. Real Vision Pro clients should know how to trade. If not learn without boring the rest of us.
  • AL
    Aaron L.
    10 August 2020 @ 07:07
    Hi When you say Silver has a vol of X vs the aussie or another instrument, are you looking at a 30 Day standard deviation or something else?
  • JK
    James K.
    10 August 2020 @ 01:05
    Julian, You mentioned that you were forecasting 2.75% CPI for next year. You also mentioned oil right before that but energy only makes up a few percent of the CPI calculation. Could you give a little color on how you are getting to 2.75%? Thanks
  • MA
    MARIO A.
    9 August 2020 @ 23:28
    I'm sorry the out of context question, which platform do you use to present those charts? thanks,
    • JK
      James K.
      10 August 2020 @ 01:02
      Bloomberg
  • NL
    Nicholas L.
    9 August 2020 @ 12:43
    I can't believe 25% of people didn't like this video. Most interesting discussion I've watched in a while! Love it when Raoul and Julian disagree and we get to hear their thinking. Puts any other financial literacy content to shame.
    • JK
      James K.
      10 August 2020 @ 00:58
      Haters gonna hate.
  • AP
    Aneil P.
    9 August 2020 @ 06:55
    Bitcoin is interesting but Ethereum is even more interesting. ETH is a world computer, BTC is a pocket calculator. BTC can actually live inside Ethereum's blockchain. BTC is horrendously inefficient with this POW algorithm. ETH, Cardano or EOS is the way to go.
    • KP
      Koenraad P.
      9 August 2020 @ 13:40
      "Gold is interesting but Silver is even more interesting. Silver is a world industrial good. Gold is simple jewelry. Silver is the best electrical and thermal conductor. Gold is way less efficient with his electrical conductivity. Silver, Copper or aluminum is the way to go." SMH.
    • CH
      Crag H.
      9 August 2020 @ 18:50
      Just take a look at how Ethereum is built, run and governed and you'll realize it's a mess. Bitcoin is still the only thing that matters.
    • jp
      jeetendra p.
      9 August 2020 @ 22:29
      Ethereum's attack surface is bigger than Bitcoin. The recent Defi hacks are proof of it. The simplicity of Bitcoin makes it more secure and a better store of value. The store of value aspect will capture more capital. Real estate is a traditional store of value which is around 222 trillion dollars. Imagine when the ultra rich realize there is something better than real estate to store their wealth. With Real estate you have geo-political risk, maintenance overhead, papework overhead, depreciation.
  • SB
    Samuel B.
    9 August 2020 @ 14:03
    You guys need better microphones.
  • sg
    scott g.
    9 August 2020 @ 12:10
    fattest guy on the longest board.....im going to have to borrow this
  • TN
    Tim N.
    9 August 2020 @ 09:35
    Would like to here about Raoul's top go to the beach trades!
  • JW
    Jeff W.
    8 August 2020 @ 04:15
    "We are getting the fattest bastard on the planet to walk on the longest diving board out there". Just too funny, Julian. Enjoyed the rest too.
    • PC
      Paul C.
      9 August 2020 @ 05:51
      Julian gives the most hilarious analogies in financial media!
  • HC
    Hao C.
    9 August 2020 @ 04:53
    I’m responsibly long bitcoin. But does that actually make me irresponsibly long bitcoin?
  • DP
    Duane P.
    9 August 2020 @ 04:03
    Thank you for this!
  • TM
    The-First-James M.
    8 August 2020 @ 00:07
    Why in the heck does this have 100 thumbs down?! Raoul, I have to wonder if some of your FinTwit trolls managed to find theie way in here...
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      8 August 2020 @ 00:37
      I think its because the video failed at first so didn't work for anyone. Im hoping it was a tech fail thumbs down!
    • MJ
      Max J.
      8 August 2020 @ 01:23
      100 thumbs down? A bizarre injustice to the quality opinions of Raoul & Julian. It's hard to believe the authenticity of the count.
    • KH
      Kevin H.
      9 August 2020 @ 01:19
      People need to take a breath and relax! Go for a walk, run, have a drink...or all 3 at once. Tech issues happen. Vote on content. I’ve learned so much! Thanks Raoul!
  • PR
    Prashanth R.
    7 August 2020 @ 21:10
    @RV what would you say should be my capital size to get the full value of RV pro?
    • AT
      Alun T.
      7 August 2020 @ 22:06
      I asked that before I joined...Raoul courteous enough to reply. $250,000 fund minimum with some degree of sophistication ie options trading ability. Hope that helps.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      7 August 2020 @ 22:28
      I think many people with portfolio's of $50k and upwards have found it valuable enough to easily pay for itself. Its more about experience levels. Its really is for intermediate and above.
    • ly
      lena y.
      8 August 2020 @ 01:39
      The younger one is the more valuable this membership is as we are learning how to invest. This is a life long skill to stay afloat. Manage our own money for life!
    • HC
      Hao C.
      9 August 2020 @ 00:53
      Just take $3500 and divide by your portfolio size and see if that percentage is reasonable. $3,500/$250,000 = 1.4%.
  • GP
    Gordon P.
    8 August 2020 @ 23:36
    Raoul/Julian -- thank you for allowing us Essential folks to watch video -- much appreciated -- awesome
  • AT
    Alun T.
    7 August 2020 @ 22:07
    Slack Channel guys...anybody help?
    • SS
      S S.
      8 August 2020 @ 00:00
      Rvfans.slack.com
    • RA
      Robert A.
      8 August 2020 @ 23:30
      What is password?
  • DS
    David S.
    8 August 2020 @ 05:01
    An excellent discussion in a crazy world. IMHO the main market determinants until fall 2021 are completely unknowable, but start with the word COVID. Firstly, the spread of COVID-19 - faster or slower anywhere in the world. Secondly, the human reaction to the spread of COVID-19 - better or worse social distancing. Thirdly, the possible therapeutics that can be life savings and speed recovery. Fourthly, if a vaccine is more than 60% effective for six months can be developed before – two months will not work. I trade in, out and around precious metals from 30% to 0%, balance in cash for now. Precious metals are the only thing I trust if I am stuck in the trade at 74. If I do not like the set up, I sell. I would like to make money on my money, but it is not necessary to live the rest of my life. It is imperative that I do not lose too much. As Mr. Pal stated, it is your portfolio and you must own your trades. If you do not own your trades and mitigate your own risks, you would be better to take a portion of your portfolio and have a professional do it for you. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      8 August 2020 @ 05:55
      I agree with Mr. Brigden that much of COVID-19 is hyped by the media, but I still feel the human reaction to COVID-19 will set the tone for the world economy for a long time. Where I live, we went into partial lockdown again. Community spread is causing the problem – funerals, weddings, parties. All over the world, partial lockdowns will be required over and over. People will not follow the rules and the virus does not sleep. It will take years for businesses to recover all over the world. How will governments react? How will citizens react? There are so many unknowns. At the moment the virus is winning because humans are not being rational. Even Germany is having problems with groups not willing to wear masks. DLS
    • ly
      lena y.
      8 August 2020 @ 14:19
      Hi! David! I’m in situation like yours senior retired! Where do you get income for your cash? TIAA Will charge me expenses by parking cash in money market fund next year!
    • DS
      David S.
      8 August 2020 @ 15:10
      lena y. - I do not have any cash income. I am retired and just living off savings and SS. I own my condo, so my expenses are low; even less with the best restaurants closed and travel restrictions. I play the market with a limited amount of savings mostly for fun. I keep in touch with the world and smart people with RVTV. Good luck. DLS
    • ly
      lena y.
      8 August 2020 @ 19:03
      Me too David! I love this game of investment. Always have something new to learn to stimulate the brain! To stay young!
  • BK
    Bruce K.
    7 August 2020 @ 21:46
    Gentle reminder to the RV Team ... kindly post an invitation to the slack channel. Thanks much!
    • RB
      Robert B.
      7 August 2020 @ 22:42
      Yes, please post a link for joining the slack channel
    • SS
      S S.
      8 August 2020 @ 00:01
      rvfans.slack.com
    • MB
      Mark B.
      8 August 2020 @ 03:25
      I tried this: rvfans.slack.com. Seems to only work for people that are already registered. Please do send out the invitation to join.
    • VN
      Vano N.
      8 August 2020 @ 09:20
      Same here. @RV Staff - please send the invitation to subscribers.
    • AK
      Aleksandr K.
      8 August 2020 @ 12:06
      I cant login either
    • WM
      Warren M.
      8 August 2020 @ 18:45
      I would be most appreciative if RV would provide instructions on how to access RV Fans on Slack. I have sent several messages via CONTACT US on RV's website, but no response.
  • PL
    Paul L.
    8 August 2020 @ 17:15
    Did Julian say BTC to 15-16 thousand or 50 - 60 thousand?
    • DP
      Daniella P.
      8 August 2020 @ 18:43
      I heard $15-16k
  • GS
    George S.
    8 August 2020 @ 09:34
    I'm 70 and am recovering from Covid-19. Over the course of my life I've had lots of horrible illnesses, since I've travelled off the beaten path, especially when I was young. I survived virtually unscathed from a bout of polio in my youth and have had Ross River fever and a whole lot more. Believe me when I tell you that CV-19 is not a beat-up... Maybe you won't get it and maybe if you do it will be a non-event, but I would have paid a huge vigorish not to have met this beast face to face.
    • AB
      Alastair B.
      8 August 2020 @ 16:53
      Get well soon mate. Stay tough.
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    8 August 2020 @ 16:30
    Raoul is right about Bitcoin. I'd elaborate, but I've been told my knowledge delivery isn't palatable for many. Its more of a litmus test - if you're easily emotional then you probably shouldn't be involved in rational disciplines like trading. If that annoys you, imagine being invested in an asset that for years has been derided and scorned, proclaimed "dead" over 320+ times, and is the subject of mocking laughter in all mainstream circles. It would make you circumspect about people too.
    • SW
      Sarah W.
      8 August 2020 @ 16:48
      Amen. I started buying in April 2017 using DCA. The only break I had was March-September 2018. Buying late 2018/early 2019 was incredibly tough, but once you’ve gone down the rabbit hole and set it against the macroeconomic backdrop of QE and failing fiat currencies, it’s the most important opportunity for the man on the street.
  • RM
    R M.
    8 August 2020 @ 14:46
    Raoul: Monsoon trade, PAK? Too early? Is there a trade on this India telco? Do you have preferred mechanism for Bitcoin? Julian: Followed you on the silver and gdx trades, thank you very much! That vix vxn spread will be interesting to watch....If the wave of covid subsides, the money already printed could flood into financial assets even more in 2021. Could be breathtaking.... Harry has the best announcer voice ever!
  • JD
    John D.
    8 August 2020 @ 12:26
    Great Conversation... Thanks Guys...
  • BA
    Bruce A.
    8 August 2020 @ 10:10
    What a great combo. Listening to these two guys is phenomenal value. Thank you RV.
  • BB
    Bojo B.
    8 August 2020 @ 09:23
    Great discussion, thank you for making it available. As for the rockstar of all viruses, it is interesting to type into google: ANY tri-digit number + ''new cases''. There is a bloody story on basically any of these numbers.
  • MO
    Matthew O.
    8 August 2020 @ 05:52
    Does anyone evaluate environmental change, like temperature and humitity increases, when talking about the future of emerging markets? Stories like farmers having to work at night in Vietnam because of daytime heat has made me think. Anyone factoring?
    • MO
      Matthew O.
      8 August 2020 @ 06:01
      I should add flooding too
    • TP
      Toby P.
      8 August 2020 @ 08:39
      It would be really interesting to see some videos on this sort of thing. I work closely with insurance linked securities and if we couple natural disasters, which are increasing, and COVID related economic strain the potential impacts are significant. However, it does serve as an opportunity for alternative products, cat bonds, resilience bonds etc. Hearing from people in this space would be great.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    8 August 2020 @ 06:58
    Thank you Raoul and Julian. Impressive.
  • BA
    Bob A.
    8 August 2020 @ 04:56
    I was happy to hear that you have a slack channel app coming.
  • EO
    Elena O.
    8 August 2020 @ 02:58
    There was a tech glitch. I could not login or even load the site from Singapore. So did not manage to watch it live.
  • JT
    Jay T.
    8 August 2020 @ 02:20
    What was cut out at around 43:50 when Raoul mentioned Hauwei?
  • sh
    steve h.
    8 August 2020 @ 02:11
    thanks I really learn alot from RV. Never thought in the last year I could make so much in TLT GLD
  • CL
    Christopher L.
    8 August 2020 @ 02:02
    Bro 104 down votes 😂 after I got no trial expiration email, I was charged. The type of content thats offered should be half the cost. It's just a shell of the old RV. There's little edge. "Here's what I think about bonds." "Here's what I think about the dollar." I mean ok I've heard it all before.
  • BK
    Brett K.
    8 August 2020 @ 01:57
    Raoul, please don't go mad on bitcoin. I respect you too much for a 100% allocation anything... Julian, I've been hugely impressed with your thinking over this last year. Clear eyed, dispassionate analysis through all the craziness. Well done & thank you. On a side note, who are the 45% down voting this??? What are they hoping to see instead??
  • JT
    Jay T.
    8 August 2020 @ 01:40
    Thanks guys. Excellent discussion and I appreciate you making it available to all.
  • DR
    Danilo R.
    8 August 2020 @ 01:38
    Probably spend too much time listening to Raul as my portfolio closed positions is about 80% winners, with the FX dollar being my biggest losing position. Since it’s so low beta the paper losses are neutralized by the upside of precious metals. To be honest, this phase 3 trading has been a bit more challenging despite the recent streak from the precious metals. Thanks for the preview.
  • AL
    Aaron L.
    8 August 2020 @ 01:13
    Thanks guys for putting this on for the essential subscribers, much appreciated. Cheers
  • SS
    S S.
    7 August 2020 @ 23:59
    Great job
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    7 August 2020 @ 21:50
    Interesting that Raoul is contemplating going all in (100%) on Bitcoin. That would be brave. Hope it works out well for him.
  • CC
    Charles C.
    7 August 2020 @ 17:12
    Can we get an update from Realvision?
  • CC
    Charles C.
    7 August 2020 @ 17:11
    Still no video
  • av
    ajit v.
    7 August 2020 @ 16:33
    I can’t see the video
  • MM
    Melvyn M.
    7 August 2020 @ 16:25
    Anyone else having issues? I’m receiving a bad gateway error msg😕
    • CE
      Carl E.
      7 August 2020 @ 16:28
      I am getting “Sorry This video will be available shortly.