Insider Talks – December 2020 (LIVE)

Published on
December 8th, 2020
Duration
65 minutes

Irresponsibly Longer: Flash Update November 30, 2020


Insider Talks – December 2020 (LIVE)

Insider Talks ·
Featuring Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden

Published on: December 8th, 2020 • Duration: 65 minutes

In this month's Insider Talk, Raoul and Julian will be going live at 1:15 PM EDT on December 9th to discuss their recent thoughts and answer questions from all of our Real Vision members.

Comments

Transcript

  • JJ
    Jay J.
    6 January 2021 @ 16:59
    it would be great if more content from the pro plan was released for plus subscribers. so much content from the RV plus and standard memberships is released for free i'm contemplating not renewing my plus subscription and just waiting to watch it on youtube and using the money i spend on the plus plan for fundstrat
  • CE
    Carol E.
    13 December 2020 @ 21:14
    As a founding member, I am confused. Before we where sold different offerings, and then in 2018, there was only one fee for everything. At that time, I subscribed for two years. And now even though my subscription has not expired, I cannot access everything. What is Real Vision Pro? That's what I am listed as. But what is Real Vision Plus? I could not access the "Plus" even though I paid for everything in 2018. Is this something new that I am not aware of and was never told about? Am I not entitled to everything under my subscription? I paid two years in advance in 2018, so I never looked to see what I had already paid for which I thought was everything. Now a one year bill is now almost double what I paid for for one year in 2018. What am I missing? If I don't get an answer, I will post my question on twitter. Maybe someone there can help me figure out what is going on.
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      6 January 2021 @ 07:57
      Carol, I know we might have talked about this and if you encounter issues viewing or reading you can get in touch with me directly as you have a Pro membership so there should be no issues in viewing or reading.
  • DA
    David A.
    3 January 2021 @ 11:05
    As a Plus member, I've enjoyed being given access to this "Pro" video. It's an interesting discussion in which the Real Vision house view is explained clearly. However, it didn't say anything new or particularly enlightening to this "Real Vision Plus" mind. It was more that it was a focussed discussion presented in a helpful format - a good use of time compared to navigating the diverse but hit and miss content made available in the lower tiers. Will it persuade me to upgrade to Pro? Probably not as the price seems steep to me. If anything, I may drop Real Vision altogether as it does expose the weakness of Plus membership. It's like an incomplete jigsaw. There's no reason why such a high price should be levied for the few missing pieces other than they are important in order to appreciate the full picture.
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      6 January 2021 @ 07:52
      David, our interviews and videos aren't designed to offer you bits and pieces but rather give you the whole picture and then go deeper based on your needs. In addition to our classic approach to interviews, Plus offers you live videos with direct guest interaction and reports on a rather regular basis nowadays. Macro Insiders/Pro was created a few years ago as a way to accommodate affordable research in a world where this cost between $20 and $40 a year. Over time the product improved and simply by going through the trades they both proposed over the years, we'd be winning. This only because the actual trades are a small part of their research and getting access to their way of thinking and executing is what matters most of the time.
  • JK
    James K.
    10 December 2020 @ 20:37
    Great discussion guys ....Thanks for all your research and analysis, truly appreciated. So many advisory services are literally just BS. They never report their track records. One slick service constantly disparages “Old Wall”, when they themselves acts that way, when it comes to offering up a performance track record. Not Real Vision Pro....honestly and integrity are lost values in this world, but not in the RV world. Have a great Holiday Season !
    • DA
      David A.
      3 January 2021 @ 09:58
      I share your scepticism about the well known "Old Wall" denigrator you refer to. However he and his sidekick regularly appear on Real Vision.
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    2 January 2021 @ 18:30
    I find this lacking. The political landscape wasn't even considered other than the "transition". There are sufficient legal issues present that allege widespread fraud which were in motion when this was taped, and have only accelerated. Macro should be aware of this, but all we got is a preponderance of laughter about golfing. Way to be on point, lads. Raoul's crypto trade doesn't mention his love affair with ETH, (and a considerable amount of affection for XRP) which has considerable risk - even moreso than Bitcoin itself. He's said elsewhere that he has a 80%/20% weighting on BTC/ETH respectively. Not acknowledging the panic-pivot ETH is taking to Proof-of-Stake doesn't instill confidence on that leg of the trade. If the above isn't considered or expounded upon, why even claim to be Macro at all? Pass.
  • JY
    John Y.
    2 January 2021 @ 14:47
    Raoul's comment 26:00 .... perhaps the CB's have long term anesthetized the bond markets.
  • PR
    Prashanth R.
    30 December 2020 @ 20:28
    It would be very helpful if you could do an educational video on the concept of real rates and its calculation and impacts in different economic environments. I understand the basic concept of Real rates = Returns - Inflation but i feel like i am missing something?
  • ga
    glenn a.
    10 December 2020 @ 00:14
    usually this is a 2 way conversation. cant stand one way conversation that julian dominates
    • RC
      RUBEN C.
      10 December 2020 @ 17:46
      Try not to see it like that. Maybe this time Julian had the need to talk a bit more. Meditation would help you to see it that way. R
    • PS
      Patrick S.
      13 December 2020 @ 22:31
      LOL. A couple of years ago, I met Julian personally and complained to him that Raoul was drowning him and cutting him off during the monthly insider talks . He very politely responded that Raoul was a mate of his and he should be allowed to speak his mind. When the shoe is on the other foot, Raoul respects Julian too.
  • MB
    Mathew B.
    12 December 2020 @ 12:17
    I just love this stuff. Keep doing it.
  • af
    andrew f.
    11 December 2020 @ 10:17
    Hey Raoul, if you like beaches and sharks, bloody white pointers, come spend a bit of time with us in Perth, Australia.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      11 December 2020 @ 11:46
      Haven't spent time there, also hiked the Kimberly and spent time in Margaret River... and also dived with Great Whites in South Africa (in a cage).
  • LM
    Lorin M.
    11 December 2020 @ 01:37
    Not sure I'm smart enough to square the circle on "real estate loaded up with long-term debt will probably be okay" (paraphrase) and "the insolvency phase is still playing out." Wouldn't widespread real estate foreclosures occupy center court from start to finish in a large insolvency event?
  • DM
    Don M.
    10 December 2020 @ 21:20
    Hey Raoul, how does one move to Cayman?
    • JL
      J L.
      10 December 2020 @ 23:14
      bit of poshness bit of arrogance lot of money
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      11 December 2020 @ 00:07
      Get a job here....simple as that.
  • Am
    Alex m.
    10 December 2020 @ 06:43
    Was JB saying EWW when meaning EEM?
    • JL
      J L.
      10 December 2020 @ 11:29
      well spotted
    • JW
      James W.
      10 December 2020 @ 13:56
      Wondering this as well...
    • CH
      Charlie H.
      10 December 2020 @ 16:58
      I would assume so given him saying the big China weighting.
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    10 December 2020 @ 00:57
    Regarding the 1929 chart pattern that didn't roll over (in terms of the current stock-market pattern), if the 2001-2004 pattern doesn't hold as well, would this indicate a high-probability that the insolvency theme (for equities correcting - not the real economy) is done for? And if so, where does one draw the line on the idea: "That this time is different"? Is this time different now?
    • CH
      Charlie H.
      10 December 2020 @ 16:57
      Definitely different with all the CBs all in to support this market. Throw the classic patterns out the window in my opinion.
  • RW
    Richard W.
    10 December 2020 @ 13:15
    Julian has started interrupting again ......
  • DF
    David F.
    10 December 2020 @ 12:44
    It's been a weird year, but thanks to you guys the best year as well. That from an amateur is quite impressive. Enjoy the festive season.
  • JW
    J W.
    10 December 2020 @ 08:14
    Real Vision has become 'essential' for me. The proof of the pudding is in the profit and happy to say I have made plenty of that this year, so thank you for that. But it's more than that - the community, the insights, the quality of the people and the programming and empowerment one gets from RV as a retail investor is tremendous. Wishing you and the RV team all the best, happy holidays, xmas and let's see if we can make 2021 into a better year for the world !
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 December 2020 @ 11:38
      Thanks JW!
  • rm
    ralph m.
    10 December 2020 @ 09:26
    we are very impressed (positive) by Raoul's views on Bitcoin. We are long too. We would like to know what he means about the following point: How does he see the risk, considering that the state will never tolerate any real competition with its own currency and due to the increasing number of votes that the mainstream portrays bitcoin as criminal, it will eventually become too much for the state and would ban bitcoin or introduce a high transaction tax ? Many thanks. Ralph
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      10 December 2020 @ 11:38
      I dont think it will happen if they are regulating it - it shows acceptance. Stable coins will likely see bans over time as they directly compete with CBDC. Bitcoin acts like gold in a digital financial system, and they haven't banned gold (people have tried but it never lasts). Also, for them to consider banning it, it probably needs to go up 50x in market cap first...
  • DG
    Dmitri G.
    10 December 2020 @ 08:19
    This format of conversation is my favourite by far. Isaac Azimov‘a “Foundation” style: when you talk about the development and changes, then look back, analyze the changes and make adjustments. Great work. I really love and appreciate what you do. Thank you!
  • WL
    Wolfgang L.
    10 December 2020 @ 07:12
    Enjoyed your personal comments at the end also very much - it's been a fun journey with you guys over the years -- Thanks a lot!
  • JW
    Jim W.
    10 December 2020 @ 04:47
    I've heard "dollar-yen hasn't moved in 20 years" and I'm a bit confused (I think HH said this with RP too). The range has been between 135ish or so to 75ish over the past 20 years. For a major currency, that seems pretty big to me.
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    10 December 2020 @ 02:44
    Brilliant as always. Thanks Raoul, Julian & Harry. Thanks for all the great information this year. Have a great (best as you can) holiday season.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    10 December 2020 @ 02:23
    Thank you guys! Happy Christmas and New Year to you and your families, and thanks for guiding us through a fascinating year in history.
  • CF
    Christopher F.
    10 December 2020 @ 00:53
    Load up on gold or btc, sit back and watch them unload on fiscal and hope for the best in your country. Got a good laugh on that one! Funny, sad, and true at the same time.
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    10 December 2020 @ 00:44
    To RP point: "all monetarists were wrong too..." I could be wrong, but was the flaw in the monetarists' argument the overlooked point that banks did not (could not) lend out those "printed dollars"? And therefore, the velocity of money stayed low (very low), hence deflation. Is that correct? If so, what is the "elephant-in-the-room" flaw in the fiscal stimulus rationale that we will get inflation. going forward? I think by spotting (or searching and finding) these "core flaws" we can better (much better) stack the odds in the right direction for the future investment allocations. Looking back over the last 10 years it seems you could go back in time (I know this is hindsight bias I speak) and say: "We will not get inflation from fed money printing, and that is simply because banks can't (or won't) lend the QE-printed cash into the economy. And, given the fundamentals of the economy are weak (demographics, high debt, etc.) the real economy is going to struggle. Therefore, inflation is a low-probability event". Ok - then where should we we invest (think we're back in 2009)? What has a low-to-negative correlation with the real economy? Perhaps tech? Is the tech sector growing? Yep...ok, let's consider an allocation to the tech sector (and bonds of course). I know the above is terribly simplistic, but surely there's a way to end the deflation vs. inflation debate by way of finding the core, elephant-in-the-room flaws within the rationales (assuming there is one on the inflation side)? Thoughts? Warm regards, Matt P.
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    10 December 2020 @ 00:26
    RP and JB --- we need a new economics! An economics for the 21st Century! That's what I've asked Santa for this Christmas ; ) PS: I think a great idea for Real Vision, is to start constructing a new-school all thing economics and investing!
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    10 December 2020 @ 00:19
    Thanks guys - as always, great piece! Regarding the 16 trillion numbers: 1. Is that 16T fiscal and monetary (assuming so)? 2. For the monetary - how does this actually "get into the economy" considering banks don't want/can't to lend (i.e.Lacy Hunt rationale); 3. Regarding fiscal, is the assumption "direct-to-pocket" stimulus? That is, government directly gives cash to people. Or, is the assumption purely infrastructure-type stimulus? If the latter (or more skewed towards the latter), how does that drive the economy and stocks (assuming the Japan story holds here and that infrastructure stimulus simply results in misallocated capital)? Regarding the above, I'm trying to understand how this 16T gets "into the market" so to speak. On a separate note: Have a great Chrissy and happy New Years! Warm regards, Matt P.