Hi Jaco, Here is a link to the slack team: https://join.slack.com/t/rvfans/shared_invite/zt-frwuzh9y-JppjcfJ6RX2K4ssBt7p7_w

https://swpcayman.com/

Tks

is there a link to the offer. I am not getting emails right now

What is the deal RV has with SWP?

Once signed up you can use this direct link to the document. https://rvfans.slack.com/archives/C0166PG0LF2/p1594128553436700

Thank you

Mind sharing again? Im a pro member but link doesnt work

So you could buy a TIP and short a bond future against it, but thats messy and you have to roll the future. So its really for people who are very comfortable with fixed income and futures trading risks. An alternative is the FCPI US ETF. This is the Fidelity Stocks for Inflation ETF which is a designed to be well correlated to CPI as a factor. So you might run a spread long FCPI and short the SPX (S&P500 ETF). Personally I think it has too many moving parts and I wouldnt recommend doing it. Instead I would say the following. 1) Do breakevens if you are comfortable shorting bond futures to hedge a TIP. 2) If that sounds tricky, sell any government bond funds and switch them into TIP funds. 3) If you were bullish equities, you might consider buying the FCPI ETF which is designed to be correlated to inflation. However if you didnt want equity risk I wouldnt do it.

Now I understand how you guys play with breakevens. This one is clearly not for me at this point. Thank you very much for your explanation, Harry!

Tesla?

Absolutely right. "Bezzles" become apparent when the money gets hard to find. But surely WeWork counts as one already? And there will be more. Very easy money since 2009.

I think both JB and RP have a lot of sympathy for that assessment. I know I do. I often think about executive order 6102 (signed by FDR in 1933).

Our pleasure.

They are on 🔥

Love NG and FNV.

There was a lot of discussion of gold in the video. GDX was mentioned, Its certainly one way to get exposure.

I suppose so. But in the big picture grain prices are scrapping along the floor. Corns prices in particular are very low on the long term basis. Yes there has recently been a bit of a rally, but its nothing in the long term context.

The framework Im using is liquidity adjusted QE currently but FX is Baysean and tends to shift around with what the key influences are.

I'm looking at the YoY excess reserves in euro area shifted in the future by 10 months vs EUR/USD YoY... Data from ECB website... It tracks pretty well going back to the initial ECB QE, but especially well since late 2015 / early 2016. Can't wrap my head around it and unsure if it's just spurious (i.e. why wouldn't this be euro negative). If it's accurate it would suggest explosion up to 1.24 by March... Also leads the Euro area Manufacturing PMI by 10 months uncaningly well

Correction: shifting forward 8 months

Part of me thinks it's all about eurodollar funding

Posted a chart deck in the #trades section in RV slack.... Lmk what y'all think

Long EUR/USD 😎 1.24 by 3/2021 Break of 1.14 and prob scream to 1.2

Oh and buy HBAR

That's my preferred crypto...

Bitcoins should be in that mix for the asymmetric bet. Doesn’t even have to be that much.

https://bit.ly/slack-rv-fans

Thank you