Insider Talks – July 2020 (LIVE)

Published on
July 7th, 2020
Duration
70 minutes

Insider Talks – July 2020 (LIVE)

Insider Talks ·
Featuring Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden

Published on: July 7th, 2020 • Duration: 70 minutes

In this month's Insider Talk, Raoul and Julian will be going live at 12:15 PM EDT on July 7th to discuss their recent thoughts and answer questions from our Real Vision Pro and Blacklist members.

Comments

Transcript

  • JV
    Jaco V.
    15 July 2020 @ 11:43
    Hey gents, love the iidea of a slack channel. Would you mind sharing? I cannot seem to get access. Thanks!
    • SH
      Sahil H.
      19 July 2020 @ 00:02
      Hi Jaco, Here is a link to the slack team: https://join.slack.com/t/rvfans/shared_invite/zt-frwuzh9y-JppjcfJ6RX2K4ssBt7p7_w
  • Cd
    Christiano d.
    8 July 2020 @ 17:20
    I didn't understand the name of the service @Raoul is using to store gold. Did anyone get it? tks
    • HC
      Hao C.
      8 July 2020 @ 17:55
      https://swpcayman.com/
    • Cd
      Christiano d.
      8 July 2020 @ 18:01
      Tks
    • PG
      Parminder G.
      8 July 2020 @ 20:57
      is there a link to the offer. I am not getting emails right now
    • JC
      Jeff C.
      16 July 2020 @ 03:51
      What is the deal RV has with SWP?
  • BF
    Brad F.
    8 July 2020 @ 06:45
    Join 359 other pro members and 2 RV founders in the free RV Fans Slack chat: http://bit.ly/slack-rv-fans. You will find Raoul’s document in the #fx room.
    • BF
      Brad F.
      8 July 2020 @ 06:46
      Once signed up you can use this direct link to the document. https://rvfans.slack.com/archives/C0166PG0LF2/p1594128553436700
    • RW
      Richard W.
      8 July 2020 @ 08:16
      Thank you
    • JV
      Jaco V.
      14 July 2020 @ 09:05
      Mind sharing again? Im a pro member but link doesnt work
  • TW
    Timothy W.
    13 July 2020 @ 21:16
    The incorporation of charts into the process while discussing the material at same time is great
  • HH
    Hugh H.
    8 July 2020 @ 00:16
    How/where can we buy breakevens?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      9 July 2020 @ 20:30
      So you could buy a TIP and short a bond future against it, but thats messy and you have to roll the future. So its really for people who are very comfortable with fixed income and futures trading risks. An alternative is the FCPI US ETF. This is the Fidelity Stocks for Inflation ETF which is a designed to be well correlated to CPI as a factor. So you might run a spread long FCPI and short the SPX (S&P500 ETF). Personally I think it has too many moving parts and I wouldnt recommend doing it. Instead I would say the following. 1) Do breakevens if you are comfortable shorting bond futures to hedge a TIP. 2) If that sounds tricky, sell any government bond funds and switch them into TIP funds. 3) If you were bullish equities, you might consider buying the FCPI ETF which is designed to be correlated to inflation. However if you didnt want equity risk I wouldnt do it.
    • HH
      Hugh H.
      10 July 2020 @ 00:14
      Now I understand how you guys play with breakevens. This one is clearly not for me at this point. Thank you very much for your explanation, Harry!
  • GL
    G L.
    8 July 2020 @ 16:42
    The signal to the next leg of the downturn? Look out for the rogue trader. They usually get unearthed at this point in an economic crisis. We've seen the fraud (Wirecard), and surely there's more of that to come, so rogue trader(s) cannot be too far away. The only question is which bank or financial institution will it be that takes the hit.
    • SH
      Stu H.
      8 July 2020 @ 19:01
      Tesla?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      9 July 2020 @ 21:11
      Absolutely right. "Bezzles" become apparent when the money gets hard to find. But surely WeWork counts as one already? And there will be more. Very easy money since 2009.
  • hb
    hilde b.
    8 July 2020 @ 08:50
    Would you agree on the view off Pierre Lasonde founder off Franco Nevada that gold price will be 20 000u$. in 30 years time ? It seems clear that the world is headed for a new monetary era, MMT or call it communisn light and more and more wealth taxation everywhere being imposed simply because off structural unemployment and too much inequality being created. This is a vicious circle because it ends up empoverishing the middle class so more poverty....etc, etc,,, As we all know poverty creates socialism and communisn. And also gold being prohibited to own privately andbought up by the central planners for a while most likely at a certain (higher) level.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      9 July 2020 @ 20:58
      I think both JB and RP have a lot of sympathy for that assessment. I know I do. I often think about executive order 6102 (signed by FDR in 1933).
  • DB
    Dan B.
    8 July 2020 @ 01:23
    Thanks for picking up my question on coming into the portfolio - appreciate it :)
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      9 July 2020 @ 20:44
      Our pleasure.
  • NK
    Nir K.
    8 July 2020 @ 00:39
    What about gold miners stocks guys ? Don’t you think those are worth a mention??!
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      8 July 2020 @ 12:25
      They are on 🔥
    • HC
      Hao C.
      8 July 2020 @ 17:58
      Love NG and FNV.
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      9 July 2020 @ 20:32
      There was a lot of discussion of gold in the video. GDX was mentioned, Its certainly one way to get exposure.
  • JM
    John M.
    8 July 2020 @ 00:34
    DBA - This seems to be related to China/US trade deal (DBA includes both Soybeans and pork?) Is there a risk if the trade deal breaks down?
    • HM
      Harry M. | Real Vision
      9 July 2020 @ 20:31
      I suppose so. But in the big picture grain prices are scrapping along the floor. Corns prices in particular are very low on the long term basis. Yes there has recently been a bit of a rally, but its nothing in the long term context.
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    7 July 2020 @ 22:50
    Raoul and Julian--do you have any reliable leading indicators for the EUR/USD pair? I'm personally looking for it to hit 1.24 by March based in what I'm looking at.... Curious if there are any other leading indicators out there...
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      7 July 2020 @ 23:44
      The framework Im using is liquidity adjusted QE currently but FX is Baysean and tends to shift around with what the key influences are.
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      8 July 2020 @ 00:05
      I'm looking at the YoY excess reserves in euro area shifted in the future by 10 months vs EUR/USD YoY... Data from ECB website... It tracks pretty well going back to the initial ECB QE, but especially well since late 2015 / early 2016. Can't wrap my head around it and unsure if it's just spurious (i.e. why wouldn't this be euro negative). If it's accurate it would suggest explosion up to 1.24 by March... Also leads the Euro area Manufacturing PMI by 10 months uncaningly well
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      8 July 2020 @ 00:12
      Correction: shifting forward 8 months
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      8 July 2020 @ 01:19
      Part of me thinks it's all about eurodollar funding
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      9 July 2020 @ 00:09
      Posted a chart deck in the #trades section in RV slack.... Lmk what y'all think
  • JW
    J W.
    8 July 2020 @ 06:58
    One the one hand. "Cash is the worst place to be" (at least according to Julian). On the other hand: revealing to see how little conviction the two of you seem to have about entering new positions right now. I don't blame you. It is a strange world. I am currently about 1/3 in cash, 1/3 in precious metals (but gradually selling into the rally), and 1/3 in tradtional stocks/bonds. Anybody with better ideas?
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      8 July 2020 @ 17:51
      Long EUR/USD 😎 1.24 by 3/2021 Break of 1.14 and prob scream to 1.2
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      8 July 2020 @ 17:55
      Oh and buy HBAR
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      8 July 2020 @ 17:55
      That's my preferred crypto...
    • HC
      Hao C.
      8 July 2020 @ 17:56
      Bitcoins should be in that mix for the asymmetric bet. Doesn’t even have to be that much.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    8 July 2020 @ 11:07
    Thank you guys!!!
  • RW
    Richard W.
    8 July 2020 @ 05:58
    Can you identify the slack channel for those not on it, or is it private? How would one join? Thanks
    • SM
      Shantanu M.
      8 July 2020 @ 06:31
      https://bit.ly/slack-rv-fans
    • RW
      Richard W.
      8 July 2020 @ 08:16
      Thank you