Insider Talks – September 2020 (LIVE)

Published on
September 8th, 2020
Duration
64 minutes


Insider Talks – September 2020 (LIVE)

Insider Talks ·
Featuring Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden

Published on: September 8th, 2020 • Duration: 64 minutes

In this month's Insider Talk, Raoul and Julian will be going live at 12:15 PM EDT on September 8th to discuss their recent thoughts and answer questions from all of our Real Vision members.

Comments

Transcript

  • DM
    Don M.
    17 September 2020 @ 21:40
    Tips would make a good pair trade. Short TIP long TLT
  • RG
    Rob G.
    10 September 2020 @ 03:49
    Can you show us what a crash pattern looks like please?
    • CD
      Chris D.
      10 September 2020 @ 04:49
      https://ftalphaville-cdn.ft.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/GMIcrash.pdf Page 2 - this is from a GMI in 2010
    • WJ
      Willie J.
      14 September 2020 @ 12:08
      Interesting to read the GMI report from May 2010... "this is it - the mother of all crashes is here... failed rally". just shows that macro is, like all attempts to predict the future, a game of chance.
  • WJ
    Willie J.
    13 September 2020 @ 22:46
    @Raoul... so you moved from 25% allocations between USD, Gold, Crypto and trading amt. to 65% Crypto? I got burnt really badly in the 2017 run-up and crash and still licking wounds... I recall the stories about how this was going to change the future and then the crash. So, getting back into crypto slowly... you think the big difference between 2020 and 2017 is the institutional interest?
  • PL
    Pete L.
    11 September 2020 @ 20:41
    Gents. I don’t know the answer to this but....... individual TIPs have an inbuilt ‘deflation floor’. Therefore does this translate across to the ETF you mentioned; in the event of deflation can the ETF price only fall so far? Cheers. Pete
  • MT
    MICHAEL T.
    8 September 2020 @ 23:18
    Crypto, including bitcoin, is highly correllated to the stock market. If stocks tank, I'm guessing crypto tanks with it again. Please clarify your opinion on this and gold too. Gold also goes down with large stock corrections.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      9 September 2020 @ 10:42
      I think the correlation is only passing and not permanent. higher probability of QE will lift BTc and Gold. BTC is also overall uncorrelated in the longer term
    • RM
      Rohin M.
      11 September 2020 @ 11:40
      Raoul, Plan B has put on twitter that he thinks the correlation between stocks and BTC is high and will stay high. He says that both stocks and equities will go up and down together going forwards. So, I assume you do not agree with his view? Thanks
  • DF
    David F.
    11 September 2020 @ 07:21
    "My irresponsibly long is not your irresponsibly long." Beautiful advice Raoul.
  • JA
    Joseph A.
    9 September 2020 @ 01:31
    Too much cross chatter guys. Can someone clarify the TIPS advice? Long TIPS (price up yields down)?
    • np
      nick p.
      9 September 2020 @ 03:51
      they are talking about a pull back in tips. RP said hes doing research on taking a short position.
    • GL
      G L.
      9 September 2020 @ 10:46
      The suspicion was that TIPS have fully priced inflation risks, but disinflationary pressures and a deflationary shock are on the horizon, so sell and buy later.
    • JA
      Joseph A.
      9 September 2020 @ 12:03
      Ah ok thanks guys for explaining that now makes sense to me with both your messages. Appreciated.
    • AM
      A M.
      10 September 2020 @ 20:09
      For what it's worth 14 day RSI bearish divergence on the TIP ETF
  • MA
    Majed A.
    10 September 2020 @ 13:20
    Thank you all for the episode. Raoul, as a new member to the Pro community. I went back and read your Deep Dive reports. The Insolvency Phase we are getting in, I dont really understand why is this happening. I did read the reports but still cannot figure out exactly WHY you started with the idea. If we can use lets say super summary for it by saying "Companies with more dept and at the same time will be in deflation period?" Im I right in saying that? If you would help me please to see the bigger picture.
  • JW
    J W.
    9 September 2020 @ 06:28
    I am long various inflation-protected bond ETFs. I interpret this Insider Talk as if it may be a good idea now to reduce that position with the expectation to buy it back later at a lower price?
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      9 September 2020 @ 10:39
      Yes, that is our suspicion...
    • HH
      Henry H.
      10 September 2020 @ 03:09
      Raoul - your friend at Hedgeye, Keith McCullough is bullish on TIP based on the premise of money printing and we are in Quad 3 of the model in which inflation accelerates. It was awhile ago you had Keith on RV. Maybe its time to have him back =)
    • JH
      Jonathon H.
      10 September 2020 @ 12:51
      Henry don't forget Keith is agile and nimble in his positions and will dump or reverse based on fundamental data and price action. If Raoul and Teddy are right Keith certainly won't be against them. He is great value though with Raoul as their approaches and frameworks are quite complementary and the interviews are great entertainment!
  • LG
    Luca G.
    10 September 2020 @ 09:06
    Why real yields going up would push nasdaq down?
  • AE
    Andy E.
    9 September 2020 @ 21:18
    Raoul - on being long Bitcoin - have you considered this from Almost Daily Grant's??? Backed Into A Corner Time to put your money where your mouth is. Both proponents and skeptics of the purportedly dollar-backed tether cryptocurrency (USDT) now have an easier opportunity to express their views, as yesterday derivatives exchange Opium debuted credit default swaps on tether. The newfangled CDS securities would pay out in the event of a sharp decline from the $1 USDT price level established by the so-called stablecoin. Tether, widely used as a way to trade into cryptos from fiat currency and back again without being subject to the know-your-customer and anti-money laundering regulations common in traditional banking, is a key cog in the crypto “ecosystem” with $58 billion in trading volume over the past 24 hours, nearly double that of bitcoin at $31 billion. Tether and the associated Bitfinex crypto exchange have long been the subject of scrutiny regarding the claim of one-to-one backing by U.S. dollars (Almost Daily Grant’s, May 21), including a lawsuit from the New York State Attorney General accusing the pair of improperly commingling funds and a class action suit accusing Tether and Bitfinex of conducting: “a sophisticated scheme to fraudulently inflate the price of crypto commodities [including] bitcoin.” The class action litigants claim that Tether issued up to $3 billion worth of tokens without any dollar backing, a move which allegedly played a key role in skyrocketing crypto prices during late 2017. Yesterday, the pair filed a motion in New York to dismiss the lawsuit, describing the plaintiff claims as “ridiculous.” By way of evidence, iFinex (the entity behind both Tether and Bitfinex) posted a “proof of funds” on its website in the form of a 2018 letter from the law firm Freeh, Sporkin & Sullivan LLP stating that “the amount of fully-backed USD Tethers in circulation as of June 1st, 2018 was equal to $2.538 billion of USD Tethers.” However, recently updated language on the Tether website appears to offer plenty of rhetorical wiggle room on that dollar backing claim: [USDTs are] backed by our reserves, which include traditional currency and cash equivalents and, from time to time, may include other assets and receivables from loans made by Tether to third parties, which may include affiliated entities. For comparison, this language appeared on the Tether website in late 2017: All tethers are pegged at one-to-one with matching fiat currency (e.g., 1 USD? = $1) and are backed 100% by actual assets in our reserve account. Might greater scrutiny on tether pose a wider risk to bitcoin and its digital peers? A June 30 paper from Timothy Peterson, founder of Cane Island Alternative Advisors, studied price moves within the crypto market from July 2010 to May of this year and reached the following conclusion: We can say with near 100% confidence that bitcoin’s price has been fraudulently manipulated at some point in its lifespan since 2010. We can say with 95% confidence that bitcoin was manipulated in 2013; 95% confidence that bitcoin was manipulated in 2018; and 98% confidence that bitcoin was manipulated in 2019. Tethered to what again?
  • GL
    G L.
    9 September 2020 @ 10:47
    Great talk guys, as always, thank you! This is my must-see video series from the site.
  • RW
    Richard W.
    9 September 2020 @ 09:03
    Raoul, what is the appropriate price in Bitcoin, do you think, for the average Grannie? Mine is pretty good for her age.
  • BR
    Brian R.
    8 September 2020 @ 21:16
    It's hard to weight probabilities on outcomes but I think in the solvency crisis in the 30's money was taken home wasn't it? I might be wrong (someone please correct me if I am wrong) but I think I recall when things turned bad in the booming US money was taken home. So these days, if that occurs without gold backed currencies I assume the balance of probabilities will put the USD under pressure. There are strong arguments for both cases but it's the time frames I'm struggling with. Also, with a divide in global trade and general weakened demand, I presume commodities could decline but on the other hand some may become harder to come by - please correct me if I am wrong on this as well. If the bond trade is virtually over, US growth stocks simply can't grow PE's any more, then where can money go. I think it helps strengthen the commodity argument especially with the need to go hard on US stimulus relative to elsewhere - on the balance of probabilities.
    • BR
      Brian R.
      8 September 2020 @ 21:33
      also, just chatting to my wife about it, anecdotally, a friend lost their job paying quite well, won't get it back, they accessed their super early like many in Oz, who knows maybe they had a US component to that. There would be plenty of people losing jobs in a similar situation who will be forced to keep money at home rather than investing overseas.
    • RP
      Richard P.
      9 September 2020 @ 08:17
      I find this hard to agree with. Precious metals are a better alternative or crypto for me. I 100% get julians points but I think the phase between that Raoul points out has to happen to some degree. Currencies weren’t the same back then (30’s)
  • MC
    Mike C.
    9 September 2020 @ 04:43
    Julian, what's your trigger for "more QE"? A level breached on the SPX? A rate on the 10yr? What exactly is the trigger in your mind and what kind of QE are you talking about? These details matter. It was an obvious question that wasn't asked. Are you thinking more treasury securities and more corporate credit? Financial conditions have not spiked yet. So what do they do next? This is significant. Do they have do wait for financial conditions to blow out again so they are not seen to be acting outside the Federal Reserve Act? What happens if equities get a big draw down without a big spike in financial conditions? Is the next market crash the one where they (unquestionably vs questionably) tear up the Federal Reserve Act and buy equity index ETFs (through Vanguard and Blackrock of course) for an SPV set up by Munchkin and his gang of flying monkeys?
  • MS
    Mark S.
    9 September 2020 @ 01:12
    Interesting on your Tip trade. The 123 Dec puts have the highest IV out of the series from 120-126.
  • FS
    Filo S.
    9 September 2020 @ 00:54
    Raoul, yes there are options. I shorted the TIP via Cot 16, 126 stk puts. The trade is starting to work, thanks to you and your interview with Teddy Vallee