Comments
Transcript
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RKRV has gone to s*** now. Its quality has gone down tremendously. I remember the days we only had one 30min piece a day with a higher quality. Now too many pieces with more than hours or longer. Return on time spent is very low. You becomes information over-loaded and confused.
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METruly amazing, those they know & have a passion like Raul talk very simple language that everyone understand. Suck as Dr. Lacy Hunt, David Rosenberg, and 5 more. Those who make it complicated, they don’t eat, breath, sleep investment/ economy.
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IHQuote of the month for me "We just had a non-essential recession". I then spent the next 10 min lecturing the kids about getting an essential job in later life.
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DDWhy would you want female labor force participation when you don't have nearly enough kids?
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LPInteresting points on Japan, yet hard to align that with what I see living in Tokyo. Monetary / policy side can arguably be called success, but that's only part of the puzzle. The human side (demographics, huge amount of red tape, working style that kills creativity, rigid labour markets) will make sure the economy won't be growing fast any time soon. There have definitely been some policy changes to ease immigration, especially on the labour intensive sectors, yet the overall population is still shrinking fast. The un-attractive working culture combined with a very difficult language and generally racist culture will make filling the gap difficult. Maybe the point was that rest of the world will get as stagnant as Japan is, re-rating equities in rest of the world to similar valuations? In that case could work as a pair-trade, but hard to make a case for a long on it's own as a whole. Individual (export oriented) companies could definitely be attractive though.
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HSI read the San Francisco Fed research on the long term affects of pandemics, as referenced by Mr. Rosenberg. Frankly I struggle to see the applicability to the current pandemic. The said Fed paper presumed 510,000 UK deaths and 2.2 MM US deaths. These figures are not even in the ballpark for what we are witnessing. The Fed paper also surmised that in the aftermath of past pandemics there was depressed investment opportunity due to excess capital per unit of surviving labour. Well, adjust the much lower actual deaths in the current pandemic for the elderly (people not actually in the workforce), and the result puts the current pandemic further out of the ballpark.
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HRJapan is one of the most racist countries on earth. And it succeeds because they have been able to keep "others" out. If going forward that will be changing, as I believe it will, then they will eventually face the same internal problems that we are facing here. Good luck with that Japan. Human nature doesn't change despite all the whining and wishing from so many.
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RADoes anyone have an opinion on whether the etf “FLJP” would be a good vehicle for Japan investment? The performance hasn’t been great, but the .09 cost and it’s breath of Cap investments are compelling despite their modest AUM. Any help on a couple of good low cost Japan equity etfs would be appreciated (I’d like to steer clear of EWJ and DXJ).
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MII heard that James Rickards had a conversation about MMT with some well known MMT representative. I also heard that RV doesnt want to publish the interview. Im asking WHY?
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DBEd Harrison, you did a magnificent job with David Rosenberg. Great to see you two old friends doing what you do best and we are all the better for it. Thank you.
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RMDavid is of course great but RV what a great format. Ed you're a great interviewer. You let the man speak, you ask great questions, listen. This doesn't exist anywhere else on the internet or TV. Anywhere else someone would be cutting in every 2 minutes with some stupid setup question.
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mBRosenberg is one of my favorites! I’m increasing gold exposure. This is going to get real mid July!
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Abfascinating - occasional comment about New Zealand economy would be appreciated
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JDGreat interview.
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DSSolid and enjoyable interview. I wish Mr. Rosenberg continued success. It is ironic that many people talk about the economic Japanization of Western economies. Stagflation is a risk to all. The West, however, is in a much deeper hole than Japan is now. As Mr. Koo explained, the Japanese corporations took the opportunity to decrease corporate debt dramatically while US corporate executives were buying back massive amounts of stock. During the same time, the Japanese government built infrastructure all over Japan. (I remember a quote that every fishing village in Japan has a new port.) Many Western governments, corporations and individuals are highly leveraged while infrastructure in the US, Germany and other countries need major rebuilds. Stagflation in the West will start with high debt, poor infrastructure, high unemployment along with corporate and personal bankruptcies. Japan has the additional advantage of being able to supply both Asia and the West easily. The American consumer has been the basis of world GDP growth. It will take a long time for world trade to recover. I agree that Japan will be a good place to invest, but only as the world economy picks up. DLS
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VKNothing new was said. Or did I miss something?
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MTMr. Rosenberg is a great interview. Great job Ed.
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DBEd you are an epic interviewer mate, I always love your videos and interactions
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JvGreat interview, as almost always. These days Zombies eat inflation... Zombie Credit and (Dis-)Inflation: Evidence from Europe NBER Working Paper No. 27158 Issued in May 2020 '...estimates suggest that without a rise in zombie credit post 2012, annual inflation in Europe during 2012-2016 would have been 0.45 percentage points higher.' https://www.nber.org/papers/w27158
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pkDo you think Asia ex Japan will come out of all this much better ? They spent less, less unemployment less disease and dysfunction.
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SSThere’s good and bad to the policies David mentions regarding Japan. We’ve kinda been running that experiment for decades here in the America and Europe. It’s gotten us here.
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BKExcellent interview. I especially appreciate the information on the Canadian Economy. Thank you!
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SSFed intervention doesn’t just not benefit lower income people it hurts them. It pushes up housing prices to an unaffordable level and it never lets financial assets drop so perhaps they could buy in. It’s not surprising young people like Socialism.
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KTGreat interviewee, great interviewer. This is why I subscribe to Real Vision.
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CSamazing insights, thank you both
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MCWhen the Central Bank becomes the lender of first and only resort what happens to the banks? The Central Bank is competing with them and will put them out of business. Prof Richard Werner is right. SIBs (banks) will be nationalised and lead to the sovietisation of the banking system and the economy. Gold and crypto are the escape mechanisms. How does the death of the banking system end? Is it a deflationary pop or a slow grind into zombie world because debts wont be forgiven?
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GHNot just aging population in Japan... everyday you wake up, there are 1,000 less Japanese people that the day before, and the negative growth is accelerating...
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PUDavid is the best in our time!
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JBDavid has a unique ability to take a Macro outlook and break it down to a granular level. That's a unique & valuable ability. Thanks, Ed & David.
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BADavid is always one of my favorite. He is clear and straight-forward. I have no doubt that years from now there will a slew of books written on the sweeping changes in economic and social behavior thath will significantly reshape the way consumer and companies operate. These developments are just starting and I have to believe that Neil Howe wakes up excited and maybe slightly concerned every moring. I think watching and understanding how that develops will be the key to investing success over the next decade and beyond.
