What if all that “dry powder” goes into equities or cryptos?

Extraordinarily insightful and informative. Thanks very much.

You guys have so much great insight. Except you both need to understand the difference between Covid cases and Covid asymptomatic cases. Everyone who invests needs to look closer at this. Testing has gone up 800% in Ontario, which is uncovering thousands of new "cases". Except we are not seeing an increase in hospitalizations or deaths. I am tested every four days because I have gone back to work. If we hadn't changed our testing policies we would not be seeing any increase in the disease. Sweden and Canada have the same numbers of hospitalizations and deaths, except Sweden has no "2nd wave" because they aren't doing massive testing. Everyone needs to look closer at this. I actually think that Canada is reacting to this false 2nd wave by shutting down its major cities because if they go back to work too soon, they will see normalized inflation and will need to raise interest rates. If the Canadian dollar rises, it would be the most devastating economic event in Canada's history.

Ginormous deficits as far as the eye can see and we should be buying 30 year strips when yields are at an all time low! Wow! As an old who remembers that mythical beast known as the bond market vigilante, I am in awe of this brave new world.

David Rosenberg is so good. Depth of experience, knowledge, and humility is a rare combination. Well done, Dave. Ed, thank you for the interview, with the right balance of questions and letting the guest speak fully without interrupting. Great job, gents!

They got me thinking about Bonds for price appreciation vs. interest but isn't that the 'least dirty shirt in the laundry bag' strategy? I would rather go in for disruption with #Bitcoin for the juice.

Great discussion and very well conducted interview. Thanks for that.

I've been following Dave for 25+ years going back to his "Breakfast With Dave" reports at Merrill Lynch, and this was one of his best interviews yet. Thanks Dave and Ed. This one goes into My Favorites folder.

Bess David Rosenberg's heart, he doesn't understand that a good percentage of the tea party's motivation to stand up against the government was because they were convinced that the first Black president was going to usher in socialism for poor people(all Black and Brown people in their eyes) despite the cash for clunkers, and $8,000 first time home buyer's checks they were cashing. Now that their Führer is spending the money, they have nothing to say. Sure, some of it is just republican and Faux News double standards and partisan loyalty, but, if you're going to argue that racism doesn't exist or complain that it is mentioned on a financial website, because the word makes you more uncomfortable than a homophobic man seeing two men kiss, save it. Correlation doesn't equal causation, but some things are too coincidental to be a coincidence. This propaganda based, mud slinging, and outright slander, didn't start until the left violented some unspoken rule and championed a Black man for president. My thesis is further evidenced by the fact that they voted in the antithesis of what they claimed to stand for in regards to morals and decency, while slandering a man who actually possessed those character attributes. You won't hear from the Tea party until the democrats' are in the oval again. They tasted blood with Obama, now it doesn't matter as much what the color of the Democrat is, the election of Obama severed the White supremacy bond between parties. Now the Dems are 100% the enemy as far as radical Republicans are concerned.

The sour attitude of someone who's been on the wrong side of the trade. Rosenberg doesn't understand inflation.

Scarce = Bitcoin (BTC). Nothing beats that.

As always, great interview with Rosenburg. What I don’t understand is his tip on buying Canadian Bank stocks, with Canadian housing hitting bubble territory - doesn’t make any sense.

Rosie is always outstanding.

$25B for airports in round 2 of airport relief is Monday boggling. 6 major US airlines spent 97% of cash flow over last 5 years on stock buybacks. They borrowed even more for more buybacks. If they got the aid they workers would nt be working bcs there are no flights for them to work. How ridiculous is the US and the fed and DC swamp? Airliners sell this shares to fund what you need, do not ask the taxpayer for this. Flight cures crying on social nmedia they will loose their income to people who haven't had help in months and are losing homes and in food bank lines do not get it, nor do I. Federal reserve is so damn desperate to save this and themselves at any cost. ,abet participants begging for more debt for more SPY points w/o grasping the consequences or cost of these spy points. I don't understand this market and the logic anymore or the desperation to save stocks

Wow. It’s amazing how instantly you can lose respect for someone. How can you take someone seriously on economics when they so easily pass along non scientific institutional lies? There is exactly zero scientific evidence that everyone wearing cloth masks has any effect whatsoever on infections. None. On the contrary there is evidence it is counter productive and increases infections. Makes you wonder if Rosenberg’s opinion on economics is equally well informed......So much for real vision being the contrarian voice of reason.

Agreed. However, wait for China to attack Taiwan... then, the fireworks will start.

What's the time frame for the change to inflation after disinflation? 3 years? 6? 10?

Great segment. Couple of points: 1. Ed, you said your mother is 90. My mother is 91, but you look a heck of a lot younger than I do. Life is obviously unfair. 2. Mr. Rosenberg, you said we should listen to the scientists. What do you do when the scientists disagree (which they should)? I found a link to a youtube for an epidemiologist named Ivor Cummins who points out that the lockdowns were unnecessary and futile. Here is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UvFhIFzaac

Excellent interview, wondering if the 30 year strips trade can be played with a long TLT ?

I think Rosie needs to be careful here that since we are at a true inflection point, and specifically at the end of both a business and a historical cycle, we could see larger changes that could make USTs riskier than one would normally think. Thanks again, guys.

Great discussion between two heavyweights. Thanks, guys. This confirms my core thesis that we are going to see a risk-off, disinflationary event or series of events in markets, followed by yet more emergency stimulus that will create significant inflationary pressures, especially within the US & Europe. Cheers.

Great interview ... but somehow feel we are left hanging. Massive government deficits / transfers, a much higher permanently unemployed, Covid destroyed industries.... = massive government debts. How is this going to turn out, how will it end,...? and it may take awhile?

Great interview Ed and David. Thank you. Good old school macro. Interesting comment that the US Banks are ok, it's their "customers" (Commercial Real Estate) who are the problem. Good way to put things. Things are pretty desperate if you are trading a 30yr for the price for when the yield drops 0.

Ed et all...sorry for the dumb question....what is a 30year strip? Thanks in advance!

Last 15mins pretty vital

All the US monetary and fiscal response in the second and third quarters was a full Congressional/Presidential Re-election Act. Congress and the Administration just wanted to make sure that people have money until they get re-elected. The depression will start after the election. Republicans and Democrats will fight each other hammer and tong until it is time to campaign for 2022. DLS

Well done interview w/ very actionable ideas

Great interview and discussion, especially relating to bond, yield scarcity and system fragility. The "outside" Canadian perspective is also most welcome for a more well rounded analysis. Always enjoy listening to, and learning from, Mr. Rosenberg.

Great discussion, however, for me it just reinforces the likelihood of a very bad 2021....

Great interview Ed. Never miss an interview with David Rosenberg, one of Canada's greats!

Always enjoy Dave’s views. Sometimes just a small removal from the USA adds some needed perspective

Man I love listening to Rosie! He is so articulate and persuasive, plus everything is back up by data (lots and lots of data). You just don't get better than Dave! And Ed is the perfect person to interview him as Ed lives in the world of credit and data too - just a great combination!!!

Ed Harrison here. I just did a tweet thread on this interview that I'll link here. https://twitter.com/edwardnh/status/1313111834208145408 There are three big issues here that Rosenberg addresses or will address soon: 1. Are we in a depression? 2. How do you do macro policy now? 3. How do you invest now? He talks to questions 1 and 3 in this interview. And once we get through the election season, he's promised to come back and talk to issue 2 from the position of why the likely policy shifts (regardless of how the election plays out) matter for the economy and investing. My biggest takeaway from Dave is that growth and yield are now scarce. And so, that's where you need to be focused.

Great discussion. Thanks Ed and Dave!

just awesome!

Awesome recap on many themes, I liked the finish esp. JCG