I don't understand how the US handled Covid-19 the worst when there's not one country other then China that has done Covid tests more then the US. Countries obviously are going to have much lower numbers if they do not conduct Covid Tests. These countries are obviously measured differently due to size differentiation in population. The united States has handled the situation far better then any other country. It's not even the leading cause of death anymore. That sounds like a major improvement when comparing the recent spikes and deaths in these country that were "handling it well".

The US should be embarrassed that they consider Biden a viable candidate for president

I would enjoy hearing Mr Pelosky's opinion about the Softbank speculative actions, what they mean to his understanding of the price action of August, and if it changes his outlook in any way. thanks.

Some interesting, original and well-developed points on regionalisation, Europe and US outlook. However, I don't share Mr Pelosky optimism on a vaccine. Leaving aside the difficulty and lack of success in developing vaccines for previous corona viruses, even if a vaccine is developed, it is one thing to do so in a laboratory in very small quantities and quite another to produce 7 billion doses at scale (and that's assuming no boosters are given and one jab will suffice). The evidence so far on antibody efficacy seems to point to multiple doses being required. You then have the additional challenges of not only supply chains for production but also distribution (a number of the vaccines being developed currently require storage in minus 50 degrees celsius environment). How do you transport that across the whole of the US, never mind globally and to rural areas? Finally, and I think this point is underestimated, Mr Pelosky's argument assumes populations will be sufficiently confident and trustworthy towards receiving what may be perceived as a rushed through vaccine. We don't have to look far to seeing rising mistrust of 'experts' and consequently low vaccine participation rates (unless govts mandate it which opens a whole other set of issues). In short, 'getting a vaccine' is not a panacea and this basic, one-dimensional thought process masks a series of additional underlying challenges and difficulties.

Investing in China is like investing in Germany.....in 1938.

Interesting view. Thanks.

I like that different perspective, I’ll go take a second look at my charts and will re-do my homeworks. Thanks!

Great guest. Disagree with a lot of what he says but its refreshing to have somebody as straightforward as him. Invite him back in 9 months!

JFK didn't "do much" because he got got (anyone with a brain can connect the dots to what really happened)... not even 3 years as Pres... if your gonna try to change things at that level of power, better have your allies...

Mr. Pelosky has been proven correct on unusual calls before. I agree that China and the East will have a stronger recovery. They isolated COVID areas and got the rest of the country working as quickly as possible. America handled the pandemic poorly from the beginning, but we can print money. There are so many things that can go wrong in Europe. I do not see any chance that the Euro will ever be a reserve currency even though the concept fits into the Tri-Polar world. It will be part of the FX basket of currencies until it is gone. Without a sovereign and with 100% agreement to get something done, I think that Voltaire will be correct again that the Euro will eventually be worth the paper it is printed on. Hopefully, I am wrong and Mr. Pelosky is correct on Europe. DLS

There have been political calls to restrict Chinese ADR's or require that they face the same reporting requirements as other exchange traded companies. Do you see much risk that a flare up here could force US investors out of Chinese ADR's, or at least get them to reduce exposure? This would definitely force some selling of the Chinese tech giants if it happenned.

The US should be embarrassed that they consider Biden a viable candidate for president

All this vaccine crap is a joke ... we are suppose to have a vaccine for the flu... mostly worthless. My bet is something will show up that is a vaccine in name only... it will also be worthless. The drug companies will make billions and nothing will change much. Antiviral treatments will make a difference in mortality and nothing else.

Is the US weaker than Europe in covid really relevant? We have less deaths per capita than most of the major countries (UK, Spain, France, Italy) and the second wave/overwhelming of the ICUs didn't even happen. Rates are now lower in most places where the prior was to reopen at that point but governments are still keeping lockdowns in place. It seems the main differences is covid in America is politicized. Europe on the other hand has the international tourism industry. I think monetary policy had a much bigger effect on currency moves than covid.

Lyndon Johnson .. without a doubt worst President ever.... Just start with the War on Poverty. How about Vietnam and go look at The Department of Housing and Urban Development. How about the cost of healthcare?....(because of Medicare and Medicaid). How about food stamps? and on and on.... one shit program after another and most of it feeds into our current national debt.

Presumably his thesis is bad for gold if we get this rotation out of bonds tech into value em - what do people think or could Ed address tonight?

To the RV content manager - Please run a round table interview with 3 or 4 macro experts (preferably chaired by Raoul) titled "What happens if we get a vaccine before Christmas?". What would be the impacts to: 1.) Risk sentiment & Sector performance 3.) Inflation expectations 4.) USD & FX in general 5.) Government fiscal transfers 6.) Fiscal policy under Trump vs Biden (would a vaccine announcement before Nov influence the election outcome?) 7.) Attitude towards China & Foreign policy implications 8.) Fed policy 9.) Interest rates and the curve 10) Employment & Aggregate demand 11.) Demand for credit and "The Insolvency"

Great insights. Only critique is that US and Europe will always be less focused and able to achieve goals versus China - democracies are less efficient than dictatorships.

Pelosky makes heap of sense as regards marginal portfolio adjustments as economies reopen. Doesn't mean I bail out on precious metals though. As I've lowered cash levels, the money has been going into Intl Developed ex US and an allocation to commodities. Then add some EM to the mix especially if/as USD falls.

Way too political with his investing outlook and ideology. He thinks the U.S. has done worse in managing the virus than Europe. Head in sand along with Biden.

Did this guy just say tech doesn't play a role in the currency markets?

One of the best interviews I watched this year!

Don't necessarily disagree with his thesis. Have been debating on the rotation into recovery stocks. Tech stocks appear greatly overvalued. My issue is the timing. We will get a vaccine. But it will not be a light switch for turning on the economy. One, vaccine may only be 50% effective. Two, only 50% of country may get the vaccine. Three, it will take time to distribute the vaccine and test its effectiveness. So believe this will drag out longer than his thesis suggests. So between today and a rebooted economy/effective vaccine, Raoul's insolvency thesis can play out. Bankruptcies will increase and a large number of small businesses will go under. Unemployment numbers will come down from current levels but will remain historically high. Consumer spending will be dented in the near term versus exploding upward with a vaccine announcement. At this point, the issue is not the virus and a vaccine, but the damage done to the heavily indebted economy. There is a play in recovery stocks, question is when and recognizing it will be into a weak US economy. On China, agree with his point. Semiconductor industry may be hurt long term by in-house development by China. US is stuck between a rock and a hard place on this one. Stop shipments to China in the short term and it may inhibit Chinese companies. But China will ramp up their own development probably stealing US technology and will end up as a competitor to US semi companies who sell a lot of chips today to China.

I must watch the rest of the presentation later. I hope Mr. Pelosky will address the aftershocks of the pandemic in the US in the last half of the video. We cannot get back to normal if the American consumer is so in debt that the economy will continue to suffer from lack of spending. The US economy is based on consumer spending. The government can fill in the gap with non-productive life support using fiscal policies in the short run. Somehow the economy must get back to functioning on its own. Then all levels of government, corporations and private individuals must stand on their own feet again. If not, the pandemic will be one of the major lost battles that defeated us. DLS

Always a pleasure to hear from Mr. Pelosky. Another positive interview. Thanks. Testing tracking and tracing are the first leg of the fight against COVID-19. The second leg is an effective vaccine. The third leg is how well the medical community can treat a COVID-19 patient. In the US like many other countries we failed in our effort to test, track and trace. We even failed in identifying the threat on a federal and state level. We will do a lot better on the vaccine. The patient care is improving all the time. As we find new therapeutics and procedures to help patients recover at home, the sooner we can get started on a new normal. DLS

Comparing LBJ to Biden at this point really makes no sense to me. LBJ was in his late 50’s to early 60’s during his term. Biden would be in his late 70’s to early 80’s by the end of his term and it shows. Wouldn’t count on any “Great Society” style legislation coming out of Biden White House.

Brilliant!

Appreciate his view, not sure I share his optimism, but do agree Emerging Markets and international stocks are likely a good place to go.

excellent interview. Would be good to do a follow up in a couple of months to see how his views evolve. Good work RV team. Very thought provoking.

Clean Energy isn't Clean.

This was vastly better than the last interview. Jay explained his themes, where they came from and what he understood. I found it really interesting and informative. I don't necessarily agree with all he says, but his arguments were clearly put.

Outstanding interview! Love the contrary take on many key issues which Jay explains in a logical way

Yes that makes sense, buy Euro no growth stocks with older populations when the dollar has been devalued. Besides US which region is oil self sufficient? There is a great reason why the US does not want China IPO’s. Fake gold, fake coffee sales, and fake German fin tech global aggregate. Taiwan and South Korea outperformance is tied to US tech. What is a better play, big tech which is based on productivity gains or green deal based on government regulation?

Saying technology cant carry S&P higher after the last decade takes some audacity to say tho..

Excellent Interview. Turkey is just LOL under Erdogan. Ed can you please bring back Keith McCullough and Kevin Muir to see what their current and long terms views are?

Great interview. Jay Pelosky is an excellent source of new ideas (whether you agree or not). Ed - thanks for playing the Devil's Advocate :) It would be great to see Jay back in a couple of months.