No Growth, No Problem

Published on
November 7th, 2019
31 minutes

No Growth, No Problem

Investment Ideas ·
Featuring Darius Dale

Published on: November 7th, 2019 • Duration: 31 minutes

Darius Dale, managing director of Hedgeye Risk Management, revisits Real Vision to detail his macro framework and explain how it shapes his investing outlook. He points to a series of economic indicators as evidence of a protracted growth slowdown and argues that widening credit spreads and a stock market pullback will likely elicit an aggressive policy pivot out of the Fed. Dale presents long term Treasurys and utilities stocks as a prudent hedge against a growth slowdown and recommends making room for TIPS and Gold in case the Fed's ultra-dovishness causes inflationary ripples. You don't want to miss his rigorous analysis. Filmed on October 25, 2019 in New York.



  • JD
    James D.
    5 April 2020 @ 17:19
    A financial conversation that ages well!
  • DP
    David P.
    24 November 2019 @ 20:40
    Really great overview and interview..I like Hedgeye and the quadrant approach is useful - as long as it's not relied upon too dogmatically..
  • PL
    Phil L.
    16 November 2019 @ 23:42
    @Milton I sent you an email regarding the Android app while streaming to Chromecast. It doesn't allow you to switch videos without disconnecting and it seems to lose control of the video once your screen times out.
  • NA
    Niki A.
    7 November 2019 @ 19:11
    What Darius says here sounds smart and logical. However, i was a recent subscriber to Hedgeye and as Boris K. they missed a missed rally in 2019 because they thought the world was going to be in Quad 4. Then they blamed the government shutdown as to why their quantative model misjudged Q1 2019 GDP. Ever since they have been flip flopping on what Quad they are in. I don't think they even know what Quad they are in. The only Macro call they got right was treasuries in November 2018. They also try to take credit for calling a gold rally which I will give them that. And more recent being long housing. (Don't know how they came up with that one). Other than those 3 areas every other call they made would have lost you money. They told people to be short Industrials and Financials in Q1 2019. Wrong. They told people to be short the Semis because the cycle had peaked. I don't see them going down. Wrong. They have been saying for all of 2019 that the earnings recession would have an impact on the markets. We now have 3 consecutive quarters of declining earnings growth on the S&P 500 yet its at all time highs. Wrong. For some reason, every day they talk about how China is having a major slowdown and that people in Asia don't believe in a trade deal otherwise, you would see it there first. Yet, they didn't have a Macro call on China. (Or on Brazil for that matter, missed alpha there) They also talk about implied volatility as if it has some sort of predictive power and then make fun of people who use the 50-day moving average. On top of that, they have a lot of analysts calls that have missed and not generated any sort of alpha. And they pride themselves on giving you an inside look at how a hedge fund works, but all I see is short term day trading and swing trading. They don't actually make any Macro calls that last 1-3 years. I haven't seen one call. Its all about what Quad you are in, but they never seem to get the Quad right whatsoever. And yes, I am no longer a subscriber as of two days ago.
    • MC
      Mike C.
      7 November 2019 @ 19:30
      You missed a Real Time Alert sell signal on SLV today, moments before it tanked. Nobody wins them all, but that was impressive.
    • RR
      Randall R.
      7 November 2019 @ 19:42
      Real Time Alert on Dec. 24th, 2018 to cover all shorts!
    • SW
      Steven W.
      7 November 2019 @ 20:14
      To expect 100% accuracy from any model not just in direction but time is foolish in my opinion. Of course the model changes as new data points come in daily/monthly/quarterly, IF it didn't I'd be seriously nervous. It's all about data driven probability and continuous back testing. I use the service as a regime identification tool in my top down stock selection process.
    • PP
      Peter P.
      7 November 2019 @ 21:57
      Exactly their is nothing macro about what they do. They flip flop around day trading at times like a rabid dog.
    • CY
      CHIHLUN Y.
      16 November 2019 @ 03:26
      Hi Greg, Hedgeye has never denied about their flip flopping. Regardless of you views on their process (which I fully respect), kindly take a look at Hedgeye's recommendation history:
  • PP
    Peter P.
    7 November 2019 @ 20:23
    These guys are wrong a lot more than they are right. Their leader brags about every correct call and ignores the avalanche of bad calls. The real time alerts product is mediocre at best. They easily underperform a simple index fund over the long term.
    • BM
      Brenton M.
      7 November 2019 @ 21:28
      Anything even slightly bearish has Greg T coming out of the woodwork on the character assassination warpath #InsecurePermaBull
    • PP
      Peter P.
      7 November 2019 @ 21:40
      Brenton I’m just stating the facts. Their record is mediocre. Instead of attacking me grow up and debate the facts.
    • BM
      Brenton M.
      7 November 2019 @ 21:49
      They're not facts. A fact is you attacking anyone that has a bearish thesis. Stick to passive investing. If you feel the need to drop by, then try leaving the hate at the door.
    • PP
      Peter P.
      7 November 2019 @ 21:54
      You must be one of their paid twitter cronies. I don’t index but I know mediocre when I see it. I just said the vast majority would do better indexing than listening to these guys. You sound like you missed the bull market, like them, and are now anchored and reduced to simply rooting for a crash that never comes - and ironically if it did you would still be to afraid to buy.
    • BM
      Brenton M.
      7 November 2019 @ 22:06
      Uh huh, so now I'm a paid shill? A small sample of your content from last couple of weeks; note the common theme that anyone that has a bearish thesis is to be ridiculed and marginalized by Greg T because it threatens his passive investment strategy: "Agree. The doom loop guy running this seems to mostly just be pushing his theories and ideas here, or others who share those opinions. This despite them being wrong for nearly a decade. Sure someday they will be correct, but missing an entire massive bull market in stocks has been extremely costly to them and their followers." "What is his performance record? This should on the page of every interview. I bet not good." "A landslide victory on a recession? WOW, I am sorry you have been either over thinking WAY TO MUCH or smoking some really good stuff. At least Julian still has all his marbles and made sense. I think you guys are going to surprised by the economic strength in China, even without a trade deal. They have pulled a bunch of levers and they will be kicking in soon, if not already. You guys really need to keep your politics out of investing. We really don't want to hear it. Also, every single Democrat is polling they would beat Trump - so you just burying your head in the sand won't change the facts that most Americans don't like Trump. We are not going to zero rates guys. This explains why banks are rallying again. The long end of the yield curve is rising, not falling. You got this entire thing backward. You will very likely get slaughtered. Julian might have a bit of a clue, but Raoul is lost. The doom loop. I guess you have to come up with something so retarded to scare people and try to sell newsletters. LOL"
    • PP
      Peter P.
      7 November 2019 @ 22:25
      So your point is that everything I said is correct? In the last month the S&P 500 is up over 5% to all time high, and China up nearly 10%. Thanks for reminding me how good a call I made. Hedgeye, not so much.
    • BM
      Brenton M.
      7 November 2019 @ 22:40
      Cool story. If anything you said was true, you wouldn't feel the need to be constantly sniping people from the anonymity of an internet comment section.
    • PP
      Peter P.
      7 November 2019 @ 22:54
      It was all true. Right there in black and white. Not sniping anyone just pointing out all the fakes and frauds in the world. Those who can’t perform, sell.
    • RM
      Robert M.
      8 November 2019 @ 00:47
      Really guys. Most of us don't come to RV for this kind of exchange.
    • CY
      CHIHLUN Y.
      16 November 2019 @ 03:23
      Hi Greg, Hedgeye's every call is summarised here:
  • PP
    Peter P.
    8 November 2019 @ 00:13
    Here is Darius 5 years ago saying the exact same thing they say at Hedgeye today! At the end of this video he recommends Utilities, Real Estate, and Long Bonds. Same thing they recommend today! It all underperformed the S&P. It underperformed quality growth stocks VERY badly.
    • PP
      Peter P.
      8 November 2019 @ 00:13
      Oops forgot the link.
    • PP
      Peter P.
      8 November 2019 @ 00:25
      4 years ago. He was loving some treasures again. God, I love the internet and finding historical video.
    • PP
      Peter P.
      8 November 2019 @ 00:31
      5 years ago their leader telling you to “strap it on and short some stocks”. I bet that didn’t work out so well.
    • PP
      Peter P.
      8 November 2019 @ 00:32
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      8 November 2019 @ 01:37
      Greg, this is all a bit unnecessary... If you can't be constructive, debate ideas etc. please don't comment.
    • PP
      Peter P.
      8 November 2019 @ 03:05
      Lol Raoul. Seriously I could see why you would not want track records exposed. No problem I canceled.
    • DH
      Dabangg H.
      8 November 2019 @ 06:38
      I dont see a problem in bringing up someones past track record. The reputation of the speaker should precede himself. In fact, you should have questioned what makes him believe 2019 is different than 2014, and why should we trust his advise now.
    • DB
      David B.
      8 November 2019 @ 15:45
      The problem with bringing up someone's "track record" is that it can be taken out of context. In the case of Hedgeye, they known to shift positions quickly as the data and trends change. Views change and a link to a statement or video is just a snapshot in time. Oh, and not all of us can be right 100% of the time unless you are Bernie Madoff.
    • EK
      Emil K.
      8 November 2019 @ 19:11
      David B. has it 100% correct. Hedgeye doesn't say buy X and hold for five years. They are fantastic inflection detectives. In the five years they said buy, sell and now they are saying buy again because the world hasn't stood still for five years.
    • CY
      CHIHLUN Y.
      16 November 2019 @ 03:19
      Hello Greg, Hedgeye has every realtime long and short trade they recommended with timestamp and performance, they success and fails for all to see:
  • SG
    Sven G.
    13 November 2019 @ 15:42
    super interesting stuff! thanks!
  • ST
    Simon T.
    7 November 2019 @ 09:34
    Can’t stand Ed Harrison with his terrible exaggerating accent
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      7 November 2019 @ 10:02
      Simon, my accent is natural. That’s how I have always spoken. Sorry you have a problem with it.
    • PU
      Peter U.
      7 November 2019 @ 10:34
      Simon, you should keep those personal preference comments to yourself. Those comments do not move the thought process or conversation forward. Thank you.
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      7 November 2019 @ 11:47
      Simon, we don't personally insult people on Real Vision. You can do that on Youtube but not here. Here we debate the content.
    • AB
      Aaron B.
      7 November 2019 @ 11:58
      Simon....don't be an a__hole.
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      7 November 2019 @ 13:48
      Ed’s done some of the most insightful interviews in RV history and it’s the first thing I think about. I’m not a finance bug and I still understand these interviews. If anything, the diverse English accents out there should be amusing us not enraging us.
    • SS
      S S.
      7 November 2019 @ 19:03
      Those who personally insult people on RVTV should be banned from the platform. @RVTV, make an example out of Simon T and just terminate his subscription.
    • BC
      Brent C.
      7 November 2019 @ 19:47
      this is one of the most outrageously rude comments i've seen here. what's even the point of making such a comment in an idea/comment section of a financial publication.
    • JB
      John B.
      7 November 2019 @ 20:49
      Wow what a jerk. I dunno what is up with RV today, people saying things about Ed that are totally out of line. Keep doing what you're doing Ed! Your one of the best in the business. I say that as someone who would rather listen to a speech than an interview; IMO most interviewers are clearly in over their head talking with industry professionals. On the other hand you have Ed Harrison. Someone who shows up every week, clearly knowing the person and the firm they represent and combined with his extensive knowledge of the world and economics; it's more like listening to a private staff conversation than a public interview. If your having trouble understanding him I would suggest that Ed's very normal American accent isn't the problem. It's that you aren't smart or educated enough to keep up with a world class intellect. The man is a former diplomat, who speaks/reads in 11? languages and has worked around the globe. He's more accomplished than anyone in this comment section with an aqua background for their initials.
    • VB
      Vishrut B.
      7 November 2019 @ 21:34
      Hey Milton/Raoul/Ed - can we have some sort of a flagging mechanism where a user with such an overwhelming number of dislikes, making such hateful statements, get "kicked out" off the community. These kind of comments really goes against what this platform stands for.
    • MS
      Marc S.
      7 November 2019 @ 22:23
      Ed is up there with some of the best interviewers. He is always well prepared, unassuming, gentlemanly and has class. Also, he has a cultivated voice that is agreeable to listen to. Anyone making such a rude and utterly baseless comment comes across as ignorant, boorish and envious.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      7 November 2019 @ 22:54
      I love Ed. He knows his stuff, thoroughly preps,... Ed being different - ascent, black, style,... is a plus.
    • SM
      Sam M.
      10 November 2019 @ 09:34
      I don't understand the hate of this comment as I can understand why someone might not like the accent and find it hard to listen to (I am not on radio/tv and wouldn't put myself forward) but I would vote anyone calling for a ban should themselves be banned. This is a professional service and I am a day 1 subscriber - go and populate twitter with your cancel culture.
    • MK
      Munira K.
      12 November 2019 @ 17:48
      Uncalled for, narrowminded comment. You owe Ed an apology.
    • JL
      John L.
      13 November 2019 @ 01:18
      I think Ed is one of the better interviewers
  • JR
    Jon R.
    12 November 2019 @ 19:57
    Wow. Lots of anger out there. I'm a Hedgeye sub so I'm quite familiar with their platform. Very smart guys, hard working, very thorough, and they do look at portfolio allocation very differently than most in the industry. Like many macro teams their strategy is very successful at keeping you out of a poorly performing asset, but they'll frequently keep you out or very underweight good mkts as well (they've been low to moderate equity exposure (quad 3 and 4) all of 2019). Great call on bonds and utes tho . No model or process always puts you in the right place. My biggest issue w them is the fervor in which they attack everyone else in the industry. BTW I thought Ed did a great job of summarizing Darius' thoughts and leading him toward actionable recommendations.
  • JB
    Jose B.
    12 November 2019 @ 11:13
    great tour de force. congrats Darius
  • DD
    Dylan D.
    8 November 2019 @ 15:12
    I rarely comment on stuff, perhaps this is my first comment. Let’s start with hedge eye or whatever they call themselves, the four quads are really just a rehash of Charles Gave’s four quadrants a concept he came up with in the 1970s. Everyone else just names them differently or just copies the same concept shamelessly. The four quads are really dependent on two variables Growth and Inflation and consequently you can have an inflationary boom, deflationary boom, and inflationary bust and a deflationary bust. Currently the market is suggesting we are in a deflationary boom and possibly overweight early and hyper cyclical industries. I personally believe just like the great Stan Druckenmiller states that the inside of the market gives you a clue and so personally I will personally use the mind of the market to make decisions not the many talking heads either here or elsewhere however, every now and then Real Vision does come up with some fantastic guests and I personally use them as my investment committee or as Napoleon Hill would call it Master Mind. Dale while an impressive speaker isn’t high on my list currently.
    • PP
      Peter P.
      10 November 2019 @ 12:27
      I read anything that Charles Gave writes, same with James Grant (Buy all Gavekal & Grant books) and they both believe our fiat world ends with an Austrian ending, but in that waiting for hard money to reassert itself over “money of the mind” vein, you would have made more money in the past 20 years following Albert Edwards - at least long term yields have gone to zero....The Hedgeye guys go out into the sea every morning telling you what bait they are using that day and where they are going to fish, and come back at sunset, and Repeat it again the next day, never saying they can forecast out a year at all.
    • JL
      Julian L.
      11 November 2019 @ 03:00
      Dylan D, would you please contact me via email:
  • TC
    Trevor C.
    11 November 2019 @ 01:36
    I'll second a lot of what was said below. Excellent interview Darius crushed it.
  • DP
    Daniel P.
    10 November 2019 @ 21:02
    This comment section is definitely in Quad 3
  • VK
    Viresh K.
    10 November 2019 @ 15:11
    This interview was excellent.
  • BH
    Bin H.
    8 November 2019 @ 23:59
    Based on your theory, the cycle goes Q1->Q2->Q3->Q4->Q1. Then you talked about Q4->Q2 or Q4->Q3, how to clarify those transitions without going through Q1? Do you mean mini cycles or what's your logic? Totally lost
    • SW
      Sascha W.
      10 November 2019 @ 14:18
      He is talking about the business cycle. There is no order of quadrants and how they have to occur.. Their process is data depended and every quarter is different due to inflation and GDP changing.
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    10 November 2019 @ 13:25
    I don’t understand the anger in the comments section of this video. The man has a view and a process, all you have to do is watch and compare it to your view/process and see if there is any value or nuggets you can pick up. If there is no value you move on or you use the thumbs down button. Having said that, I do believe there is strong demand for accountability within this community. This issue will continue to pop up, not only for guests but also for RV itself and its editorial view of the markets.
  • BY
    Bowie Y.
    8 November 2019 @ 15:49
    This is the most convincing argument for future inflation I've ever heard these year.
    • PP
      Peter P.
      10 November 2019 @ 12:17
      2 different things - do not conflate A) the quarters of the year which follow the arrow of time Q1 ->Q2->Q3->Q4 ; B) the sector quadrants laid out early in the video: the debate they have here. Is the move moving to Quad 2 (Growth Accelerating w/ Inflation Accelerating = Hawkish Monetary PolicY) or Quad 3 (Growth Decelerating w/ Inflation Accelerating) = Neutral Monetary Policy = Stagflation/Stagnation Hedgeye lay out their process & views based on what sector exposures should work in both Quad 2 & Quad 3 like energy (which is a consensus underweight) but Financials should work better in a Quad 2 than in a Quad 3. Agree not necessarily easy to follow, but they are having an open debate, and in a differentiated manner. For anyone pointing out what was said here or there by them in the past, Hedgeye put their calls out every morning with risk ranges for every sector - very transparent on 20 - 30 items If they are bullish SPX it does not mean short at the top of their daily range, but would mean lighten up, and buy them back lower. The ranges for each sector call will reset up & down with each days moves, dynamic, and as they note - you can now trade the ETFs for free. I have no ties to Hedgeye, do not know anyone there, but am doing a free monthly trial (no credit card needed.). If you ask what brought me to them, it was the RV interview with Keith McCullogh where he discusses their realtime GDP nowcast for GDP in Q1 2019 (I think) and I noted that when GDP printed the Hedgeye forecast was not what printed, However two quarters later, the GDP was being revised to where Hedgeye had it all along. so as for the haters & lovers in the RV commentary: “Nullius in Verba”, but I recommend the free trial, and decide if it can help your process. Great job Dale & Ed ! Thank You both
    • PP
      Peter P.
      10 November 2019 @ 12:18
      Sorry my reply was for Bin H....some how posted down here
  • TH
    Timo H.
    9 November 2019 @ 06:45
    The Hedgeye guys keep on impressing me. They have a rigorous process, that makes sense to an average guy like me. (Whether it is the best possible process, is of course debatable.) They spend a lot of effort educating their customers about the process and how they think the economic machine works. They make calls whose performance is verifiable. They provide sound risk management guidelines to ensure, that their customer survive to trade another day. In general, they try to take the voodoo out of investing. That's admirable, regardless of the absolute performance of their model. You can make even more than 50% of your calls wrong, if the right ones are real money makers and you have proper risk management practices in place. In this business, only the fraudsters are 100% right.
  • MS
    Matt S.
    7 November 2019 @ 15:47
    What's with this new "auto-play" thing on RV? It's annoying enough on YT, it's doubly annoying on RVTV.
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      7 November 2019 @ 16:27
      We are working on a disable button on the user end 👍
    • JL
      J L.
      8 November 2019 @ 18:25
      combined with the ads at the end this new feature is a real beauty
  • CB
    Clint B.
    8 November 2019 @ 17:28
    Kudos to the RV team for moderating and trying to keep the comments constructive.
  • RM
    R M.
    8 November 2019 @ 16:55
    Ed asks excellent questions and is always well prepared for the interview. Hedgeye tracks the major economies of the world, and for a reasonable fee, offers the retail investor interested in cross asset allocations (FX, Stocks, Commodities, Bonds) both valuable history and well thought through projections. Of course they are not always going to be correct. Who is? The world is largely an uncompressible algorithm, and anyone offering models will always fall short. I appreciate the long format interviews on RV, that way we all get to learn how thinkers think.
  • EK
    Edward K.
    8 November 2019 @ 16:11
    Have been following Hedgeye for years. They are public and open about their process and probably the most useful. You can sense Darius's mind racing as he talks really quickly so happy for the closed captioning.
  • BK
    Boris K.
    7 November 2019 @ 14:40
    Ed needs to get some nicer sneakers
    • VK
      Viresh K.
      7 November 2019 @ 15:07
      The market doesn’t care about your sneakers
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      7 November 2019 @ 15:45
      Hey Boris. I know this is way off topic for investing. But you aren't the only one who's commented on my shoes! The reason I only wear running shoes is that about five years ago I was diagnosed with Hallux Rigidus a.k.a. big toe joint arthritis. And I was told that if I want to avoid further joint deterioration and surgery, I simply have to avoid shoes that put a strain on that joint. I am sticking to Altra and Hoka One One. Those are my brands! One day you too could be in my shoes (literally). Anyone that's interested, here's the link on what to buy if you have this problem Cheers, Ed
    • BK
      Boris K.
      7 November 2019 @ 16:50
      got it... Ed, just trying to be lighthearted..did not know you have a valid reason
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      7 November 2019 @ 18:49
      No worries, Boris. A LOT of people talk about my footwear in these vids. The only one I didn't where Altras or Hokas in was in Germany. Cheers, Ed
    • fc
      flavio c.
      8 November 2019 @ 14:10
      Ed , always nice and polite, I like that!
  • RS
    Ryan S.
    7 November 2019 @ 06:47
    Very insightful video. Darius was wrong about the markets reaction to the “hawkish cut” but regardless, he’s still pretty spot on in his macro view.
    • AP
      A P.
      7 November 2019 @ 13:25
      And in calling for an "earnings recession" in q3. Great process regardless.
    • CH
      Clifford H.
      8 November 2019 @ 01:16
      Earnings are negative y/y in Q3...
    • AP
      A P.
      8 November 2019 @ 13:47
      Consensus expected -4%, they made great arguments why it should be "MUCH LOWER THAN THAT". 446 reported out of 499 so far, and we are landing at -1%. So, earnings are negative, but the bazooka marketed did not happen. Also, earnings have been diverging from profits for so long now, we'll see when they finally catch down...
  • ns
    niall s.
    8 November 2019 @ 10:13
    Gentlemen Please !!! Orderrr
  • UH
    Urban H.
    8 November 2019 @ 10:03
    The pictures in the transcript is difficult to read due to low resolution. It would be great if they could be improved a bit. Thanks!
  • IT
    Ivan T.
    8 November 2019 @ 10:00
    I think we're about to enter Quad5
  • CL
    Chris L.
    8 November 2019 @ 09:22
    hows that duration going
  • M.
    Milton .. | Founder
    8 November 2019 @ 07:58
    Hey everyone - To address some of the comments on the platform. First off, Real Vision is meant to raise questions in our users - but we’re mainly a soapbox for other incredibly smart people to feature their insight, rather than an advisory service for specific questions. Most of the community knows this already so please don't just follow blindly what X and Y say. Filter, process and use your awareness and understanding of the financial markets to make the best possible decisions. When it comes to comments there's always a very fine line. For me, that line is crossed when you call the guest different names, insult them in a subtle way or criticize details that are out their control like how they look or speak. Why are some ironic comments staying on? Well because Ed, Raoul or me responded to that comment so it's a reminder for everyone on how to behave. We're mature, I'm sure most of us have a family and make good money, we've all been through stormy periods in our life, let's act like decent human beings and the best form of ourselves. Friendly banter and sarcasm are okay, debates are encouraged, constructive criticism is valued just as much as positive feedback. Thanks!
  • LC
    Liliana C.
    8 November 2019 @ 05:14
    Wow! We must be entering that 4th turning or something! Vicious unfiltered comments abound. Yikes! Makes me more determined to make thoughtful comments and take the high road when needed.
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    7 November 2019 @ 20:33
    Mad props to Darius. Always thoughtful and rigorous.
  • TC
    Thomas C.
    7 November 2019 @ 20:13
    Good interview Ed.
  • BK
    Boris K.
    7 November 2019 @ 16:46
    these guys have been market neutral since mid 2018, at this point they missed out on a massive rally... they have been bearish software forever, how has that worked out
    • MK
      Michael K.
      7 November 2019 @ 17:47
      They said to buy TLT last September and held for a year. How does SPX compare over same holding period?
    • JW
      Joel W.
      7 November 2019 @ 20:02
      Boris, Hedgeye have not been bearish software forever. This is easy enough to fact check, so please try a little before commenting.
  • RM
    Robert M.
    7 November 2019 @ 17:20
    Always enjoy the Hedgeye guys, but have to admit I am challenged by their quad system. I understand the definition behind each quad, but find it hard to make investment decisions based on whether the market is between Quad 2 and 3 or is the market positioning between Quad 3 or 4. Or the market wants to set up for quad 2. I am sure this works for some, but I am not smart enough to track between the quads though believe the macro picture behind each quad is important.
    • HS
      Henry S.
      7 November 2019 @ 19:24
      Look for sectors and themes that work in both Quads. Energy and commodities work in Quad 2 & 3 so if the data is moving between those two consider a starter position that you can build into, or just wait for the confirmation. It's better to be a little late and right than early and wrong. Don't sell all your Quad 4 exposures either incase the Quad 4 conditions continue. Just take some profits. Even if you don't redeploy that cash having some extra money in your portfolio is never a bad thing especially if your account is in USD.
  • SL
    Scott L.
    7 November 2019 @ 18:45
  • JL
    James L.
    7 November 2019 @ 18:14
    I am onboard with the Stagflation and own gold call, although today is tough for gold not energy! Rate of change corporate earnings do not support the markets recent euphoria. Good interview Ed!
  • TB
    Thomas B.
    7 November 2019 @ 17:53
    Another great one. I always love to see the Hedgeye guys on here.
  • AH
    Andreas H.
    7 November 2019 @ 17:35
    Best Macro Analysts out there!!! Highly recommended!
  • BK
    Bob K.
    7 November 2019 @ 17:22
    Well done as always Ed. Great interview.
  • DV
    Dimitri V.
    7 November 2019 @ 16:28
    I appreciate Darius using concomitantly in conversation. Great interview, sharp guy
  • YB
    Yuriy B.
    7 November 2019 @ 15:33
    This conversation is somehow better than the sum of its impressive two conversants (and I say that as someone who has huge respect for Darius and Ed) . As a retail investor, I have found that my subscriptions to RealVision and Hedgeye are the only two things worth paying up for in the financial services space.
  • TE
    Tito E.
    7 November 2019 @ 14:50
    Allocation table at 02:30ish is vey useful
  • cp
    carl p.
    7 November 2019 @ 13:42
    Love Darius Dale
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    7 November 2019 @ 06:22
    I love DD and Hedgeye!!! The best!!! Awesome interview. Thanks Ed! I used to struggle to follow DD’s lightning fast flow, but I’m happy to say that’s no longer the case. He and Keith and the Hedgeye team have taught me a lot. They’re brilliant.
    • Av
      Arthur v.
      7 November 2019 @ 12:43
      I like the GIP model with the 4 Quadrants and investments choices that come with each. I will probably subscribe to Hedgeye.
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    7 November 2019 @ 12:21
    Top notch video and so insightful to get Darius' views. I also really appreciated Ed helping to summarise and reiterate some of the key points made by Darius especially with respect to the macro implications of the quadrant models. Will probably be watching this several times to ensure I have not missed anything.
  • XP
    Xavier P.
    7 November 2019 @ 09:05
    As a hedgeye subscriber I watch Darius and co do this every day and have huge respect for the work ethic. This guy is an inspiration to me!
    • CB
      Clifford B.
      7 November 2019 @ 11:01
  • PU
    Peter U.
    7 November 2019 @ 10:59
    Excellent interview! Wish we had the transcript available as well.
  • TM
    Thomas M.
    7 November 2019 @ 10:57
    Great Interview with Darius and you did a GREAT job Ed. I would love to see more of Darius on Real Vision as he is very clear on his views and very well thought out with the data he looks at. I believe it would be great to see him interview other guest on Real Vision. Again, Great job and interview to both Darius and Ed!
  • WM
    William M.
    7 November 2019 @ 06:47
    Outstanding! I hope Darius will be a regular on RV....
    • MK
      Michael K.
      7 November 2019 @ 10:23
      He can be for you, all you have to do is subscribe. Early look and the macro show are your daily source.