Sam Burns: Are Central Banks Out of Bullets?

Published on
January 7th, 2021
Duration
57 minutes


Sam Burns: Are Central Banks Out of Bullets?

Investment Ideas ·
Featuring Sam Burns and Ed Harrison

Published on: January 7th, 2021 • Duration: 57 minutes

Sam Burns, chief strategist at Mill Street Research, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss debt monetization, bank lending, and the waning influence of monetary stimulus. Burns examines structural problems within U.S. banks such as declining net interest margins and the increase in securities rather than loans on the bank portfolios. He then looks at strenuous efforts by central banks to stimulate growth, lending, and even inflation, and he predicts that these efforts are "pushing on a string" and will have diminishing returns, thereby pushing the onerous of stimulative action onto fiscal authorities. He and Harrison explore issues such as deficit spending, potential tax hikes on high-earners, and how Burns’ macro views impacts his outlook for factors in assets such as growth, value, momentum, beta, size, and quality. Filmed on January 5, 2021. Key learnings: Monetary stimulus by central banks and the Federal Reserve has, to an extent, run its course, and the fate of the economy and markets is now in the hands of fiscal authorities such as the U.S. Congress. Concerns about inflation are overstated, and commercial real estate and utilities remain under risk. Emerging markets have capacities to do well but are highly subject to decision of policymakers.

Comments

Transcript

  • PP
    Patrick P.
    8 January 2021 @ 03:33
    Economic Roach Motel ... you can check in..... But you can never check out. Thank You! Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen
    • MB
      Matthias B.
      12 January 2021 @ 08:37
      ...and J Powell
  • WM
    William M.
    7 January 2021 @ 20:51
    Only true MMT will get the US & global economies out of a recessionary rut. It's hard to see how we get that politically until stocks drop enough to create a greater sense of urgency. Combine that with the ongoing circus in the US and big tensions with China and it should be a very bumpy ride the next few months.
    • LS
      Lemony S.
      7 January 2021 @ 21:46
      Ha, Bernie Bros like you just make my BTC holdings more and more cherished.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      8 January 2021 @ 03:36
      William ... open mouth insert foot.... you need to read up on MMT... and the bumpy ride is a little longer than a few months.
    • DS
      David S.
      8 January 2021 @ 08:22
      MMT is how we get through the pandemic. The Fed protected the well off. MMT will protect our citizens without assets. It is dangerous, but necessary to get families through. After that we need to pick up the pieces. This is not a recession it is a poorly handled pandemic. Let them eat cake will not work here either. DLS
    • TV
      Tyrell V.
      10 January 2021 @ 23:18
      When you give everyone a cheque for $2000, what you have actually done is just take $2000 away from everyone...
  • GH
    Glen H.
    8 January 2021 @ 17:40
    Why would utilities be under pressure? People can’t pay their bills?
    • AT
      Alun T.
      10 January 2021 @ 13:23
      No, like REITs, Utes are bond proxies. Rates are on the increase now as we are currently risk-on with increasing inflation expectations. When rates fall you'll see utilities do better.
  • AD
    Antonio D.
    10 January 2021 @ 12:18
    Looks like we have ourselves a Keynesian.
  • IS
    Ilya S.
    9 January 2021 @ 06:28
    Guys please, go to the studio to film videos.
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    8 January 2021 @ 04:04
    Inflation .. NET NET ?? Let's call that what it is ...stagflation !