Comments
Transcript
-
ARNow that's an amazing conversation!
-
SBConsidering when this was recorded, it is extremely prescient.
-
SCInvestment ideas needs a wrap up at the end of the video, like Trade ideas. That would help. This interview was great from start to end, yet the delivary was subpar. A simple summary at the end would help things greatly.
-
VSWhat was the reason he stressed owning farmland so heavily? For SHTF scenario? Anybody wanna speculate?
-
SGThis guy skips around on topics faster than a back alley preacher. Quite the salesman.
-
ETGreat interview! and two questions: First, how does a debt jubilee work if one person's liability is another's asset? All of these trillions in loans are held as investments by individuals, pensions, investment funds etc. I don't see how they can simply be cancelled without seriously damaging the net worth of many. Second, on issues like student loan forgiveness, isn't there an issue of fairness there that if ignored could set off some serious unrest? It would essentially be a public gift of sometimes tens of thousands of dollars to the people who took out the largest college loans, even if they used it to fund spring break in Florida. What about the person who went to in-state school to keep costs down, or the one who worked all through college or traded four years of their life to the armed services as I did to fund college? What about the person who chose not to go to college but has other forms of debt? Why is one group more deserving of public funds than another? Fed policies have already created the largest wealth disparity in U.S. history, and now we consider giving this massive gift to a certain class of people, as opposed to all others. I don't get it.
-
AAI’m shocked he actually trusts the “official” inflation readings. Has he stepped foot in a grocery store any time in the last 5yrs....there is plenty of inflation in the real world, and that is happening with depressed oil prices. Just wait until oil goes back to $100. Otherwise, great interview.
-
AvDavid's view is not unlike the guys at hedgeye which see the US economy hitting Quad 4 which is growth slowing and inflation slowing. This will happen in Q2 this year. Long bonds and Bullion is not a wrong choice.
-
AHLast Interview I did not agree, and there was a lot of recency bias in my view. Now I agree! Good time to hedge your stock portfolio with TLT!
-
JLFantastic. This is what "television" was meant to be. This one interview is worth the annual subscription price for RV. Ed H. did a great job allowing the interviewee to sketch out very complex ideas at length. Also he seems a bit more at-ease here than in some earlier pieces he's done. Keep up the great work.
-
DBI would love to see an interview with Richard Werner author of Princes of Yen.
-
DB32 minutes in WHAT A GREAT INTERVIEW. Ed Harrison is a fantastic interviewer btw, thoroughly impressed with him.
-
NRCurious. USD bull, ED bull, UST bull, Gold bull. A question: Does silver rise with gold and close the ratio?
-
CBWhy has Grant Williams gone dark? I miss him and his perspectives
-
czHow exactly does one invest into "long bonds"? Is there a specific ticker I can look at?
-
DLDebt Jubilee with a perpetual coin. If you follow that through, Fed sells bonds back to govt for (say) $1 Trillion coin, govt cancels $1 Trillion debt. Sounds easy but what is on the other side of the Fed's balance sheet? Bank reserves. What happens when velocity picks up? How does the Fed remove the excess reserves? To do it now it could sell bonds. No-one is going to buy a perpetual zero coupon coin. What about raising required reserve requirement? That's just a lot of tied up capital that can't be used for anything. What is the impact of that?
-
RPI thought he was on the money until I heard his outlook on Gold. He doesn't understand it's role. Gold is not a currency, it is an asset. It falls when the dollar rises. It will only act as a haven in complete contagion.
-
RMTour-de-force!
-
JMA debt jubilee for student debt, while helpful in the short term, does nothing to disrupt a public-owned, tradition bound, high-cost structure educational system. We need creative destruction.
-
GEOne question that comes to mind: how is the sequence they layout in this conversation wrong?
-
FGThe start was slow but it turned out to be a very interesting interview. There is something that took my attention: "The debt monetization, if it is done right, and it restores the growth of money velocity, we will get the inflation". D.R. Hasn't Japan tried everything already? What hasn't been tried yet there? And isn't there a risk that by trying even more crazy things, you end up with the defenestration of the USD as the reserve currency and as a consequence impairing the US capability to push its geopolitical and economic weight around the world?
-
cz"It's going to be trillions of dollars of perpetual coin that the Treasury puts on the Fed's balance sheet. We have to go through ... the debt jubilee." He then goes on to explain that we will not allow it to default. We also cannot inflate it away. So how exactly will this play out? Any investment ideas to make money off it?
-
JBMy question: Why should I assume that an overpriced stock will automatically fall because of some black / grey swan event if the Fed continues QE? Context: 27:26 minutes - If, for the sake of argument, inflation is only really occurring in equity market, so long as the fed keeps up with QE, will the face value of these stock prices just go to infinity? If we see countries like Zimbabwe who are subject to hyperinflation, where people trade literally sackfuls of cash just for the essentials, does this become the new normal? With Cash, people opt for a different currency once they recognize the intrinsic value of the currency - when the face value of the currency being denominated in the 100000 and 1000000's is still accepted as that. There is no sudden day of reckoning whereas if by magic the number of zeros magically disappear. Also I found this useful: https://thismatter.com/money/banking/money-growth-money-velocity-inflation.htm
-
czWhat are some of the defensive equities that he mentions at the end?
-
wjIf you follow suger and believe this is an inflation indicator. It has already started. I think he is correct in most that is stated. I don't agree that any debt will be forgiven. It has never worked that way. Its is a way of controlling the public.
-
PCExcellent interview. Rosie has such depth of knowledge resulting in great insights. I also really like Ed as the interviewer (who is none-egotistic and keeps his mouth shut except to add clarity, move the interview along,... the opposite of those irritating CNBC, Bloomberg,... male interviewers like Joe Kernan who can't stop talking)
-
JHStarted off slow but really picked up steam. Fantastic stuff as usual from Rosie - great to get his perspective, especially now that he is independent and has the luxury of being totally forthright with his views. Awesome stuff. Well done, Ed, as usual - great interviewing and thanks for orienting the conversation so adroitly. Vintage RV quality - this is why I’m a subscriber.
-
WMVery good indeed. He makes a good argument for an inflationary pulse. I am banking on gold (and silver) personally plus precious metals stocks as my lifeboat. I am also thinking a commodity boom will follow. I do not disagree on the short term for bonds if the FED push rates down to try to keep things afloat but its just so hard to believe all this liquidity will not eventually lead to inflation. Finally, everyone seems to think oil is done......having worked in the business for 40 years it feels like rumors of the death of oil are greatly overdone. Things may well be different in 20 years for sure, but we are still in a hydrocarbon driven world and the cost to get that oil has soared in recent years and there has been limited development plans actioned to replace the dwindling reserves. I think we will have $100 oil before anyone really understands where we stand on inelastic energy supply.
-
BDFabulous discussion from Rosie, SO HAPPY he is now independent , so he can give us his unadulterated viewpoints, away from the banksters that hire Economists, and pay them what to say! If you watched this, and think it’s boring or doesn’t have actionable items, you are asleep! WAKE UP people, he just handed you the 5 year plan to invest, that’s all.... I am presently living the nightmare of clients firing you for being hedged, protected, creating income to live on and making only 15% in 2019.....I have lost more clients in the past year, than in any of my 30 years of business due to underperforming the dumb money fools that only buy the S&P 500 index because it’s free and think they have NO risk!?!?! I have found no one better who explains in simple terms the roadmap ahead.....if you don’t appreciate what you just watched, then please just quit RV today, because you are hopeless.....sorry if I offended anyone, but my career is built on protecting clients assets over a full cycle, not the next 3 months. Thank you Milton for going back to what RV was founded upon. If you don’t prepare today, you will feel the massive pain that is ahead. Protect yourself, BD
-
ACThanks
-
PCDavid likes long-duration bonds, but he expects a debt jubilee? How does that add up, exactly?
-
AMreally dull, utterly bored of Fed chatter
-
KBI was surprised by Mr. Rosenberg's discussion of CPI. He treated it as a legitimate inflation number. Surely he knows all the games that are played with that number and it hardly reflects actual inflation for middle class America. Same goes for GDP. I would expect that he would have his own normalized CPI and GDP numbers that would paint a very different picture of actual inflation and growth. Somebody help me understand why he would use those numbers? Because those are the numbers we hear on the news and we wouldn't understand the numbers he actually uses?
-
PJTalks a great deal of sense in a straight no nonsense way. Always worth a listen.
-
FBWell done...however should the Fed continue to keep the markets and economy wash in liquidity the market and economic concerns Dave has could be pushed out substantially.
-
RVThis interview confirms again that there is a bond bubble. Not because rates are low, not because rates are negative in some places but because very smart people are buying long dated bonds on the anticipation not that they will hold them to maturity, but that instead rates will fall negative and they will sell them to a greater fool. Bubble. If we get a measurable uptick in inflation these long dated bond bulls will get wiped out. Tread carefully.
-
LPDon't know if anyone has viewed the DoubleLine Panel discussion (available on YouTube) that included Rosie and Ed Hyman, the "top economist on Wall Street for 30-something years". Maybe it's my imagination but I though that Rosie could barely hide his contempt for the "content" that Hyman provided, which consisted of "I travel around the world a lot and everywhere I go it's booming." That was it. No economics that I could discern. With Rosie you know where he stands and he backs up what he says with data and economic logic.
-
MEExcellent.
-
CEFantastic!!! “If you have no plan B, you have no plan”. I always took David to be a perma- bear, but after this interview, realized his thinker is very clear. Thank you!
-
WBIndependent viewpoints. Priceless.
-
BMSuper interview! Hats off to all concerned and best wishes Dave for great success as The Boss!
-
THFantastic interview. Rosenberg is so insightful and provides so much actionable information. Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, John Burbank, David Rosenberg, Thomas Kaplan — Jesus, Raoul! You can really overdeliver.
-
EDBut housing David! Where is house prices going in Canada?
-
TMI definitely respect David's opinions. It seems like he's been early for the past couple of years, as I believe he's fighting the Fed. If the Fed ends QE, his call for the equity markets to sell off should prove correct.
-
JEDavid Rosenberg never disappoints, excellent interview.
-
RC"debt has become such a tourniquet that we can't even go through a normal interest rate cycle" Brilliant. That conjured up an image in my mind of the Fed as the little Dutch boy running around trying to plug leaks in the damn and realizing it doesn't have enough digits to stop them all.
-
AMAwesome interview. Many years ago I learned I shouldn't argue with Mr. Rosenberg's view for too long. His work as an economist is deep and insightful. He is not married to a bullish or bearish narrative, and he fine tunes his analysis as the environment changes. His comment towards about how to position over the next 5 years isn't terribly relevant for professional manages who are often judged on relative performance over a shorter time frame, but it is very relevant for investors who want to use their longer time horizon to their benefit.
-
PSI love this helicopter views, trying to step ones step away from the daily-buzz. The market is freaking greedy, there is consensus that everything is crazy expensive, but so few dare to staying out of the markets. Great interview, thanks for publishing this, highly appreciated
-
BDDave is one of the best, great interview.
-
PUI know David personally and professionally. Truly one of the best guys you could ever enjoy.
-
MSThanks very much for this. Mr. Rosenberg just has such a broad and unique perspective.
-
MKvery deep thinking. thumbs up!
-
SBWow* autocorrect 😆
-
SBWhy best interview yet !!!!