The Bond Bullion Bonfire

Published on
January 17th, 2020
Duration
59 minutes


The Bond Bullion Bonfire

Investment Ideas ·
Featuring David Rosenberg

Published on: January 17th, 2020 • Duration: 59 minutes

David Rosenberg returns to Real Vision to discuss the interplay between yield and price in an era of record-low interest rates. In conversation with Real Vision's Ed Harrison, he warns about the decade-long asset inflation in stocks as well as in bonds, which he perceives as a liquidity cycle not backed by fundamentals. He predicts central banks will remain dovish and reveals why he is constructive on gold, commodities, energy stocks, and a number of long-duration treasuries. Filmed on January 13, 2020, in Toronto.

Comments

Transcript

  • AR
    Ankit R.
    30 May 2020 @ 19:11
    Now that's an amazing conversation!
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    7 May 2020 @ 13:18
    Considering when this was recorded, it is extremely prescient.
  • SC
    Sejong C.
    10 February 2020 @ 07:57
    Investment ideas needs a wrap up at the end of the video, like Trade ideas. That would help. This interview was great from start to end, yet the delivary was subpar. A simple summary at the end would help things greatly.
  • VS
    Valtteri S.
    19 January 2020 @ 12:59
    What was the reason he stressed owning farmland so heavily? For SHTF scenario? Anybody wanna speculate?
    • RV
      Ryan V.
      19 January 2020 @ 13:07
      I would speculate that land is getting scarce. Especially workable farmland. Saudi Arabia is buying up US farmland. At the rate we are going Americans are well on track to being serfs in their own country. Warren Buffet warned of this share cropper society in his 2005 shareholder letter. He was, sadly, very right when you look at a chart of US liabilities vs US net international investment. Americans have sold their birthright for widgets.
    • JC
      Jay C.
      20 January 2020 @ 13:35
      Additionally it’s an inflation hedge you get paid to own.
    • GT
      Gene T.
      21 January 2020 @ 00:32
      Agree with other comments; would just add that Rosie is referring to a V turn in inflation. Once we see rapid (perhaps even runaway) inflation, the gig is up and many asset classes, especially those that benefitted from ultra low interest rates, will suffer. Stocks, bonds, real estate could all see significant markdowns reflecting the new cost of money. Productive, income-producing assets such as farmland should see their value keep pace with inflation.
    • VS
      Valtteri S.
      21 January 2020 @ 20:51
      Good points, thank you for the answers.
    • AR
      Anthony R.
      5 February 2020 @ 01:31
      Gold with a dividend. Correlated to inflation.
  • SG
    Steve G.
    24 January 2020 @ 21:59
    This guy skips around on topics faster than a back alley preacher. Quite the salesman.
    • yd
      yon d.
      27 January 2020 @ 01:26
      I agree. I'm a fan of David Rosenberg, but Ed isn't a great interviewer, in my opinion. Ed's interview style is predictable: stumbling all the way without a cogent question, really. Just mumbling. David is smart but letting him ramble on keeps this interview less coherent.
  • ET
    Ed T.
    21 January 2020 @ 23:03
    Great interview! and two questions: First, how does a debt jubilee work if one person's liability is another's asset? All of these trillions in loans are held as investments by individuals, pensions, investment funds etc. I don't see how they can simply be cancelled without seriously damaging the net worth of many. Second, on issues like student loan forgiveness, isn't there an issue of fairness there that if ignored could set off some serious unrest? It would essentially be a public gift of sometimes tens of thousands of dollars to the people who took out the largest college loans, even if they used it to fund spring break in Florida. What about the person who went to in-state school to keep costs down, or the one who worked all through college or traded four years of their life to the armed services as I did to fund college? What about the person who chose not to go to college but has other forms of debt? Why is one group more deserving of public funds than another? Fed policies have already created the largest wealth disparity in U.S. history, and now we consider giving this massive gift to a certain class of people, as opposed to all others. I don't get it.
    • SA
      Scott A.
      22 January 2020 @ 01:28
      I think the most likely outcome would be a sovereign jubilee, not a private asset one. The G7 countries all agree on some % of cancellation of government owned bonds and poof it's gone. While I agree with you 100% on the student loan point, I think that would be the result of a certain party trying to buy the election, not a coordinated international effort. Really good interview. Especially getting you to not only think about a jubilee, but what happens after. We all tend to think Germany and Zimbabwe, his thoughts are totally different.
    • cz
      chris z.
      22 January 2020 @ 15:13
      On the fairness point. Sure it would be unfair, but the fed is infamous for bailing out Wall Street in ‘08 and is currently bailing out hedge funds with repo. We collectively agree to bail out poor people and old people. So to me the student bailout is just another extension of that, not some brand new treatment for a specific class.
    • MC
      Minum C.
      26 January 2020 @ 15:40
      A debt jubilee doesn't work. The currency unit of the jubilee nation will become worthless against the currency unit of a non-jubilee nation. To protect one's purchasing power against such crony capitalism, one needs to own gold in lieu of promissory notes issued by the central bank of the jubilee nation or bonds issued by the Government of the jubilee nation. In my opinion, a negative risk free interest rate is a mild form of debt jubilee.
  • AA
    Aaron A.
    26 January 2020 @ 14:46
    I’m shocked he actually trusts the “official” inflation readings. Has he stepped foot in a grocery store any time in the last 5yrs....there is plenty of inflation in the real world, and that is happening with depressed oil prices. Just wait until oil goes back to $100. Otherwise, great interview.
  • Av
    Arthur v.
    18 January 2020 @ 18:35
    David's view is not unlike the guys at hedgeye which see the US economy hitting Quad 4 which is growth slowing and inflation slowing. This will happen in Q2 this year. Long bonds and Bullion is not a wrong choice.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      19 January 2020 @ 02:50
      Interestingly the Friday morning early show pdf pack showed US going into quad 1. Maybe it was a narrow adjustment that tilted the model.
    • AH
      Andreas H.
      26 January 2020 @ 10:37
      yep!
  • AH
    Andreas H.
    26 January 2020 @ 10:33
    Last Interview I did not agree, and there was a lot of recency bias in my view. Now I agree! Good time to hedge your stock portfolio with TLT!
  • JL
    Jack L.
    22 January 2020 @ 08:48
    Fantastic. This is what "television" was meant to be. This one interview is worth the annual subscription price for RV. Ed H. did a great job allowing the interviewee to sketch out very complex ideas at length. Also he seems a bit more at-ease here than in some earlier pieces he's done. Keep up the great work.
    • BM
      Beth M.
      26 January 2020 @ 02:31
      Yes indeed! This is a great example of why I subscribe.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    24 January 2020 @ 11:19
    I would love to see an interview with Richard Werner author of Princes of Yen.
  • DB
    Daniel B.
    24 January 2020 @ 11:18
    32 minutes in WHAT A GREAT INTERVIEW. Ed Harrison is a fantastic interviewer btw, thoroughly impressed with him.
  • NR
    Nathan R.
    18 January 2020 @ 14:21
    Curious. USD bull, ED bull, UST bull, Gold bull. A question: Does silver rise with gold and close the ratio?
    • SM
      Stephan M.
      22 January 2020 @ 17:31
      There is no need or reason for any ratio between them. In history there was some fixed ratio by governments but this time is long gone.
  • CB
    Chris B.
    19 January 2020 @ 19:30
    Why has Grant Williams gone dark? I miss him and his perspectives
    • GT
      Gene T.
      21 January 2020 @ 00:17
      Here's a free MacroVoices podcast with Grant published just last week: https://www.podbean.com/ew/pb-qhj5b-cfdbfc
    • GW
      Geoff W.
      22 January 2020 @ 10:37
      I hope Grant is still part of RV?
  • cz
    chris z.
    20 January 2020 @ 21:02
    How exactly does one invest into "long bonds"? Is there a specific ticker I can look at?
    • GT
      Gene T.
      21 January 2020 @ 00:11
      The ticker for the largest ETF to represent the long bond trade is TLT, which has an average duration of over 20 years for the treasury bonds held by the ETF.
    • JM
      Jason M.
      21 January 2020 @ 11:08
      ZROZ
  • DL
    Darryn L.
    21 January 2020 @ 02:04
    Debt Jubilee with a perpetual coin. If you follow that through, Fed sells bonds back to govt for (say) $1 Trillion coin, govt cancels $1 Trillion debt. Sounds easy but what is on the other side of the Fed's balance sheet? Bank reserves. What happens when velocity picks up? How does the Fed remove the excess reserves? To do it now it could sell bonds. No-one is going to buy a perpetual zero coupon coin. What about raising required reserve requirement? That's just a lot of tied up capital that can't be used for anything. What is the impact of that?
  • RP
    Ryan P.
    19 January 2020 @ 10:39
    I thought he was on the money until I heard his outlook on Gold. He doesn't understand it's role. Gold is not a currency, it is an asset. It falls when the dollar rises. It will only act as a haven in complete contagion.
    • PC
      Peter C.
      20 January 2020 @ 08:13
      Go back & restudy gold
    • jl
      john l.
      20 January 2020 @ 20:50
      You could possibly be the one to not understand. From around June/July 2019 to Sep/Oct 2019 the dollar went up. Gold did not fall. It went up also.
    • GT
      Gene T.
      21 January 2020 @ 00:43
      All currencies weaken vis-a-vis gold in an environment of raid (hyper) inflation. The return of inflation is what he's expecting over the next 5 years.
  • RM
    R M.
    20 January 2020 @ 22:05
    Tour-de-force!
  • JM
    John M.
    17 January 2020 @ 18:57
    A debt jubilee for student debt, while helpful in the short term, does nothing to disrupt a public-owned, tradition bound, high-cost structure educational system. We need creative destruction.
    • DS
      David S.
      17 January 2020 @ 22:15
      A debt jubilee for student debt sends the wrong message, as it will be expected to happen over and over again. If a student uses college to be more marketable in the job market, then the cost of her/his loans should be looked at as a working life investment. Yet, as a society, we do need to fund educations at many levels. It is a very complex issue, but the incentives need to be to encourage training at the college level and trade school level. In the new economy having an electrical or plumbing licence may have a higher net present value than many college degrees. DLS
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      18 January 2020 @ 03:07
      Anytime the government gets involved n the free market they distort it. If there is a debt jubilee for student debt... then they need to exit all student financing and student loan guarantees. In the old days students worked to pay for education and or their parents paid as you went. It worked out for most people and for the economy. Question is how many "hours" after that law went into effect before universities would slash their tuitions? And instead of the students living the high life during their summers ...they would start being productive to society.
    • KJ
      Kelly J.
      18 January 2020 @ 21:33
      I find it laughable that we readers, many of whom presumably, like me, have meaningfully enlarged our nominal wealth since 2009 - that great sign of our 'genius' in the modern world - by dumbly hitching our wagon to the most horribly gov't distorted, intentionally inflated stock and bond markets in world history, are suddenly worried that students might get the wrong message by benefitting from the same distortion, but in a simpler, more direct form. Wall St and the phony US financial system and economy were cut slack to the tune of $20 trillion or more according various accountings using the info forced out of the Fed by the Freedom of Information Act after the 2009 credit-fraud debacle. IMO, the Fed probably acted illegally in some of its purchases/underwriting. There is no undistorted free market, if there ever was, and there certainly won't be one now without a global depression first. Better to start distorting in favor of younger people and their future instead of we old dogs who have become so superior winning a rigged game while half asleep, or the future will turn out to be worth a lot less than our absurd brokerage statements now imply. We might even have to all go back to school to actually learn a productive trade instead of living off the hot air and hot money of central bankers. The notion that it makes any sense that the US economy slowed markedly last year, faces growing international factionalism but the US S&P popped 30% - now THAT's what I call distortion. http://www.levyinstitute.org/publications/29000000000000-a-detailed-look-at-the-feds-bailout-by-funding-facility-and-recipient
    • NI
      Nate I.
      19 January 2020 @ 01:16
      Two words. Moral hazard.
    • DS
      David S.
      19 January 2020 @ 03:02
      Kelly J. - I am all for figuring out how to help the next several generations. It needs to be done to make them better and our society better. I want the money to go into fixing roads and bridges. re-inventing the internet. Most of the debt forgiveness is pandering by politicians for votes.Then they will not deliver it. Maybe we should vote to paying the interest on student loans. If they go into teaching forgive 20% per year. I would oppose just forgiving all the loans. DLS
    • cz
      chris z.
      20 January 2020 @ 21:00
      Agree that in true free market we would not be talking about a student debt jubilee. However, the problem was created by Federal underwriting of bad loans which are now effectively in default. So the Fed needs to take the pain. If they stop underwriting loans you will see tuition costs plummet in a hurry. Additionally, we are already bailing out hedge funds and financial institutions AGAIN with QE4 and so let's shut down ALL bailouts if you want to talk about moral hazard.
  • GE
    George E.
    17 January 2020 @ 22:23
    One question that comes to mind: how is the sequence they layout in this conversation wrong?
    • cz
      chris z.
      20 January 2020 @ 20:58
      We could possibly get inflation in the near term & not have to worry about deflation or the Jubilee
  • FG
    Flavio G.
    19 January 2020 @ 11:25
    The start was slow but it turned out to be a very interesting interview. There is something that took my attention: "The debt monetization, if it is done right, and it restores the growth of money velocity, we will get the inflation". D.R. Hasn't Japan tried everything already? What hasn't been tried yet there? And isn't there a risk that by trying even more crazy things, you end up with the defenestration of the USD as the reserve currency and as a consequence impairing the US capability to push its geopolitical and economic weight around the world?
    • cz
      chris z.
      20 January 2020 @ 20:55
      Well the premise is that IF we restore velocity, then inflation will come. In Japan they have not restored Velocity. I agree with you that there is a risk that we fail to restore Velocity. In any case I think the dollar is under threat as global reserve currency (10 year timeframe). That doesn't change the fact that we may go down that route.
  • cz
    chris z.
    20 January 2020 @ 20:52
    "It's going to be trillions of dollars of perpetual coin that the Treasury puts on the Fed's balance sheet. We have to go through ... the debt jubilee." He then goes on to explain that we will not allow it to default. We also cannot inflate it away. So how exactly will this play out? Any investment ideas to make money off it?
  • JB
    Jon B.
    20 January 2020 @ 17:13
    My question: Why should I assume that an overpriced stock will automatically fall because of some black / grey swan event if the Fed continues QE? Context: 27:26 minutes - If, for the sake of argument, inflation is only really occurring in equity market, so long as the fed keeps up with QE, will the face value of these stock prices just go to infinity? If we see countries like Zimbabwe who are subject to hyperinflation, where people trade literally sackfuls of cash just for the essentials, does this become the new normal? With Cash, people opt for a different currency once they recognize the intrinsic value of the currency - when the face value of the currency being denominated in the 100000 and 1000000's is still accepted as that. There is no sudden day of reckoning whereas if by magic the number of zeros magically disappear. Also I found this useful: https://thismatter.com/money/banking/money-growth-money-velocity-inflation.htm
    • JB
      Jon B.
      20 January 2020 @ 17:25
      so by extension What alternative do these investment banks have to the equity market with all this extra liquidity they have been given? And at what point will they decide to switch? Are they all going to jump into bonds?
    • cz
      chris z.
      20 January 2020 @ 20:49
      Well the difference is that Zimbabwe had core price inflation, so the money printing was driving prices and therefore bottom lines. In our scenario, because the Velocity has collapsed, the new money is not driving core inflation. It's only driving the valuation multiples of financial assets, but not the underlying fundamentals. I suppose that theoretically this could go on forever, but history tells us that valuations will top out somewhere around where we are right now.
  • cz
    chris z.
    20 January 2020 @ 18:14
    What are some of the defensive equities that he mentions at the end?
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    20 January 2020 @ 13:08
    If you follow suger and believe this is an inflation indicator. It has already started. I think he is correct in most that is stated. I don't agree that any debt will be forgiven. It has never worked that way. Its is a way of controlling the public.
    • TS
      Troels S.
      20 January 2020 @ 16:48
      what is suger?
  • PC
    Peter C.
    20 January 2020 @ 08:22
    Excellent interview. Rosie has such depth of knowledge resulting in great insights. I also really like Ed as the interviewer (who is none-egotistic and keeps his mouth shut except to add clarity, move the interview along,... the opposite of those irritating CNBC, Bloomberg,... male interviewers like Joe Kernan who can't stop talking)
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    19 January 2020 @ 21:26
    Started off slow but really picked up steam. Fantastic stuff as usual from Rosie - great to get his perspective, especially now that he is independent and has the luxury of being totally forthright with his views. Awesome stuff. Well done, Ed, as usual - great interviewing and thanks for orienting the conversation so adroitly. Vintage RV quality - this is why I’m a subscriber.
  • WM
    Will M.
    19 January 2020 @ 21:03
    Very good indeed. He makes a good argument for an inflationary pulse. I am banking on gold (and silver) personally plus precious metals stocks as my lifeboat. I am also thinking a commodity boom will follow. I do not disagree on the short term for bonds if the FED push rates down to try to keep things afloat but its just so hard to believe all this liquidity will not eventually lead to inflation. Finally, everyone seems to think oil is done......having worked in the business for 40 years it feels like rumors of the death of oil are greatly overdone. Things may well be different in 20 years for sure, but we are still in a hydrocarbon driven world and the cost to get that oil has soared in recent years and there has been limited development plans actioned to replace the dwindling reserves. I think we will have $100 oil before anyone really understands where we stand on inelastic energy supply.
  • BD
    Bruce D.
    19 January 2020 @ 15:55
    Fabulous discussion from Rosie, SO HAPPY he is now independent , so he can give us his unadulterated viewpoints, away from the banksters that hire Economists, and pay them what to say! If you watched this, and think it’s boring or doesn’t have actionable items, you are asleep! WAKE UP people, he just handed you the 5 year plan to invest, that’s all.... I am presently living the nightmare of clients firing you for being hedged, protected, creating income to live on and making only 15% in 2019.....I have lost more clients in the past year, than in any of my 30 years of business due to underperforming the dumb money fools that only buy the S&P 500 index because it’s free and think they have NO risk!?!?! I have found no one better who explains in simple terms the roadmap ahead.....if you don’t appreciate what you just watched, then please just quit RV today, because you are hopeless.....sorry if I offended anyone, but my career is built on protecting clients assets over a full cycle, not the next 3 months. Thank you Milton for going back to what RV was founded upon. If you don’t prepare today, you will feel the massive pain that is ahead. Protect yourself, BD
    • WM
      Will M.
      19 January 2020 @ 20:26
      I am with you Bruce. I am not looking for 6% on my retirement savings, not even 4%, but I do need something to live on while I wait for the coming carnage.
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    19 January 2020 @ 06:04
    Thanks
  • PC
    Philip C.
    17 January 2020 @ 18:12
    David likes long-duration bonds, but he expects a debt jubilee? How does that add up, exactly?
    • AS
      Alejandro S.
      18 January 2020 @ 00:05
      You own the bonda into the crisis that is needed to force a debt jubilee and you switch to real assets before or during that downturn.
    • DS
      David S.
      19 January 2020 @ 03:06
      A debt jubilee is undefined at the moment. In the 500 BCE Athens all debts were forgiven. I do not thing we are thinking about that. DLS
  • AM
    Alastair M.
    18 January 2020 @ 10:10
    really dull, utterly bored of Fed chatter
    • RV
      Ryan V.
      18 January 2020 @ 19:40
      The fed is all that drives the market these days.
    • DS
      David S.
      19 January 2020 @ 02:04
      I think the markets are more driven by politics. The Fed and other CBs are adding liquidity to cover the vast deficits. Politicians want you to focus on the Fed. The Fed is important, but it is the tail of the dog. DLS
  • KB
    Kenneth B.
    18 January 2020 @ 16:54
    I was surprised by Mr. Rosenberg's discussion of CPI. He treated it as a legitimate inflation number. Surely he knows all the games that are played with that number and it hardly reflects actual inflation for middle class America. Same goes for GDP. I would expect that he would have his own normalized CPI and GDP numbers that would paint a very different picture of actual inflation and growth. Somebody help me understand why he would use those numbers? Because those are the numbers we hear on the news and we wouldn't understand the numbers he actually uses?
    • KJ
      Kelly J.
      18 January 2020 @ 20:46
      I noticed that, too, Kenneth. For one things, my guess is it's a bit tough to be a well-publicized economist and jerry-rig your own numbers for inflation and CPI and then have to defend those, rather than use the official numbers as a springboard that you then can qualify to create your own narrative. Rosenberg makes it clear he knows CPI doesn't reflect people's actual, higher inflationary experience here: "I still very much favor the Treasury market because everything that we've seen happen is telling us that inflation-- and I speak to so many people that essentially, they say, well, my inflation rate's a lot higher. Look at education, look at health, look at a lot of the things that you can't substitute away from. Well, that's right. Seeing people that say to me, well, look at my tax bill, that's inflationary, no, your tax bill-- if your taxes are going up, it's actually disinflationary because it's leaving less money for you to spend on discretionary items. That's the heart here of what we're talking about." In other words, here (and elsewhere) he's saying that the bind that higher prices in key areas put on consumers actually hasn't and won't have an inflationary impact on bond interest rates and company earnings unless wages, consumer demand, and the velocity of money in the economy rise accordingly. Otherwise, personally experienced higher than official CPI inflation actually has a self-corrective, counter-intuitive effect on the economy. It creates a drag on discretionary spending that gets increasingly intense, squeezing down demand in the 70% consumption portion of the economy in a deflationary effect both on rates and demand for companies' goods. To overcome that drag, the economy & households continue to build debt in order to keep moving, keep growing, thereby, paradoxically adding to the drag. At the household levels, for many years now, consumer debt has been ramping, and is now well above 2008 levels. The net result of using debt to generate growth is deflationary for both rates and economic demand, as we've seen for decades in Japan, for years in the ECB and now in the US as well.
    • NI
      Nate I.
      19 January 2020 @ 01:13
      I agree. I've read and listened to David for many years, his views are always valuable, but never once have I heard him acknowledge that the CPI is pure hogwash. It always was hogwash to some extent, but even the directional signal is now worthless thanks to the hedonic adjustments. BLS can basically cook any number they want by pretending that new stuff is much better than old stuff (inverted reality because new stuff malfunctions and wears out so frequently coupled with being deliberately unrepairable) that there is no inflation despite higher prices. My question back to these BLS charlatans is where exactly do I go to buy a 1969 television set for $2 dollars? Moreover, where is the anti-hedonic adjustment for designed in obsolescence, diminished service life, and being unrepairable? Was the 737-MAX really better than the original 737? That's resounding no but BLS would tell you it's fabulous with all of its novel bells/whistles (that drove it straight into the ground with the people in it but let's not worry about that little detail).
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    18 January 2020 @ 23:10
    Talks a great deal of sense in a straight no nonsense way. Always worth a listen.
  • FB
    Floyd B.
    18 January 2020 @ 22:51
    Well done...however should the Fed continue to keep the markets and economy wash in liquidity the market and economic concerns Dave has could be pushed out substantially.
  • RV
    Ryan V.
    17 January 2020 @ 23:17
    This interview confirms again that there is a bond bubble. Not because rates are low, not because rates are negative in some places but because very smart people are buying long dated bonds on the anticipation not that they will hold them to maturity, but that instead rates will fall negative and they will sell them to a greater fool. Bubble. If we get a measurable uptick in inflation these long dated bond bulls will get wiped out. Tread carefully.
    • DB
      Douglas B.
      18 January 2020 @ 22:07
      That’s why he said he is watching V very closely
  • LP
    Lynn P.
    18 January 2020 @ 21:31
    Don't know if anyone has viewed the DoubleLine Panel discussion (available on YouTube) that included Rosie and Ed Hyman, the "top economist on Wall Street for 30-something years". Maybe it's my imagination but I though that Rosie could barely hide his contempt for the "content" that Hyman provided, which consisted of "I travel around the world a lot and everywhere I go it's booming." That was it. No economics that I could discern. With Rosie you know where he stands and he backs up what he says with data and economic logic.
  • ME
    Michael E.
    18 January 2020 @ 19:07
    Excellent.
  • CE
    Ch E.
    18 January 2020 @ 17:15
    Fantastic!!! “If you have no plan B, you have no plan”. I always took David to be a perma- bear, but after this interview, realized his thinker is very clear. Thank you!
  • WB
    William B.
    18 January 2020 @ 06:02
    Independent viewpoints. Priceless.
  • BM
    Bryan M.
    18 January 2020 @ 03:16
    Super interview! Hats off to all concerned and best wishes Dave for great success as The Boss!
  • TH
    Tom H.
    18 January 2020 @ 01:46
    Fantastic interview. Rosenberg is so insightful and provides so much actionable information. Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, John Burbank, David Rosenberg, Thomas Kaplan — Jesus, Raoul! You can really overdeliver.
  • ED
    Eric D.
    17 January 2020 @ 23:24
    But housing David! Where is house prices going in Canada?
  • TM
    Timothy M.
    17 January 2020 @ 23:01
    I definitely respect David's opinions. It seems like he's been early for the past couple of years, as I believe he's fighting the Fed. If the Fed ends QE, his call for the equity markets to sell off should prove correct.
  • JE
    James E.
    17 January 2020 @ 21:59
    David Rosenberg never disappoints, excellent interview.
  • RC
    Rob C.
    17 January 2020 @ 19:38
    "debt has become such a tourniquet that we can't even go through a normal interest rate cycle" Brilliant. That conjured up an image in my mind of the Fed as the little Dutch boy running around trying to plug leaks in the damn and realizing it doesn't have enough digits to stop them all.
  • MC
    Minum C.
    17 January 2020 @ 17:16
    Awesome interview. Many years ago I learned I shouldn't argue with Mr. Rosenberg's view for too long. His work as an economist is deep and insightful. He is not married to a bullish or bearish narrative, and he fine tunes his analysis as the environment changes. His comment towards about how to position over the next 5 years isn't terribly relevant for professional manages who are often judged on relative performance over a shorter time frame, but it is very relevant for investors who want to use their longer time horizon to their benefit.
  • PS
    Peter S.
    17 January 2020 @ 15:43
    I love this helicopter views, trying to step ones step away from the daily-buzz. The market is freaking greedy, there is consensus that everything is crazy expensive, but so few dare to staying out of the markets. Great interview, thanks for publishing this, highly appreciated
  • BD
    Brian D.
    17 January 2020 @ 15:40
    Dave is one of the best, great interview.
  • PU
    Peter U.
    17 January 2020 @ 14:34
    I know David personally and professionally. Truly one of the best guys you could ever enjoy.
  • MS
    Marius S.
    17 January 2020 @ 13:28
    Thanks very much for this. Mr. Rosenberg just has such a broad and unique perspective.
  • MK
    Marko K.
    17 January 2020 @ 12:30
    very deep thinking. thumbs up!
  • SB
    Simon B.
    17 January 2020 @ 11:46
    Wow* autocorrect 😆
  • SB
    Simon B.
    17 January 2020 @ 11:31
    Why best interview yet !!!!