Comments
Transcript
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IPReally excellent
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PEDon't watch this when you're sleepy or distracted because you'll get left behind in a hurry! Great session! Thanks.
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MDGreat interview - thanks Ed and Darius. I really enjoyed it. Some great insights in an action packed 32 mins. Normally someone who speaks very quickly is hiding a lack of knowledge, but it is the opposite with Darius. Impressed with his depth of knowledge and clarity of conveying those ideas. Both were able to consider the political risk (US election) looming for the markets without bias and with clarity. A few strong, clear points to take away and consider. Thanks again.
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GBI really enjoyed this interview, but I feel like the Fed losing the long-end of the YC cannot happen for, as Luke Gromen mentions, national security reasons. We simply cannot afford to have the YC increase at the tail end due to our debt levels. If YC steepening did occur the Fed could step in with YCC and would likely be able to limit their bond purchases in the process. That is the most likely view IMO.
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CLI find it kinda funny how they were "deep quad 4" telling you to not buy shit that went up, keep buying dollars etc now, as the market is turning, they advocate buying the stuff that's already rallied 30-40% buy tech? Fuck. QQQ down 9% in 3 days. Now they're short dollars? Lol market have been net short since February.
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TEQuadzilla! Good to see you on Real Vision.
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NPHedgeye is not an investment or a research firm. They're internet influencers and make all their money from subscriber revenue and silly entertainment. As a firm, they're toxic and delete any negative comments on their platform and block mildly negative remarks (and questions) on Twitter even from paying customers. Their goal is to sign up new subs each month to replace the enormous churn of subs. The company president, Keith McCollough, sued a former customer for backtesting their process (the quads) and confirming it delivered zero alpha. The case settled before trial. Since 2008, the Hedgeye crew, including Darius, have abused customers and rival financial media using rude and offensive language (I guess this adds to the show for small minds). They consistently make false claims of picking the top or bottom of every cycle. Almost every month, Keith has claimed his net worth is at an all-time high but never provides proof. Darius has tried to stand up to Keith, but after a few days, he always falls into line. He knows there is too much money to be made from selling the useless framework/media show to gullible new subscribers online. We must call out the bullshit in financial media. Please do your research, but I think you'll find the comments above are accurate and fair. If you're a fan of Keith and Darius, awesome, I hope you get at least a few laughs for the money you give them.
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tcI always think of Keith and Dale as the Preacher and the Professor. Great data analysis but in practice in their retail portfolios they are terrible managers. ETF Pros is a P.O.S and trade ideas almost as bad. Continually closing out trades at losses and carry many other loosers. Can't understand why they don't put more intelligence into it. They are screwing the people they claim to educate
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VSA LOT of 'Old Wall' heads on RV by the looks of things!
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SHWow. That was unreal. Thank you!!
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SHLots of people here seem really sour about Hedgeye. Not sure why. I realize Keith can be a bit abrasive from time to time but also I don't blame him given how abrasive some of his followers can be (as far as I can see on twitter). I've been a subscriber for the last couple months and I love Keith and the rest of the teams analysis in the macro show. I think the biggest issue people have is not being a subscriber of their full package that they offer. I find there is a REALLY good market analysis balance between the content on RV and Hedgeye. Would highly recommend for those that can afford the subscription of both.
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SCA summary at the end, like the old investment ideas / trade ideas is missing. Good interview.
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shgreat interview. I really respect both these guys. Hedgeye has made me and saved me alot of money. Thanks
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TZSo basically sell your stocks. I am getting out of gold stocks as well. Was hammered with the rest of the stock market in March. Taking profits! I expect gold stocks to fall with the rest of the market by the next down move.
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CWThat Trump could want to "perpetual a market event" rather than "upside economic activity" so he is able to pin the socialist label on Biden is an intriguing possibility I've never thought about. Interesting A high quality interview overall. Well done and thank you, Ed & Darius!
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DLPerhaps the most coherent discussion I’ve heard yet concerning Fed/Fiscal policy and how/when we get to an inflationary dollar. Thanks guys.
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RTGood interview. Lot of things bounced above my head :). How much are their returns compared to other portfolio types? I believe in a simple, poor mans macro portfolio also called as Permanent portfolio which based on four macro environment (inflation,deflation,recession,prosperity) which seems to kicks all high sounding mumbo-jumbo portfolios in the long run. It gives a good night sleep. A 25% allocation in gold, long term bonds, cash and stocks. Check out how Huge Hendry is praising the Permanent Portfolio here in this interview with George. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U44_auRtR78&feature=youtu.be&t=3725 Here is the comparison of the Permanent portfolio after the crash and big bounce with all the other famous portfolios. https://portfoliocharts.com/2020/06/08/welcome-to-the-big-bounce/
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KCGreat discussion
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AATerrific interview. Good insights. I like his approach that only the near future is predictable. I agree that this “bounce” Trying to predict multiple turning points down the path is sheer arrogance. While I find Keith to be abrasive and just not informative, I think Darius is highly intelligent and thoughtful.
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SFWould be interested to hear Darius elaborate more on the "Wall St is socialist " claim - sounds intriguing! Great interview.
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DWExcellent. Have to play this one at 1x speed, Darius guns it.
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HSThe recent debacle at Hedgeye with Darius saying the U.S was momentarily in Quad 1 and Keith deciding to go with a Quad 4 framework has really knocked my confidence in their services. Keith often talks about taking opinion and feeling out of the process and doing what the math and framework tells you but on this occasion he deviated from his own data. I don't think I'll be able to regain my trust in them.
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DPWhy is oil recommended over gold in quad 3 stagflation? That doesn't make sense. Why recommend a commodity heavily dependent on growth which is the opposite of what you get in stagflation vs a purer inflation hedge like gold? We can look back to stagflation back in the 70's and gold did really well. The only reason oil did as well as it did was because of the embargo, not inflation per se. Gold just seems like the safer, more reliable play in this scenario.
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JPDarius great job!!!
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mbYes! More “Investment Ideas”!!!
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JSGreat interview. Really appreciated the structure outlined and how it helps think about a framework.
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AKGood job guys. These two work well together.
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MCExcellent interview. And love the 30 minute format. Most people can say what they need within 30 minutes (or less). If the macro policy cliff is real (and much of it is mechanistic) , what are the bulls seeing in 2H? If we are talking of financial repression, then time to get Russell Napier back on!
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BCInformative interview. Mr. Dale highlighted the slowing late-cycle trend already occurring pre-COVID, thus resumption of that trend even under the most favorable COVID scenario playing out would still result in a slowing ROC long-term trend. That said, the overwhelming impact on risk assets of continued Treasury/Fed coordination is very difficult to fade regardless of the data.
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DSAfter the second viewing I am even more impressed with Mr. Dale's grasp and rational delivery of so much information. Mr. Dale made it quite clear we are jumping into the vortex this summer. The virus and medical world will fight it out with The Opening - sounds ominous. The political side will do the same with much less predictability - more ominous. I see no reason to change my bunker mentality toward any of the markets. The virus and politics have us in their grip. Both are unpredictable. I would like to see Mr. Dale interviewed in August to make sense of economy, markets and politics before the election. Thanks. DLS
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LPStrong performance by Darius. For me, particularly so near the end, where he maintained his discipline to note that it would be disingenuous (I believe that was his word) to imply he could predict when we get past deep quad 3 (basically call a bottom). Instead, investors should focus on what he has strong conviction about, namely, that the next several quarters are likely to be far worse than the conventional wisdom is headlining (and Minuchin and Powell are pumping). Defensive positioning is the call, if I understand where Darius and Hedgeye stand.
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JHReally like Darius and the framework of the Quads that Hedgeye brings.
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mBDarius came out on fire!!!!
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DRSuperb
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AWEd, thank you so much for interviewing Darius. I am a Hedgeye subscriber, because I love Darius’s work. Have been waiting in vain for an update from him on Hedgeye. Thrilled to have it now at Real Vision. Total respect to both of you.
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DMReally excellent conversation, guys—thank you.
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APGreat stuff, DD! The Hedgeye guys never disappoint.
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MLLoved this interview, and the Quads framework. On this interview, slides played an important role because they included excellent information and data points. I wish we could have the option to download the slide to read them along the discussion. I kept on putting the video on pause to read them. THANK YOU!
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DSI still find the word snapback, that many investors and commentators use, has no quantitative or temporal value. What is going to snapback is often left to context. If you want the word to have meaning say the stock market will snapback 10% in 4Q2020 or the GDP will snapback 5% in the 3Q2020 or the Tesla will snapback about 10% in the next few weeks. These statements have meaning as snapback gives the direction. Not quantifying snapback allows for so much misunderstanding. Without some type of magnitude and time component, the word snapback is only a quarter of an idea - What, When, Direction and Magnitude. The interviewer should ask how much do you think the stock market is going to snapback this quarter if he/she wants to inform the listener. Otherwise the statement is just a verbal pause without much meaning. Which is ok if that is the intent of the person. DLS
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VJ#RiseAndGrind!
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RLDarius, this is Ross Lovell. If you ever want to leave your current job, look me up. I'm in the membership database there, and I would welcome an opportunity to hire you. Get in touch at the very least.
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DSSolid interview for perspective and time frames. I was preoccupied during parts and will watch again. Although I like the four-quadrant setup, for the rest of the year the only two stories that will count are COVID-19 and politics. The comment about Senator McConnell, a lot of double consonants CC,NN and LL great for doublespeak - is very interesting. Senator McConnell normally follows the truer path of the administration thinking. It never occurred to me that a president would want to go into a re-election campaign trying to hurt the economy and blame it on the other party. When reviewing the news, it looks more like Senator McConnell is looking for spending measures to help the reopening the economy and not stimulus checks to individuals This is more in line with President Trump's messaging. DLS
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MTMr. Harrison and Mr. Dale, two men who's opinion I value greatly. Appreciate the excellent discussion and look forward to the next one!!
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JHFantastic stuff. Vintage Darius Dale - some of those most thoughtful and intelligent commentary on markets I’ve seen all year long. Trust Darius to bring home the bacon! Thank you to Ed as well!
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RMWhether you agree or disagree with his points, well presented. I tend to agree and like his perspective for setting up your portfolio for the future and not be so focused on FOMO today.
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FGGuys, I'd like to draw your attention to Robin Hood people performance as depicted on this tweet: https://twitter.com/zck/status/1270861920564723717 It helps in bringing some context to the people commenting on the terrible day Robin Hood investors are having. Cheers
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RSwhy have "we lost 1mio jobs for good"? can you elaborate on the reason? is it because you assume profound change in ppls habits which requires economical adjustments? or other reasons?
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RMI am a Hedgeye subscriber too. I like their framework. It's a trading oriented site. Not my thing. But still the site is very useful. Lot's of fundamental stock analysis too.
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jgAmazing interview. I thank you both!
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SSLove Darius! Great interview. Jam packed, as Benoit said below. Nice to hear Hedgeye’s mid to longer term view articulated.
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BLExcellent discussion and very insightful content .... so jam packed with information that I had to watch it twice, back to back. I agree that you need to bring Darius back in late Q3/early Q4. Late Q2/Q3 is likely to be a very interesting period for sure when the economic reality sets in. Q4 might be as interesting, if not more, due to the politics at play then, more so if Trump losses the election. One thing certain about Trump is that he is not a good looser, so buckle up for 3 months of power transition chaos if that scenario plays out.
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MRFirst !