Comments
Transcript
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BFWould be good to know how a retail trader can put on an ED steepener. I think these are professional products.
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JCGreat interview. After the recent bond selloff seems like it might be a very good time to get back into Eurodollar futures after this Fed meeting today. Trade is now to zero on the short end but June- Dec 2020 99 Eurodollar calls got a lot cheaper these past couple of weeks. LIBOR goes away in 2021 wondering what implications that has on the Eurodollar market and how it will impact the longer-dated trade.
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EKGood technical discussion. I am sure most retail investors like myself are pretty much unfamiliar with this key aspect of investment let alone macro. Hard to find this kind of content anywhere else. One note - Orsley made an interesting obiter dictu comment about young people migrating to the coasts. Would make an interesting demographic topic if generation Z migrates outward.
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RHTop shelf interview as Mr. Harrison guided it perfectly with Mr. Orsley connecting the dots. But I don't see interest rates dropping long term, short term yes. Consider capital flows away from EM, a run to safe-haven currencies (JPY/USD, CNY/USD, BTC/USD), run to gold & international treasuries (BWX) since April, etc. Corporate, government debt issuance up. This tells me some are waking up to the fact that QE failed cuz growth is slowing. China can lower their standards all they want, if smart investors can't make a buck, they sit, regardless of interest rates. China trade to U.S. is what, 3% GDP? Staring down the wrong pipe. ECB QE shit the bed! Now we see more central banks lowering rates? That sends the wrong message. Grandma ain't taking any extra trips on these rates already so there goes that chunk of an economy. Never has lower interest rates stopped a recession, monetary crisis, or debt crisis. The global economy is slowing FFS! I don't care how low interest rates go, you don't invest in an aging race horse. Giving your kid $60 grand for college only delays you from buying that new car and still your kid still can't afford a house. So as liquidity dries up, globally, then they (government & corporate) will all have to compete for yield to suck them in. Obviously Powell can't raise rates now, then the USD & debt skyrocket. But when competition for debt heats up, both sides need to up the offer. I have a better chance of wine & cheese values rising as they age.
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GGGreat interview!!
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LCWhat an incredibly insightful and thought-provoking interview, packing a lot of strong and technical content in 34 minutes. Great discussion and would love to hear more of Mark Orsley's views, so certainly bring him back!
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PPThis was a great interview, even though I don't necessarily agree with his conclusions. Everyone and their dog thinks inflation is dead and will never come back. Therefore, it is likely to come back. Demograph trends can be influenced through immigration policy, so that is no lock either.
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JQI really missed the days when Marc Orsley and Charlie McElligott were both @ RBC publishing their weekly macro views. Was pure gold!
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DSThe US unemployment rate is the lowest in 50 years. The numbers hired should be lower as the pool of willing workers is depleted monthly. DLS
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KRExcellent interview. So when he says buy long-duration treasuries, why would/should one not buy intermediate-duration treasuries?
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MAExceptional! Great content.
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RAAnother great Guest and another great job by Ed. Very focused pithy and concise presentation on a relevant topic. This is the essence of why I have been with RV almost since inception and why I continue to allocate my time to RV. Would love to have this Gentleman back on in 6-12 months.
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GCStarted slow, I thought, but he hit his stride and it made for a great interview.
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srGreat interview. Informative, clear and concise
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rrWell done as always Ed, yes please have Mark back. You guys provided an excellent chat.
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RMDamn this was really informative and educational! Love it!
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WSVery knowledgeable. Bring him back.
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MCAgree with view on demographics and rates discussed in last 3 minutes. May be starting to see effects of this now.
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GPI assume you’re playing the steepeners via ED spreads, correct?