Bitter, Destructive Civil War is the Real Black Swan for China

Published on
November 4th, 2016
22 minutes

Bitter, Destructive Civil War is the Real Black Swan for China

Le Club B ·
Featuring TL Tsim

Published on: November 4th, 2016 • Duration: 22 minutes

Hong Kong-based political analyst TL Tsim has the inside perspective on China to understand the real relationship between the two countries and capital flows for the rest of the world. In this special Le Club B, TL looks ahead to the end of the Sino British Joint Declaration in 2047 and back to the history of Chinese dynasties for clues on the likely power struggles to come.


  • AO
    Akbar O.
    3 September 2019 @ 11:39
    He is really a wise man and have deep understanding in chinese history and culture. It would be great if we have an extensive interview
  • AB
    Alain B.
    1 September 2019 @ 17:15
    So insightful and forward looking. Would be great if Real Vision could get an update from him in the current context!
  • se
    steve e.
    25 June 2019 @ 02:27
    Smart dude, he does a great interview.
  • AJ
    Andrew J.
    13 December 2017 @ 02:34
    Great insights from somebody on the ground with deep understanding of the China market and culture. Now that we are over a year on, an update on TL's views would be fascinating.
  • js
    j s.
    1 July 2017 @ 20:17
    Brilliant interview; very unique.
  • DY
    Damian Y.
    11 January 2017 @ 06:00
    Very interesting interview.
  • MM
    MZ M.
    7 November 2016 @ 05:24
    96% of Hong Kong Youth disapprove of Pro-Bejing leader...Hmmnnn Being a bit of a problem solver myself, I would like to propose a trade deal with China-Hong Kong. USA will provide you with three young Bernie Sanders supporters for every single one of the Hong Kong youth of the 96% - and just to sweeten the pot - U.S. will throw in some "older" B.S. supporters for free..... just a thought i think its a Win-Win!
  • LC
    Liliana C.
    6 November 2016 @ 10:58
    The insight on his fears are unique and certainly beilivable. He's somewhat dismissive of capital flight and very dismissive of popular uprisings. Immediate and present danger is coup/power struggle within ccp. Interesting stuff.
  • SP
    Steve P.
    5 November 2016 @ 23:37
    Great perspective on the Chines question. Just a note re the "Comments' and occasionally a video - as RV is already a very professional product, I'm certain many subscribers would like to see the issue of language usage monitored in this forum and interviews as well. Color me old fashioned, but I don't subscribe to the need to lower standards to the lowest common denominator. Profanities are slowly creeping into the forum - a real shame as it has managed to avoid this until recently. Lets keep RV a place that we can reference as a learned forum devoid of trash talk that the use of profanities often leads to.
  • PD
    Philip D.
    5 November 2016 @ 20:14
    My 2 cents worth:When governments feel threatened internally or through a populist uprising; war is often an easy distraction. The scary thing which I consider a major difference between western govt's. going to war and the Chinese govt. going to war (Potentially already happening: ) is the support it might receive form it's masses. Imagine seeing a protest (in China) like in the US or Europe on the scale seen during the Iraq/Afghanistan invasion. Unlikely! In short the Chinese masses could be more easily swayed towards the situation (war propaganda) in the heat of the moment. A great portion of this is merely due to the state control of information which trickles to it's masses.
  • RB
    Rob B.
    5 November 2016 @ 19:31
    Good framework and perspective on how change in power in China is historically different from other ruling powers. I would not be surprised if this gets Real Vision banned from China, b/c discussing this topic is a really sensitive issue for the party. I appreciate the diversity Real Vision brings in content. Please keep it up! Thanks
  • BS
    Barry S.
    5 November 2016 @ 09:35
    Superb synthesis #historyrhymes
  • LW
    Leoterado W.
    5 November 2016 @ 04:26
    Did he say Hapsburg empire lasts more than 800years? Didn't quite understand that part. Always thought that the Zhou dynasty is the longest in China and the Roman Empire is the longest iin the world.
  • DS
    David S.
    5 November 2016 @ 02:57
    From a power perspective, if Hong Kong cannot show many powerful reasons for the Chinese Communist party to accept such a divergent population, Hong Kong will be completely adsorbed into Mainland China on or before 2047. This is only based on human nature and the nature of power; not on any personal insight into Chinese politics. DLS
  • WM
    Will M.
    4 November 2016 @ 21:40
    Very good indeed. Great insight by a very suave and thoughtful expert into the local situation in China & Hong Kong. Thanks!!
  • YG
    Yang G.
    4 November 2016 @ 20:48
    well, fuck. this is terrifying.... Also, if realvisionTV is banned from China because of this video, I will be really pissed.
  • LK
    Lisa K.
    4 November 2016 @ 18:34
    Wow, something I never considered 1) China breaking up, 2) Unpeacefully over a long period of time.
  • MS
    Matt S.
    4 November 2016 @ 17:34
    That guy is so suave! Nice shirt collars. Nice tie. Nice tie knot. Nice collar bar. Good suit. Nice glasses. Good hair. Oh! And interesting talk about China too!
  • TS
    Tim S.
    4 November 2016 @ 17:17
    Great insight, would love speakers such as this for every country. Wonderful insight into history.
  • CC
    Charnes C.
    4 November 2016 @ 15:41
    Great interview. More perspective from the Far East please. There's an old joke that goes some thing like this...."Don't worry about China invading other countries. The Chinese are busy killing themselves" ....I'm ethnic no racism. Just read the War of Three Kingdoms..."From many become one and from one become many"
  • PK
    Paul K. | Contributor
    4 November 2016 @ 14:53
    Wonderful, big picture perspective on the concerns that many of us have about the future of HK
  • AG
    Alex G.
    4 November 2016 @ 14:42
    Very informative, much appreciated