A Lighthouse Amid the Fog – Live with Danielle DiMartino Booth

Published on
October 22nd, 2020
Duration
61 minutes


A Lighthouse Amid the Fog – Live with Danielle DiMartino Booth

Live ·
Featuring Danielle DiMartino Booth

Published on: October 22nd, 2020 • Duration: 61 minutes

Real Vision co-founder and CEO, Raoul Pal, welcomes Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence, to forecast future economic growth and and the fate of fiscal stimulus going forward. With volatility rising and the recovery on ever shakier ground, DiMartino Booth clarifies the macro picture by looking at price action in the bond markets. Pal and DiMartino Booth will exchange their views on how markets will respond to these possibilities and explore the various potential paths that the economic recovery could take. DiMartino Booth will also be answering questions from Real Vision Plus members.

Comments

Transcript

  • LS
    Luke S.
    2 November 2020 @ 17:21
    Quick clarification.... Democrats controlled the Texas State Congress all the way from the end of Civil War reconstruction to the year 2000. On the national level it has been republican since 1976, but on the state and municipal level it is traditionally democrat.
  • DW
    Dean W.
    1 November 2020 @ 22:43
    Did she really “serving my country at the Fed”? I sure hope she meant that sarcastically! Good interview overall.
  • NI
    Nate I.
    1 November 2020 @ 06:11
    This is what Dr. Kellogg, then executive officer of the CA Medical Board, had to say about the efficacy of masks in the wake of the 1918 flu pandemic: "The masks, contrary to expectation, were worn cheerfully and universally, and also, contrary to expectation of what should follow under such circumstances, no effect on the epidemic curve was to be seen. Something was plainly wrong with our hypotheses." Please, don't take my word for it. Read it yourself. https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.10.1.34 Nothing has changed. Unfortunately, there has only been one RCT in modern times. That RCT in a Vietnam hospital found that wearing a cloth mask was likely worse than doing nothing which is exactly what I would expect from applying basic logic. It's effectively using chicken wire to keep out mosquitoes, but that chicken wire impairs respiration. Sure, if everyone had a properly fitted N95 class respirator, goggles, proper fit, and adequate training, that would be helpful. This nonsense about wearing a t-shirt over your face to prevent cv19 spread is beyond ridiculous. Even the largely corrupt WHO, supposedly our fountain of truth, has said that much.
  • FH
    Frederik H.
    30 October 2020 @ 13:21
    Not sure if Im asking the right question but here it goes. Raoul and Danielle give February/ March as the time where we will see how things will play out. I understand the big macro thesis Raoul gives and but Im wondering how the kick of looks like. What the different (or most likely) scenario's of the insolvency phase are on the stock market, gold, bitcoin in the short term. Should we expect a crash as we saw in March or is this phase something completely different? Like a run on big tech stocks, gold and bitcoin?
  • RN
    Rajaram N.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:23
    Great video. I think Danielle DiMartino is absolutely great on her interviews. But Texas didnt stop being democratic in 1976... completely wrong. It was democratic till early 90s and Raoul was right... so much for Danielle claiming she "knows her state". I know my state!
  • TM
    Tom M.
    28 October 2020 @ 23:13
    One of the best episodes I've seen on Real Vision. Raul brings up there topics we need to hear and learn. Danielle is not only brilliant, but emits passion. Tune in and hear this perspective.
  • BF
    Ben F.
    28 October 2020 @ 20:01
    fantastic interview. so much info.
  • BT
    Brian T.
    28 October 2020 @ 03:13
    Danielle has passion!! I'm not so sure that she can predict the future any better than the rest of us, but always seems to make me a little more gloomy about the future-(or more realistic ?) - remember when she was with Chris talking about the glut of autos sitting on lots across the US? Though I truly appreciate the insight and knowledge displayed, I'm pretty sure she's more in line with institutional type investors who can use her predictions and perspective in a wholesale sort of ?trading. Too bad she didn't bloviate on her perspective of bitcoin- " I know you are all over as the crypto guy"- but no indication if she has tasted the koolaid.... Once again, always great to hear RP !!! - best ever !! God Bless, BT
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    27 October 2020 @ 18:20
    $15.15 in January 2000, $142 today. 11.24% annual inflation rate for nearly 21 years in the cost to purchase $1 in interest, based on the 10Y. Hoi polloi wouldn't stand for annual price increases of double digits for 21 years on milk, bread and gas, would we? Yet the Fed has been serving it up as an elixir for 2 decades plus.
  • JG
    James G.
    27 October 2020 @ 13:46
    She poppin' yellow jackets or what!!!!
  • AP
    A P.
    24 October 2020 @ 18:21
    Quick clarification. UBI does NOT paying people to stay home. UBI gives every adult a baseline income. There are zero incentives to leave work (except for working parents who choose to stay home, students that go back to school or caregivers). Every dollar you make over the UBI goes to the income earner. It is clearly redistributive, but it is NOT socialism. Everyone gets the same ... it's not redistribution 'according to needs'. People need a SERIOUS amount of education on this. Ultimately, it is the libertarian solution to many of the structural issues we are dealing with today. While it may not work ... we won't know until we are able to discussing it smartly. Ideological blinders are getting in the way of a serious meaningful educated discussion of UBI.
    • GA
      Gerald A.
      24 October 2020 @ 19:13
      Society is evolving toward neo-feudalism. The stability of neofeudalism requires a little QE-for-the-people or UBI, just enough to keep the debt serfs from revolting against the oligarchal overlords who use their control of the monetary and financial system to buy up all the useful assets and to create private rentier streams for the favoured classes, UBI is part of the behavioral economics of the totalitarian neofeudal control mechanism.
    • AP
      A P.
      25 October 2020 @ 00:16
      ,,, and here I thought it was just an easy way to keep people from having to starve without distortionary externalities. :D
    • LK
      Lauri K.
      26 October 2020 @ 13:18
      Giving everyone free money will lead to a cycle of inflation. The marginal "shit job" has to be incentivised to a higher pay in the same proportion as it is currently with the baseline social security. This will then lead to production being more expensive with the proportion the salary is increased. As production is more expensive, the UBI needs to be raised to meet the price inflation. This is an endless cycle, which will just leave everyone worse off, than without UBI. Giving free stuff or free money didn't work in the Roman empire nor it didn't work in the Soviet union, so why would it work now?
    • AP
      A P.
      27 October 2020 @ 02:18
      People are given 'free stuff' all the time. As a society, we've already decided that people won't die from starvation or be denied what they need to survive. Really, all we're discussing is what is the best delivery mechanism. The current welfare system has high admin costs and has serious distortionary effects (few people that get on disability ever get off, for instance ... and are disincentivized to ever work again). UBI addresses some of these issues more effectively. If we decide to let people die of starvation again, of course ... UBI serves no purpose in that societal framework.
  • JK
    Jeanne K.
    26 October 2020 @ 22:07
    This was a great video! Time to tame the Fed.
  • AG
    Amol G.
    26 October 2020 @ 18:05
    If no one else is going to say it, I will: Danielle DiMartino Booth is a f*ckin gangster. Her insight and knowledge is unmatched. Great interview, Raoul.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    26 October 2020 @ 13:13
    Excellent - appreciate Danielle's simple honesty and great points!
  • YO
    Yoshitaka O.
    26 October 2020 @ 12:53
    Would it be possible to provide captions for this video please?
  • AM
    Aaron M.
    25 October 2020 @ 10:37
    What was the ‘Blackrock fine print’???
    • AM
      Aaron M.
      25 October 2020 @ 10:37
      Forgot to add...great interview!
    • KE
      Karim E.
      25 October 2020 @ 20:27
      Fed authorizing Blackrock to purchase equity etf on their behalf. Hasn’t been used....so far
    • AM
      Aaron M.
      26 October 2020 @ 06:10
      Thank you Karim!
  • DP
    Duane P.
    26 October 2020 @ 04:19
    Excellent interview!
  • JL
    J L.
    26 October 2020 @ 03:36
    Investors don't think the Fed is creating fake inflation. They think massive fiscal in 2021 will create actual inflation, and inflation-bought growth, through direct currency delivered to consumer and small business bank accounts. Monetary policy can create asset inflation, but not economic growth, because Fed liquidity doesn't get the banks to lend or consumers to spend. Mainly it gets public companies to borrow cheap and buy back shares. The fact that monetary policy only creates asset inflation, not real inflation, is well established by now. But fiscal, direct fiscal, is a whole new game. What we saw in Q12020 was only the first round. More trillions in fiscal (helicopter money direct to consumers and businesses) could create growth, and inflation, because it money direct into the hands of those who will spend it, which means instant velocity. Japan never tried that, by the way. They never did direct fiscal. If they did, maybe the story would've been different. And if U.S. congress goes nuts, and buys growth via direct fiscal at the cost of inflation, deflationary tech and demographic trends will help constrain that inflation, letting congress do even more. And if millions of small businesses die, guess what. That is more profits for the winner-take-all survivors. Fewer restaraunts means more profit for Chipotle and Walmart. Fewer stores means more profits for Target and Amazon. On and on. This is why the Fed isn't the one to watch on this front. It's congress. So guess what happens if Dems take back the White House and Congress? Fiscal stimulus direct consumers and businesses —> Actual velocity and growth at the cost of inflation —> Inflation constrained by tech and demographic trends —> Struggling SMEs equating to more profit for winner-take-all cos. Get off the monetary focus. Think about the fiscal that is coming. That is the big lever now. And we haven't seen it before. Other than the first round in Q12020, which, look what it did. More is on the way. If you miss fiscal, and the net impact of unprecedented fiscal -- it is quite possible, even likely, to get everything else wrong.
    • JL
      J L.
      26 October 2020 @ 04:14
      Chipotle and McDonalds rather. This also goes back to some of Mike Green's stuff on the pandemic killing off vulnerable entities with economic co-morbidities. To the extent that happens in the real economy with small and medium-sized businesses, publicly traded winners can benefit by expanding their revenues and profits in the post-Covid landscape.
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    26 October 2020 @ 03:46
    Joe has some shovel ready jobs left over from Obama... at least 3 trillion worth.... and he is bringing Solyndra out of mothballs. YEEHAW !!!
  • PP
    Patrick P.
    26 October 2020 @ 03:20
    And the Fed is hiding the price signal??? Is that suppose to be news? They have been hiding the price signal since Alan Greenspan Circa 1987.... at least!
  • tr
    tom r.
    24 October 2020 @ 21:44
    Sounds like there is an assumption that Biden may win. I think lots and lots of people have forgotten that Hillary lost because the polls were bogus. Why didn't you discuss a possible red wave and sleepy Joe gets his head handed to him. Then republicans gain many seats in the house. Since the market knows the future and we don't, I think the world is in for a huge surprise. That would explain why you are so confused about the economy. Assuming we will have a blue wave is a major mistake. My bet is that the swamp gets drained and we see some in orange jump suits. When has any candidate ever seen the massive truck, boat, car rallies all over the country for a president. Lots of us are VERY optimistic Trump gets re-elected by a landslide which could change everything. Maybe that is what the market is telling us.
    • DM
      Don M.
      25 October 2020 @ 19:59
      Good luck with that
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      26 October 2020 @ 03:04
      tom... your lips to God's ears....
  • JK
    John K.
    24 October 2020 @ 22:09
    After watching the full interview, thank you Raoul for asking about the socialism red herring. I don’t think it’s as doomsday as people say it is. It’s bad but it’s not country crumbling bad. I also don’t think Biden is going to be as socialist as he’s being made out to be
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      26 October 2020 @ 03:02
      John... have you ever heard the comment "head in the sand"?
  • LH
    Luis H.
    25 October 2020 @ 18:33
    I wish you had a 0.75 x play button so I could listen to Daniella at normal voice speed.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      26 October 2020 @ 02:57
      Way too much caffeine....can you imagine taking her on a first date?
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    25 October 2020 @ 21:23
    so this is what is happening with the mortgage holidays in Oz right not. From end of Sep mortgage holders were supposed to start paying off their mortgages and credit cards and rents. All states except for Victoria. Many people expected to see thousands of foreclosed sales as Job Keeper and Job Seeker (forms of free money) were reduced and there are no jobs. But this is what is playing out right in front of our eyes. Very few people are being sent to the wall and those are the ones that have absolutely no hope of servicing their debts plus their don't have any or much equity in their assets so banks want to ensure they don't lose. Strategy is banks are extending no repayments for another 3 months and then they review their loan books again. In 3 months banks hope few people will find jobs and start repaying their loans while those who can't and have large enough equity on their houses will be given another 3 month extension. Those that got close to loosing all equity and still can't start servicing their loans will be forced to sell. This way our banks avoid creating crash in Real Estate prices. Such strategy will work if the economy starts creating jobs (well paid jobs as Australians have second largest private debt in the world) and Real Estate prices don't start falling fast.
    • CD
      C D.
      26 October 2020 @ 02:19
      Based in OZ Nikola. Buy-side focused and across real estate in an equity/credit capacity. Further, the recent Budget at best bets on "people" betting on the "economy". I think once the aspirational rhetoric falls away because little is materialising, a catalyst will emerge - watching "PrivateCapEx" and "Unemployment" but more importantly "Underemployment". Timings, sometime post first quarter, or, post-election. If the LNP are trending in the media they'll go to election sooner rather than later. To Booth's point, otherwise, it's a "pile of insolvent crap". At the moment cracks are appearing mostly in "commercial". That's before geopolitics. Very much a fantasy, a "nothing burger".
  • TW
    Todd W.
    26 October 2020 @ 00:12
    I am definitely reading her book, amazing interview.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    25 October 2020 @ 20:41
    protected universe. You just described the Australian residential Real Estate. btw Danielle, consider it stolen.
  • JB
    Jamie B.
    25 October 2020 @ 12:43
    This interview really changed my mind on how hyper switched on, Danielle really is. My loss in the past, glad to be a new fan of hers. Such an insightful discussion Raoul.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    25 October 2020 @ 08:46
    Incredible one. We need more of Danielle as interviewee. She is really sharp and one of her videos is more valuable and thousands of any other. High expectations for this interview have been all met and they were very high. Great one!
  • TB
    Terence B.
    25 October 2020 @ 01:46
    Raoul asked Danielle about why the price of Bonds are being held down. I'm still researching Raoul's bond trade recommendation and I'd like to better understand Danielle's view. Can someone explain her response? Thanks!
  • CK
    Chris K.
    24 October 2020 @ 23:13
    Love Danielle's straight talk
    • AW
      Aaron W.
      25 October 2020 @ 01:31
      This was Danielle at her best, excellent!
  • MD
    Matt D.
    24 October 2020 @ 23:41
    Great interview Raoul and Danielle. Thank you! No nonsense and insightful. Valentine's Day DDay. A few big unknowns till then. Can't say trading is boring... Look forward to more detail or follow-up from this interview. Cheers.
  • DS
    David S.
    24 October 2020 @ 15:18
    Because the West handled the pandemic so poorly - governments and individuals on all sides, I see a 30 - 40% chance for continued negative GDP and deflation regardless of government action for several years. "The fault dear Brutus..." DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      24 October 2020 @ 22:05
      To clarify the US nominal or real quarterly GDP will not exceed 4Q2019 for several years if we are lucky. I am not referring to over-hyped GDP increase/decrease over prior year or prior month depressed quarters. That is for politicians. I am talking about getting back to where we were before the pandemic. Although it is tempting, it is not logical to look at prior economic recessions as a guide. The better the governments and/or people handled the pandemic, the faster they will have a chance to get to a new normal. I am not sure what a new normal will be. The American consumer was a major driving force in the world economy before the pandemic. The new normal will not look like the old normal. A paradigm is taking place. DLS
  • JK
    John K.
    24 October 2020 @ 21:35
    I’m about half way through and I have to say I love Danielle. She is a straight shooter and wasn’t afraid to call the current political and economic situation for what it is. I may not agree with her about everything but respect the hell out of her conviction. This is looking like it’s going to be a top 5 interview for me. She just had so much passion when she speaks.
  • DS
    David S.
    24 October 2020 @ 21:19
    Raoul, re: Blue Texas, perhaps you're thinking of the brief period in the early 90s when Ann Richards was governor.
  • WW
    William W.
    24 October 2020 @ 21:12
    Would like to hear thoughts if there is a red wave Nov-3rd?
  • LB
    Lenska B.
    24 October 2020 @ 20:55
    5 stars for this interview. Love her insight on real estate. Please have her back.
  • AH
    Alexandra H.
    24 October 2020 @ 19:19
    My God, DDB is smart. Incredibly interesting, insightful and frank interview. Please have her on again soon!
  • AP
    A P.
    24 October 2020 @ 17:37
    If the notion of debt cycles is true, what is the point to a 'recession' where leverages actually increase at the end of it? Recessions have to last long enough for actual deleverage to happen in the economy.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      24 October 2020 @ 17:55
      Right to Raul’s question. How long can MMT go without reconciliation of the balance sheet with the income statement? We are in shark infested waters.
    • AP
      A P.
      24 October 2020 @ 18:28
      As I understand it, MMT is a different framework to understand our 'fiat monetary system'. Under MMT, the notion of 'government debt' is an oxymoron. That said, even in our traditional Keynsian system, recessions have to extend out until (short term cyclical) deleverage can actually be accomplished. This is the primary case against this ridiculous 'V' shaped recovery narrative that we're being sold on. Know anyone that's actually paid down debt these past 6 months?
  • VB
    Vikram B.
    24 October 2020 @ 12:41
    Excellent! But it really bothered me that both of them couldn't explain why this show can't just keep going on ie "the bond vigilantes will finally come out and test the Fed's ability to keep the yield curve under control" seems a weak explanation on how the fundamentals will eventually assert themselves in this debt bubble that keeps on going. So that makes me think this bubble of everything has still got legs to run.
    • MS
      Michael S.
      24 October 2020 @ 18:03
      I don’t think any of us really knows. How long can MMT run? When does the balance sheet finally crush the income statement because there is too much debt. The economic social experiment continues. From my point of view: We are at the point of no return. We had 10 years of “expansion” with rising debt levels beyond economic output. Financial engineering. Financial Asset inflation at the cost of more debt not economic growth and health. Where is the tipping point? When defaults increase at a faster pace then debt can be issued. Debt is only a temporary “cash flow” fix. Capitalize outstanding payables is a short term unsustainable financial tool.
  • MS
    Michael S.
    24 October 2020 @ 17:54
    How lucky we are to get such an inside view of the Federal Reserve mindset from extraordinarily keen sharp minds. Thank you Danielle and Raul. Well done. We will reckon with the debt that has not been used for truly productive purposes. Innovation and efficiency can only take us so far. Eventually if the rate of debt growth is not matched with productivity growth it will drag us down.
  • PJ
    Paul J.
    24 October 2020 @ 16:28
    Looking Beautiful.
  • JI
    JWD I.
    24 October 2020 @ 14:12
    This would be a great interview to do a deeper dive on, either with Steve or Roger.
  • RY
    Roy Y.
    24 October 2020 @ 13:10
    Fantastic interview.
  • BA
    Bob A.
    24 October 2020 @ 07:52
    I have been a subscriber for years and this is easily in the top 10 of best RV interviews I have seen. I should be quick to add that she has a lot of stiff competition because there have been many epic interviews. I think you should interview her every 6 months. She is very insightful.
  • SN
    Stefan N.
    24 October 2020 @ 06:22
    Great interview but not sure it generated actionable ideas for me as a retail investor which for me is the point of watching this interview.
  • BM
    Bryan M.
    24 October 2020 @ 05:01
    Kudos to Raoul for getting the best out of Danielle, who proved to me at least that she is a force to be reckoned with! In other words I learned a lot so thanks to you both for that.
  • GB
    Gregory B.
    24 October 2020 @ 03:13
    Outstanding.
  • BS
    Brian S.
    24 October 2020 @ 03:03
    Wow, epic intro!
  • ES
    Eric S.
    23 October 2020 @ 23:45
    Great interview! Couple quick follow up items. Would be good to see if Danielle has view on dollar. Didn't really address it directly. Also She spoke about the fine print at Black Rock but couldn't hear what she was explaining at 17:20. I hope she answers. Thanks!
  • JM
    John M.
    23 October 2020 @ 23:17
    Wow! Great interview.
  • WS
    William S.
    23 October 2020 @ 23:14
    Always entertaining - but she brings up a lot of salient points.
  • nw
    nicholas w.
    23 October 2020 @ 22:57
    1976. She's right of course... Its not often I'm impressed- but God this Woman is a Live wire. Sharp as a Razor .
  • GA
    Gary A.
    23 October 2020 @ 22:42
    One of the best interviews
  • JS
    Jon S.
    22 October 2020 @ 22:49
    Cannot wait... :)