A Tug-Of-War Between Themes – Live with Louis Llanes

Published on
August 10th, 2020
Duration
68 minutes

Navigating Turbulent Waters – Live with Peter Boockvar


A Tug-Of-War Between Themes – Live with Louis Llanes

Live ·
Featuring Louis Llanes

Published on: August 10th, 2020 • Duration: 68 minutes

Dichotomies abound in today’s markets. The short term macro outlook says one thing while the long term says another. Dislocations between large and small cap companies are running rampant as indexation methods obscure proper valuations. All the while, concerns about a potential second wave of COVID-19 stoke fear among market participants. How does one trade such a duplicitous environment? This is what we will be discussing on today's Real Vision Live with Louis Llanes, CFA, CMT, and founder of Wealthnet Investments. He will sitting down with Max Wiethe to break down his holistic approach to investing while explaining how participants could profit from this exceptional period in global financial markets. Check out Louis' chart deck here: https://rvtv.io/3iDMkHV

Comments

Transcript

  • SG
    Sashi G.
    25 August 2020 @ 09:14
    To add a counter to Max's point - investing in the market does benefit the company (not just trading between investors) because the rise in market cap benefits the "currency" of the company to use it for more growth/investment - as Louis pointed out.
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    25 August 2020 @ 09:03
    Good to see someone on RV finally mentioning commodities as the hidden trade waiting to happen. Commodities as an asset class is neglected quite a bit on RV I feel. Louis and Mish (Schneider) are two who mention it in the course of other things. But commodities lack focus on RV - maybe a reflection of the investor malaise in general for this class.
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    25 August 2020 @ 08:07
    Always enjoy Louis on RV. Very consistent in the quality of his presentations over the years. You may agree or not but he has a very clear thesis for his views. A bit surprised at the lesser number of comments on this video as well as the number of ratings. I wonder why.
  • TP
    Tillman P.
    12 August 2020 @ 15:41
    super informative and enjoyable.
  • ES
    Edward S.
    11 August 2020 @ 19:38
    Louis has a great attitude about what he does. Fantastic interview.
  • Sv
    Sid v.
    11 August 2020 @ 17:10
    excellent interview, thank you
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    11 August 2020 @ 09:57
    Fed will buy ETF's ( at a lower price ). I think all ETFs will be bailed out next selloff.
  • BR
    Brian R.
    10 August 2020 @ 21:39
    there have been many good shows on since I signed up, this one was up there with the best - telling it how it is. Thank you. I got lots out of this but something that came to mind was that it would be great to get someone on the program who can talk more about the commodity complex I mean one's we haven't heard too much about yet like nickel, Al, etc and I mean a bit broader, big companies and small and explorers (there was a guest on juniors a couple of months back I know). Some explorers or juniors had very high prices in 2011 and they are at near zero now but look good to me and I feel if we are going into a commodity boom, whether it be now or a little later when more QE comes or the M2 really kicks in it would be great to be loaded up with ideas other than the crowded trades of Au and Ag. No criticism intended just more trade ideas for what may lie ahead and a disclaimer from me I have idea what I am talking about and yes I have already speculated in a bit of Ni/Cu exploration who look solid to me in the good quality Ni but I am wondering if I should pump more. Thanks again
    • MT
      Mike T.
      11 August 2020 @ 00:59
      If you're going to rely on others for ideas its most probable over time you'll end up really frustrated. One tip, do not get in the habit of thinking being in 'crowded' trades is necessarily a bad idea as crowded underlyings often have optimal liquidity e.g. SPY, A good place to start with trying to formulate your own ideas, is filter out, dismiss anything with bad, illiquid underlyings with wide spreads, maybe also take it a step further anything without highly liquid Options also steer clear. An approximate guide to optimum Options liquidity pull up Monthly Option Chain for whatever Symbol you're interested and look for Spreads no worse than $0.10 wide, must have multiple strikes with Open Interest in the thousands, at least one strike with daily volume in the thousands, lastly within an Option Chain if there are any strikes at all with zero bid walk away. In looking for ideas liquidity comes first, second and third in priority. If taking the Opinions from Chartists newsletters, and many do, ask the author if making a forecast of future price movement to confirm the mathematical % probability of being correct and really study their response very carefully.
    • BR
      Brian R.
      11 August 2020 @ 03:28
      thanks Mike T, handy tips duly noted
  • SM
    Stephen M.
    11 August 2020 @ 00:38
    Excellent interview. His use of stops as it relates to multiple timeframe analysis was clear and helpful. I would be much interested in seeing more of his technical framework.
    • MT
      Mike T.
      11 August 2020 @ 01:09
      Using stops for profit taking purposes is fine. Using so called protective stops to limit losses is not so good as over the long term, keep records of your trades will likely show protective stop losses are frequently $$ transactionally very inefficient i.e the 'fills' can be of very bad quality, particularly if you stray into using instruments with poor liquidity.
    • LL
      Louis L. | Contributor
      11 August 2020 @ 01:45
      Mike, maybe I can clarify. We have done extensive real time investing and quantitative simulations to validate risk management protocols. When I mentioned “stops”, I don’t mean resting stop orders in the market. Those will slip you up. I’m talking about predefined risk levels that require action to scale out. Most of the best traders have risk management protocols that require an exit to limit losses and to let their profits run. The key is to not place your risk levels too close to the entries and to position size appropriately. It also requires an understanding of changes in volatility. The mathematics of good investing require your average gain to be much higher than your average loss. Risk management protocols help you manage that relationship especially if you are dealing with diverse instruments. This allows for your hit rate to fall at times and still have reasonable results. If you are only trading stocks, our research indicates that it’s imperative to have a general market overlay as well to change exit rules and defer new entries. If you trade diverse futures instruments risk management rules can be quite different because the correlation among instruments is lower. Scaling in and out helps when based on your signal strength.
  • tr
    tom r.
    10 August 2020 @ 23:10
    A truly great interview! Lots of common sense and great charts when you could see them in focus. Max is a great interviewer as well. As usual though, whoever is charge of keeping things in focus is either drunk, desperately needs new glasses or is a relative of a higher up at Real Vision. Why can't you fix this? It is ridiculous! At least Louis was always in focus.
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    10 August 2020 @ 23:06
    Good talk good info good audio recording good to hear a fellow Coloradan's mannerisms. I upgraded to the next tier for this and Im happy with my purchase. Has anyone asked about calendar invites for the upcoming RV Live talks? Super easy to implement and super valuable so talks arent missed.
  • MM
    Michael M.
    10 August 2020 @ 21:01
    Thanks, good information and specific ideas to consider.

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yuskois the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets. Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office.Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation. Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authoredThe Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot onThe NewYork TimesBest Sellers list. Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offeringwhichutilizesa true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures,and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovativeways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring.James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy. Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channelwatched by over 80,000 people.In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years. He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences. Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although hebegan his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full timejournalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of humaninterest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched theDefiancepodcast andDefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst.He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clientsand former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients.Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14.At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”)for the firm’s clients.Prior to that,Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006.While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in whichhe aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University.He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltemoversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development. Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem. Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.