Ask Me Anything – With the Real Vision Editorial Team

Published on
May 28th, 2020
Duration
90 minutes

The Ultimate Dichotomy – Live with Mish Schneider


Ask Me Anything – With the Real Vision Editorial Team

Live ·
Featuring Real Vision Editorial Team

Published on: May 28th, 2020 • Duration: 90 minutes

Global Recession: What’s Next? has been an incredible three weeks of programming. We’ve asked the question “what’s next?” of legends including Hugh Hendry, Lacy Hunt, Howard Marks, William White, Mike Novogratz, and many more more. Now it’s time for you to ask the questions. Members of the Real Vision editorial team will be answering your questions live, from 11am ET.

Comments

Transcript

  • JK
    Johan K.
    2 June 2020 @ 06:57
    Thanks for the great content. One question I have is: How exactly, in detailed terms, does the mechanics of Fed asset buying work? Some of your interviewees have said that they cannot actually create liquidity with asset buying (QE) because it is only an asset swap which leads to bank reserves going up, but these reserves have no effect on the bank's ability to create new credit. I would have thought that if the Fed buys assets from banks, the banks get electronic cash on their balance sheets which they can spend or lend out. But it seems like I am misunderstanding something here. Could an expert please explain this process of asset buying in accounting terms of what transactions are actually involved and what is the nature of the assets that change hands in this kind of asset buying operations? Thanks.
    • sm
      sam m.
      3 June 2020 @ 02:07
      Say Central Bank buys $100 Govt bond from a bank (or a customer of a bank)... Bank Balance Sheet Reserves (A) + 100 Bond/Customer Deposit (L) -100 CB BS Reserves (L) -100 Bond (A) +100 These reserves can't be lent to customers because when a customer is loaned money a new loan is created. ie say you borrow $100 for a mortgage Bank BS Mortgage (A) +100 Customer Deposit (L) -100 The act of extending you a mortgage creates the deposit that you can transfer to the owner of the house you are buying (and they may bank with your bank or another bank). Bank reserves only exist between the CB, the Govt and the Banks. Banks can lend them to each other for managing net settlements since they don't know if they are losing deposits to another bank (e.g. you might buy a house from a seller that banks with a different bank, so your bank would at the margin need to borrow reserves from another bank). Banks can't influence the overall volume of reserves ... that is determined entirely by the CB buying and selling assets with the banks (or Govt). And typically the CB will buy/sell Govt bonds to influence reserves in these market operations.
    • KC
      K C.
      3 June 2020 @ 12:57
      Sam. In the example you gave, what does the amount of reserve have to do with the same bank’s willingness or ability to lend out the mortgage? I recall guests on RV saying that these reserve requirements no longer mean anything and therefore reserves no longer affect money flow in the real economy.
  • BT
    Ben T.
    3 June 2020 @ 12:10
    Loved this, great forum. Would make a fantastic monthly feature!
  • SW
    Simon W.
    2 June 2020 @ 20:07
    Hi Ed, you were looking for ideas for what we want to see, here are a couple suggestions: 1. Improved curation of the videos. Currently it's difficult to search and really deep dive into a topic - if I was interested in a deep dive into all the segments that touch on the Canadian Dollar, or if I was interested in Australian Real Estate. How do I find the -all- content and the direct time in the interview where I can see this topic? This may seem crass, but I would recommend looking curation more like some of the pornographic video websites, where they curate by with very elaborate tagging across many dimensions. 2. Analysis and status updates of the various theories/narratives in Macro. Perhaps the macro world and real vision have a handful of popular narratives, where do we stand week to week on those narratives. For example, do we continue to be on track with Milkshake theory, signs of inflation/deflation, Bull Gold, Bull Bitcoin, etc etc.. 3. I signed up for real vision because I'd like to get more of an understanding of what's going on int he world. Perhaps it would also help in investing as well. However, I haven't worked in the finance industry as a career. It would help people like me to understand how place positions vs. the theories out there. For example if Raul and Brent think the Dollar is strong vs the Euro, is there a summary of what are examples of the positions to place This would help me continue to learn. Thank you for all you do. S.
  • ea
    edwin a.
    2 June 2020 @ 19:05
    "Inflation? Deflation? Yes." Makes sense. The period at the end of and just after WWI (1919-1921) had rapid, intense inflation, deflation, and then a long bubble to 1929. So, yes, anything could happen...
  • VS
    Ville S.
    2 June 2020 @ 18:27
    Could you guys add a CET time on the upcoming live videos??? Would help us based in Europe...
  • KC
    Kaiwen C.
    2 June 2020 @ 14:35
    Can someone please explain what we should be watching in the bond market to form a view on deflation / inflation? Roger mentioned we should be paying attention particularly to the short term duration, I’m not clear on what this means. Thanks
    • KC
      Kaiwen C.
      2 June 2020 @ 14:40
      Is the idea that in a deflationary environment, we can expect bond prices to rise because 1) interest rates will remain zero bound and 2) deflation means the principal repaid in the future costs more. Therefore, the signal to watch is bond yields remaining low and close to zero?
  • SO
    Shads O.
    2 June 2020 @ 04:03
    Thanks so much for explaining how Fed "prints money" and the deflation(we were in debt-driven demand pre-COVID) narrative. Super useful for me. Cheers!
  • HH
    Hudson H.
    1 June 2020 @ 23:52
    Roger you mentioned sterling weakness as a likely byproduct of brexit...Im sure you have data and rationale for that view and my apologies for not studying any of your work on the topic. But Rob's piece with Bill Cambell touched on the potential for sterling to be viewed as a relative safe haven compared to the euro in a post brexit world. Could you see the same flight to safety dynamic we see pushing the dollar stronger playing out in a more localized way within Europe? Maybe this depends on how negative rates get...Curious to get your thoughts.
  • RK
    Roger K.
    1 June 2020 @ 20:46
    Most of the ppl here are retail traders , people who has non-financial 9-5 jobs. So these interviews seem getting out of control time wise. If you ( real-vision) take this into consideration - Time preservation that would be really commendable.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    1 June 2020 @ 19:42
    Sorry for the late response to Ed’s request for what we might like to see different or additionally in the DB (I watched the “Ask anything” in 3 chunks and didn’t see the request for our input until today). I have been with RV almost since inception and subscribe to Essential, Plus, and Pro—I think the DB has been the most well received Product (other than perhaps Grant’s earlier long version interviews) in RV’s history—the number of viewers and the active comment section as well as the tone and timbre of we RV’ers engagement with the DB product says it all. I thought long and hard about what I could offer for potential change or improvement and the fact is I just think the DB is evolving on it’s own probably by the way the DB team regularly receives input from the active comment section! Those comments are allowing the Team to take the pulse in “real time” of the RV audience and morph accordingly into an improved product without really trying to do. Based upon the excellent input of my fellow RV’ers and the Team’s assiduous upload thereof means there really isn’t anything for me to add. I do however want to point out some very important subtle great things that RV is doing that can always be in the back of the Team’s mind when curating and planning the DB. Probably the most important thing about the RV secret sauce is the juxtaposing of two different views on important topics by two extremely well prepared credentialed Guests. Quick examples include; Mike Green and Raoul on several topics including where the Market might trade, Christophe Ollari and Raoul, and one of my absolute favorites to date, Alex Gurevich and Raoul On the direction of the US $—we are very familiar with Raoul’s firm conviction on the $ and get to hear Alex’s equally firm conviction 180 degree difference....I have loved all of Alex’s interviews and find his views extremely well reasoned and researched (he is the “real deal” credentials wise as well, IMO)...Alex is quite pleasant in manner, but is not afraid to be forceful in his view and counter argument. So many “debates” on other media outlets seem to be tainted by trying to curry favor and agree with each other that a true distillation of the points of view and the well reasoned arguments in favor thereof are lost. Somehow, perhaps through the mutual respect that RV “debaters” have for each other and the fact that each is well credentialed and informed, the RV interactions get much farther into the nuances of the the difference in viewpoints. Sorry to be so long winded in this regard, but I think this subtle civil discussion of dichotomous views is the very essence of the RV experience.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    1 June 2020 @ 18:31
    Great work crew! Love the Daily Briefing!
  • ES
    Edward S.
    31 May 2020 @ 20:52
    Just my opinion for improvement: RV is amazing for learning and keeping up with macro concepts, but as another commenter has mentioned, some of us are perhaps a little too inexperienced to really apply some of this in the market and take full advantage of what we are learning. More content/primers on possible strategies and practical tips to get involved in trades/opportunities as they arise would be a fantastic value-add. Not suggesting this becomes a signal service, but for example when saying something like 'look out for EM currency opportunities' perhaps just fleshing this out more to include possible entries, stops & targets or technical levels etc would help massively. If this is something already on offer in the PRO membership, please let me know as I would happily pay. Many thanks for taking the time to read this and keep up the fantastic content, it really is a brilliant resource.
    • FB
      Frank B.
      1 June 2020 @ 10:14
      Agree. They do this in Pro but still not to the extend and frequency that I would personally like. You said it well that it shouldn't be a signal service but could be a bit more specific.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      1 June 2020 @ 18:14
      Respectfully, I think the matters of implementation are up to the individual. People make many ways to become experts and adept at this. Whether it’s grad school and a full time career or a decade of study and trial and error. Fortunately and unfortunately the field of finance and investing has no shortcuts. Except maybe a 60/40 portfolio with a lot of gold and bitcoin on the side.
  • GM
    Guy M.
    1 June 2020 @ 17:55
    What if central banks along with the fiat banking system start their own digital currency? What happens to the federal reserve bank notes you know the ones underneath the mattress. Does that window close?
  • IP
    IDA P.
    1 June 2020 @ 16:55
    I suggest that you invite Michael Howell of Cross Border Capital
    • IP
      IDA P.
      1 June 2020 @ 17:05
      he is the author of Capital Wars https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9783030392871
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    1 June 2020 @ 16:09
    Excellent. Love this format of a high number of questions, answered by people with different perspectives. Thank you.
  • FB
    Frank B.
    1 June 2020 @ 10:15
    You guys are a fantastic team and Ash did great moderating the conversation. Now need to catch up on a few recent episodes and try watching them in 2x.
  • JW
    John W.
    31 May 2020 @ 06:12
    RV Feedback. At the plus membership level the interviews are great, a lot of good information. At the end of the day however, I feel a bit frustrated that there are no specific trade recommendations, beyond Raoul's big picture plays. These only kick-in at the $3,499 Pro level. I'd like to see the trade portfolio as a separate module that could be added onto the different membership levels so I could have access to the specific actionable trades. I don't necessarily need all the other benefits of a Pro level membership. So I could buy Plus or Plus+Trade Portfolio, something like that. Thank you.
    • JC
      John C.
      31 May 2020 @ 17:23
      I agree but seems like the new pricing tiers are set up so that if you want to be more of a macro-themed trader you simply need to step up to Pro. With the old "Trade Ideas" it was too tricky to manage risk on an ongoing basis after the original video as there was no follow up. Honestly if you're looking to day/swing trade I think RV is not meant for that and you should be subscribing to one of the numerous services such as Hedgeye, Aspen Trading, Tribeca Trade, T3 etc.
    • JW
      John W.
      1 June 2020 @ 07:49
      Thanks John C. As a relative newbie I didn't realize the pricing tiers are new. RV is not about day trading and neither am I. It's a suggestion for RV to consider. Let's see what they think.
  • DF
    David F.
    30 May 2020 @ 23:44
    Guys: you asked what it is that we are looking for. I would like to see a week by week update on the four investment propositions that Raoul has identified as his/best concepts for how to make money by macro thinking/investing. This would be a weekly review of: where are we with gold / where are we with BTC? where are we with the USD trade? where are we with the short EUR/USD trade. Are the macro trends that justified these investments still intact? Connecting the dots week to week would be reassuring in these upside down times. A weekly discussion of " here is what happened last week and this is where I expect things to go from here."
    • JW
      Jim W.
      1 June 2020 @ 06:06
      We have a monthly review of that within macro insiders--perhaps that is something that could go in the Friday weekly brief, along with the market wrap-up.
  • JW
    Jim W.
    1 June 2020 @ 06:04
    I joined RV at its inception, and it is cool to see how things have evolved over time. The daily brief is a great new addition, and excellent advertising, though I would like a slightly shorter version--perhaps 15 minutes or so on most days rather than 25-35. RV's political commentary has been great--meaning there are only conversations about the economic impact of political evolution. I especially like the macro focus on politics, whether within a context of a 4th turning or in the context of "tax rates for corporates aren't going to stay this low, most likely". I also really like the way every so often there will be a macro guest whose views I'm so opposed to it makes me want to throw things. Those are the guests that I re-read the transcripts a couple of times (the most recent is probably the Russell Clark interview), as it showed me where my emotions are getting in the way of a productive view. I'm fine never seeing Dee Smith again--I'd rather have someone like George Friedman, Hal Malmgren, Richard Haas or any of the smart folks from CSIS over him. That's not because he's evil, or even wrong, it's just his insights are obvious vs. what we typically receive on the platform. The distillery is great--I'm really happy that exists, as there is a tidal wave of content from time to time that is hard to consume in a timely fashion. Things I'd like to see improve/more of: 1-Better preparation by some of the less experienced interviewers. If you're interviewing Ross Beatty, for example, have your list of which companies Ross has done, when the major events occurred, and a couple of key things you hope to hear by the end. 2-A list of CFP's or similar who follow an RV macro viewpoint. I might not use it personally, but it would give me something to recommend that's better than most of the risk parity guys around. 3-Some sort of guidance for those of us who are very knowledgeable (albeit retail) in equity but just starting to do more in futures/commodities etc, whether it's entering positions, sizing vs. likely moves, etc. In theory, of course, it's the same stuff, but the learning curve is quite steep. 4-Provide weekly summaries at each offering tier of predictions made by guests, but in single consolidated document. One of the typical weaknesses of the CNBC's of the world is not tracking predictions, but also this document/report can show us trends. In fact, it might be good to do a "yearly lookback" on different largescale items RV does, such as "Recession Watch, one year later" or "Tesla: sometimes you just have to say WTF". 5-Enough of the "buy our production company stuff" at the end of the video. I'm glad RV is building a business and all, but I suspect I've heard it 100 times (literally) at this point. 6-I'd like to be able to gift RV trials to someone easily from my account, or (potentially) send specific vids to someone as a paid service. 7-I'd like to see better comments and notification management. I often don't leave comments because I like to think about the videos for a couple of days, and the comment window is really (perhaps) a week or so. I'd rather see some sort of RV msg board/slack channel/something that is restricted to members and speakers, ideally in a threaded way. Thanks again folks, jim
  • DL
    Dominic L.
    1 June 2020 @ 02:59
    Love RV but the marketing during these is getting pretty thick. Nothing wrong with self-reference IMO and drawing attention to the value of RV, but it's frustrating when this lite marketing takes up 20% of episodes. Show the value of RV, don't talk about it.
    • SN
      SAT N.
      1 June 2020 @ 03:21
      Agree. We wouldn't be here if we don't like RV. Focus on the subject.
  • DL
    Dominic L.
    1 June 2020 @ 01:31
    It's like Hollywood Squares, except with knockout gorgeous people.
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    31 May 2020 @ 17:05
    Thanks guys - enjoyed this candid 4 party format. RVDB - good length good format good pivot in crazy times. Other interviews - useful, a bit longer lately, and difficult to get thru often because of video and audio quality. Suggestion - send a good mic compatible for whatever computer the interviewee is using, then they can send it back afterwards. Doesn't have to be studio quality, even a $20 wired clip on mic would make the recording a better value, at low cost to RV. Video delivery platform - keyboard hotkeys on computer-watched videos for forward and back 15s would be another quick win low cost addition. YouTube uses J and L I think (I usually just use J to go back a bit). Seems everyvideo I need to rewind a bit to be able to absorb effectively (kudos to you for that), but hotkeys would be a good investment that I imagine others have also requested. Keep it up all!
    • TB
      Tobin B.
      1 June 2020 @ 00:28
      just discovered that the arrow keys go backwards :D have a good one
  • JL
    James L.
    1 June 2020 @ 00:11
    I joint RV not too long ago. I really love the interview with Raoul where he give his conclusion. It will be good if there is a weekly conclusion by Raoul or anyone in RV.
  • TZ
    Tibor Z.
    30 May 2020 @ 22:46
    Why RV is not making a "watchlist" with individual stocks. Let's say this and that copper miner going be interesting at approx at let's say @ $10. Keep in mind the margin of safety and geopolitical risks and the others. Could have interviewing analyst from let's say Seeking Alpha. Complete fundamental analysis. It could be so much more potencial here on RV other than these daily briefing which are also great but I could watch 2 videos daily as well. This would attract more subscribers for sure!
    • MK
      Michael K.
      30 May 2020 @ 23:41
      Personally there’s already so much single stock content out there, stocktwits and all the platform old timey websites. I prefer macro and focus on asset allocation. I personally DO NOT want RV to become a day trading stock picking operation.
    • DF
      David F.
      30 May 2020 @ 23:49
      But most of that stuff out there is not from macro thinking. And what is macro thinking for if it isn't for investing and how to make money? Perhaps some of us feel we are learning a lot about macro concepts but not enough on hoe to apply them to the markets.
    • ES
      Edward S.
      31 May 2020 @ 20:59
      I agree with David F. Not looking for a stock picking or signal service but some sort of analysis to demonstrate potential opportunities. As David says, it's all about investing a making money, so looking a bit more closely at how the RV guys are allocating assets and placing trades would be very helpful indeed.
  • MP
    Matthew P.
    30 May 2020 @ 00:12
    Hey guys - first up, just wanted to say that was an awesome piece! It was true real vision magic, at play. To Ed's question (on what the audience would like to see), one thing I've often thought would be cool, would be to express framework-themes/perspectives into high-level-portfolio mixes. For example: "given this current framework/theme, I'd express that theme via a rough portfolio mix of x%/Y%/Z%..." While that may be too complex (given individual risk tolerances/preferences, age brackets, financial positions, etc) a "rough-sketch" portfolio (to express a current framework themes) I think would help in calibrating perspectives. Thoughts?
    • ES
      Edward S.
      31 May 2020 @ 20:55
      Yeah I agree.
  • en
    eric n.
    31 May 2020 @ 20:16
    Negative interest rates are a tax on depositors, the banks are just the collection agent. When Japan introduced negative interest rates, the depositors withdrew their money as the demand for safes exceed the supply. He country ran out of safes to buy in about one week.
  • mB
    marc B.
    31 May 2020 @ 19:05
    Great round table. I watch everything and get tons of value to incorporate in my portfolio. I’m upsessed with macro trading. And rv. I would enjoy hearing from more ceo sprott, fnv, paas; gave me more insight and confidence in owning these stocks. Additionally, maybe some etf pm guys focusing on tech in emerging markets or what’s on the horizon with PE in this space. With the dollar so strong MA is eventually going to start. I’m also interested in international real estate I’m in US. But the carnage overseas is providing investment. I know it’s early but I want to start understanding markets. Also, maybe some sponsorship. Like a page of rv stamp of approval companies helping with investment recommendations. I am very interested in learning how to buy individual bonds us & globally. I want to buy a lot when carnage hits. Typing on iPhone so maybe few typos. Also rv has helped me watch my one year old and still be productive ! Great service
    • mB
      marc B.
      31 May 2020 @ 19:08
      Also I don’t mind hearing about political policy because it affects market. Now more than ever. It’s highly relevant.
  • PR
    Prashanth R.
    31 May 2020 @ 16:10
    As a part of the daily briefing or expert view it would be great to get views at least once a week/month on countries outside the US and EU. Specifically, to broadly understand what's going on in the major EMs, Canada and Australia would be very useful.
    • mB
      marc B.
      31 May 2020 @ 18:56
      I am very interested in non us macro environments and what to invest in. Especially tech & Blockchain companies.
  • JM
    John M.
    30 May 2020 @ 08:44
    Gents, Thank you for the peek behind the curtain. In reply to Ed's question "What do we want to see in this fractured environment that is not partisan and how can RVTV represent it without picking sides?", I have a suggestion. Many of the cultural events we see today are similar to those seen before the great depression of the 1930s (currency wars, tariffs etc.). Neil Howe's work and the work of others describe these cyclic phenomena. Perhaps you can do a week featuring people who have commented on and even forecasted these kinds of cultural events. In addition to Neil Howe, I am aware of Jim Rickards, Dee Smith, George Friedman and a group at the Socionomics Institute. I highly recommend the Socionomics Institute, which studies social mood, cultural trends, finance, politics and the economy. Their discussions are wide ranging and cover a diverse number of subjects such as the polarization of society, the types of movies/music/cars we watch/listen to/buy in bull and bear markets or how likely an incumbent president is to get re-elected. You can find them at https://www.socionomics.net/. Behavioral economists like Steven Levitt / Stephen Dubner at Freakonomics.com may also be able to shed some light as potential guests. I'm sure there are many others. Best regards, John
    • PC
      Paul C.
      31 May 2020 @ 07:39
      I think Robert Prechter bought out a book on Socioeconomics and EW. I Believe, though i haven’t read it, it supports his thesis alongside EW in the markets, that a deflationary bust is coming.
    • WM
      Will M.
      31 May 2020 @ 18:13
      Yes Robert Prechter did bring out a book called Socioeconomics and it was quite good. I followed Prechter for 15 years but the med to long term calls were poor. Prechter expected the deflationary depression to start in the late 90s and then again after 2009. I really enjoyed his work but he got the timing all wrong. After all, timing is (almost) everything.
  • rL
    remmelt L.
    30 May 2020 @ 07:30
    Ed, I’ve been considering your question about RVDB going forward and how could you guys improve RVDB. I love listen to RVDB, some points are small. - The Roger day, when you finish it on closing Europe time send it on that time. Also nice for your Europe audience. - More graphs and Screens share, in the conversation. So we also can see it. If you have a news paper artikel, we see the headline. Nice that you put the articles now in context. - You have so much interviews but it is nice to give a small rap up of the interview of the day and what does it mean for the theory of raoul. So just more explanation. - Try to have everyday a new quest in the weak RVDB. So not two times Ed and Roger or ash and Ed. Also nice to have one in the week a day trader in the show, - To have the short time (week) perspective and explain what is happening. - The interviewer could be more critical. Ash, sometimes you give to much compliment. Please be more devils advocate and put a different perspective to it. Roger says the European banks are in worst condition. But never asked the question why are the banks in so bad shape? Is this because of the conditions central banks ecb does? Could this also happen in United States? About the politics on November. This is real difficult in United States, when I watched the news on CNN or fox's I asked my self do I see the same news. Does the United States have a instuut what calculate what the program means for the economic and budget. In the Netherlands we have that. - please stick to the numbers and also invite vieuws of a broad. When I think about politics and numbers. Maybe is nice to make a poll and question. If you are as an investor and be the president of united states. How much percentage will you spend on what category: like army, tax returns, schools etc. Then this comparing to different nations. Maybe even asked a republican and a Democrat. So instead of a debate make it more choices regulate it. I hope it helps you guys and Ed. I love your show
    • JC
      John C.
      31 May 2020 @ 17:51
      I like most of this^^ but am I the only one who thinks the daily briefings are slightly too long? 20 minutes would be awesome. Also maybe expanded daily focus on certain markets as opposed to just talking at length about random macro views. Maybe I'm asking too much here and it's well nigh impossible to compact it all in 20 minutes....I can barely get through the daily updates let alone even half of the weekly videos right now. I guess it is what it is.
  • CX
    Cindy X.
    30 May 2020 @ 15:11
    I am glad you guys agree that Russell Clark gave you a whole new perspective. If one only listens to western main stream media, they will have a very lop-sided view of the world, usually making others look unimportant and small, while making judgment based on liberal ideal than reality. If you combine information from RT and al Jazeera, you may be balanced.
    • JC
      John C.
      31 May 2020 @ 17:46
      Al Jazeera and RT would be a very interesting news combination indeed. Then add in Fox News and maybe BBC and you'd have it rounded out. Your head would be spinning most likely trying to parse through all the noise, bias & propaganda but you'd get an insane amount of differing views.
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    30 May 2020 @ 23:53
    With regard to the discussion of inflation vs. deflation, I have listened to both sides, and without any concrete evidence for my opinion, I think that we are at a point where we are stuck either in deflation or hyperinflation. The natural tendency of the economy right now is toward deflation, but if we ever start to get real inflation (meaning the the velocity of money starts to rise, not just that some prices rise), it will be impossible to hold it in the range of 2%. It will begin to move past that to drift up to 10%, and then will begin to accelerate. Volcker-type steps might be able to turn it down again, but I really doubt that anyone of that stature or strength is available, or would be allowed to take the necessary steps. I think that over the next few years we will be facing either a deflationary depression or a hyper-inflationary depression. I think that the former would be very painful but ultimately less dangerous, but that the latter is more likely. And I'm not talking just the dollar, but all major currencies. I hope I'm wrong.
    • JC
      John C.
      31 May 2020 @ 17:43
      I don't think they can ever do 'Volker type' steps. We are far too indebted and any meaningful rate hike would simultaneously crush the bond, housing and even equity markets. Russell Clark said even a 50 bps hike would crush markets now. Fed trapped itself. More likely to see a gradual Japan style YCC then Fed buying most of the Treasury market and eventually debt jubilee. Complete re-set likely at some point.
  • TB
    Tobin B.
    31 May 2020 @ 16:30
    Gooooo Jack!
  • JE
    Jon E.
    31 May 2020 @ 13:17
    Ash: "broad civil unrest" ... first check off on the doomsday scenarios
  • KT
    Kay T.
    31 May 2020 @ 11:36
    Yes agreed the most value of this platform is in providing alternative perspectives so that the viewers can build their own frameworks and decide how to weigh which catalyst at that point of time basis the info/data they know and size/act accordingly. To that point, perhaps a heretical suggestion that might draw lots of flak - it seems almost most of the macro/fast money types are all recommending core longs in bitcoin/gold (Be it because of well thought out processes or the skeptic in me suspects more because of safety in numbers). Can realvision find updated perspectives from critical thinkers that argue against these 2 assets/instruments and present their point of views? At the end of the day in the short-mid term the price of an instrument is determined by what the marginal buyer/seller does and through following many varied sources it seems most people are really bulled up on those two and that always worries me given these people would already be positioned so what’s the potential narratives that can change all this bullish sentiment? Thanks and keep up the good work, Rgds
  • BA
    Bob A.
    31 May 2020 @ 04:01
    I think without the velosity of money increasing I don't think we see material inflation. In prior QE pushes we failed to see predicted inflation because the money was trapped in banks that hoarded it.
  • PB
    Paul B.
    31 May 2020 @ 00:49
    Daily view on Gold, Silver and Oil and any other Commodity's on the Move. It only needs to be a short piece every day. We are talking Macro yeah? Why not hit up the only sector each day that represents the real Economy. Things like the price of Coffee can paint a picture when you take out any climate forcing moves
  • lm
    luke m.
    31 May 2020 @ 00:21
    The daily briefing needs some charts overlapped with the commentary
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    31 May 2020 @ 00:05
    What would I like to see on RV? First of all, no major changes. Tweaks, try new things and see how they pan out, but you have a winning formula, IMHO, so be careful not to hurt it. What makes RV valuable to me is its lack of partisan programming. You have guests from all different perspectives, and you give them time to lay out their case and perspective, but RV itself is not conservative or liberal, but honest. Don't lose that honesty. With regard to RVDB, I enjoy the variety of hosts, and how they interact. You have some great chemistry. Don't be afraid to try new things, but understand that a lot of ideas that sound great don't work so well in practice. If something doesn't work out well, either tweak it and try again, or drop it and move on. The good stuff will accumulate. At least, it has so far, and I have great hopes for the future.
  • PB
    Paul B.
    30 May 2020 @ 23:39
    China took over the World Economy over 10 years ago IMO. China's internal consumption and external with regard to the Belt Road will see them in good stead when compared to the USA and Europe and Australia etc. Not much talk about Domestic Riots happening all over the World. I think it's possible this will escalate to force Western Governments to change a lot of Financial Rules, starting in the USA
  • JS
    John S.
    30 May 2020 @ 22:27
    Excellent - thanks guys
  • WB
    William B.
    30 May 2020 @ 21:58
    It was a brutal week for the short EUR/USD trade. I am curious at what point you need to rethink that trade and whether the market is saying something significant.
  • JL
    Jose L.
    30 May 2020 @ 18:31
    Hi Roger! Could you recommend us some books to learn more about the events leading to WW1? Thanks!
  • TS
    Tom S.
    30 May 2020 @ 17:31
    As always "Thanks!" Best part of the session was the last 15 minutes when the team addressed questions they wished had been asked and their own values re: working at Real Vision.
  • CX
    Cindy X.
    30 May 2020 @ 15:22
    One more point about China is their long-term planning ability. They don't plan for 4 years. Do people know that more than 90% Chinese are genuinely happy with the Chinese government? Every Chinese I know is like that so my experience is 100%. I heard Putin is very much supported by the majority of the Russians, too. This is why both Xi and Putin can make themselves permanent leaders without much opposition. Not saying this is good, but right now people in both countries are happy with that because they deeply trust their leaders. They bring prosperity and stability. This, unfortunately, is just too hard to understand by the West.
  • BC
    Brock C.
    30 May 2020 @ 12:34
    Great AMA show. I think a portion focusing on technical analysis would be of significant benefit.
  • RC
    Robert C.
    30 May 2020 @ 11:04
    Hi Ed, in regards to feedback on what other things that I would like to see. It would be doing a slightly more deep dive on the different part of the world each day of the week e.g. Monday: US/Americans Tuesday: UK/Europe Wednesday: Asia Thursday: Australia/New Zealand Friday: Global wrap up for the week. I suspect when you review the analytics of your subscriber base that there is a growing international audience. As a by product of some of the research that go into this, we might discover more hidden gems e.g. Russell Clark's comment about China's shift in investment. I for one would love to hear someone do a deep dive on New Zealand to challenge my own thesis.
  • SC
    Stuart C.
    30 May 2020 @ 11:03
    I'd like to see more data driven analysis from the chemical industry. I found Paul Hodges' monologue extremely informative as a macro investor. Deeper dives into the data and possibly links to where data can be referenced.
  • DR
    Danilo R.
    30 May 2020 @ 11:01
    The past does not equal the future, We are living in a momentum driven financial market. To be honest the market is acting like it did before the tech bubble, the housing bubble, and in February ... and the value investors, paid money managers, hedge funds are on the verge of being extinct as the dinosaurs they are. Three simple reasons. QE, disruptive/new technology, and Boomers. 0 percent interests ... which trashes fundamentals (how do IRR with zero percent ... ya you can’t), disruptive technology like passive money which is making Wall Street obsolete, the new economy which is COVID is the accelerant and the ultimate in Baby Boomers economic and fiscal apocalypse i.e. the short squeeze. Zero percent interest to prop a stock market, and a high yield demand for their unfunded pensions. The Fed Bank mortgaging the future to guarantee unsustainable stock market gains for a certain group of retirees (ya Boomers), The copious amount of bad money demand comes from the archaic and unfunded Boomer state pensions that seeks 7-8% return in a 60 basis point interest and 1.5% real GDP growth world. The U.S. is not Japan, a xenophobic aging society with a corrupt banking system and no influx of cheap immigrant labor pool that gave the U.S. the only developed country with a strong future generation of Tik Toking, YouTubing, Robin Hooding, digital currency spending millennials. The case of inflation is severely discounting Japan, Europe, the oversupply of USD global debt and how old people don’t spend. As the government response favored FANG, big store retail and big pharma (thank you Fauci) there will be a new world order controlled by the 1% and tech giants. Lower employment, wage stagnation, unfunded pension will lead to increased social unrest. You can’t QE when there is no interest to bring down, you can print currency or forgive debt. When millenials rule the state ... a new world order of debt forgiveness seems more likely as a pendulum reaction to Boomers who have kept the print press (sorry fancy Fed cheif Keyboard) working harder than a Bitcoin mining ASIC. It’s like the Star Wars saga, great technology does not make up for a bad social story, there is a new hope of sounder fiscal and monetary policy, and eventually we will need a new generation of protagonists.
  • DS
    David S.
    30 May 2020 @ 08:00
    War with Iran is more likely than China. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    30 May 2020 @ 07:52
    Great idea. Enjoyed the give and take. Until medications can allow patients to recover at home or a vaccine is found to get herd immunity, this recession will last for a long time. The science is simple. The virus is unaffected by fake news. Denial is not a strategy. The one piece of good news is that COVID-19 may not mutate as quickly as the common flu or colds. DLS
  • MC
    Michael C.
    30 May 2020 @ 07:05
    "QE is an asset swap...causing people to move from that market to other markets....Fed is acting as an anchor......It's all about the signalling effect the Fed gives". Ed Harrison (not picking you Ed) Worth noting that nobody is being forced to buy equities on the margin when they swap their treasuries for cash with the Fed. Its a conscious choice. PM's only do it because they "believe" it is safe to do so. They believe the Fed is omnipotent and god like. This all comes down to beliefs and ideology. Forget the maths about balance sheet expansion and correlation to risk assets. Correlations exist until they don't and beliefs are the underlying driver behind everything. I wonder if the ensuing insolvency crisis will challenge prevailing beliefs?
  • AW
    Angela W.
    30 May 2020 @ 06:59
    Guys, LOVE this format! Thank you for creating the “ask me anything” opportunity. Would it be possible please to announce these sessions in advance, and create a way for subscribers to submit questions, so that those of us not in your time zone can also participate please? Also would be great if subscribers could recommend guests to interview and then other listeners vote, (ie Jeff Snider, Lynn Alden) so Jack gets a list of “most audience requested”. Just an idea, as Ed asked the question. Looking forward to Mike Howell Ash!
  • lm
    luke m.
    30 May 2020 @ 02:30
    Well balanced views ... ?? All I’ve heard since the March lows is “RETEST THE LOWS, DEAD CAT BOUNCE “ and probably not enough thought given to the speed and size of the FED put.
    • ND
      Nicolas D.
      30 May 2020 @ 03:06
      We also heard Raoul said that he wasn't sure if the stock market was a macro asset anymore, and he wasn't sure his analyze was right.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    30 May 2020 @ 00:05
    Ed, I’ve been considering your question about RVDB going forward. I find that since adding the RVDB I’ve listened to it consistently, which makes it more challenging to hear all the other great content. I like the focused deep dives you’ve begun lately, but THE MOST IMPORTANT THING for me is when you refer to platform content and explain - contextualize that content from RVDB. It works as both a guide for listening and a recap. Your perspective on that previous content makes my understanding deeper as well. One additional suggestion would be to create a space for us to clarify terms and concepts. It took me three weeks, for example, to figure out that when Roger says “fall off”, he means “go down.” I’m asking here for a dynamic faq, a kind of a RV Investopia. Thanks for reading this and for your brilliant leadership!
    • EH
      Edward H. | Real Vision
      30 May 2020 @ 00:52
      Thank you for the advice, Cory. We will take that onboard and make sure to discuss recent interviews and our high level takeaways in future Daily Briefings.
    • CM
      Cory M.
      30 May 2020 @ 01:01
      Thanks for the reply Ed. I also hope you’ll consider my second suggestion.