Bonds: The Instrument of Truth – Live with Raoul Pal & George Goncalves

Published on
June 16th, 2020
47 minutes

EM: The Last Frontier – Live with Arjun Divecha

Bonds: The Instrument of Truth – Live with Raoul Pal & George Goncalves

Live ·
Featuring George Goncalves

Published on: June 16th, 2020 • Duration: 47 minutes

If the equity market is the wild child who disregards authority and endangers himself because of naiveté, then the bond market is the responsible adult that utilizes knowledge and wisdom accumulated over a lifetime of hard learned lessons. Today, the bond market is imploring us to pay attention, but for one reason or another, the market seems to disregard it or misunderstand it. In this week’s Real Vision Live we have  two individuals who understand what the bond market is saying and have been listening closely for years. Raoul Pal sits down with George Goncalves of The Bond Strategist to decipher what the bond market is signaling for markets. Charts:



  • ly
    lena y.
    21 June 2020 @ 17:20
    I fully appreciate the change in transcript format. Help me to make notes while listening!
    • AI
      Andras I.
      23 June 2020 @ 01:34
      I got to say it was much easier in the older format that's still used with the interviews - fully self-contained PDF with all the charts. It's not cool to have a lesser format for the more expensive tier. And just as easily could have both.
  • ck
    chuck k.
    21 June 2020 @ 18:39
    I agree to having George back around October for another round.
  • AI
    Andras I.
    19 June 2020 @ 00:03
    Great overview, thank you! Would it be possible to get an update on the fiscal policy side (both current and post election outcomes) and maybe also a look into how the Green New Deal could fit in the picture - an assumed $100TR spending over 10 years, including of course green infrastructure but a much larger portion (up to $45TR) spent on gov. insured jobs and another similar amount on universal healthcare. Or whatever the current administration's plan is. A review/critique of GND by Prof. Robert P. Murphy (Austrian School economist): Thanks!
    • JC
      John C.
      21 June 2020 @ 16:19
      $100 trillion for a "Green New Deal" would implode the country in rather short time I would assume. "Green" policies have failed in most parts of the world at this point in any case. Need nuclear to provide clean, safe electricity -- wasting money on incredibly high footprint wind or partially effective solar is a losing strategy, as German and most of the Eastern European countries have found (and Ukraine is finding out right now).
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    21 June 2020 @ 10:50
    This was a really interesting interview, with a lot packed into it. Will need to rewatch to understand the full mechanics of some of what George was saying as bonds not my area. Would be very useful to get George back for a follow up in October to see how his forecasts play out and how he sees it then moves forward from there into the backend of 2020 and into 2021..
  • JH
    Joel H.
    21 June 2020 @ 09:31
    excellent. Thank you!
  • JR
    Jobe R.
    20 June 2020 @ 14:34
    Raoul, you let him off the hook ! Shoulda asked George how he sees the -ve yield side of the price/yield bond curve.. it goes south ! I'm sure most of that bond cash goes back into POMO. The recent peoples QE, in the face of contracting GDP (supply chain disruption) might actually spell core inflation in my view (Quad#3 to Quad#2:Keith McCullough). The dilemma is: The Fed needs inflation to dispel its own high gearing but inflation itself brings higher rates and thus liquidity crisis (unaffordability) to an overleveraged economy. If theres a 6% soft-commodities boom could they really keep this rate complacency ? Its armageddon.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    19 June 2020 @ 23:31
    I’ve enjoyed EVERY George interview!
  • PS
    Parminder S.
    19 June 2020 @ 21:21
    This guy knows his shit! No pissing around in this interview
  • DS
    David S.
    19 June 2020 @ 18:06
    What a great interview Raoul! We need more frequent updates from George.
  • CB
    Cliff B.
    19 June 2020 @ 10:07
    Excellent interview
  • AT
    ALAN T.
    19 June 2020 @ 00:18
  • DM
    Dominic M.
    18 June 2020 @ 22:15
    TY gentlemen—great conversation.
  • ap
    andrew p.
    18 June 2020 @ 07:06
    Thanks again Raoul, any thoughts on Australian 10-year bonds, yielding 0.95, appears attractive in light of this conversation, your view, Lacy Hunts ( i think the most credible) real rates, etc ... Good lvls today to buy after another shocking employment number ?
  • MD
    Matt D.
    18 June 2020 @ 05:47
    Great conversation Raoul and George. Thanks. Sharing your depth on knowledge in this market is something I find extremely ! valuable. Very interesting insight into the corporate T-Bill demand. Excellent - appreciate this interview.
  • MO
    Master O.
    18 June 2020 @ 05:41
    "Deflation is impossible in today's dollar terms because policy will allow the printing of cash, if necessary, to cover every last bit of debt and dumping it on your front lawn! (smile) Worthless dollars, of course, but no deflation in dollar terms! (bigger smile)" - FOFOA
  • DP
    Duane P.
    18 June 2020 @ 05:29
    Definitely getting my money's worth on this one! Great interview!
  • AS
    Ash S.
    18 June 2020 @ 05:25
    You are an excellent interviewer Raoul. Another great videocast (if that's what they are called).
  • AP
    Adam P.
    18 June 2020 @ 03:48
    George is so good. I’m always amped up when I see he’s on deck! We don’t get out much anymore.
  • mB
    marc B.
    18 June 2020 @ 02:29
    Great conversation. Perfect timing. Us treasuries biggest current allocation.
  • DS
    David S.
    18 June 2020 @ 01:34
    Excellent. Thanks. DLS