Breaking Down the Meltdown: Live with Mark Ritchie II and Thomas Thornton

Published on
March 9th, 2020
Duration
52 minutes

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Breaking Down the Meltdown: Live with Mark Ritchie II and Thomas Thornton

Live ·
Featuring Mark Ritchie II and Thomas Thornton

Published on: March 9th, 2020 • Duration: 52 minutes

With Monday’s market carnage, market participants and spectators alike are entering seemingly unprecedented, or at the very least, misremembered territory. Mark Ritchie II, CIO of RTM Capital Advisors, joins Thomas Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry to take a deeper look at the recent chaos in financial markets. With coronavirus fears seemingly causing the markets to melt down, Ritchie II and Thornton provide their perspectives as to what is really going on. Looking at the markets tactically, each expert supplies their take on how investors and traders should be looking to reasonably position their portfolios.

Comments

Transcript

  • MR
    Milton R. | Founder
    16 March 2020 @ 15:18
    Due to prep for coronavirus, transcripts for RV Live were delayed this past week. Transcripts are now up for all RV Live videos and will be up promptly within 48 hours of all live talks moving forward. Thank you for your patience
  • JJ
    JOSE J.
    11 March 2020 @ 09:34
    first time I heard "Holy Fuck" in a Real Vision video. Signs of the times :)
    • DS
      David S.
      11 March 2020 @ 13:36
      Such an expletive on RVTV should be saved for a rare moment. Both believe we are at the low of the market correction. The expletive is not appropriate. Their basis for market bottom seems to be the 20% decline. This does not comport with my unskilled guess that we have at least another 20% to go in quality stocks. DLS
    • JA
      Jordan A.
      12 March 2020 @ 00:38
      I've heard it a few times. Doesn't bother me.
    • DS
      David S.
      12 March 2020 @ 22:06
      It is not about being bothered. It is about effective speaking. Expletive have a purpose and a meaning. Just throwing it out there in a calm manner is like Spock trying to use expletives in San Francisco in one of the movies. It did not work. It did not work here. It is great to use when it will make the definitive statement. DLS
    • AP
      Ash P.
      15 March 2020 @ 10:09
      Raoul throws it...sparingly...and to good effect.
  • MA
    Muhammad A.
    14 March 2020 @ 05:08
    Great discussion! Thanks for taking the time Tom and Mark.
  • RB
    Robert B.
    12 March 2020 @ 12:12
    To the questioner who is looking for a recommendation for an investing time horizon of 6-18 months; don't be in stocks. That is an inadequate length of time to support an equity position if you need the cash in 6 - 18 months
  • WB
    William B.
    12 March 2020 @ 04:22
    I could go to a local bar and ask someone what he thought.
  • JA
    Jordan A.
    12 March 2020 @ 00:52
    So much for that.
  • PC
    Petros C.
    11 March 2020 @ 19:07
    Apologies for not being clear. What I am asking is if the existing price action fits so far from a technical perspective the potential doom loop scenario that Raoul has described . The argument of buying quality stocks with caution seems to play along with a bullish scenario. However, we have heard from RV that in an era of indexation & critical issues with U.S. pensions even value stocks could suffer heavy losses in a down turn. Mohamed El-Erian has been quite out-spoken against buying this dip, because "people are not going to book a ship cruise anytime soon, no matter what the Fed or fiscal stimulus is", as he eloquently said. I'm quite assured that both you guys, along with most finance pros, will be ready if a doom loop scenario happens. What we want to hear is accurate predictions before the facts. Having said that, I do not want to be spoon fed trading ideas. I am open to arguments to both sides from RV. Even the argument of bitcoin @1 million sheds an insight to contrarian thinkers.
    • MR
      Mark R. | Contributor
      11 March 2020 @ 20:21
      Petros: I gave an accurate prediction. That yesterdays dip was a buy, I said it live while it was happening for a trade and low and behold the S+P rallied over a 100 pts, today we gave it right back. I said that volatility is here to stay for awhile and that's what we have. I also said that I believe this market right now is trying to put in a bottom. This is a very fluid situation (no pun intended) and you have to take this one day at a time. I am NOT in the 'doom loop' camp and I thought I was pretty clear on that but I also said that I am holding a LOT of cash for now, because I am tactical. I try not to give overly specific stock/idea recommendations as that is not the primary strategy that we run for clients. However if you'd like to chat more about that kinda stuff feel free to reach out to me at mac@rtmca.com as I'd love to talk about that. Last thought is that it's important to know what markets 'should' do, as when they don't do what they should you know you have a bigger problem. My work and experience suggests that the markets should put in at least a meaningful bounce. So far yesterday was all that the market could muster. If we have a terrible close on the week it will spell that traditional pricing mechanisms as I see it are breaking down in the short run. Hope that makes sense, be well and feel free to reach out Mark
    • JW
      J W.
      11 March 2020 @ 20:40
      There were quite a few seemingly contradictory messages here; yes, they did say 'holding a lot cash', and they said that some stocks are good to buy now, and they also said keep your sizing small and that risk management is of paramount importance, and yes I still feel they did not adequately represented a further dip to come (once people start losing jobs - check the recent news from Boeing - and truly panicking due to further virus news from the US) , but I also know this is an (high probability) opinion and not a fact. Whilst I am leaning more towards the doom loop than the buy-the-current-dip sentiment, you can make an argument for dipping in the market if you are willing to sit through some pain. But then again they also said some things about having very short timeframes, ie swing trade certain opportunities. These gents know far more about the markets than I do and want to be respectful of that, but one does not have to agree with everything. Overall, I thought it was an interesting perspective.
  • DS
    David S.
    11 March 2020 @ 13:59
    Technical analysis needs to be tempered with reality when looking at a paradigm shift. If you are running backward (charting history) toward a 1,000-foot cliff, you may not think that there is a critical point coming up. This does not dismiss the benefits of technical analysis, but you need additional points of view to call markets that are shifting fast and on several levels. DLS
  • PS
    Paul S.
    11 March 2020 @ 13:35
    Watch your language. Be a pro.
  • PC
    Petros C.
    10 March 2020 @ 18:56
    I was expecting to hear some comments about whether the doom loop scenario that Raoul has been talking about for months in RV is going to ignite.
    • GS
      George S.
      10 March 2020 @ 19:11
      These guys are technicians for the most part. Their bread and butter is price action, not macro, credit and so on.
    • TT
      Tommy T. | Contributor
      10 March 2020 @ 21:11
      Hi Petros I'll defer to Raoul for the doom loop scenario. Mark and I had more tactical views with current positioning. When that time ignites I'm sure Mark and I will be ready for it. Thanks for tuning in
    • PC
      Petros C.
      11 March 2020 @ 11:37
      Apologies for not being clear. What I am asking is if the existing price action fits so far from a technical perspective the potential doom loop scenario that Raoul has described . The argument of buying quality stocks with caution seems to play along with a bullish scenario. However, we have heard from RV that in an era of indexation & critical issues with U.S. pensions even value stocks could suffer heavy losses in a down turn. Mohamed El-Erian has been quite out-spoken against buying this dip, because "people are not going to book a ship cruise anytime soon, no matter what the Fed or fiscal stimulus is", as he eloquently said. I'm quite assured that both you guys, along with most finance pros, will be ready if a doom loop scenario happens. What we want to hear is accurate predictions before the facts. Having said that, I do not want to be spoon fed trading ideas. I am open to arguments to both sides from RV. Even the argument of bitcoin @1 million sheds an insight to contrarian thinkers.
  • MP
    Michael P.
    11 March 2020 @ 03:51
    Thanks for having Mark Ritchie II on again. I really liked his last interview at the previous market correction a few years ago - it was very insightful and this one had some excellent food for thought from him as well.
  • js
    j s.
    11 March 2020 @ 02:52
    Apple is looking good for their dividend? What's he smoking? 1.08%...lol. Yeah, great.
  • js
    j s.
    11 March 2020 @ 02:47
    Stocks are still 10 to 15% overvalued, and that's on the past earning projections. With earnings up in the air, probably 40% overvalued.
  • JK
    Jim K.
    11 March 2020 @ 01:36
    Will a transcript be produced? Thank you.
  • tc
    thomas c.
    11 March 2020 @ 01:36
    As much as I am impressed with TT's knowledge and understanding, his calls on many individual stocks over the yrs have not been so good. Maybe his broader view is better
  • KO
    Kieran O.
    11 March 2020 @ 00:30
    Excellent conversation!
  • JW
    J W.
    10 March 2020 @ 20:14
    Interesting talk but they seem to underestimate the economic knock-on effects of the virus imho.
    • TT
      Tommy T. | Contributor
      10 March 2020 @ 21:15
      JW2 I'll say I'm not underestimating the economic knock-on effects as I see the pattern down occurring in 5 down waves. It will take time to play out in my view and it likely could start a downswing in consumer confidence and a rise in unemployment and once that starts it tends to continue for quarters and or years. Thanks for watching.
  • JC
    John C.
    10 March 2020 @ 20:18
    This was an interesting interplay of viewpoints. Seems both speakers in the we are oversold camp, but that any bounces from here will be sold. I guess what I would like to have heard is if this coronavirus intensifies will the market nosedive? Mark seems to have said yes but wondering what happens to the DeMark countdowns there (busted?). And here we have yet another end of day market pump by the algos which is increasingly worrisome and intriguing.