COVID-19 and The Acceleration of Secular Deflation

Published on
September 23rd, 2020
70 minutes

Portfolio Construction During The Ultimate Volatility Regime Change

COVID-19 and The Acceleration of Secular Deflation

Live ·
Featuring Jeff Booth

Published on: September 23rd, 2020 • Duration: 70 minutes

Last time Jeff Booth, author of “The Price of Tomorrow,” was on Real Vision, he discussed why the central banks’ constant money printing to combat deflation is only a losing battle and how technology contributes to the strengthening of secular deflationary trends. With the arrival of COVID-19 this year, Jeff and Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, discuss how the pandemic has catalyzed this scenario by contextualizing it within the current market environment, as well as explore what will maintain purchasing power in the long term and avoid monetary debasement.



  • DP
    Dean P.
    22 January 2021 @ 01:51
    I want to keep clicking thumbs up on this video! Amazing work guys!
  • PK
    Philipp K.
    27 September 2020 @ 20:19
    Really loved the interview. I loved the on in January already and I was looking forward to this one. I got to questions which I am struggling to put into context of my framework: 1. Example with the cabin at the lake. Rent is up from USD 500 / month to USD 1'500 / month (or Why do you consider it "wage deflation" instead of "cost of living inflation"? I don't get that. 2. I get the point of technology driving efficiency and therefore being a massive deflationary force. I get that the exponential component of it is (always) underestimated (paper to sun). And I also agree that it is more likely that central banks try to "Print" their way out of this problem instead of accepting a deflationary bust. But what I don't get and I was missing the question from Raoul: The FED wasn't able to create inflation for a long time. What will give them the ability to create it in the future?
    • Kv
      Kristian v.
      29 September 2020 @ 06:39
      I think the answer to your second question is MMT/monetizing debt. As for them not generating inflation this past decade, well they haven’t generated CPI inflation. They’ve generated plenty of asset inflation though. The helicopter money should see that impact CPI.
    • JW
      James W.
      21 January 2021 @ 15:49
      I'm stuck on the same point as your question 1. Surely wage deflation and price inflation are two sides of the same coin. They are the same thing. So if we agree that wages are deflating, then by definition we agree that prices are inflating relative to earnings.
  • PO
    Paul O.
    25 September 2020 @ 01:09
    If the network effects that get created cause this massive deflationary wave isn't the answer to step in and disrupt the network? Why not use Anti-Trust laws/actions rather than money printing?
    • Kv
      Kristian v.
      25 September 2020 @ 04:58
      Jeff mentions in his book that any government that attempts to do that, in particular when it comes to AI networks, will cripple its ability to compete globally for AI dominance. As the country that has AI dominance will be the global superpower, if the US or Europe breakup Google, Amazon, or Facebook and the like they’ll likely cede their superpower to China.
    • JD
      John D.
      21 January 2021 @ 00:44
      Burn factories, destroy machines, cut internet cables, turn off water supply. We can be all farmers. That will solve it. 🤦‍♂️
  • JV
    Jay V.
    26 September 2020 @ 04:21
    Some fascinating discussion about software eating the world, the efficiencies created by the software industry creates wealth that is being concentrated there and in the related industries, the pick and shovels of the internet etc. A similar effect can be expected in blockchain, blockchain businesses and what will be born there. It is true that it is affecting the value that individuals can add to processes because processing power is exponentially growing and benefit is accruing to the creators and supporting members of that industry while wages in other industry jobs, the users of the software are affected/deflated due to the democratization of the technology, which is made generally available. However I think you are not giving partial credit where it is due, which is to the elimination of a hard asset backed currency, which in itself is debasing wage earner rewards, combined with our debt creation system. The debt creation aspect without a limiting anchor is affecting all. For instance, debt inflates prices ie. - through govt. gteed mortgage financing , housing values are increased by a certain factor. Through student loans gteed. by govt. University tuitions are inflated by a certain factor. Through auto financing loans car's prices are inflated, via government financing- transfer payments- covering health care at hospitals etc fake money financing inflates health care pricing. There are various other examples with similar effects. Everyone benefits from the technology and the exponential growth of processing power indirectly - great phones, computers, more productive at work, nice entertainment at home, safer planes, cars, there are many benefits. But the outsized profits go where the technology is creating that benefit. During the industrial revolution we had similar displacements and a huge change from agriculturally focused society to a more urban one with new types of jobs. I have a disagreement with the stated outcomes and the assertion that the problem will become uncontrollable (the "building a fire the size of the sun" allegory) . The fluctuation or ebb and flow from monetary policy dominance to fiscal policy dominance and back again has happened in the past in our country and elsewhere. Today we have monetary policy at the zero bound and therefore it is no longer an effective policy. The use of fiscal policy and the growth of the money supply is the inflation of the denominator under the debt numerator, to inflate away the numerator, and actions have been taken to do this int he past. Also action has been taken unilaterally by our government, with consent of the people, by elected officials, to change the system and reset when active fiscal policy becomes untenable ( price inflation rising too high). Gold could again be the reset and Bitcoin by dictat could be on the periphery. Not out of existence, and still a store of value, like other hard assets ( silver, gold, diamonds, art, land, whiskey, etc.) , it may have characteristics that are more attractive than these other hard assets and because of continued support by the blockchain network participants and its inherent utility in that network could be found to be of value as a continuing medium of exchange ( barter not legal tender), but if the government says legal tender is the new US dollar 2.0 and it has real asset backing again, then Bitcoin will be relegated to be considered property like the others. This is a long conversation, but just wanted to shake the tree a little. A balance must and will be struck. Libra will not dominate, as we now know, therefore why would Bitcoin owners be allowed to make the rules ("eat the world")?
    • JD
      John D.
      21 January 2021 @ 00:33
      Bitcoin doesn't need to be allowed anything. Bitcoin just is. Look 10 years back. Was piratebay allowed to exist? Does piratebay exist now? Does bittorent protocol work now? Can you download copywrited movie from piratebay through bittorent today? Is it allowed?
  • PK
    Philipp K.
    27 September 2020 @ 20:22
    By the way - it is always so interesting to see that every interview has some "thumbs down". I get that when I am on FB or alike but here? What does this express? I don't agree with the opinion? The opinion is badly presented? Or is it just a double check that also the thumbs down button is working...? Come on ...
    • JD
      John D.
      21 January 2021 @ 00:23
      freedom? Come on ... 🤦‍♂️🤣
  • FL
    Fabrizio L.
    28 September 2020 @ 09:16
    Bitcoin is an escape hatch. If you are trying to escape from the guys that control the network that is vital for bitcoin to transact, how can it be an escape hatch? can someone explain?
    • JD
      John D.
      21 January 2021 @ 00:22
      bitcoin is THE network. It doesn't depend on anyone or anything.
  • TR
    Tobias R.
    29 September 2020 @ 13:11
    Agree with the deflationary tendency described but still think the view of tech and what it will achieve in the near-term is hyperbolic. I have worked for most of my career in business roles in Silicon Valley companies and have become much more tempered in my expectations on technology. The CEOs, Engineering and Product Teams always have grandiose visions on what they will achieve and they are great storytellers, but delivery usually way underperform expectations. Having seen product roadmap after product roadmap fail to deliver, I now feel engineers usually only able to solve simplistic problems, especially in the real world. Not to make this an empty statement I am happy give some examples: - Autonomous driving - if anyone believes this is that close I believe you are fooling yourselves. It will be years and years until it reaches (1) sufficient technology and (2) a price point where it can outcompete delivery drivers. And unless every warehouse in America adopt the same standard for how you enter and unload goods with standardized robots the full automation of goods flows is far far off. But with Silicon Valley talking their book people are already choosing not becoming truck drivers because they've read in the media they will be displaced, so the industry is short drivers. Great. - Diagnostics - IBM's Watson was supposed to make Doctor's Cancer diagnosis a thing off the past, a much more accurate data driven analytics would displace it. This was early 2010s. Fast forward 10 years and while it has some uses it is not near even being a fully reliable breast cancer (the simplest cancer) diagnostics tool. - Google Ads: For all of that data they are collecting, profiling me and allegedly knowing my innermost secrets, the Ad software usually just shows me exactly the same pair of shoes I viewed last week, collected from my cookies. Agree there is some very scary tricks like picking up a conversation about painting the house on my whats-app and finding that I suddenly get paint commercials but on the whole it seems like they have no better model of predicting what then can sell me than nudging me on items I am already interested in. Some will say no doubt that Facebook and Google also planted the idea of what to buy into me prior to me looking forward in the first place but honestly think that effect is overstated. - If anyone has any useful house robots that are close to displacing any humanoid tasks of any atoms task of significance greater than lawn moving and vacuum cleaning I would love to learn more Raoul - given your healthy skepticism of the Fed and their dot plots that they never manage to deliver on you should apply the same and not to be such a technology fanboy. Go back and review Tech CEO statements on how they would change the world and how fast change was coming the last few years and I believe it will be a sobering experience. If we were even close to the visions we would have A LOT better products and software than we have. Development in tech is much more linear than exponential. Huge sidetrack on a minor part of the conversation here but this technology evangelism is starting to concern me more and more. Great conversation overall - really enjoyed it and strengthen my own deflationary views, very good to get the tech perspective on this in addition to the macro, just believe the impact cannot be taken at face value from people with vested interests in the industry.
    • ea
      edwin a.
      2 October 2020 @ 22:11
      I very much agree that, while this is another great discussion about critical issues, it really only presents these issues from one side. There is a serious need on RV for greater skepticism toward this whole thesis, starting from the fundamental premises and working upward. RV is stretching past the point of "technology evangelism" into a kind of fatalism. You owe it to your viewers to present some speakers who have less extreme / apocalyptic views. I think one good common sense, reality check is to ask how is tech doing during the recent COVID lockdowns? While a certain segment of society and the economy -- including the trading / investing folks -- can function reasonably well on screens and videoconference all day, that does not apply to many, many other sectors. Some entire sectors (education being the biggest one) are literally seizing up due to the inability of teachers to succeed through a tech-centered teaching a learning approach. Tech evangelists have been predicting the mass replacement of the in-person, classroom-centered teaching model for years, but this crisis has shown that there is literally no level of education, from kindergarten to university, where students are accepting the screen-centered approach. To put it simply, students hate it. They want to go back to school. It's also worth looking at machine learning. I work with machine learning / AI most every day, and while it certainly allows new insights, AI is exploding at the same time that data is exploding, and my sense is that jobs (human jobs) are growing in this area along with the data and AI. In other words, it's not at all clear that the AI is really replacing people, but rather adding new tools, processes, and tons of information that, in turn, need people to review, analyze, communicate, convince. The jobs are changing, but not really disappearing. I am a researcher, and my work is in many fundamental ways very similar to how it used to be, I just work with more information, more quickly. This is definitely an improvement. But it's not the kind exponential, deflationary trend this guest asserts. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, I think it is important that at least *one* RV guest at some point (ever!) addresses the issue that the dominance of tech behemoths has at least as much to do with monopoly / monopsony power as it does a kind of abstract, inevitable, exponential march of progress and efficiency. Google, Facebook, Microsoft and Amazon all make great products and services. But they are not shockingly better than many of the products that came before (there are other very good search engines, there have been other interesting and good social platforms, there have been many good office software providers). Man users of all of these services spend more time complaining about them as they do praising them. One reason -- not the only one, but an important one -- that these are household names is that competing businesses have been destroyed. It's not irrelevant that US anti-trust law has largely languished for 40-50 years. It's important to kick the tires on these "big think" perspectives. But they need to be tested by at least occasional skepticism and competing views....
    • ml
      michael l.
      10 October 2020 @ 19:53
      Gnarly interview. Does seem overly apocalyptic, but it fits a pattern of conspiracy theory behavior that seems to be on the rise everywhere. Not sure why...maybe just a response to accelerating change.
    • JD
      John D.
      20 January 2021 @ 20:52
      Radical innovation is always unexpected and comes from the outliers. Look at Wright Bros., Henry Ford, etc. They figure something out on their own and nobody believes them. All the "expert" of the time has been dismissing it. It's not that all innovation will succeed. It's that the one of 10,000 will succeed so much that it will eat the entire previous economy.
  • MR
    Michael R.
    13 October 2020 @ 21:45
    This was the most essential RV video ever.
  • SL
    Simon L.
    9 October 2020 @ 16:36
    Bought his book the price of tomorrow, really interesting stuff. Thanks you RV you have wonderful guess with great insight.
  • RS
    Ravinder S.
    9 October 2020 @ 10:10
    Great video thanks RV!
  • MC
    Mike C.
    9 October 2020 @ 03:05
    When inflation comes and governments are fighting out of control currency devaluation we should expect emphasis on capital controls. We should expect that everyone entering or leaving a physical border will have their luggage/person searched for precious metals and hard crypto wallets and confiscated (or at least heavily fined/taxed). These rules are already in place now. If you are leaving the country now the law requires that you declare if you have anything valuable over a certain limit (eg $10000). If you don't declare it you are breaking the law and customs can confiscate your property.
  • AP
    Alfonso P.
    8 October 2020 @ 22:04
    Amazing and brilliant discussion!
  • DS
    David S.
    1 October 2020 @ 18:53
    Wickedly thought provoking!! Ty Raoul and Jeff
  • HB
    Hugo B.
    29 September 2020 @ 11:22
    "Way bigger force than money printing can be" How so? The kind of money printing we have seen so far has pretty much only reached assets. We are only starting to open the floodgates and seeing UBI and MMT type of printing.
  • DT
    Daniel T.
    26 September 2020 @ 21:09
    Just wait until secular deflation hits RV subscription fees!!
    • RA
      Robert A.
      28 September 2020 @ 21:09
      I’m sure Milton will make a “hedonistic” adjustment and everything will remain the same 😏
  • GF
    Gordon F.
    28 September 2020 @ 17:10
    I have stated in several places that we are headed either for a deflationary depression or a hyper-inflationary depression. To have this opinion supported by Jeff, coming at it from a different perspective, makes me more confident in my opinion, but leaves me much more worried as well. I don't think the world can go through a depression of either sort without major military conflicts, the likes of which we have not seen since WWII, and possibly much worse. I hope I am wrong.
  • FL
    Fabrizio L.
    28 September 2020 @ 10:03
    ...why do I trust a piece of paper that can be manipulated? .... I do not trust it! ....why do I not rust this other thing that can not be manipulated..... because I am not sure it can not be manipulated, because it relies on other devices, networks and energy to exist, because even tough I own it I am not sure I will be able to access it in the moment of need, because there are other assets that can not be manipulated that I can choose to own, that I can posses and have a proven track record as stores of value.
  • DS
    David S.
    24 September 2020 @ 22:51
    Mr. Booth promotes Bitcoin, but I think he realizes that cash generating companies are the best answer to profitable investments that will weather any storm. It does not matter if we are in an inflationary or deflationary environment, cash flow companies will do well. That is why AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, NFLX etc. are doing so well. Gold, Bitcoin, etc. balance the package. It does not hurt his cash flow to be on a lot of BOD either. He will pick up a lot of information and a few bucks. DLS
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      27 September 2020 @ 21:52
      Re cash flow companies, agreed. I Was just listening to an interview (from earlier this month, and on a different platform) with Charles Gave. A high quality, cash generating company that is expected to be around in 15-20 years. It's not just tech growth stocks. They may go down 50% to later come back. But, one's capital will not be lost. Aside from the existential crises that seem to be percolating with more frequency, a bit of good news is that both Europe and the U.S., and the West in general, have large, successful corporations of high quality that spit out cash.
  • GH
    Gregory H.
    27 September 2020 @ 08:39
    Here is innovation and deflation coming in housing...
  • wm
    wayne m.
    27 September 2020 @ 03:45
    Again I CANT stress enough how grateful I am to be part of real vision and get this kind of information that I would never dream I could afford and I mean that I scratched together enough money to be a member and I am so grateful to Raul and his team for helping members like myself. I Thank you from the bottom of my heart and if at some point I can afford to be a plus member I will gladly throw in the extra money to get your personal recommendations. Thank you again for all you do for us. Best Regards Wayne Marriott
  • BK
    Brian K.
    26 September 2020 @ 19:56
    I like this conversation but I disagree that "They see the price of goods rising. I'm not sure the price of goods are rising. I think their wages are deflating.JEFF BOOTH: That's what's happening. That's what's happening. " Wages are going up but health care, day care, college, housing are going up faster. It's only consumer products due to globalism that are deflationary or digital products that scale so well.
    • AS
      Arjan S.
      26 September 2020 @ 23:07
      It’s just another way of looking at it. If you assume that healthcare procedures and education are have a consistent utility (e.g., a arterial bypass surgery or masters degree 2020 is as useful to person now as it was in 1980) has about the over time (big assumption), then those services going up in nominal currency terms represents a decrease in the currency’s purchasing power. It’s a contrived example, but how many TV’s would it have cost to pay for one year of college in 1980 versus 2020. An average TV in 1980 cost around $500 USD [1]. In 2020 it is about $300. For private colleges, the average cost of tuition and board in 1980 was $6600 [3] versus about $43000 now. [4] So what costs about 14 TVs in 1980 now costs about 144 TVs, so roughly 10X in TV terms versus 7x in USD term. I guess the point I’m trying to illustrate here is that a currency is just a useful common denominator to measure the value of goods at a particular fixed point in time. Over time both value of the currency relative to a good, and the value of a good relative to another good can shift dramatically. So you can have nominal wages (currency) go up, the cost of consumer goods (TVs) in that currency go down, and the cost of services (college) in that currency go up, and still argue that wages on the whole are deflating (losing real purchasing power) at the same time. Wages deflating and service costs inflating are just flip sides of the same coin. [1]: [2]: [3]: [4]: (Note: prices here are for the 2018 school year)
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    26 September 2020 @ 18:45
    Every time I get a bit jaundiced with RVTV, along comes an interview like this. Loved it.
  • MJ
    Marc J.
    26 September 2020 @ 15:34
    I'd be depressed but for my agreement. A few years ago I understood that something bad was going to happen to humanity but I didn't know what or when. Eventually (Jan this year) I start studying finance, because it's probably the most forward looking industry of them all. Another all new best ever interview :) thanks.
  • RD
    Rodney D.
    26 September 2020 @ 14:51
    Fun Education question while I am watching college football today. When colleges fail/cut back etc because others can provide a better educational experience cheaper, what is going to happen to college football?? Do they have an exit strategy I wonder and what could that be?
  • RC
    Romesh C.
    26 September 2020 @ 07:41
    Great interview Raoul and Jeff. There was one part of the interview where Raoul made a comment along the lines of... and I'm paraphrasing here.... "most people don't understand why deflation is good for bitcoin, but it is"... but then didn't expand on this further. This is something I'm trying to get my head around myself so I was disappointed they didn't explain this... has anyone else cracked this nut?
    • JW
      J W.
      26 September 2020 @ 08:02
      My take....deflation leads to money printing which leads to currency debasement and asset deflation = good for bitcoin
    • RA
      Robert A.
      26 September 2020 @ 14:21
      Nice succinct and accurate summation JW, IMO.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    25 September 2020 @ 15:24
    Strong case for the deflation argument...I can't disagree. Humble request to invite back Kevin Muir (Macro Tourist) for a counter-argument. If memory serves, prior to converting his free newsletter to a paid one, he had a more inflationary view... I'm torn between both points of views as both are solid...
    • SL
      Sean L.
      26 September 2020 @ 12:06
      I'm not sure they'd disagree - it's not that jeff doesn't think we'll see inflation from money printing just that it will create an increasingly unstable foundation in a real world that's fundamentally moving the other direction.
  • EP
    Emma P.
    26 September 2020 @ 12:05
    Raoul, I was thinking about your comments on education and the idea of creating an RV university. Given the quality of the content on Real Vision, one thing you should consider in the near term is getting your organization accredited by the various professional organizations, accountants, lawyers etc as a provider of CPE / training. My professional association requires that I undergo 20 hours of CPE annually. This usually means I have to pay to attend courses by accredited trainers. If RV could get accredited then I could satisfy my CPE requirements by learning from the best on RV. It would add a great deal of value to my RV subscription, saving both time and money. Fascinating interview. I went straight to Amazon and bought the book. Immediately downloaded to my Kindle and Audible iPhone account. The power of tech and the internet demonstrated! Valuable content distributed instantly and almost without cost. No paper or postage required!
  • CD
    Christopher D.
    25 September 2020 @ 21:33
    Charlie Rose interviews James Goldsmith Far-sighted reasons can't find myopic consensus.
    • CD
      Christopher D.
      25 September 2020 @ 22:24 The Trap pdf
    • DF
      David F.
      26 September 2020 @ 11:33
      Many thanks
  • DF
    David F.
    26 September 2020 @ 11:31
    Raoul, this was the most important piece of content you have generated to date. Brilliant.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    25 September 2020 @ 18:09
    Been with RV almost since the beginning and so far THIS is the best Video I’ve watched...and that statement is a difficult one to make as I have MANY favorite ones.....wait for it....CONTENT IS ALMOST FREE, BUT RV CURATION IS INVALUABLE, IMHO.
    • AG
      Andrew G.
      26 September 2020 @ 09:19
      You took the words right out of my mouth - one of the VERY best.
  • JA
    Jonathan A.
    26 September 2020 @ 02:53
    Just subscribed to Plus to view this video. It answered a lot of questions I had about the end game of central bank printing. Mind blowing, life-altering content.
  • WM
    Will M.
    26 September 2020 @ 02:25
    Just excellent thought provoking stuff.
  • AT
    ALAN T.
    25 September 2020 @ 20:56
  • CN
    Christopher N.
    25 September 2020 @ 20:32
    What a fascinating conversation and so very few people understand these forces that are rapidly changing our world . This one interview is worth was my year’s subscription! THANK YOU. Grabbing more of that life boat each month!
  • CS
    Chris S.
    25 September 2020 @ 18:45
    Is the 185 Trillion stimulus number referred to a Global number?
    • CD
      Christopher D.
      25 September 2020 @ 20:28
      not stimulus, global debt accumulated in the last 20y they said (p.19 of pdf transcript)
  • JH
    Joseph H.
    25 September 2020 @ 19:27
    Hey Jeff, I loved your book. Really interesting and very accurate in my opinion. Thank you
  • SS
    Suleiman S.
    25 September 2020 @ 19:00
    Booth highlights the debt bubble and deflation..bitcoin is certainly not the answer as the problems will be perpetuated in other ways...the only way ( and it is utopian admittedly) is to go beyond debt...and that means a complete reengineering of a society whose desires and wants are largely manufactured...and so it is unlikely to happen..bitcoin will help because it will instill low time preference but bitcoin is not enough
  • RC
    Rob C.
    25 September 2020 @ 06:28
    Hi - Whats the name of the Ag Anywhere business on the TSE?
    • PG
      Philippe G.
      25 September 2020 @ 14:45
      CubicFarm Systems Corp. (TSXV:CUB) - Like the concept, but note that Jeff wasn't super enthusiastic about their current situation...reading between the lines...
  • LK
    Lana K.
    25 September 2020 @ 13:18
    Fascinating, far-reaching, exciting discussion. I just heard Jeff Booth on a different Youtube video, and glad to see that RV is adding to the momentum on this important discussion. Bitcoin could be a lifeboat for the average person, but it's still not the easiest thing to access and it isn't big enough to save billions of people. What we increasingly need urgently is all the brightest minds you tap into to not only identify the problems (which they do so brilliantly), but to help formulate possible solutions and promote them at scale. Central banks and governments are becoming increasingly impotent. We need really bright and capable entrepreneurs -- and frankly, the large-cap FAANGs and others are not pulling their weight -- to put their minds to the problem, raise their voices, and drive improvements to all of society instead of exacerbating the problems.
  • KS
    KEVIN S.
    25 September 2020 @ 13:12
    Out of all the great interviews on RV, I personally find the Booth interviews the most thought provoking and keep me up at night thinking about where it could all eventually lead and it concerns me. In nature, the weak and non-productive (self sufficient ) die. In capitalism, as in nature we all agree that the weak and non-productive companies should be allowed to die and that artificially preventing that event (Zombie companies) keeps things artificially high, inefficient and non-productive and a drain on the economy. But the thing that separates human beings from the natural world is that we don't allow our weak to die...that's what makes us human. But as more and more people are displaced by technology with less need or opportunity for them to add to productivity and providing them with income in order to consume, they become the same as the Zombie companies draining from the whole and a breaking point where the system can't artificially support them any longer. Is there a horrifying point in the future where global governments cross the line of humanity and begin talking about the necessity of population control? It's happened before in isolated regions and governments...but can it become global? What kind of world can we be headed towards? Is it inevitable or can it be prevented and how? I find it disturbingly difficult to wrap my head around.
  • RR
    Ringo R.
    25 September 2020 @ 03:29
    Loved the interview. Agree with all that was said.....except talk around the newness of the issue. Our long term history is full of massive productivity leaps. Steam engines, rail roads, electricity. Although to be fair Jeff Booth said deflation is the "Natural state of affairs". That is, with a fixed, or at least largely fixed, monetary system. More stuff, same amount of money = lower prices. With regard to Central Bankers / Politicians and "Do they understand what is happening?" I say yes, but are trapped. No one wants the 'reckoning' to happen on their shift. See Greenspan's essay from 1967 "Gold and Economic Freedom" (OK Happy to substitute BTC for Gold) Ron Paul use to ask Greenspan year after year about monetary inflation at the Humphrey Hawkins testimony and about how bad it was and Big Al's stock reply was "You guys (government) are in charge of the system design, i just run it for you, so back off." The fix in the end has to involve a leveling of the wealth inequalities. Neither Gold nor BTC do this. Not every one can get in the life raft. Gold/BTC would have stopped it happening in the first place if our monetary system used them. But it is too late for that. By the way i am right wing / Austrian Eco type person but i also value my life and are therefore keen to avoid a "French Revolution" style exit. I think talk of MMT and Central Bank Digital Currencies by our central planners is because they are preparing to level the wealth inequalities using these tools.
    • AM
      Aaron M.
      25 September 2020 @ 12:11
      Is it more likely those behind the current system -- those in power and with control -- produce a new method of continuing the current hegemony (and that isn't necessarily restricted to the nationalistic meaning), or that they level wealth inequality and completely change the power structure in the process? That's a bit too Utopian for our current controllers, as they're the ones deeply invested in maintaining it. How could they all be convinced if they don't equalize wealth, the entire system collapses? The variety of views among some of the smartest financial people on the planet could not predict what happened in the past six months, nor do are they in agreement on what's coming. Somehow these current indoctrinated, institutional collaborators are going to all decide everything needs to change? Even just thinking about what this would take in the U.S. alone is mind-boggling, much less trying to think about global agreements between, at the very least, all of the main economic players -- many of whom are part of the BRICS initiative doing everything they can to separate themselves from the current nationalistic hegemony. Is it not more likely this CBDC is a desperate last attempt to maintain the class system and pacify the populace a bit longer? As has been stated so many times, including in this interview, they have a very limited toolset to work with and this is just an extension of that -- only the CBDC puts the liquidity into the pockets of the populace also instead of corporations. It doesn't solve the problem. This is why the logical conclusion many of the smartest macro (not necessarily just financial-focused) people arrive at is a very unpleasant (to put it mildly) transition to a new system. Society will very likely be on the brink of collapse unless people can somehow come together. A unified enemy for the entire world to rally around, maybe? Corona only drove everyone further apart. It's up to each of us to try to prepare as best we can for what's coming. I choose not to put hope in a Utopia. Human nature doesn't lead down that path.
  • GH
    Guy H.
    25 September 2020 @ 11:58
    On year worth of RV value delivered in one interview. These two Jeff Booth interviews are compelling viewing. Thanks Raoul and team for bringing such high quality thought leaders to this platform.
  • JV
    Jerry V.
    25 September 2020 @ 09:56
    Thank you RV team, Raoul and of course Jeff. Yet another incredible rabbit hole of learning to explore. Jeff's book The Price of Tomorrow is on my list of must reads. Pura Vida
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    25 September 2020 @ 09:06
    Once people watch The Social Dilemma, this talk may not age so well Agreed on Bitcoin
  • JS
    Jon S.
    25 September 2020 @ 09:03
    I love rv plus the only issue is that I put so many books on my list to read because I like to go to the source of ideas... I need 40 hours/days. Thanks RV Plus! Great service with reasonable price!
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    25 September 2020 @ 08:01
    Bottom-line...society breaks And that, is inflationary Money will move from corporates, who waste money on buybacks (near zero velocity) and dividends and money ends up with people (high velocity)
  • SL
    Sean L.
    24 September 2020 @ 22:54
    Amazing interview - Raoul mentioned a interview with James Goldsmith... it's a must watch in order to understand the past 25 years and the current US political situation: Also, there's a nice dovetail in here w/ what Michael Saylor was saying about everything being a tech company. Deflation hits every industry because every significant business is a technology business.
    • RR
      Ringo R.
      25 September 2020 @ 05:13
      Not lacking in confidence is he?
  • RR
    Ringo R.
    25 September 2020 @ 02:26
    James Goldsmith wrote a very interesting book in 1994 call "The Trap" it was, and no doubt still is, a great read. "Essays on the major social, economic, and environmental issues threatening our society. The answers to these questions, and the solutions proposed, will determine the shape of our society in the twenty-first century." He faced a very bit of criticism for it and followed it up by another book called "The Response" where he addressed each major criticism one by one. "Sir James Goldsmith’s previous book, The Trap, warned that global free trade and GATT would create unemployment and poverty in the industrialised world while, at the same time, ravaging the third world. This brought a torrent of rejection from the critics. Here Sir James answers his critics and, point by point, explains why they are wrong."
    • RP
      Raoul P. | Founder
      25 September 2020 @ 02:27
      yes, read it a few times. Some parts her got wrong and others DEAD right. Most right than wrong by a long way.
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    25 September 2020 @ 02:11
    When he talks about borders don’t matter if everyone is working remote, this true. It may actually be tragic for many white collar jobs in the US and perhaps Europe. I’ve seen it start at my own workplace, a well known tech company. May come for me soon enough. Good if you own the Tech company but very tough on rank and file tech employees.
  • JS
    John S.
    25 September 2020 @ 00:33
    Outstanding discussion
  • SY
    Shiva Y.
    24 September 2020 @ 17:37
    Jeff Booth has been on a lot of back to back interviews explaining and educating people about the cunning collapse of the global economy. His book “The Price of Tomorrow” is the one of the best books to come after “The Bitcoin Standard”. He’s been tirelessly expounding his thesis that deflation is the inevitable outcome and deflation is a blessing to the mankind. But we can’t transition there without some economic turmoil and he’s on a mission to ease it as much as possible. A true visionary and a benefactor to mankind! Thanks Real Vision to bring him back! A masterclass!
    • PB
      PHILLIP B.
      25 September 2020 @ 00:26
      Do readers who have read “The Price of Tomorrow” consider it well written in the same sense that "The Bitcoin Standard" is a 'beautiful book'?
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    24 September 2020 @ 21:29
    Absolutely fantastic interview. Might be the most insightful and fascinating interview I’ve seen on RV all year. Incredible.
    • JH
      Jesse H.
      24 September 2020 @ 22:12
      I would like to partially retract the statement above. It was a very interesting conversation, but I am concerned about the potential for this hypertechnological direction to (1) dishonour and squelch human dignity, and (2) control us in ways which cut us off from life itself. Thanks.