Macro: A Framework for Truth – Live with Raoul Pal & Lyn Alden

Published on
August 18th, 2020
Duration
60 minutes

The Gold Currency Connection and Using Options to Trade Gold – Live with Alexander Campbell


Macro: A Framework for Truth – Live with Raoul Pal & Lyn Alden

Live ·
Featuring Raoul Pal & Lyn Alden

Published on: August 18th, 2020 • Duration: 60 minutes

The unprecedented nature of everything going on today has made topics such as the viability of fiat currencies, USD reserve status, Bitcoin, monetary/fiscal policy, and precious metals the talk of the town. Everyone is now wondering what these things mean and how they will impact their lives moving forward. No doubt, questions abound. However, by using macroeconomics as a lens, one can begin to understand not just what these seemingly complicated things are, but how their interrelated nature can impact the world around us. Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy recently did an Expert View where she laid out many of her positions on these concepts and how they fit into her strategy. For this segment of Real Vision Live, we’ve invited her back to sit down with Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, for a macro masterclass where they will dive into these different areas in an attempt to understand where we are, and more importantly, where we may end up.

Comments

Transcript

  • RG
    Reon G.
    8 September 2020 @ 07:02
    Admin, I have tried to watch this interview about 6- 8 times on various days... It reports an error and freezes??
  • MS
    Michael S.
    4 September 2020 @ 04:03
    Very impressive. Lyn Alden seems to be one of the smartest people on RV lately. Her "base case" of what's basically the progression of MMT seems spot on. Not saying she's a proponent of MMT, but what she laid out as what's likely to happen is MMT. I completely agree. I'm going to get her newsletter. https://www.lynalden.com/ Sorry, Raoul, the inflation genie has to come out. A deval to gold is the only way out of this. Growth is not an option.
  • SW
    Stephen W.
    20 August 2020 @ 12:41
    is it just me or does Raoul seem a little irritated / dismissive at times during this?
    • NA
      Nicolaie A.
      20 August 2020 @ 19:49
      I think he was just a bit intimidated by Lyn :) And rightly so, she’s brilliant!
    • MS
      Michael S.
      4 September 2020 @ 03:50
      Agree with Nicolaie. Maybe Raoul isn't used to a woman who might be smarter than he is?
  • RC
    Rafael C.
    1 September 2020 @ 02:37
    Great interview - loved the review of all major asset classes
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    25 August 2020 @ 08:08
    Everyone focused on demand-pull inflation (demographics, debt) and not that much on cost-push inflation (import duties, weak FX, increased bankruptcies reducing supply, fiscal spending having a different velocity of money...and so forth)
  • LA
    Lyn A. | Contributor
    20 August 2020 @ 20:08
    Thanks for watching everyone. Sorry for my internet issues at the beginning and end (of course they had to happen during a *live* event), but thankfully I think we got a great discussion in there during the bulk of it.
    • NM
      Nicholas M.
      23 August 2020 @ 00:24
      Thanks Lynn, you and Raoul make a great team and the subtle differences in your thesis and strategies is the perfect mix!
    • KT
      Kai T.
      23 August 2020 @ 23:40
      I didn't watch this live, so with the editing, I barely noticed your connectivity problems. A great discussion. I felt like this was one of the best conversations between Raoul in and a guest. It seemed Raoul could ask a question in his own thinking without having to worry about modifying it for another mind because though you both think somewhat differently, you could speak the same dialect. I hope to see Lyn on again soon.
    • SB
      Stewart B.
      24 August 2020 @ 16:42
      Lyn - I wish you were in charge of our central banks. Your thinking and non-dogmatic (ie data driven) approach is a league ahead of their 'academic' economists.
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    24 August 2020 @ 16:39
    Fantastic. Lyn Alden is the newest and sharpest mind in macro. As someone who also has a background in control systems engineering, I appreciate how this paradgm is useful for studying economics. One piece of feedback. The interviewer spoke way too much. We are viewing this to get Lyn's opinions and analysis.
  • KB
    Kurt B.
    24 August 2020 @ 07:07
    Davey DT has now exited BTC/Crypto. Making him irresponsibly short.
  • MB
    Michael B.
    23 August 2020 @ 16:07
    She is very good. Her letter is $25 a month. She charges one month at a time so you can stop it at any time and the charges. I highly recommend it.
  • DF
    David F.
    20 August 2020 @ 20:23
    I just bit the Bitcoin this week, (Grayscale) and I don't like it, but I also don't like any of my positions. This Bitcoin stuff is the most speculative product I've ever bet on, and I trade mining companies! I'm hoping to open a bit of dialog with anyone with regard to Bitcoin. What's your chosen product? By that I mean: Are you trading directly with a crypto exchange? What's your position sizing? What's your time frame? And, at what price are you planning on leaving? If you have experience trading with Grayscale products, please, somebody tell me how Etherium is trading at it's current price, and why their Bitcoin ETF is so low? Thanks.
    • GH
      Gloria H.
      21 August 2020 @ 11:32
      Join the RV slack channel - great discussions there on crypto markets and real-time “lessons learned.”
    • AB
      Andrew B.
      22 August 2020 @ 02:42
      @Gloria H - How do I get the invite link to join the RV slack channel?
    • SW
      Sarah W.
      22 August 2020 @ 16:33
      Honestly, if you’re this fresh, start by reading The Bitcoin Standard by Saffidean Ammous. It breaks down monetary history and how Bitcoin fits into this as a hard asset nicely. Review Jameson Lopp & Andreas Antonopolous’ Youtube videos, particularly his hearing with the Canadian senate. Personally, I’ve been “irresponsibly long” for a couple of years now. I add a ‘dollar cost average’ every pay check to build a position over the medium to long term. Don’t see Bitcoin as a ‘get rich quick’ scheme, more ‘exit fiat slow’. I buy from Coinbase but have a cold storage Trezor wallet that I transfer my Bitcoin to after buying on the exchange. Am I planning on leaving? Never! Learn about the halving cycle, stock to flow and difficulty adjustment when researching to understand the macro cycle and what makes Bitcoin unique. You can choose perhaps to enter and exit based upon the halving cycles, but my long term goal is to own enough Bitcoin until the point it is accepted widely as monetary unit of exchange. That may be too much for some, but I have a strong conviction that this is where we’re heading, and traditional finance will be left behind.
  • AW
    Abigail W.
    22 August 2020 @ 12:00
    Lynn rocked it again.
    • rh
      richard h.
      22 August 2020 @ 13:16
      XX a hgme aaaa much. XX. Zz. X z zzzoapyLpln
  • SW
    Stephen W.
    21 August 2020 @ 10:07
    If Raoul doesn't think they are going to get inflation off the ground then what is the outcome regarding massive debt burdens? This is what I can't square with the deflationist argument, they surely will just throw it around like confetti before suffering the final nail in the coffin of deflation?
  • EC
    Earl C.
    21 August 2020 @ 04:36
    Lynn thesis that 40 yrs of deflation is in it's late theories is back up by the ongoing pull back from globalization + increase in wars & skirmishes in the ME boiling over to north Africa Turkey, Greece Cypress etc. That China vs US soon to compete for both market share & in the market for resources & commodities. It'a a new old world Raoul!
  • ac
    aishwarya c.
    21 August 2020 @ 03:11
    She has such strong, clear and concise thoughts and opinions. Lovely interview, also good to see Raoul back mid-week.
  • CM
    Cory M.
    20 August 2020 @ 22:37
    Often I find Lyn difficult to follow, but not here. Raoul was a great interviewer. Her super macro view is so great. Some of the feedback loops she describes are quite interesting. Thank you, Lyn.
  • TM
    Troy M.
    20 August 2020 @ 21:18
    Thanks, Lyn! I am a Process Controls Engineer also (Allen-Bradley/Rockwell) with a Chem E background. I would love to work in finance one day (I think). You are super smart and inspiring!
  • AG
    Amol G.
    19 August 2020 @ 20:09
    Really informative and valuable discussion. Thanks Lyn and Raoul! Question: I've heard Lyn talk about Equities in ratio to Gold and Raoul talk about Gold as a ratio to other currencies. Where can we find these charts? Only on Bloomberg?
    • LA
      Lyn A. | Contributor
      20 August 2020 @ 20:06
      Besides Bloomberg, folks can build ratio charts on platforms like YCharts.com and StockCharts.com.
  • NA
    Nicolaie A.
    20 August 2020 @ 19:48
    One of the best interviews ever on RV
  • PM
    Patrick M.
    19 August 2020 @ 19:18
    Lyn is really great. Precise and to the point.
    • BR
      Ben R.
      20 August 2020 @ 00:13
      Yeah, she is such a quality thinker and is clear. I can’t fault her on the basis for the thoughts she has. Fantastic content!
    • AP
      Alfonso P.
      20 August 2020 @ 13:50
      more women in RV, they are much more to the point!
  • VK
    VIKRAM K.
    20 August 2020 @ 12:07
    She's brilliant. Bring her on more often!
  • DF
    David F.
    20 August 2020 @ 08:11
    Lyn's point of the drip drip fiscal is identical to the debt growth. People took interest only debt because there appeared to be no punishment for their behaviour.
  • wj
    wiktor j.
    20 August 2020 @ 07:31
    Crytpos vs dollar: As some are saying on the show. Its not a given that we are talking about dollar weakness but euro strength. When this goes away dollar would spike again. I think Raul is still correct on the eur/usd. But I think the short should come at 1.20 ish. Raul is just early.
  • MV
    Mark V.
    20 August 2020 @ 06:49
    If the Fed monetises corporate bonds, won't that money then appear on company balance sheets to continue the buy-back train, hence lifting equities?
  • MD
    Matt D.
    20 August 2020 @ 05:21
    Nice discussion Raoul and Lyn, thanks! I am surprised there is not more "debate" or discussion (here on RV) regarding the idea of the halving and BTC's price. I have been wondering about the price of Bitcoin and why it seems to be too low wrt to the macro etc. I could go on about the negatives (most only focus on the positives) etc. but for now - the supply side of it is interesting and it was interesting to hear Lyn mention it (after she spent some time looking for some price indicators for bitcoin). She was seeing it as a positive (the halving meaning less supply coming to the market) - yet that general point is perhaps interesting to consider. My general question would be - does Bitcoin trade as a free commodity? Thinking that there are a few big whales, plus the interest rate connected to it's lending would suggest there would be some (?exchanges ?) who might like to "control" the price. The supply is sort of constantly increasing - demand possible more a "free" or independent variable. Be interested in discussing this side of Bitcoin. To me there is a lot of hype, ignorance too on the tech (I have limited knowledge on the physical tech, but the conceptual have a good idea) and unusual price movement. Ethereum seems like a dud - a good idea but the motivation and governance seems inferior to BTC - yet it was going gangbusters. Surprising. BTC - how big is the blockchain now - a small hard drive v 1 dollar bill fiat. Perhaps more of an ideological discussion, yet Raoul mentioned it being a replacement currency, and that it will receive more allocation from funds as its value goes up. I can trade it regardless. Feel many are possibly just doing that.
  • BE
    Benjamin E.
    20 August 2020 @ 04:53
    I love Lyn's work. Value investing, bottom up analysis chops, but informed by macro trends. This is the kind of mind I can notes from.
  • BG
    Brian G.
    20 August 2020 @ 03:39
    Another great discussion. Lyn is definitely one of my favorites on RV!
  • mB
    marc B.
    20 August 2020 @ 01:21
    Lynn is a great addition.
  • CA
    Carlos A.
    20 August 2020 @ 00:46
    Phenomenal points of current Macro view, The BTC segment I definitely do resonate with!
  • DT
    Diego T.
    19 August 2020 @ 23:09
    Great show. Where there's disagreement I learn alot. Mostly because I listen.. This is why I subscribed. Thanks Raul
  • ED
    Eric D.
    19 August 2020 @ 19:29
    If someone is a blank slate on EM, where should they start? Any suggestions on books, newsletters, etc would be greatly appreciated.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      19 August 2020 @ 19:35
      Here a three different recent perspectives on EM. Hedge fund manager: https://www.realvision.com/shows/live/videos/the-world-beyond-our-shores-live-with-michael-nicoletos Asset allocator: https://www.realvision.com/shows/live/videos/em-the-last-frontier-live-with-arjun-divecha Stock picker: https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview/videos/emerging-market-investing-youre-doing-it-wrong
    • AI
      Andras I.
      19 August 2020 @ 22:49
      I would also add the Tassos Stassopoulos interview (with none other than Max himself!) - really enjoyable! https://www.realvision.com/shows/the-interview/videos/emerging-market-investing-youre-doing-it-wrong Oh..and read Jim Rogers. He's fun!
  • SL
    Stuart L.
    19 August 2020 @ 22:36
    Great discussion. My question/comment relates to the next major US fiscal stimulus bill of say $5T or more. If it is monetized by the Fed, the risk as I see it will be a significantly weaker US$ which may lead to a spike is US CPI inflation given the increased costs for US imports. If interest rates begin to rise given the inflation spike and the Fed implements yield curve control to keep interest rates from rising too much, this in my view may lead to more downward pressure on the US$. Bottom line: can the US engage in a massive fiscal stimulus of $5T or more, monetize the Treasury issuance and keep interest rates low without trashing the US$. I would appreciate Lyn's and Raoul's thoughts. Thanks, Stuart
  • BG
    Bob G.
    19 August 2020 @ 22:31
    Fantastic discussion - Lyn is one of my absolute favorite thinkers.
  • NL
    Nikola L.
    19 August 2020 @ 22:27
    copper long term and nickel short medium term should shine. Miners that produce battery grade Ni should do well.
  • SW
    Stephen W.
    19 August 2020 @ 21:08
    Really like Lyn, she's just so clear and concise. Be interesting to see how the inflation / deflation plays out. Difficult to find good trades at the moment, Bitcoin is my bet, not just for year and a half but for a decade.
  • RH
    Roger H.
    19 August 2020 @ 20:25
    Great discussion!
  • AM
    Alvaro M.
    19 August 2020 @ 20:12
    Getting savvier by the second on this clinic