Navigating Uninvestible Markets – Live with Bill Fleckenstein

Published on
January 7th, 2020
Duration
41 minutes

2020 Technical Outlook – Live with Peter Brandt and Dave Floyd


Navigating Uninvestible Markets – Live with Bill Fleckenstein

Live ·
Featuring Bill Fleckenstein

Published on: January 7th, 2020 • Duration: 41 minutes

Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital and prolific economic commenter, joins Real Vision’s Roger Hirst to offer his advice on how to navigate an “uninvestable market.” The author of “Greenspan’s Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve,” Fleckenstein explains his argument why the massive financial bubble created by the Fed’s extremely dovish policy presents a massive risk for investors.

Comments

Transcript

  • JA
    Jordan A.
    15 January 2020 @ 00:35
    Too many questions at once. Can't you just pitch them one at a time?
  • PM
    Paul M.
    14 January 2020 @ 16:20
    What was that last question? (Audio is miserable as mentioned.)
    • M.
      Milton .. | Founder
      14 January 2020 @ 18:33
      Probably this one: "And what's your favorite long?" It's all in the transcript of the talk if you need access to all the questions.
  • AO
    Anne O.
    13 January 2020 @ 19:25
    It's when China calls the Fed out on it
  • DS
    Dan S.
    13 January 2020 @ 17:52
    Idiotic politicians, bankers, and economists don't understand natural complex systems that have inflection points. The more money the FED injects the more deranged the markets and economy become and therefore the painful the eventual correction is.
  • Ja
    James a.
    12 January 2020 @ 06:01
    i don't understand the difference between RV access and the normal RV videos...
    • NP
      Nick P.
      12 January 2020 @ 06:34
      There is none, they closed down the old service and replaced it with something inferior.
    • JL
      J L.
      13 January 2020 @ 16:45
      the RV grab
  • VP
    Vincent P.
    13 January 2020 @ 14:45
    Great discussion. Always high energy with Bill in the room, Roger too.
  • JM
    Jim M.
    13 January 2020 @ 14:27
    Bill is always worth listening to but the term "uninvestible markets" has been associated with him for years. I've been invested during this time.
  • RM
    Ron M.
    10 January 2020 @ 09:26
    Please have Fleckenstein back more often. Simplicity is harder than complexity, and he knows how to distill things down vs. a lot of guests who overcomplicate things as they don't understand them as well as he does.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      13 January 2020 @ 04:59
      You can subscribe to his daily comments, he’s among the cheapest independent guys out there.
  • MS
    Matt S.
    13 January 2020 @ 02:07
    tl;dr - everything is f**ked - buy gold.
  • PV
    Paul V.
    13 January 2020 @ 00:17
    Great interview. Thanks to you and Bill. Really enjoy listening to his views.
  • BA
    Bruce A.
    12 January 2020 @ 04:41
    Re debt jubilee: I'm in the camp that bond prices and/or currencies would tank if governments and CB's just wiped the slate on govt bonds. I suspect that a slow deflation ala Japan today would still prove more palatable to policy makers than facing the market shocks of a sovereign bond jubilee (currency adjustments, asset repricing, contraction in lending). Public pension fund liabilities and student debt are another matter. As part of an MMT program funded with budget deficits (or even via Peoples QE), I could imagine some bail outs without too much immediate contagion although I don't know how large the Fed balance sheet would be after 'capitalizing' pension funds or taking over the liabilities. I can also imagine a Green New Deal or two going ahead without the equivalent chaos of a G7 sovereign debt write-off. As Bill points out, at some point psychology will turn. When the market understands that the Fed is directly funding govt deficits and the govt programs have gone hyperbolic, then holding govt liabilities will be less acceptable than at present. Could be that we are near enough to all this that inflation expectations are starting to rise and the yield curve steepening is nearly upon us.............I don't know and that's why I've got bits of all the various asset classes (including PM and cash).
  • KR
    Kenneth R.
    12 January 2020 @ 00:49
    Machines don't have psychology.
  • db
    david b.
    11 January 2020 @ 14:21
    Not sure when Bill says " we need proof that when the Fed stops the repo liquidity that the markets will go down" that we don't already have that evidence....just look to Q4 2018....when the markets lost confidence that the Fed would not stop QT the S&P declined 19.9%. The correlation of the feds balance sheet and the advance in the markets since the start of Q4 is basically 100%...any question?
    • RH
      Roger H. | Real Vision
      11 January 2020 @ 17:59
      Hi David - your observation about the balance sheet is correct. The last time the Fed's balance sheet declined on a week-on-week basis was mid November 2019 and that was the last time we saw a week-on-week decline in the S&P (with a 1 week lag). Now is going to be the BIG test: last week the Fed's balance sheet declined for the first time since Nov (-$24bn vs about -$17bn on that occasion in Nov) so next week is going to be a key barometer, especially now that we have also entered the buyback blackout period (where companies can't buy shares into earnings season, which kicks off properly next week). Bill's point was that we need the confirmation from the market before we pull the trigger on our shorts.
  • M.
    Milton .. | Founder
    11 January 2020 @ 11:58
    Hey folks Due to an internet connection issue that affected both the main and the backup connection, we had to go transatlantic to Roger at the last minute. The only alternative to the his room was the actual street which would have made for an interesting RV venue but not ideal for everyone else. Despite these issues I think this was one of the best live talks yet.
  • RY
    Ron Y.
    11 January 2020 @ 05:26
    Hey, guys, Sorry to criticize, especially because I thought the interview brilliant, but you really screwed up on the sound quality, especially on Roger's end, where at times key phrases were impossible to understand. Didn't anybody do a "sound-check"? Obviously not! If you had you would have put a $50 clip-on microphone on Roger's collar and that would have eliminated the problem entirely. At Flick's end, the echo was tolerable, but at Roger's end the sound quality was just miserable. Do better, please, to live up to the RVTV standards of excellence.
    • CM
      Carlos M.
      11 January 2020 @ 11:36
      maybe you have a problem on your end, sound was not great but I had not problems making out what he was saying..
  • RR
    Rex R.
    10 January 2020 @ 00:18
    Polite suggestion to Roger Hirst: Please ask the interviewee-- only ONE question at a time. It is hard for an interviewee--and the viewing public to follow-- when you ask the interviewee multiple questions in one go--
    • CH
      Charles H.
      10 January 2020 @ 23:59
      I hear what you’re saying. The advantage of multiple questions is that the interviewee is interrupted less often.
  • CH
    Charles H.
    10 January 2020 @ 23:58
    Great interview, interesting discussion. Thanks.
  • CD
    Cheryl D.
    10 January 2020 @ 22:50
    excellent interview - really enjoyed it!!
  • AP
    Adam P.
    10 January 2020 @ 18:33
    Great stuff. This is definitely one of my favorite interviews.
  • JO
    Jonathan O.
    10 January 2020 @ 18:21
    Try to record in smaller rooms guys it will help greatly with the reverb in the audio in the very large open rooms this video was made in.
  • JH
    Joel H.
    10 January 2020 @ 17:21
    awesome interview ...thanks v much
  • RM
    R M.
    9 January 2020 @ 19:43
    Always great to hear from Bill! Since his focus is on PM, would love to know his thoughts on total position size (or how Bill thinks about size) and if he is willing to share a fav name or two among the miners. If mentioned, I missed it. Thanks.
    • MB
      Michael B.
      10 January 2020 @ 01:37
      If my memory serves me well I think that if you look up Bill's last interview on RV he did share some mining stock ideas - hope I remembered correctly.
  • AK
    Arthur K.
    10 January 2020 @ 01:26
    Happy to see Roger Hirst back on RV TV.
  • JG
    James G.
    9 January 2020 @ 21:27
    Bill has always been interviewed in the past on R/V by Grant Williams. Haven't seen Grant on R/V for 6 months. This interview made me miss him.
  • RA
    Robert A.
    9 January 2020 @ 20:56
    The big wheel keeps on turning—I have been with RV almost since inception after being introduced to it by....wait for it...Bill Fleckenstein! Bill won’t blow his own horn so I’ll have to give it a toot—he offers a tremendous almost daily market analysis complete with subscriber questions which he attempts to answer and provides various insights into his current thinking for a cost that probably doesn’t cover his editorial and output costs. Bill and RV are an intricate part of by investment process mosaic. Oh...and another excellent effort by Roger, IMO.
  • DC
    Dale C.
    9 January 2020 @ 20:39
    Rogers' audio quality was the worst
  • JC
    John C.
    9 January 2020 @ 20:30
    Great interview. Bill on point as ever. Really interesting to see how he looks at the Fed's repo and how it's likely to be with us for awhile
  • JL
    Johnny L.
    9 January 2020 @ 20:07
    Yellen and Bernanke both said if stocks go down it all goes down everywhere. They may be making policy with that objective as the primary driver. Now they have to fund the US government. Boomer investments will be saved at any cost or price until something breaks.