The title is quite a misnomer - though the description of the interview below gives a disclaimer that this is a wide-ranging discussion - which was great. Just really not much focus on pensions.

I have been following the "pending" pensions crisis now for well over 10 years. It keeps staying on the horizon. The logic stated all along and in this interview is sound as to why there will be a pension crisis. However after seeing "policy" responses to new crises over the past few years, and especially this year - my take on this is now changing more to this will not happen. Meaning - pensions will not be "allowed" to blow up. If central banks can create SPVs to buy high yield bonds, flood liquidity and do almost anything else (as they constantly remind us they can) - once this pension problem really gets centre stage (as will insurance companies face the music some time in the future, for example) - money and solutions will be created to "solve" the issue and kick everything on further down. 100 year special bond any one to "fund" pensions... If anything - politically hard problems will never be solved in a way that causes pain -as we have seen since maybe LTCM days. The Reagans and Volckers do not seem to be around any more, anywhere in the world. It would be more interesting to start to think more of what happens eventually as we keep zombifying everything in sight with bailouts and liquidity infusions, pensions included, in our now (everything-but-in-name) MMT era.

Can Real Vision increase the volume of the recording so that if we listen at outdoor? If recording volume is high, end users can always reduce volume but it the recording volume is low, even we max out our phone, it will still not be laud enough for outdoor. Just for your feedback. Thanks.

Excellent interview

Mike, join the caravan out of California! I left several years ago. Lots of room and good quality of life here in Wyoming.

Great interview, thanks guys!

Mike Green the Mickey Mantle of Real Vision Host/Guests

This interview alone is worth the sub price! More mike green plz.

Good interview, even the many deviations from topic were good. Insights into passive investing forces and bond jump to default risk particularly good.

Fantastic interview!

Can we get the transcript, please?

Pensions where also senior in Greece. They got a haircut after a long struggle.

Great interview Mike and Raoul! Yep. Really insightful thinking. I appreciate the ending comments too - that to me is a concern. Where can people go - it is a bit disturbing to see the same behaviour in the US, UK, here in Australia - not sure about the EU. Better off in Sweden?

Who gave this a thumbs down? SHOW YOURSELVES

So much wisdom in Mike. Many good quotes. Always enlightening. Thank you.

A fascinating interview; this is the type of material that makes Real Vision unique. On the discussion about Long-Vol strategies (~26:00) not been large enough to replace bonds in portfolios (around minute 26:00): Can Mike comment on using Gold as a Long-Vol Asset in portfolios and/or as a replacement for bonds (i.e. using Gold instead of long bonds to construct an "efficient frontier"), especially given that low bond yields have significantly reduced Gold's cost-of-carry? Thanks !!

People are buying RV's not because of "live for the moment" sentiment. They are buying RV's so they can drop the keys in the mailbox and still have a dry place to live and the luxury of pooping at will. The moral hazard and lack of accountability of 2008 made it perfectly fine to simply walk away. If you loose your job and have a 500K mortgage and a 200K 401K why would you sell your 401k to pay the debt on the house and then loose the house anyway because of the FED and their stupid pet tricks? In my hippie days when the heat was on your tail, it was called splitting for the coast in a van. Just drop off the key Lee and get yourself free. The advantage of an RV is you have no address. It's also the disadvantage.

Looking skinny Mike. Good job!

Raoul, I don't think any of my aerospace engineering professors - who were outstanding teachers, were making millions. Nor would I call them rockstars. When you talk about education you are thinking purely in terms of your educational background. The degrees that give you the technology you are using need labs and teams of students in those labs experimenting for the educational experience. That is not something you can do totally online. The wind tunnels I used were the size of a large house and while some of that training can be simulated now on the computer you still have to touch the physical world when you are engineering physical things.

RE: movie theaters, Macy’s, etc closing... *many* states have relied on suburban sprawl for years, new malls and new strip malls, because of the *construction jobs*. The construction jobs pay far better than the resulting minimum-wage retail. Key for Tax base. You see this clearly in certain states’ opportunity zone incentives, it’s only there to encourage construction. It’s this dynamic that Amazon upsets in a huge way.... No need for the density of malls and strip malls —> reduced construction jobs... state budget woes.

Mike: I think I didn't quite understand how it is passive fixed income will start to take alpha away from active. They still have that index-construction problem (buying more as prices rise), correct? Thanks for your help!

I'm glad Mike and Raoul wandered off, as it were, into education. That was a very substantive segment, if you ask me.

Love Mike!

Mike Green is the GOAT. As a fellow California resident I could not agree more with your comments on the current political climate. One party rule has created this nightmare. As a financial advisor for 35 years in California, I have seen and continue to see literally dozens of clients leave in the last few years. Phoenix, Scottsdale, Reno, Austin, Sun Valley etc. All to get away from the high cost of living, confiscatory tax policy and political extremism. Current ballot proposals that create more division between the haves and the have nots, higher taxes and more costly regulations with no end in sight. Its all about control. Those with assets and the ability to leave are voting with their feet. What a shame

The comparison between MIT & Evergreen State FTW.

Fantastic - loved the tangent into societal concerns, what the future of work/employment could look like, technology, and education, etc...

To mikes point about what do you do to replace the jobs that are structurally gone, I don’t think there’s anything you can do at this point. You could possibly give low skill employees a grant to retrain themselves but retrain themselves in what? Business and healthcare would be the next step up from low skilled work but how many accountants do you really need ? How many doctors and nurses can you actually employ? Or maybe they transition over into tech but then you drastically drive down the wages of tech workers and you’re left with a similar problem of jobs paying far too little to be survivable without multiple roommates and other subsidies. I think we’re increasingly heading towards a society where a ubi is a requirement because there are no more low skill jobs to employ people at. And AI will canabalize the Rest in the next 20-30 years.

A fantastic discussion to take in and reflect on. What I appreciate most about these types of interviews are the off-ramp conversations that get at the root of some of the trends that then find their way into markets, policies, etc. First impression thought is how rapidly change is occurring in so many aspects of everyday life that the models, decision makers, etc. have yet to really understand. While this lag creates opportunity, it also accelerates risk tremendously as Mike has so eloquently pointed out. Another thought...how much of this changing experience in the West and the assumptions that then fall out of this can or should be applied to other jurisdictions? In particular, I wonder about...India. Massive amount of the globe's youth there. Huge need for improved infrastructure. Lack of standards (e.g. worker safety) / access to certain types of technology that does mean perhaps a future driven by labour productivity (i.e. throw bodies at the work) in the shorter-to-mid term vs. technological productivity as they have yet to get up the curve to the same degree that the West has? Makes me wonder about the shift of opportunity towards this area and others like it over time away from an older, less resilient West. Seems like these types of areas have much more to gain and in America/Europe, we have so much more to lose.

Not the losing trades makes a trader humble....all you have to do is listen to Mike Green....;)

Mike Green....if I only could be half as smart....thanks for the wonderful conversation guys!

If there is this massive distortion in valuations due to passive flows, this would mean that there will be incredible opportunities for private equity to delist the undervalued (non-cool sectors) companies that would just be big cash cows

Great stuff! I really enjoy when Mike goes off on a tangent - this is where you get the most value! If anyone is interested in learning more about some of the books in Mike's recommended list check out this post on the Exchange - https://exchange.realvision.com/post/goodreads-on-rv-session-2---mike-green-5f7779ed48d3405e96732528.

Brilliant. Mike Green's conversations are second to none. Thankyou.

I would guess that the Indian and Chinese (baby boomers, born 50 yrs later) will buy the stocks that the US Baby boomers sell?

Always a pleasure listening to you talk.

Does anyone have a source for the data on passive vs active by demographics?

Listening to Mike's thinking is worth a subscription in itself. Don't want to give any ideas, but Mike Green-tier of RV would be an absolute must-have

He's just an incredible mind. To the old question of who you would choose to have a dinner party with, I'm probably choosing Mike Green lol.

Amazing and a lot to take in! Had to listen again and write down a summary to catch the points well.

That was a heavy interview...thanks!

He’s the best. The absolute best. Thank you both!

Related to minute 40 something when he refers to the carpe diem effect of pandemics. One can observe the elderly smoking. I do remember the day the pandemic started to extend in Europe I saw a 80 year old grandma open a cigarette box and smoke it-like saying I do not care now that covid is here. It is an image that might be out of imagination but I can clearly frame in the background of the pandemic. This is a real observation to see if the covid is gone. When the elderly stop smoking again. Some smoke always but when you do not see so many smoking lets. Your perceptions will tell. This is what I am looking at to knowing the covid risks is gone.

Great interview. Great interviewee and interviewor. Thank you both. As a side note, Raoul can you one day extend on the idea of the bitcoin „ETC“ products (and gold ones maybe too). I refer to the video on the crypto channel explaining the first European crypto „ETC“ (the one in Deutsche Börse). Respectively, what is your opinion on gaining exposure to bitcoin through that venue. Many thanks.

Great discussion. Always a good day to hear a conversation with Mr. Green and Mr. Pal. When everything hits the fan will gold and Bitcoin be safe havens? Will cash and land be safe havens? As the economies of the world sort it out you will need cash to make it through. Looks like everyone will continue to lower FX value of currency to compete - Lagarde today. Bitcoin and gold may go down in the interim and hopefully recover. Plan now so you do not have to sell at the wrong time. DLS