Comments
Transcript
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MSHas anyone written anything in book or paper form on optionality outside of investments, like talking about optionality of lettuce on salad but on wider topics. FYI I have read Chris Cole but looking for something more
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BODiego mentioned several times that the premium he is paying for his long-dated options is around 1%, and later he mentioned he likes to work with SPY for example. Currently, 3-month SPY PUT options (at the money strike) are 5.5% of underlying, and 12-month at the money option premium is 10% ($33/$333 Strike). Can you please clarify if Diego is buying deep out of the money options, or if I have somehow misunderstood something? I bought some at the money SPY puts in January 2020, and made a lot on them, but at that time 3-month puts were still 2.6% of underlying, and VIX was only 12 back then. Today you would have to go to a 160 strike price to get to the 1% premium range. By the way, I absolutely loved his video, and make a point of watching any videos with Diego, fantastic. Mike also did a great job of moderating. Bistrin, Canada
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CRAwesome awesome interview! Learning from the very best. As a retail trader with limited capital, I'm looking to this interview for the learning and practicing options with sim accounts for when I do have that larger capital base to play long options. Or is there something I'm missing where one can create a portfolio of long options and like in his example long gold with a small account? I guess my question is how can I learn to trade and build my portfolio in depth this way with a small account as a retail trader? It feels like most of the online information on options trading lean selling options (iron condors, credit spreads?) and "options income trading". Though I have no personal experience, I've built some bias against after reading/listening all of the ways one can blow up with selling options from Taleb's books or RVTV.
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SBThank you Jason & Diego for one of the absolutely best and most informative videos i have ever seen! Much appreciated and i very much like how RV and you makes room for advanced topics and not only whether to buy or sell stonks. Some of the arguments made may on face value seem rather implausible. Such as the market saying that there is "no way that this and this happens at the same time" but i think it is important to note a stark feature in the world of derivatives. Derivatives are not the underlying. They are a contract between two parties, usually one of which is a market maker. The market maker operates in a BS-world, and the speculator probably operate under a MC world view. Because they differ in views on how to approach optionality and path-dependency they manage their exposure and risks in different ways. As mentioned in several other RV videos (and RVDV) there is no balance between supply and demand in the options market as there is in most other markets. Demand for options is not necessarily matched by supply but through creation of a contract between a market maker (dealer) and a buyer. When you buy a stock, someone is selling you that stock and taking the other side of the trade, but in the case of an option, the market maker is not necessarily betting against you. He might share your beliefs about the underlying asset, but he is playing a different game. He is, under his BS-beliefs, trying to sell you an option priced at an IV that is high enough that he will be able to cope with the delta hedging until it expires. You are not playing the same game, which means that "inefficiencies" can, and do, arise in the options markets. He might not even have a view on the directionality or probability of certain outcomes, just on the volatility of the asset.. (One of the many reasons derivatives are just way more interesting than spot markets, in my very biased opinion)
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rcThis is the best video so far for me in RV. It went from macro view to strategy to actual mechanics of portfolio construction, and finally the section on options was mind altering for me. Having sold puts and calls, I have personally gone through several of my positions blow up (of course hubris was the root cause). This was a masterclass. Salute Diego and Jason!
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sgThere is so much in this interview. Ive never really thought about "their take" before so very helpful...(maybe it was the soccer analogies that helped) ty
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FRProper Diego Proper!
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GDdid he just say the price of weed is going to go up???
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APLove both of hem. Always amazing interviews with tons to learn every time.
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AHThank you both very informative discussion
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PGExcellent - always appreciate Diego Parilla's approach to explaining his framework and views. Jason Buck also adds plenty of value, great interviewer!
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CMFantastico! I must begin Diego’s book soon!
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GSOne word - phenomenal...
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MROne of the best interviews on RV, kudos to both Diego & Jason.
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spjeezus. enough with the sports analogies. I prefer straight talk. to understand it on a technical level.
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JKJason and Diego, thank you for highly informative, easily approachable, discussion about volatility. One quick question - Diego mentioned Monte Carlo analysis. In a non-ergodic world, how should allocators use MC analysis?
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CDAs engineer in applied maths and derivs trader, I loved the way Diego covered in laymen terms probabilistic concepts and related them to markets. A lot of substance in this live video, brilliant duo. I'd be interested to hear Diego's take on the 'Softbank/Robinhood strategy' of going long OTM calls on FAANGS. It is crazy and not sophisticated. But then doesn't it match Diego's framework for a good scorer? In a flat forward and zero vol world, OTM short calls exhibit massive leverage. Start with a small allocation, and it can grow exponentially month on month. I actually did this last year after the Sep repocalypse because of the ensuing Fed liquidity injections, it worked marvellously well. The only issue was: if you had reinvest everything on each roll you're guaranteed to have the strategy going to zero at some point (Feb 2020). So, one had to set some profits aside, say 150% of premium invested each month. Doesn't work in the current environment. A math point for the curious: the magic of (risk neutral) Monte Carlo and Option Hedging yielding the same price lies in the Feynman-Kac formula.
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mwProbably the best live one yet!
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DAI was getting a bit disillusioned with Real Vision (too many guests telling the markets what to do; too may macro debates that seem to go round in circles). This was fantastic. A really persuasive and clear headed overview of portfolio construction and risk. Thank you.
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PTfunny everyone thinks that people will actually have enough income to pay for all this inflation
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DSIt was generally accepted long ago in a market far away that stock splits do not change the value of a stock – NPV will be the same. Now, with so many investors using options this may have changed. Apple may have made a smart move by splitting it stock as the price of an option contract is much less. If you are a small investor you really cannot afford to buy a call option on Amazon with a stock price of $3000. I do not know if the price of an option contract benefits the value of a stock. It might be an interesting analysis. Are there fractional option contracts? That would be another way to skin the cat. DLS
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DSThank you! With each one of Mr. Parrilla’s presentation I understand and follow his solid advice better. Well explained in metaphors to bring it home. Mr. Buck did at great job on the interview. He added essential ideas and explanations without disrupting the flow of ideas. Looking forward to seeing both on RVTV soon. DLS
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JHVery instructive and great stuff from Diego, as usual. Only constructive criticism is that the concepts could have been communicated more succinctly. But always learn from him. A lot of merit to his simplified examples of options trades. Thank you both & RV!
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JSSaludos Diego! Muy buena entrevista. Great interview! Splendid.
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IWAbsolutely *fantastic* with two of my favorites. I really like how Diego's contrarian and anti-bubble bets interleave with Jason's focus on path dependency and ensemble approaches.
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FLhy Diego, simple question: in Igneo portfolio do you just do the capital preservation, or do you also do the loading up at the bottom of the "event"...?
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RYSuperb ...
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SCGREAT Masterclass! I think the analogies if you know football is really helpful and give life to the conversation. I am typing so many notes. For young investors like me, it really is like sitting next to the guy at the desk. Thank you Realvision & co.