Rip Van Winkle: Liquidity Edition – Live with Michael Howell

Published on
June 8th, 2020
Duration
61 minutes

The Bullwhip Effect – Live with Lakshman Achuthan


Rip Van Winkle: Liquidity Edition – Live with Michael Howell

Live ·
Featuring Michael Howell

Published on: June 8th, 2020 • Duration: 61 minutes

Let us imagine for a moment that you had fallen asleep before COVID-19 made its debut three months ago and woke up today. Would you be able to tell by observing the equity market that unemployment was at Great Depression levels? Or that oil had gone negative just a few weeks ago? What if I was to tell you, that in the space of 12 weeks, trillions had been injected into the system in order to backstop a full blow meltdown? Would you believe me? Probably not -- and rightfully so. Everything looks normal on the surface. This is the power of liquidity, and it is this phenomenon that we will be exploring in this week’s Real Vision Live. Mike Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, will be joining us to explain the liquidity event of February and March, its impact on markets, the global economy, and how this seemingly magical feat has redefined the classic market cycles we have all grown accustomed to. Find Michael's charts here: https://rvtv.io/2DAQdOk

Comments

Transcript

  • GB
    Gold B.
    29 July 2020 @ 06:51
    Amazing, came back out of habit and transcript is there !
    • DC
      Dave C.
      28 August 2020 @ 02:01
      Akin to extracting blood from a stone
  • MR
    Milton R. | Founder
    14 July 2020 @ 15:38
    Apologies from me for how long this dragged on. The transcript is now on.
    • AI
      Andras I.
      14 July 2020 @ 22:36
      Thank you!
  • WW
    Woody W.
    13 July 2020 @ 05:12
    Where is the Transcripts? ??? Please upload the transcripts. I am begging you Realvision
  • GB
    Gold B.
    3 July 2020 @ 09:45
    And still nothing, this was one of the most constructive presentations and still no transcript ?
  • GB
    Gold B.
    28 June 2020 @ 16:29
    Yes, don't give up, we come back at least once a week to check
  • AI
    Andras I.
    23 June 2020 @ 01:40
    Whoever is doing the transcript: don't give up, it's a good fight you need to win! :)
  • PM
    Patrick M.
    18 June 2020 @ 06:45
    Great video. When will the transcript come?
    • GB
      Gold B.
      19 June 2020 @ 11:57
      And his presentation please ?
  • AP
    Adam P.
    16 June 2020 @ 12:51
    Still no transcript.
  • CD
    C D.
    16 June 2020 @ 07:11
    That was mint!
  • CD
    Colin D.
    10 June 2020 @ 07:08
    Mike Howell always speaks so well - his thoughts and opinions are great to listen to. It would be good if RV could create a pdf to download with the charts from his presentation, as some were blurred and/or partially obscured during the live broadcast.
    • SS
      Stephen S.
      14 June 2020 @ 17:43
      Great suggestion on the pdf.
  • ea
    edwin a.
    12 June 2020 @ 01:29
    As usual, a wonderful guest. Really looking forward to a repeat visit to finish the presentation. One question this leaves me with: how does Howell's view of liquidity relate to others' views of possible scarcity of dollars in the near term (Pal, Johnson)? Specifically: if the US government is treating availability of dollars as an urgent and serious national security risk, and this is increasingly bi-partisan, then it seems risky to dismiss the importance and efficacy of the swap lines.
    • JK
      Jake K.
      14 June 2020 @ 00:07
      Definitely interested in this dichotomy
  • AP
    Adam P.
    13 June 2020 @ 16:12
    Transcript?
  • AP
    Adam P.
    11 June 2020 @ 18:12
    Phenomenal interview... particularly the first half. Thank you, Michael!
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    11 June 2020 @ 16:29
    The audio levels seemed much lower compared to the usual videos. Just a heads up. As for China "internationalizing" the Yuan, that's a laugh, they have a closed capital account. Also demand in general will be depressed across the globe, dampening their export ambitions.
  • tc
    thomas c.
    11 June 2020 @ 16:23
    I've been listening to and reading his work for yrs on RV. Either he keeps getting better or I'm getting deeper insight into it. Probably both. One of the most valuable people I hear on RV
  • PB
    Paolo B.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:55
    Incredible interviews. So well explained and articulated. Looking forward to a second interview please!
  • KS
    KEVIN S.
    10 June 2020 @ 12:52
    Will a transcript of this interview be available (including charts)?
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      10 June 2020 @ 13:18
      Yes. Live interview transcripts are usually available within 48 hours of air date.
    • SH
      Sam H.
      10 June 2020 @ 23:38
      Agree, not sure about others but some of the chart detail was not readible unfortuately on the screen
  • VS
    Valtteri S.
    10 June 2020 @ 20:58
    Real nice interview. The question of yield curve steepening the bull way not being asked will haunt me.
  • TS
    Theodoros S.
    10 June 2020 @ 20:13
    So according to Michael Howell, the next 6 months the 10 year treasury yield may go around 1 - 1.25%. And USA-European equities keep rising?
  • CD
    Cheryl D.
    10 June 2020 @ 18:44
    great interview!! very insightful!!!
  • OT
    Omar T.
    9 June 2020 @ 23:48
    Can you provide charts for download.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      10 June 2020 @ 13:26
      Charts will be included in the transcript which is usually available within 48 hours of air.
  • AF
    Andre F.
    9 June 2020 @ 23:35
    Why is the interview not indexed into segments?
    • PS
      Paul S.
      10 June 2020 @ 12:57
      Yes we need segments please
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      10 June 2020 @ 13:24
      In order to get the replay up as quickly as possible live interviews do not go through the same post-production process as prerecorded interviews that allows us to chapterize them.
  • JE
    J E.
    10 June 2020 @ 11:58
    The Fed is a destructive force against capitalism and is pushing even further down the rabbit hole. Protesters should add the Eccles building to their ‘DC buildings to burn down’ list.
    • JE
      J E.
      10 June 2020 @ 12:54
      Btw, loved the interview. I like the positive China story, and especially with Russel Clark’s interview and further reading on the belt and road. Seems that the writing is on the wall...
  • JB
    Jamie B.
    10 June 2020 @ 07:13
    The lines are most definitely being drawn in the sand between the West and China. It was announced this week in Australia that the treasurers of the US, Australia, New Zealand, UK & Canada have been discussing this very issue. As a result, Australia has announced that every single foreign investment into Australia is going to be scrutinized and assessed. The reasoning they gave: "National Security". Although they never mentioned China, the announcement is only pointed in one direction. It's an issue the Aussie population has had for years now regarding China buying large tracts of agricultural land plus many other strategic investments. This is especially pertinent in Australia as we have relied so heavily on China as a trading partner in the past. It's one of the reasons we got through the GFC relatively ok (not to simplify things too much). This is a huge issue and we in Australia have picked our side (wherever that leads us?) Great conversation Ed (always love your interviews) and appreciate Michael's different take on it, most insightful.
  • JW
    Jason W.
    10 June 2020 @ 06:10
    Just to know half of what Mr Howell has in his mind would be staggering. Unbelievable guest. Excellent RV 👍🏻.
  • AW
    Angela W.
    10 June 2020 @ 05:43
    Thank you for a fantastic interview Ed. Would definitely love to see the other half of Michael’s charts sometime. Seems the steepening of the bond curve, and Yield Curve Control is the one to watch. If Hedge Funds have to change from bonds as the hedge to equities seems like gold is the logical option. Glad to know Michael is still bullish gold, as he was the last time he appeared on RV.
  • BR
    Benjamin R.
    10 June 2020 @ 04:01
    Fascinating. Very valuable!
  • BA
    Bruce A.
    10 June 2020 @ 00:00
    Amazing. Amazing. Amazingly Good.
  • gc
    guillaume c.
    9 June 2020 @ 23:25
    He broke a big part of my framework. Would a stock bear market fit in so much liquidity injection in the near term? I'll have to think again...
  • JA
    Jonathan A.
    9 June 2020 @ 23:02
    Extremely powerful analysis by Michael Howell. RV needs to get him on again!
  • RH
    Rob H.
    9 June 2020 @ 22:08
    To think I almost passed on this show. Why didn't RV get this guy on after the Fed move? We could have had a Liquidity watch week instead of Recission watch. I know, Hindsight bias. Yet, I see according to his charts all this money will keep on flowing into the world equity market, the least macro market of them all and if the risk is on the bond market then money flowing out of that market will go towards risk assets. A double whammy...
  • MS
    Mike S.
    9 June 2020 @ 21:15
    More! Do it again SVP!
  • je
    james e.
    9 June 2020 @ 20:52
    Terrific. Would be great to have Michael back periodically to update on USD and rates. He sure understands his topic. And, he reads some really big books.
  • TE
    Tito E.
    9 June 2020 @ 20:02
    Wow i learned alot about liquidity from this. Fantastic.

Mark Yusko

Morgan Creek Capital Management, Co- Founder, CEO, & CIO

Mark Yuskois the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. He is also the Managing Partner of Morgan Creek Digital Assets. Morgan Creek Capital Management was founded in 2004 and currently manages close to $2 billion in discretionary and non-discretionary assets. Prior to founding Morgan Creek, Mr. Yusko was CIO and Founder of UNC Management Company (UNCMC), the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Before that, he was Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office.Mr. Yusko has been at the forefront of institutional investing throughout his career. An early investor in alternative asset classes at Notre Dame, he brought the Endowment Model of investing to UNC, which contributed to significant performance gains for the Endowment. The Endowment Model is the cornerstone philosophy of Morgan Creek, as is the mandate to Invest in Innovation. Mr. Yusko is again at the forefront of investing through Morgan Creek Digital Assets, which was formed in 2018. Morgan Creek Digital is an early stage investor in blockchain technology, digital currency and digital assets through the firm’s Venture Capital and Digital Asset Index Fund.Mr. Yusko received a BA with Honors from the University of Notre Dame and an MBA in Accounting and Finance from the University of Chicago.

Anthony Scaramucci

SkyBridge Capital, Founder & Co-Managing Partner

Prior to founding SkyBridge in 2005, Scaramucci co-founded investment partnership Oscar Capital Management, which was sold to Neuberger Berman, LLC in 2001. Earlier, he was a vice president in Private Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs & Co. In 2016, Scaramucci was ranked #85 in Worth Magazine’sPower 100: The 100 Most Powerful People in Global Finance. In 2011, he received Ernst & Young’s “Entrepreneur of the Year –New York” Award in the Financial Services category. Anthony is amember of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), vice chair of the Kennedy Center Corporate Fund Board, a board member of both The Brain Tumor Foundation and Business Executives for National Security (BENS), and a Trustee of the United States Olympic & Paralympic Foundation. He was a member of the New York City Financial Services Advisory Committee from 2007 to 2012. In November 2016, he was named to President-Elect Trump’s 16-person Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee. In June 2017, he wasnamed the Chief Strategy Officer of the EXIM Bank. He served as the White House Communications Director for a period in July 2017. Scaramucci, a native of Long Island, New York, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics from Tufts University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School.

Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy, Co-Founder

Mr. Saylor is a technologist, entrepreneur, business executive, philanthropist, and best-selling author. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Office of MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR). Since co-founding the company at the age of 24, Mr. Saylor has built MicroStrategy into a global leader in business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. In 2012, he authoredThe Mobile Wave: How Mobile Intelligence Will Change Everything, which earned a spot onThe NewYork TimesBest Sellers list. Mr. Saylor attended the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, receiving an S.B. in Aeronautics and Astronautics and an S.B. in Science, Technology, and Society.

Alex Saunders

Nugget's News, Founder & CEO

Alex Saunders is the founder and CEO of Nugget’s News, a digital media company focused on all things crypto. Alex has been captivated by cryptocurrency since 2012 and in 2017 he began educating globally on the benefits of cryptocurrency and how to safely acquireit. Nugget’s News has been listed as a top-20 podcast by Business Insider, ShapeShift and Lifehacker and has over 120k YouTube subscribers with 9 million total views.Alex is also heavily focused on his cryptocurrency education platform Collective Shift which currently serves over 4,500 members. provides his unique perspectives by utilising his expertise in fundamental analysis, technical analysis and market sentiment. He is working towards his mission of making it easier for everyone to understand the financial world.

James Putra

TradeStation Crypto, Inc., Sr. Director of Product Strategy

James helped launch TradeStation Crypto’s offeringwhichutilizesa true online brokerage model that self-directed investors and traders have come to expect for equities, futures,and foreign currency markets. He is a reputed crypto asset specialist and blockchain thought leader focused on helping people find innovativeways to participate in this space. He is active in the blockchain community with speaking engagements, TV appearances and mentoring.James has over 15 years of experience in the Fintech industry.

Raoul Pal

Real Vision, Co-Founder & CEO

Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, the world’s pre-eminent financial media platform, which helps members understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy. Real Vision members also have access to Real Vision Crypto, a cryptocurrency and digital assets video channelwatched by over 80,000 people.In addition, Raoul has been publishing Global Macro Investor since January 2005 to provide original, high quality, quantifiable and easily readable research for the global macro investment community hedge funds, family offices, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It draws on his considerable 31 years of experience in advising hedge funds and managing a global macro hedge fund. Global Macro Investor has one of the very best, proven track records of any newsletter in the industry, producing extremely positive returns in eight out of the last twelve years. He retired from managing client money at the age of 36 in 2004 and now lives in the tiny Caribbean island of Little Cayman in the Cayman Islands. Previously he co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul moved to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe. In this role, Raoul established strong relationships with many of the world’s pre-eminent hedge funds, learning from their styles and experiences. Other stop-off points on the way were NatWest Markets and HSBC, although hebegan his career by training traders in technical analysis.

Peter McCormack

What Bitcoin Did, Journalist

Peter McCormack is a full timejournalist/podcaster covering topics such as Freedom, Human Rights, Censorship and Bitcoin. Peter created and hosts the What Bitcoin Did Podcast, a twice-weekly Bitcoin podcast where he interviews experts in the world of Bitcoin development, privacy, investment and adoption. Launched in November of 2017, the podcast has grown to over 100 episodes with a guest list that is a testament to the diversity of knowledge and opinions that represent the broader Bitcoin community. Expanding his growing list of humaninterest recordings, documentaries and films Peter has recently launched theDefiancepodcast andDefianceTV.

Caitlin Long

Avanti Financial Group, Founder & CEO

22-year Wall Street veteran who has been active in bitcoin and blockchain since 2012. In 2018-20 she led the charge to make her native state of Wyoming an oasis for blockchain companies in the US, where she helped Wyoming enact 20 blockchain-enabling laws. From 2016-18 she jointly spearheaded a blockchain project for delivering market index data to Vanguard as chairman and president of Symbiont, an enterprise blockchain start-up. Caitlin ran Morgan Stanley’s pension solutions business (2007-2016), heldsenior roles at Credit Suisse (1997-2007) and began her career at Salomon Brothers (1994-1997). She is a graduate of Harvard Law School (JD, 1994), the Kennedy School of Government (MPP, 1994) and the University of Wyoming (BA, 1990).

Hunter Horsley

Bitwise Asset Management, CEO

Hunter Horsley is Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. Prior to Bitwise, he was a product manager at Facebook, working on advertiser products including the multibillion-dollar sponsored content ecosystem and ad breaks in videos. Before Facebook, Horlsey was a product manager at Instagram, responsible for multiple advertising products generating several hundred million dollars of revenue. He is a graduate of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, with a B.S. in economics. Recently, Horsley was named a member of Forbes’ 2019 “30 Under 30” list.

Luke Gromen

Forest For The Trees, Founder & President

Luke Gromen has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst.He is the founder and president of macro/thematic research firm FFTT, LLC, which he founded in early 2014 to address and leverage the opportunity he saw created by applying what clientsand former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America.FFTT caters to institutions and sophisticated individuals by aggregating a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for his clients.Prior to founding FFTT, Luke was a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company, where he worked from 2006-14.At CRC, Luke worked in sales and edited CRC’s flagship weekly thematic research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”)for the firm’s clients.Prior to that,Luke was a partner at Midwest Research, where he worked in equity research and sales from 1996-2006.While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly thematic summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients, in whichhe aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.Luke Gromen holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University.He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Meltem Demirors

CoinShares, Chief Strategy Officer

Meltem Demirors is Chief Strategy Officer of CoinShares, an investment firm that manages billions in assets on behalf of a global investor base, and is a trusted partner to investors and entrepreneurs navigating the digital asset ecosystem. Meltemoversees the firm’s managed strategies group and its New York office and leads corporate development. Previously, she was part of the founding team of Digital Currency Group. As a veteran investor in the digital currency space, she has invested in over 250 companies in the ecosystem. Meltem is passionate about education and advocacy, and teaches the Oxford Blockchain Strategy Programme and co-chairs the WEF Cryptocurrency Council.