Rip Van Winkle: Liquidity Edition – Live with Michael Howell

Published on
June 8th, 2020
Duration
61 minutes

The Bullwhip Effect – Live with Lakshman Achuthan


Rip Van Winkle: Liquidity Edition – Live with Michael Howell

Live ·
Featuring Michael Howell

Published on: June 8th, 2020 • Duration: 61 minutes

Let us imagine for a moment that you had fallen asleep before COVID-19 made its debut three months ago and woke up today. Would you be able to tell by observing the equity market that unemployment was at Great Depression levels? Or that oil had gone negative just a few weeks ago? What if I was to tell you, that in the space of 12 weeks, trillions had been injected into the system in order to backstop a full blow meltdown? Would you believe me? Probably not -- and rightfully so. Everything looks normal on the surface. This is the power of liquidity, and it is this phenomenon that we will be exploring in this week’s Real Vision Live. Mike Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, will be joining us to explain the liquidity event of February and March, its impact on markets, the global economy, and how this seemingly magical feat has redefined the classic market cycles we have all grown accustomed to.

Comments

  • DC
    Dave C.
    22 June 2020 @ 00:56
    I queried the lack of transcript with the help desk and received the following "Sorry Dave due to the sheer volume of videos, we have encountered some delays in getting all transcripts processed so we had to prioritize the most important one :( " This gives a clear impression that a transcript will eventially be provided. We await with diminishing patience An observation, for the so called Real Vision Plus service, this is less than impressive.
    • GB
      Gold B.
      8 July 2020 @ 08:35
      Which Help Desk did you query, I also sent along something and no reply. If you give me the contact you used maybe I can push this along as well.
  • GB
    Gold B.
    3 July 2020 @ 09:45
    And still nothing, this was one of the most constructive presentations and still no transcript ?
    • DC
      Dave C.
      3 July 2020 @ 19:51
      Query left on the question line service that the team takes "a few minutes to respond to". 5 days later and no response. Premium plus service - pathetic!
  • GB
    Gold B.
    28 June 2020 @ 16:29
    Yes, don't give up, we come back at least once a week to check
  • AI
    Andras I.
    23 June 2020 @ 01:40
    Whoever is doing the transcript: don't give up, it's a good fight you need to win! :)
  • PM
    Patrick M.
    18 June 2020 @ 06:45
    Great video. When will the transcript come?
    • GB
      Gold B.
      19 June 2020 @ 11:57
      And his presentation please ?
  • AP
    Adam P.
    16 June 2020 @ 12:51
    Still no transcript.
  • RJ
    R J.
    16 June 2020 @ 07:11
    That was mint!
  • CD
    Colin D.
    10 June 2020 @ 07:08
    Mike Howell always speaks so well - his thoughts and opinions are great to listen to. It would be good if RV could create a pdf to download with the charts from his presentation, as some were blurred and/or partially obscured during the live broadcast.
    • SS
      Stephen S.
      14 June 2020 @ 17:43
      Great suggestion on the pdf.
  • ea
    edwin a.
    12 June 2020 @ 01:29
    As usual, a wonderful guest. Really looking forward to a repeat visit to finish the presentation. One question this leaves me with: how does Howell's view of liquidity relate to others' views of possible scarcity of dollars in the near term (Pal, Johnson)? Specifically: if the US government is treating availability of dollars as an urgent and serious national security risk, and this is increasingly bi-partisan, then it seems risky to dismiss the importance and efficacy of the swap lines.
    • JK
      James K.
      14 June 2020 @ 00:07
      Definitely interested in this dichotomy
  • AP
    Adam P.
    13 June 2020 @ 16:12
    Transcript?
  • AP
    Adam P.
    11 June 2020 @ 18:12
    Phenomenal interview... particularly the first half. Thank you, Michael!
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    11 June 2020 @ 16:29
    The audio levels seemed much lower compared to the usual videos. Just a heads up. As for China "internationalizing" the Yuan, that's a laugh, they have a closed capital account. Also demand in general will be depressed across the globe, dampening their export ambitions.
  • tc
    thomas c.
    11 June 2020 @ 16:23
    I've been listening to and reading his work for yrs on RV. Either he keeps getting better or I'm getting deeper insight into it. Probably both. One of the most valuable people I hear on RV
  • PB
    Paolo B.
    10 June 2020 @ 23:55
    Incredible interviews. So well explained and articulated. Looking forward to a second interview please!
  • KS
    KEVIN S.
    10 June 2020 @ 12:52
    Will a transcript of this interview be available (including charts)?
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      10 June 2020 @ 13:18
      Yes. Live interview transcripts are usually available within 48 hours of air date.
    • SH
      Sam H.
      10 June 2020 @ 23:38
      Agree, not sure about others but some of the chart detail was not readible unfortuately on the screen
  • VS
    Valtteri S.
    10 June 2020 @ 20:58
    Real nice interview. The question of yield curve steepening the bull way not being asked will haunt me.
  • TS
    Theodoros S.
    10 June 2020 @ 20:13
    So according to Michael Howell, the next 6 months the 10 year treasury yield may go around 1 - 1.25%. And USA-European equities keep rising?
  • CD
    Cheryl D.
    10 June 2020 @ 18:44
    great interview!! very insightful!!!
  • OT
    Omar T.
    9 June 2020 @ 23:48
    Can you provide charts for download.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      10 June 2020 @ 13:26
      Charts will be included in the transcript which is usually available within 48 hours of air.
  • AF
    Andre F.
    9 June 2020 @ 23:35
    Why is the interview not indexed into segments?
    • PS
      Paul S.
      10 June 2020 @ 12:57
      Yes we need segments please
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      10 June 2020 @ 13:24
      In order to get the replay up as quickly as possible live interviews do not go through the same post-production process as prerecorded interviews that allows us to chapterize them.
  • JE
    Jon E.
    10 June 2020 @ 11:58
    The Fed is a destructive force against capitalism and is pushing even further down the rabbit hole. Protesters should add the Eccles building to their ‘DC buildings to burn down’ list.
    • JE
      Jon E.
      10 June 2020 @ 12:54
      Btw, loved the interview. I like the positive China story, and especially with Russel Clark’s interview and further reading on the belt and road. Seems that the writing is on the wall...
  • JB
    Jamie B.
    10 June 2020 @ 07:13
    The lines are most definitely being drawn in the sand between the West and China. It was announced this week in Australia that the treasurers of the US, Australia, New Zealand, UK & Canada have been discussing this very issue. As a result, Australia has announced that every single foreign investment into Australia is going to be scrutinized and assessed. The reasoning they gave: "National Security". Although they never mentioned China, the announcement is only pointed in one direction. It's an issue the Aussie population has had for years now regarding China buying large tracts of agricultural land plus many other strategic investments. This is especially pertinent in Australia as we have relied so heavily on China as a trading partner in the past. It's one of the reasons we got through the GFC relatively ok (not to simplify things too much). This is a huge issue and we in Australia have picked our side (wherever that leads us?) Great conversation Ed (always love your interviews) and appreciate Michael's different take on it, most insightful.
  • JW
    Jason W.
    10 June 2020 @ 06:10
    Just to know half of what Mr Howell has in his mind would be staggering. Unbelievable guest. Excellent RV 👍🏻.
  • AW
    Angela W.
    10 June 2020 @ 05:43
    Thank you for a fantastic interview Ed. Would definitely love to see the other half of Michael’s charts sometime. Seems the steepening of the bond curve, and Yield Curve Control is the one to watch. If Hedge Funds have to change from bonds as the hedge to equities seems like gold is the logical option. Glad to know Michael is still bullish gold, as he was the last time he appeared on RV.
  • BR
    Benjamin R.
    10 June 2020 @ 04:01
    Fascinating. Very valuable!
  • BA
    Bruce A.
    10 June 2020 @ 00:00
    Amazing. Amazing. Amazingly Good.
  • gc
    guillaume c.
    9 June 2020 @ 23:25
    He broke a big part of my framework. Would a stock bear market fit in so much liquidity injection in the near term? I'll have to think again...
  • JA
    Jonathan A.
    9 June 2020 @ 23:02
    Extremely powerful analysis by Michael Howell. RV needs to get him on again!
  • RH
    Rob H.
    9 June 2020 @ 22:08
    To think I almost passed on this show. Why didn't RV get this guy on after the Fed move? We could have had a Liquidity watch week instead of Recission watch. I know, Hindsight bias. Yet, I see according to his charts all this money will keep on flowing into the world equity market, the least macro market of them all and if the risk is on the bond market then money flowing out of that market will go towards risk assets. A double whammy...
  • MS
    Mike S.
    9 June 2020 @ 21:15
    More! Do it again SVP!
  • je
    james e.
    9 June 2020 @ 20:52
    Terrific. Would be great to have Michael back periodically to update on USD and rates. He sure understands his topic. And, he reads some really big books.
  • TE
    Tito E.
    9 June 2020 @ 20:02
    Wow i learned alot about liquidity from this. Fantastic.