The American Machine: Built to Last? – Live with Daniel Lacalle

Published on
July 9th, 2020
Duration
65 minutes

The Dollar Milkshake: If Not Now, When? – Live with Brent Johnson


The American Machine: Built to Last? – Live with Daniel Lacalle

Live ·
Featuring Daniel Lacalle

Published on: July 9th, 2020 • Duration: 65 minutes

As cities across the U.S. take shelter against the pandemic that has altered life as we know it, markets rally on hope and fall on fear. Volatility has come roaring back and helped risk assets scream ever higher in what appears to be a new gravity defying reality. The question is - can this last? With the re-opening rally fully priced in, market participants the world over are looking to understand what’s next for the US and Europe. To this end, Daniel Lacalle, chief economist at Tressis Gestion sits down with Ed Harrison in this segment of Real Vision Live to break down why he sees the US outperforming over the long term despite recent setbacks on the coronavirus front.

Comments

Transcript

  • VS
    Vafa S.
    16 July 2020 @ 06:23
    Fantastic interview with Daniel and as usual ED performed a great job
  • ar
    andrew r.
    13 July 2020 @ 15:35
    Quality guest, great interview.
  • JG
    Johan G.
    13 July 2020 @ 13:13
    He has some interesting and valid views, but a bit one sided on the USD/Euro. His main point, that the US economy is doing so much better than the Euro zone since the GFC, and this is caused by a superior economic system. This should be moderated by the following: 1. The US had a shale oil/gas boom that basically drove the employment growth since 2008. Take that out and not much is left. Europe stayed a net importer of oil and gas. 2. Demographics means that US GDP should grow close to 1% per annum faster than the Euro zone in order to keep up on a per capita basis. Take out these two and the difference between the Euro zone and the US basically disappears. So to me it seems a weak case for 'systemic superiority'. The comparison is much more complex and nuanced. Lacalle's view seems colored by his location in Spain. It could be used to describe the difference between southern Europe and the US, but is not in my opinion a good description of the difference between Northern Europe and the US. According to IMF the US will experience about twice as big a fall in GDP as Germany this year due to the Covid 19 epidemic. That difference is going to linger into 2021 as well. The US turns out to be ill equipped to deal with the epidemic, and will probably have much more of a restructuring to do over the next few years with its whole services industry in tatters. The Fangs are touted today as the future, but they are vulnerable to taxes, protectionism, and competition law. There will be a big change for these companies going forward, and the multiple expansion that we see today is caused by loose money and euphoric expectations in my opinion.(tulipomania?) Zombie companies seem to be prevalent in both Europe and the US, not much difference, and deficit spending + MMT seems to be spearheaded by the GOP in the US right now(TGA at 1,5 trillion USD will not stay there much longer??) not European governments are not leading even if they will follow. There is no easy way out of this situation for the US or Europe; only difficult choices between various bad outcomes.
  • AT
    Alun T.
    13 July 2020 @ 11:05
    Daniel Lacalle is always such great value. Please, would love to see him back sometime in the near future.
  • JD
    Jesse D.
    13 July 2020 @ 02:48
    Always like his thoughts/analysis. He’s a great communicator
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    10 July 2020 @ 01:23
    Like an auric cleanse after watching the Kelton interview. Thanks guys! Great stuff.
    • JL
      Jack L.
      12 July 2020 @ 00:11
      Had to turn the Kelton interview off after ~15 minutes. Very likely on the wrong side of monetary history.
    • SS
      Shanthi S.
      12 July 2020 @ 09:26
      I try to force my way through every MMT podcast I can find. It's torture, but I'd like to know what they have planned for us. Lucky for you the Kelton interview was shallow and uninformative, so you missed nothing, unless your a masochist.
    • KJ
      Kurt J.
      13 July 2020 @ 01:50
      I would look to Warren Mosler, background is finance as a professional, and not an academic - as Kelton is. Unfortunately, Kelton couldn't help but inject her politics (the interviewer as well), which, whether people agree with or not is beside the point, because we are trying to answer the fundamental question of what is the nature of money , - and for that, MMT describes most accurately what it's nature is.
  • FD
    Frank D.
    12 July 2020 @ 07:07
    The blurry background is not a good choice, would be nice to have full picture instead.
  • GM
    Gary M.
    9 July 2020 @ 20:02
    Absolute crap.
    • MG
      Michael G.
      11 July 2020 @ 16:44
      Hi Gary, any possibility that you can expand on your analyses a little more in depth than just two words?
  • SG
    Sashi G.
    11 July 2020 @ 11:38
    Seems a bit one-sided in his views. More like making up your mind on being positive on US equity and dollar assets and then coming up with logic to justify the ends. One point in support of my opinion is his focus on Euro supply by central banks as negative Euro but not focusing on the record Fed supply of USD which should have similar effects. Most of his argument to me sounds like the US being the "least dirty shirt" argument. May be valid but I think no one can really predict or know how this will all play out as unprecedented actions are taking place globally. And for all we know, more may come. The end game of all this liquidity cannot be known or predicted by anyone because who knows what boundaries of monetary limits will next be crossed (?).
  • SO
    Shaun O.
    11 July 2020 @ 07:29
    Great Insites. One of your best Ed thanks!
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    11 July 2020 @ 03:49
    Interesting discussion. Yes, i can understand how Germany and France need to continue to bail out the club med countries, both to protect their export markets and their banking sector but where is the incentive for other (net contributing) countries like Denmark, Finland, Sweden and The Netherlands to do so? Denmark, in particular, does very little trade with the south plus it has historic strong ties with the UK. If the unthinkable happens, it wont be led by Spain, Italy, Germany or France but something from left field such as a Danexit.
  • DS
    David S.
    10 July 2020 @ 21:26
    Also just watched again....great interview. Love Daniel. Ty Ed! Keep him coming back please.
  • JH
    Jim H.
    10 July 2020 @ 15:43
    I need to listen to this again. Very good interview and lots to digest.
  • ML
    Max L.
    10 July 2020 @ 12:42
    Really a great interviewer.
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    10 July 2020 @ 10:41
    Nice interview as always from Daniel, and as we all now in the long run the population will be better of if capitalism is allowed to work and not suppressed.
  • RJ
    Robert J.
    10 July 2020 @ 05:00
    Ed is a key talent for the RV brand.
  • vk
    vineet k.
    10 July 2020 @ 02:14
    amazing analysis
  • RD
    REMCO D.
    10 July 2020 @ 00:47
    Fantastic. Really enjoy your interviews Ed. Good stuff. 👍🏻
  • Jv
    Juri v.
    9 July 2020 @ 23:00
    superb!!
  • TS
    Thomas S.
    9 July 2020 @ 22:43
    "playing nice", at least as it relates to the USA, is about getting re-elected and kicking the can down the road. Bailed out employees and company execs are possible votes. These vote-getting Politicians will be gone when the rubber hits the road.
  • dw
    douglas w.
    9 July 2020 @ 21:52
    Daniel La Callle is la bomba! Time to get Diego Parilla back to barbell this great interview.
  • DS
    David S.
    9 July 2020 @ 20:45
    Dr. Lacalle always adds a lot of perspective to my understanding of the markets and the world. I believe that GM paid back the government loans with interest. It is always best to have covenants in government loans that encourage early payback. The US does it sometimes. We will see in this present attempt to bail out everyone from COVID-19 how it plays out. We need to develop more resilient governments, businesses and citizens. Part of resiliency comes from normalizing interest rates. This will take a long time, but it should be the goal. A 3% interest rate would have solved a lot of the problems in government and the private sector before the pandemic hit. The market will not like the 3% hurdle rate and the government certainly will not like trying to pay the interest. We have seen the cost of efficiency at any cost. Resiliency at any cost will not work either. Where is the middle ground? The Austrian School interview will hopefully address this issue without too much resiliency. DLS
  • II
    Ian I.
    9 July 2020 @ 19:55
    Fuck me that was good! GET HIM BACK
    • DS
      David S.
      9 July 2020 @ 20:24
      Less is more. DLS
  • GM
    Gary M.
    9 July 2020 @ 20:01
    Fantastic.
  • GM
    Gary M.
    9 July 2020 @ 19:55
    Do you cens5r comments?
  • GM
    Gary M.
    9 July 2020 @ 19:54
    This was the most insightful piece I’ve ever seen on RV1!
  • GM
    Gary M.
    9 July 2020 @ 19:53
    Fantastic interview,Ed. You really rocked.
  • GM
    Gary M.
    9 July 2020 @ 19:49
    Brilliant.
  • DT
    David T.
    9 July 2020 @ 19:24
    Very interesting and refreshing view of the European problems of welfare states.