The Bullwhip Effect – Live with Lakshman Achuthan

Published on
June 2nd, 2020
Duration
66 minutes

Ask Me Anything – With the Real Vision Editorial Team


The Bullwhip Effect – Live with Lakshman Achuthan

Live ·
Featuring Lakshman Achuthan

Published on: June 2nd, 2020 • Duration: 66 minutes

They say that when things get tough, the tough get going. In economics, however, when things get tough, the tough start saving. This is so true, that just between February and March, the savings rate jumped 5%. Even with large swaths of the country reopening, there is serious concern about how consumers will behave moving forward in the absence of a vaccine or treatment along with the prospect of another wave of infections on the horizon. This begs the question, “how could shifts in consumer demand impact inflation and its elusive arrival?” To find clarity, we have invited Lakshman Achuthan, COO and co-founder of ECRI on this week’s Real Vision Live. He will delve into what the indicators are signaling and explore the intricacies of demand shocks on global recessions, inflation vs. deflation, and what he refers to as the bullwhip effect.

Comments

Transcript

  • DJ
    D J.
    26 July 2020 @ 10:17
    The ECRI has now becomed required reading in the CFA, good for him
  • tr
    tom r.
    8 June 2020 @ 23:10
    Seems to me that more and more subscribers are giving these interviews a thumbs down. This is nothing you couldn't listen to free on Bloomberg, FBN etc. Personally, I am less and less enthused about many people who are interviewed. So many of them spend a lot of time just stating the obvious that everyone already knows. This one is like a frat boys club interview.
    • PS
      Paul S.
      10 June 2020 @ 12:53
      The ratings don’t agree
  • BA
    Benjamin A.
    7 June 2020 @ 22:13
    Great interview. Loved his comment that it's possible to be a cyclical bull but a structural bear.
  • tc
    thomas c.
    3 June 2020 @ 01:51
    Very good interview. Lakshman's data is usually right on. He is glued to his process. But I heard the bullwhip effect story last month. He like many other RV conributors, recently Alex Gurevich, Lacy Hunt, M. Werner did the same interview on one of the many free macro podcasts available and all before they appeared on RV. The interviewers are as good or better than RV. These are all very highly sought after people so I don't expect exclusives but what's the added value of RV? Video? HedgeEye TV has great weekly videos and Keith McCullough always has a well pressed clean shirt (just a ha ha ha). With the big price hikes and tiering I'm not finding it in the Plus level. I hope the crew takes this into consideration.
    • AI
      Andras I.
      3 June 2020 @ 06:18
      +1
    • CB
      Charles B.
      3 June 2020 @ 12:35
      I have to agree. With me it is even more difficult because I don't have the time to view all these videos. Since I subscribe to Macro Insiders and follow all their advice I do not see why I have to subscribe to Live to get Macro Insiders, since I like following Macro Insiders on its own.
    • SR
      Steve R.
      6 June 2020 @ 22:42
      I couldn't agree more Charles B. I preferred the original format of one video on a Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. For most of us we have other jobs. I simply don't have upto 5+ hours a week to watch all the content, so now I just have to read the summary in the weekly distillery.
  • JE
    J E.
    3 June 2020 @ 21:18
    To me the comments regarding the poor being the worst hit as always seems so complacent. I get it, but these policies of manufactured inflation are the specific policies of the Fed. Nothing against the conversation or guests here (bc I know you may agree), but I find it particularly grating against the backdrop of the unrest, when we all know this wall st. ‘gotcha’ moment is intentional currency debasement for the benefit of a few. I would prefer real capitalism, where things get cheaper for the poor, and over-leveraged idiots would go bankrupt. IE: DEFLATION. It’s what’s for dinner.
    • CJ
      Charles J.
      4 June 2020 @ 15:19
      I don't know if it is complacent as much as it is a fact.... The largest decrease in inequality in our country was the Great Depression. That was a horrible time for the poor. I agree with everything you said above and think the problem is what's happened the past 30 years, but don't get it twisted, the poor will get hammered by the coming deleveraging. It's somewhat inevitable and pushing it out makes it worse not better, but even though the pain will be spread more consistently, the poor will be crushed just as badly and for perhaps longer than any time since the Great Depression. On the other side, I'd argue there outlook will be better than it's been in 30 years, but it will be painful.
  • GJ
    Gino J.
    4 June 2020 @ 04:29
    Question Was Asked By Ash: Where are we right now? Answer: “You are PROBABLY still in a recession”.....probably?? How many subscribers think we are “probably” in a recession? Other interesting commentaries: “The market is trying to look forward”, and “Recession will probably end this summer”.......that was enough for me to stop the interview. I welcome and encourage different views on this platform, but ladies and gentlemen, let’s be real here. You might as well interview Gary Cohn and make RV a free subscription with these type of interviews. Part of RV’s attraction is exclusivity to content and views you can’t get anywhere else. As much as praise given, much is expected!
  • jR
    james R.
    4 June 2020 @ 00:11
    i’d love to hear a Zoltan interview discussing the state of the Repo rescue.
  • WM
    Will M.
    3 June 2020 @ 13:37
    Interesting interview with Ash and Lakshman. It just feels like our service based economy is more prone to slow recovery and likely to see significant permanent job loss. We were already teetering before this cover impact with debt close to record levels. Now Sovereign debts have soared beyond belief. Now Markets now don't feel "real" at all. Zombie companies are surviving based on cheap debt. It a hot mess.
  • ZY
    ZHENG Y.
    3 June 2020 @ 02:11
    The best background in meeting...i thought is a fake background until a car drive through...
  • CA
    Carlos A.
    2 June 2020 @ 23:41
    Very complex interview with Lakshman, with a great host from Real Vision Ash Bennington. Even with the talent and the efforts from Ash, Lakshman never goes straight to the point like Roubini or Krugman. I know Lakshman always says “ do not predict the predictors”, but based on Raoul's excellent work on "A PEEK INTO THE FUTURE" published on April 23 rd I dare to think that maybe Roaul is going to get a little concerned with this interview. Personally, I only find enormous value on the ECRI when Raoul explains it on his work.
    • mB
      marc B.
      3 June 2020 @ 02:07
      I like hearing view points from other macro guys; but feels like we have heard this view multiple times. I wish he went more into his product and the value of it. What’s unique.
  • LH
    Lik H.
    2 June 2020 @ 23:05
    Your audio track got mixed up - You put the daily briefing track here as well.
  • DS
    David S.
    2 June 2020 @ 22:02
    Nothing happens in normal businesses until there is revenue. Revenue can cover a thousand sins, but a decrease in revenue is always problem. The economic recovery timing is directly related to the course and psychological impacts of the pandemic. There are two main factors: Science - controlling the virus - and Psychology - how will the pandemic affect the consumer’s propensity to spend. The US consumer was the driving engine of world GDP – buy BMWs. If the consumer spending patterns change worldwide who will buy German exports? How long will it take to have worldwide consumer expenditure pick up? Passed economic statistics are interesting, but meaningless until the science is solved. DLS
  • DS
    David S.
    2 June 2020 @ 21:52
    Economic indicators are the wrong road signs. This is about the pandemic. If the economy contracts 50% and recovers 5%, is the 5% a recovery? Economic activity will be completely determined by the scope and timing of the pandemic. Our only controls are social distancing, mitigating treatments and a vaccine. I hope the stock markets are correct, but the market is just the collective bets of a group of human and robot investors. The pandemic is caused by a virus that just wants to reproduce and never sleeps. DLS