The Dollar Milkshake: If Not Now, When? – Live with Brent Johnson

Published on
July 6th, 2020
Duration
54 minutes


The Dollar Milkshake: If Not Now, When? – Live with Brent Johnson

Live ·
Featuring Brent Johnson

Published on: July 6th, 2020 • Duration: 54 minutes

It could be argued that the USD makes the world go round. More than 70% of all global transactions settle in U.S. dollars, and as the reserve currency of the world, it plays an integral role in everything from economics to politics and international relations. While many have diverging views with respect to the overall direction and status of the currency across all time frames, few have ventured into the profundities of the dynamics behind the USD as much as Brent Johnson. You’ve seen him on Real Vision these past few months interviewing experts ranging from William White on monetary policy and Bernd Ondruch on European banks to Lyn Alden on her contrarian view of a strong USD. Today, however, is all about Brent and the Milkshake theory. Will the USD capitulate, or is it in for the short squeeze of all short squeezes before finally taking its inevitable position in the dust bin of history? That is what we will find out in this week’s segment of Real Vision Live with Brent Johnson and Ed Harrison.

Comments

Transcript

  • SP
    Seth P.
    17 July 2020 @ 14:13
    Hi are we able to receive the slide deck that was discussed? Thanks.
  • WM
    Will M.
    12 July 2020 @ 18:38
    Yes I made a lot on gold between 2001 and 2013 but sold a little late. I got out at 1470/ozt and I have just bought back in averaging around 1700. So yes, although I somewhat regret selling in 2013, I for sure regret not buying at 1450 when I almost "pushed" the button. Timing is everything.
    • WM
      Will M.
      12 July 2020 @ 18:43
      I think Ed did a great job here and really has the experience to ask the probing questions. That is really important on this crucial topic.
  • AR
    Anthony R.
    12 July 2020 @ 04:44
    How do you go thumbs down on this discussion?
  • SB
    Stephen B.
    11 July 2020 @ 04:36
    Brent, back in the late 1970's, through the early 80's, I held a senior position, building major capital projects (refinery in Indonesia; offshore facility in Norway; gas processing plant in Kuwait, etc), buying high value equipment from all over the world (Japan, S. Korea, Europe, US etc and locally). These contractors, in turn, would buy sub components from all over the world. The key issue in negotiations was always currency of contract and forex risk. At the start of the decade it was quite common for major contracts to be written in multiple currencies (i.e. a portion in lire, a portion in yen, etc) with the buyer taking significant forex risk. In those early days hedging markets were limited, so we had no choice but to accept this currency risk. By the end of the decade we had all moved to contracting in US$'s. Why? Because, after "big bang" the banks stepped up and started giving us longer and deeper hedging support. That was probably ground zero of your milkshake theory.
  • NF
    Neal F.
    10 July 2020 @ 16:15
    Ed is a world class interviewer. Let's his interviewee roam a bit but pulls him/her back to a conclusion on a question that was relevant to begin with.
  • AT
    Anthony T.
    10 July 2020 @ 11:59
    Happy to have my country (Indonesia) mentioned in the interview. Time to go long GLD, BTC, USD stablecoins
  • VS
    Vafa S.
    10 July 2020 @ 04:01
    Every time I listen to Brent, I learn something new. Ed knows how to extract the max value from the experts. Would certainly appreciate the slides as a part of transcript.
  • AI
    Andras I.
    9 July 2020 @ 23:32
    Thanks for the interview and timely transcripts! Max: Could you please help out our little rally here for the "Rip Van Winkle: Liquidity Edition (Michael Howell)" transcripts? It's particularly relevant now and it had the most interesting data that wasn't mentioned elsewhere. Can we at least get the slide deck? https://www.realvision.com/shows/live/videos/rip-van-winkle-liquidity-edition-live-with-michael-howell?source_collection=cfffd5eb50df4dc4b8e5be35a3ec59c4&autoplay=true Thanks!
  • Am
    Alex m.
    9 July 2020 @ 22:20
    Good move for Brent to expand the understanding of how milkshake fits in his entire portfolio management. You only want to be so heavily bound to a “theory” if it’s a small allocation of capital.
  • DB
    Donna B.
    9 July 2020 @ 22:03
    Excellent deep analysis on potential dollar moves with many charts to support. After watching this video, I also read the transcript for trading ideas. Great job!
  • FB
    Frank B.
    9 July 2020 @ 19:49
    Thanks for laying out your thesis to us so extensively! Well prepared.
  • MC
    Michael C.
    9 July 2020 @ 09:11
    Compelling slides showing the US is not the most profligate nation on a relative basis despite what all the USD bears say.
  • MD
    Matt D.
    9 July 2020 @ 05:47
    Excellent interview. Brent makes a strong clear argument and knows his stuff in detail. Really appreciated this. Some tidbits of intel too which would allow some good trades. Timing would be tricky. A lot of respected people commenting on the Treasury warchest. My own questioning is that I can't believe that is accidental or just being kept in the back pocket for an unknown. Yet again, thanks Brent, and Ed. Great interview.
  • MH
    Matthew H.
    9 July 2020 @ 02:38
    Great interview I always like hearing from Bret. It would be great to see a debate / conversation between him and a thoughtful dollar bear such as Ben Melkman or James Aitken. Both sides make very compelling arguments it would be great to hear them face off.
  • LH
    Leigh H.
    9 July 2020 @ 02:06
    fabulous
  • GG
    Gary G.
    9 July 2020 @ 00:18
    Excellent interview. One of my favorites to date.
  • GK
    Gautam K.
    7 July 2020 @ 21:36
    The much awaited interview/ update on $USD - can’t wait