The Global Macro Litmus Test — Live with Paul Hodges

Published on
October 16th, 2020
60 minutes

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The Global Macro Litmus Test — Live with Paul Hodges

Live ·
Featuring Paul Hodges

Published on: October 16th, 2020 • Duration: 60 minutes

Paul Hodges returns to Real Vision to update Plus and Pro members on his outlook for the global economy. Based on his findings in the October 2020 issue of "The pH Report", Paul Hodges and Max Wiethe will explore what the chemical industry is signaling for the health of the global economy, Hodges’s outlook for oil markets, political risks and uncertainty surrounding the US election and Brexit, and an update on what to expect from China’s 14th 5-year plan. Here's a link to the chart deck:



  • CX
    Cindy X.
    29 October 2020 @ 03:33
    Totally agree with the analysis here. We are wasting so much but still trying to dig things out of ground. Copper is another example. How many copper containing wires and cables do we throw away? Insane world!
  • SJ
    Srinivasa J.
    24 October 2020 @ 13:35
    Mr. Hodges analysis is brilliant. Great insights. When was the Boom , Gloom and the new Normal published? Thanks
    • PH
      Paul H. | Contributor
      26 October 2020 @ 21:08
      2011. Links are here if you want to browse
  • RK
    Roger K.
    25 October 2020 @ 14:41
    I prefer expert view format rather than these hours of chatting- Sorry I don't have any other way to say it. 30min max done and at the end there is a summary as well. Time not wasted!!!
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      26 October 2020 @ 13:26
      Thanks for the feedback Roger. Our data and member feedback tells us that people value the Q&A aspect.
  • AI
    Andras I.
    22 October 2020 @ 06:46
    @15:50: When talking about China, one thing to keep in mind though: it's NOT one country. It's clearly at least 3 societies with very little mobility in-between: * 100M relatively wealthy (on a Western level) * 600M younger urbanised population, who mostly moved from the countryside, working super hard (compared to entitled Westerners) to produce and spend, who left the elderly at home and are growing their wealth at an incredible pace (not just the Tier1 cities but down to Tier3 and more - worth to visit some of the poor provice capitals) * another 600M elderly people in the countryside who (apologies) "costs very little to keep at eternal poverty, until we can spend money on them" ...that's a very different dynamic than what the statistics suggest. The 600M living in poverty can either be ignored without much repercussion as they're also largely voiceless OR (like it's outlined in next few years development plans) focus on them joining the rest, creating another black hole for infrastructure based GDP growth. So in my opinion it creates an option for the decision makers - rather than a drag. Because fairness in the society is not necessarily an urgent requirement.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    20 October 2020 @ 19:35
    The sound of this interview is a little bit difficult one to follow. Maybe is just me but there is something about the tone that makes difficult to understand. The content is superb though.
    • SG
      Steve G.
      22 October 2020 @ 00:24
      Not just you I could not hear or understand what Mr. Hodges was saying half the time.
  • DS
    David S.
    21 October 2020 @ 18:57
    What a fantastic and insightful interview on a range of important topics. China self supplying its own poly was eye opening. Thank you.
  • OA
    Olivier A.
    21 October 2020 @ 00:19
    Great interview, very helpful!
  • FC
    Frank C.
    20 October 2020 @ 21:06
    Mr. Hodges analytical framework is impeccable as always!
  • JM
    John M.
    20 October 2020 @ 17:15
    I remain a contrarian, 18 months ago I bought a second vehicle 1998 Toyota Tacoma (4 cylinder) - runs beautifully! Zero maintenance issues!
    • PH
      Paul H. | Contributor
      20 October 2020 @ 17:55
      You are the perfect role model for our thinking. In fact you were ahead, as we highlighted likely growth in the used car market in May - since when it has dramatically outperformed on price and volume. Thanks!
  • DS
    David S.
    19 October 2020 @ 20:45
    Love to see and hear from Mr. Hodges anytime. I hope he continues presenting on RV even though he is graciously giving us written updates. IMO the one major caveat is the US fiscal stimulus markedly distorted all the US data. The consumer spending charts as well as the stock market would have tanked without the stimulus. Now they will tank without a sizeable new stimulus as congress and the administration are all playing the fiddle in the theater of the absurd. DLS
  • MS
    Martin S.
    19 October 2020 @ 18:53
    Great interview Max. Paul is fountain of knowledge. Look forward to report.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      19 October 2020 @ 19:10
      Thanks Martin. I did want to clarify what you will be getting in terms of reports... I just published his New Normal Insights, which is different than the report mentioned in the piece and is $250/year for a shorter weekly update. The report we were discussing in this interview is his flagship product, The pH Report, which costs $10,000/year. Paul's customers would rightly be upset if it ended up here. I'm fortunate enough to be on his list of free readers because of my position at Real Vision and I love to read it every time it comes out, but I do not have permission to publish it here. On a quarterly basis The pH Report also covers the auto market in a special section and Paul has graciously offered to give Plus and Pro members this section of the report as they come out. The next autos update will be in November.