The New Oil Price War – Live with Warren Pies

Published on
March 13th, 2020
Duration
50 minutes

Rates, Repo, and Eurodollars through a Meltdown — Live with Jeff Snider


The New Oil Price War – Live with Warren Pies

Live ·
Featuring Warren Pies

Published on: March 13th, 2020 • Duration: 50 minutes

This has been a week for the books, oil tumbled nearly 25% on Monday and had its worst day in nearly 30 years which many suspect triggered an epic fall in equities. This coupled with fears over coronavirus spreading has many of us scratching our heads trying to figure out just what in the heck is going on. In response to the massive shocks sustained by the oil market, we are bringing back Warren Pies, chief energy strategist for Ned Davis Research to provide us a timely update on everything oil and energy. This will be free for all Real Vision members as this is information that you simply cannot be without.

Comments

Transcript

  • TN
    Takanori N.
    17 April 2020 @ 04:19
    Thanks for the great video. Listening to an expert like Warren, I realize that oil maybe way out of my circle of competence!
  • MR
    Manager R.
    25 March 2020 @ 14:09
    super contango = buy tankers (stng, tnk, eurn, dht, lpg)
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      25 March 2020 @ 17:14
      Just wait till you see tomorrows video with Harris Kupperman 😉
  • JE
    John E.
    24 March 2020 @ 01:01
    Great content. When is Real Vision going to provide slides referred to in presentations?
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      24 March 2020 @ 02:28
      Hi John, sorry for the delay. No excuse other than we missed it. The charts are added to the end of the transcript.
  • MR
    Milton R. | Founder
    16 March 2020 @ 15:18
    Due to prep for coronavirus, transcripts for RV Live were delayed this past week. Transcripts are now up for all RV Live videos and will be up promptly within 48 hours of all live talks moving forward. Thank you for your patience
    • DS
      David S.
      18 March 2020 @ 05:14
      Thank you for all the hard work. DLS
  • SS
    Sean S.
    15 March 2020 @ 14:40
    Quick question about Contango and Backwardation. Using Contango as an example, my understanding is Contango describes a situation where the futures price is above the *expected* spot price. Where I am struggling is why that scenario would ever occur? If the market expects the spot price to be bellow the futures prices shouldn't participants sell futures contracts until there is equilibrium? What am I missing? Thanks.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      18 March 2020 @ 02:34
      Futures are not a prediction. Please read the chapter In Hull’s derivs textbook about forwards. It has to do with the cost of recreating that exposure synthetically, so it has to do with interest rates and storage costs. Or equity futures which involve dividend assumptions.
  • NB
    Nick B.
    16 March 2020 @ 04:36
    Thank you RV. Thank you Warren. Great interview, well balanced with important take aways. A monthly update slot with Warren im sure would be well received even if it means shortening the duration.
  • RF
    Rick F.
    15 March 2020 @ 20:39
    This guy about lost me when he said the Fox Business channel...
  • CM
    Chris M.
    15 March 2020 @ 16:51
    Great interview. Have EPD and WMB on my watch lists.
  • KK
    Kenneth K.
    15 March 2020 @ 16:24
    Great interview. actually im just thinking if the debt/equity capital markets are engaged with the fallout in the real world, would they continue to invest in US Shale companies with a FCF breakeven of $50-60? Despite the low interest rates, i imagine after being burnt once and now twice (in 4-5 years), they would demand a much higher IRR/premium to invest in these companies (i.e. like modelling a $80 to get a proper IRR for the risk involved). Given that, wouldnt the natural oil price be much higher than the $50-60 before the coronavirus infused sell-off?
  • SS
    Sam S.
    15 March 2020 @ 12:12
    Excellent calm discussion I learned a lot! More please and transcript too. Thank you.
  • MH
    Michael H.
    14 March 2020 @ 23:35
    Excellent! Bring Warren back at least every 8-12 weeks.
  • DS
    David S.
    14 March 2020 @ 23:26
    Excellent. It takes a super smart, experienced person to give practical advice. The political dimension of this price war has not yet been discussed. The major thrust is the US shale market. Russia, however, is an astute tactical political player in the Middle East and winning many friends. I am not smart enough to understand the situation, but it would be interesting to hear someone discuss the political dimension. There is more on the table than the price of oil. DLS
  • JW
    JW2 W.
    14 March 2020 @ 18:20
    One more...we did not discuss the impact of the oil environment on the refiners (like MPC, others). Wonder if Warren can comment on this. Pumping more oil would benefit refiners I guess, but the lower price would hurt.
  • JW
    JW2 W.
    14 March 2020 @ 17:39
    This was a really enjoyable session, very timely and insightful. Thanks for taking my questions.
  • PC
    Petros C.
    14 March 2020 @ 05:18
    Can RV post the charts used in this presentation please?
    • RM
      Richard M.
      14 March 2020 @ 13:46
      And can we get the transcript too? Is was a really informative video, thanks Warren!