The Post-COVID “Social Boom”

Published on
September 21st, 2020
Duration
65 minutes


The Post-COVID “Social Boom”

Live ·
Featuring Daniel McMurtrie

Published on: September 21st, 2020 • Duration: 65 minutes

Dan McMurtrie, managing partner at Tyro Partners LLC, joins Real Vision’s Max Wiethe to discuss the potential upcoming of a “social boom” post-COVID. Dan and Max tease out the historical precedent and the evidence already accumulating for this type of movement, how this new “social boom” may vary from past periods, what might catalyze the momentum toward this outcome, and how investors can position themselves to capitalize on this future renaissance of social activity. To see Dan's charts, go here: https://rvtv.io/3kEdhfj

Comments

Transcript

  • JL
    Jinny L.
    16 October 2020 @ 18:47
    BYND - beyond meat. sep 21 - around 150 october 16 - around 185 up over 20%. great thesis but shorting is way too difficult methinks...
  • EH
    Eric H.
    24 September 2020 @ 20:33
    Do people really think everyone is going to rush out to get whatever "vaccine" is fast-tracked to market?
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      25 September 2020 @ 19:19
      I get a flu shot every year that potentially makes me sick and has much less than 100% effectiveness. I see no difference. People are acting like they are going to shoot us up with adamanthium. (If you get the reference we can be friends)
    • DA
      Dina A.
      11 October 2020 @ 02:47
      I'm sure the gov will come up with an idea to strong arm people into it. No inoculation = no free gov money!
  • JE
    Jeff E.
    30 September 2020 @ 14:35
    In the first minute, Max says "You sent me an article titled, I think it was like, The Post-COVID Social Boom." Is that article available anywhere?
  • AW
    Aaron W.
    26 September 2020 @ 02:23
    Excellent insights
  • AC
    Andrew C.
    25 September 2020 @ 20:42
    I appreciate the opposing view, and it is important to hear Dan out. I just need that opposing view to deconstruct arguments regarding fundamental economic data and earnings data. Labor market growth is still only slightly below the 2009 levels. Labor markets are a lagging indicator and I get that, but it still speaks to earnings power. Not to mention the capacity utilization shock we just took will typically see corporate cash flows 12 - 18 months (historical median) to recover. We are only 5 months into this. Yes, we bounced from the shut down, but retail sales (proxy for consumption) have "rebounded" to a lower level. Initial and continuing claims data disappointed this week. This says something about consumers ability to spend. If you run simulated portfolios that favor disinflationary factors versus stagflationary factors vs. reflationary factors Stagflation began to be favored by the market through August and deflationary has been favored beginning in September. So Mr. Market does not sniff out the V shape recovery thesis. Last, you have to account for the impact on aging baby boomers psychology. Vaccine or no they are not wanting to risk their health to venture out in the way they did pre-2020. This is from conversations I have with clients everyday. They are scared. The riots don't do anything to help. Delinquencies and rotating balances for consumer debt at the big supermarket financial firms don't support the coming spending boom thesis either. I guess you can say, "Well Andrew it hasn't happened yet, but trust me it's coming". Okay I agree that at some point this will pass and their will be opportunity. But show me that thesis materializing in the hard data or survey data, it's just not there yet. I realize there is even oppurtunity right now to make money, and I have been. Just not on the reflation and go-go global growth thesis. Point B will come, but what do we have to traverse to get from A to B? What is the market currently communicating at present? It's not a spending boom! Perhaps this is all about a difference in investing philosophy. I tend to be more of an intermediate term swing trader, because I just found that time frames of 1-6 months worked much better in terms of results for my client base. Dan did mention several times he is trying to look years ahead. In terms of a consensus bear thesis, where is that in the allocation data and sentiment data? It's not there. Like I say I appreciate the other side being told here, but where is the data that supports this narrative?
  • ar
    andrew r.
    25 September 2020 @ 17:24
    Man, Dan is such a sharp young talent. Excellent! (Also a hilarious FinTwit follow.)
  • OM
    Owen M.
    24 September 2020 @ 21:40
    Zig-Zag, love it! Great interview.
    • RD
      Ross D.
      25 September 2020 @ 07:16
      Had to laugh when Zig Zag came up! But definitely a greatz interview.
  • DW
    Dean W.
    23 September 2020 @ 02:01
    Love listening to Dan. Appreciate the short and long ideas. There are definitely certain categories of professional workers, such as engineering, architecture, and other professional services that are never going back to the office. Companies are finding that they can be much more profitable in half or less the space. I hope Dan is right about the increased socializing.
    • PS
      Paul S.
      25 September 2020 @ 05:00
      I can assure you architects are definitely returning to the office Collaboration over Teams videos is a joke and a huge waste of time People are losing their minds stuck in their homes - seeing weird behavior as a result
  • DS
    David S.
    22 September 2020 @ 20:24
    I wonder when we made the leap of faith that government can save most everyone every time. History does not support this belief. DLS
    • VK
      Viresh K.
      23 September 2020 @ 09:24
      No, but history is complicated and it never says that they can’t do it for a short period like now...
    • DS
      David S.
      24 September 2020 @ 22:29
      Viresh K. - Suffering through a pandemic is an appropriate time for the government to help people and some businesses make it through. It is the constant printing of money to cover up for excess spending and tax reductions that has broken countries including the US over the last 50 years. Are we to repeat the process for the next 50 years? The answer is no, as the US, Euroland and China are too far in debt to find people to buy their bonds. No one knows what will happen, but the debt forever card has been played. The Bank of China at least is paying its savers 3.85%. This will not help non-Chinese savers as the FX will probably wipe out any interest payments. DLS
  • KA
    Kelly A.
    24 September 2020 @ 20:14
    Awesome interview. Just great. Thanks!!
  • TR
    Theodore R.
    23 September 2020 @ 04:54
    Since I said in my post below that I want to help others, for those newer on the platform, please look for the 2-part video Grant did w/ Tony Deden. Talking about investing... wow BTW, Raoul pls see if you can pull some strings to get Tony to come back. At least once more. Thanks.
    • JS
      John S.
      23 September 2020 @ 05:54
      I agree. Getting Deden's take on the current situation and how it has affected his investment strategy would be priceless
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      23 September 2020 @ 13:31
      I'll see what can be done.
    • JB
      Jason B. | Contributor
      24 September 2020 @ 14:31
      Do you really think Deden has changed anything?
  • YD
    Yusuf D.
    24 September 2020 @ 11:17
    Great Interview. Can RV Please get Victor Sparendeo back on. I feel his views are very practical.
  • JS
    Jon S.
    23 September 2020 @ 01:54
    Wuhan is running again and China has told us nothing about the virus. The clock is ticking for the next virus... unfortunately, we are doing nothing to prevent this will not happen again. I hope after we have a vaccine we will make sure that no world Organization makes the mistakes the WHO made here and no Country can secretely close domestic flights from the city epicenter and keep open international ones. I am not taking about markets, I am talking about how things played out... and can play out again if we do not look into the origins of why the virus spreaded all over the world. Why so many peoole needed to die and are still dying so many medical workers work untiredlessly and in some countries with almost no resources. Why the Chinese diaspora were sending masks all over the world and left the countries without them. Why the who needed so long to declare global pandemic situation. We can get a cure, but we will not prevent from happening again until we tackle the issues behinnd and circumstances which led this to happen.
    • AI
      Andras I.
      24 September 2020 @ 04:12
      Do you really believe the Western intelligence community had less clue about what's going on than the average Chinese person? That's what you're implying with the comments about closing flights. And the WHO has other considerations than just proclaiming the end of the world without confirmation (a delay of a few days in the big scheme of things). Without the benefit of 100% hindsight, they have a weapon of mass destruction in their hand, not something to handle lightly. It was obvious to those of us with exposure to China (but even some of the mainstream economist talking about it when there were only a few cases!) that this is a global pandemic, whatever the media (and certain politicians) were trying to make us believe. Where we unfortunately ended was part a deliberate economic consideration over lives, part populism, part ego...You name it. It wasn't lack of information, that's a certainty.
  • JC
    Julian C.
    23 September 2020 @ 21:36
    Great stuff guys thanks. McMurtrie is one of the most thoughtful managers out there.
  • TR
    Theodore R.
    23 September 2020 @ 04:30
    Honest to god, I made a serious effort to finish the video (founding member here). As someone commented below, I also find great value in listening to opposing views. I’m sure both Dan and Max tried to add value. However, Dan lost me when he politicized the vaccine (not to mention his certainty on the discovery)... left leaning people may decline the vaccination... those who will not get vaccinated will become pariahs... not exact quotes here but something along these lines. Really Dan? So if a credible vaccine comes out, we should not try to inquire about its effectiveness and/or potential to cause side effects? Those of us who will, will be pariahs until convinced? Dan, if I misunderstand you, sincere apologies but I do have kids that I need to raise and am responsible for and what goes in their body, or mine, matters. At least I have the right to be convinced based on scientific evidence, which I’m sure will not be freely available when/if we get there. I’m not American but got educated, lived and worked over there and love the country and most of its people. If you allow me, the US of A was what it was cause it didn’t really matter whether blue or red was in charge. Not the case lately. So if we’re to get vaccinated, I thought Russian scientists came out with something... And I’m serious here. Why is the ROW scientific community not looking at it? Perhaps I’m misinformed and everyone is doing the necessary scientific analysis to determine its efficacy, or even to improve on it if possible. Are we giving ourselves a chance as a global community? I’d be the first in line to get this one or another as I don’t care who discovers the damn thing. I know you’re all bored by now, so let me go back to my world where Chipotle is not allowed to exist, let alone analyzed. In my world, wealth means being able to tell the difference between a tomato and a cucumber if I keep my eyes closed and fresh fish is gold. God I hate listed companies and associated story-telling. Please talk to me about private companies in which I would have loved to invest but the family running it does not want to take my money. Apologies if I offended anybody. Not my intention. A lot of frustration and an old man going out of his comfort zone to hopefully help others question things. Thank you.
    • DM
      Daniel M. | Contributor
      23 September 2020 @ 14:57
      Theo - I don't think it's *right* but I do think that's how it will play out. My intent was not to politicize it but just to relay what is already showing up in polling. The vaccine is politicized already in the US. The American left is net more skeptical of any vaccine they perceive to be rushed by Trump, and Americans in general are skeptical of any foreign vaccine. Problematic, but that's how it is.
    • TR
      Theodore R.
      23 September 2020 @ 18:20
      Hey Dan, thanks for the great response and for the time to read my comment. It does show that you’re a sharp manager who tries to see things how they possibly are and not how they should be. I’m in a different place and feel blessed. All the best.
  • PG
    Philippe G.
    23 September 2020 @ 13:59
    - Great points on long-term decisions being made in this "short-term" stress period, perception gaps, and the social pressure/psychology... - People exiling themselves to the suburbs to watch Netflix, bake sourdough bread, learn to knit, etc...not the "new normal" for the long-term I think. People want their lives back, to go out, to travel, etc... - Appreciate the several picks and elevator pitches, not often we hear that on RV...Yes, I'm aware of the reasons why...
  • TE
    Tom E.
    23 September 2020 @ 08:33
    Some useful thoughts, thought processes and questions in that interview, regardless of whether I agree with all the views. Thank you RV for the content.
  • BA
    Bob A.
    23 September 2020 @ 04:17
    He made many good points and I very much appreciated he brought names and detailed cases for those names. While I think it may take longer than he thinks to play out, I do think he is right that there will be a slingshot effect. I'd enjoy seeing him again.
  • BT
    Brian T.
    23 September 2020 @ 03:02
    He will probably be right to look for winners but the view may also be early.
  • MC
    Mick C.
    23 September 2020 @ 02:27
    As some others have commented, I don't share his views on the economy/COVID-19, but he makes some valuable points throughout this video. For example, his focus on companies that are able to capitalize on their industry's dislocations while accessing today's cheap debt market. Always good to hear a view different than yours, better to incorporate as much as you can to improve your framework and process.
  • BG
    Bastian G.
    22 September 2020 @ 21:08
    One of the best RV interviews, great insights. No hype, interesting outlook! And finally someone saying that people who went unemployed during the crisis didn't drive the needle to begin with. Sad but true.
    • AR
      Anthony R.
      23 September 2020 @ 01:54
      I had friends 'in the know' say the same thing about SubPrime mortgage holders in 2007. Very dismissive. Very wrong - as we all saw....
  • YB
    Yuriy B.
    22 September 2020 @ 20:24
    What was the name of the "last mile delivery company" he mentioned? I heard "Shift Group", but that doesn't seem to map to any entity Google recognizes.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      22 September 2020 @ 21:10
      $SHYF https://theshyftgroup.com
  • SW
    Steven W.
    22 September 2020 @ 19:01
    I work with about 100 or so businesses in our community, mostly interacting with C-levels as an IT consultant. Most of them have been amazed about what they have been able to do from home and how convenient it is. Many of them have decided that they will keep a physical office, but that they will downgrade the space and location and keep a portion of employee's at home. For example, the largest specialty medical clinic in our county has a very expensive lease right next to the hospital. Their takeaway from COVID is that they are throwing money away on an entire floor when in reality 30-50% of the employee's don't need to be in the office. Only the caregivers need to be hospital adjacent. People are willing to take reduced pay and work from home, especially the ones that commute over an hour to get downtown. It also opens up the ability to bring people into the workforce part-time, from home, who are happy to work half-time with reduced benefits.
    • NW
      Nathan W.
      22 September 2020 @ 20:17
      Agree that a lot of workflow / workforce trends are being impacted and shifting but seems to MCMurtrie's point that the pendulum will revert back to some middle area. Further decentralized and remote than what it was but not the full death knell of cities and centralized workplaces. Communal creatures need real, physical community and (once the fear guage recedes) will seek out ways to reattain that existence. I think that point about missing out on water cooler conversation and the like is critical. We're just not consistently (and perhaps more importantly... passively) connected in the same way that we want.
  • DS
    David S.
    22 September 2020 @ 18:24
    I think Mr. McMurtrie underestimates the economic and social damage that COVID-19 is causing in the world. DLS
    • JR
      Jason R.
      22 September 2020 @ 19:27
      Totally agree. It's frustrating listening to him drone on (he talked non-stop for over 13 minutes at the front-end of this - 1:23 - 14:33) without actually going deep into any of the issues. Anyone who knows anything about complex adaptive systems and the wicked problems that emerge from them knows that they have no stopping rule. COVID and what it has wrought financially, economically, socially, etc. are all examples of wicked problems. A very naive view presented by Daniel in my opinion.
    • DS
      David S.
      22 September 2020 @ 20:02
      Jason R. - I think the themes of his trades will take much longer to play out in Western Economies. His trading timeframes will be more appropriate to countries that handled the pandemic and their economies well. When it comes to individual company analysis, I agree with his approach and selected examples. DLS
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    22 September 2020 @ 19:55
    I agree with his outlook on the virus, but not the economy nor equity prices. We are already at a very high level on equities it’s hard for me to see how higher this goes, without something really groundbreaking happening.
  • SS
    Stephen S.
    22 September 2020 @ 19:40
    I don’t think you will see a Renaissance in the cities for awhile because you may not have as high of prices but you also don’t have safety. You need a certain level of order for culture to flourish within.
  • NF
    Neal F.
    22 September 2020 @ 19:29
    I don't agree with Dan's outlook but he made a sound argument. Glad I listened to a competing view.