BYND - beyond meat. sep 21 - around 150 october 16 - around 185 up over 20%. great thesis but shorting is way too difficult methinks...

Do people really think everyone is going to rush out to get whatever "vaccine" is fast-tracked to market?

In the first minute, Max says "You sent me an article titled, I think it was like, The Post-COVID Social Boom." Is that article available anywhere?

Excellent insights

I appreciate the opposing view, and it is important to hear Dan out. I just need that opposing view to deconstruct arguments regarding fundamental economic data and earnings data. Labor market growth is still only slightly below the 2009 levels. Labor markets are a lagging indicator and I get that, but it still speaks to earnings power. Not to mention the capacity utilization shock we just took will typically see corporate cash flows 12 - 18 months (historical median) to recover. We are only 5 months into this. Yes, we bounced from the shut down, but retail sales (proxy for consumption) have "rebounded" to a lower level. Initial and continuing claims data disappointed this week. This says something about consumers ability to spend. If you run simulated portfolios that favor disinflationary factors versus stagflationary factors vs. reflationary factors Stagflation began to be favored by the market through August and deflationary has been favored beginning in September. So Mr. Market does not sniff out the V shape recovery thesis. Last, you have to account for the impact on aging baby boomers psychology. Vaccine or no they are not wanting to risk their health to venture out in the way they did pre-2020. This is from conversations I have with clients everyday. They are scared. The riots don't do anything to help. Delinquencies and rotating balances for consumer debt at the big supermarket financial firms don't support the coming spending boom thesis either. I guess you can say, "Well Andrew it hasn't happened yet, but trust me it's coming". Okay I agree that at some point this will pass and their will be opportunity. But show me that thesis materializing in the hard data or survey data, it's just not there yet. I realize there is even oppurtunity right now to make money, and I have been. Just not on the reflation and go-go global growth thesis. Point B will come, but what do we have to traverse to get from A to B? What is the market currently communicating at present? It's not a spending boom! Perhaps this is all about a difference in investing philosophy. I tend to be more of an intermediate term swing trader, because I just found that time frames of 1-6 months worked much better in terms of results for my client base. Dan did mention several times he is trying to look years ahead. In terms of a consensus bear thesis, where is that in the allocation data and sentiment data? It's not there. Like I say I appreciate the other side being told here, but where is the data that supports this narrative?

Man, Dan is such a sharp young talent. Excellent! (Also a hilarious FinTwit follow.)

Zig-Zag, love it! Great interview.

Love listening to Dan. Appreciate the short and long ideas. There are definitely certain categories of professional workers, such as engineering, architecture, and other professional services that are never going back to the office. Companies are finding that they can be much more profitable in half or less the space. I hope Dan is right about the increased socializing.

I wonder when we made the leap of faith that government can save most everyone every time. History does not support this belief. DLS

Awesome interview. Just great. Thanks!!

Since I said in my post below that I want to help others, for those newer on the platform, please look for the 2-part video Grant did w/ Tony Deden. Talking about investing... wow BTW, Raoul pls see if you can pull some strings to get Tony to come back. At least once more. Thanks.

Great Interview. Can RV Please get Victor Sparendeo back on. I feel his views are very practical.

Wuhan is running again and China has told us nothing about the virus. The clock is ticking for the next virus... unfortunately, we are doing nothing to prevent this will not happen again. I hope after we have a vaccine we will make sure that no world Organization makes the mistakes the WHO made here and no Country can secretely close domestic flights from the city epicenter and keep open international ones. I am not taking about markets, I am talking about how things played out... and can play out again if we do not look into the origins of why the virus spreaded all over the world. Why so many peoole needed to die and are still dying so many medical workers work untiredlessly and in some countries with almost no resources. Why the Chinese diaspora were sending masks all over the world and left the countries without them. Why the who needed so long to declare global pandemic situation. We can get a cure, but we will not prevent from happening again until we tackle the issues behinnd and circumstances which led this to happen.

Great stuff guys thanks. McMurtrie is one of the most thoughtful managers out there.

Honest to god, I made a serious effort to finish the video (founding member here). As someone commented below, I also find great value in listening to opposing views. I’m sure both Dan and Max tried to add value. However, Dan lost me when he politicized the vaccine (not to mention his certainty on the discovery)... left leaning people may decline the vaccination... those who will not get vaccinated will become pariahs... not exact quotes here but something along these lines. Really Dan? So if a credible vaccine comes out, we should not try to inquire about its effectiveness and/or potential to cause side effects? Those of us who will, will be pariahs until convinced? Dan, if I misunderstand you, sincere apologies but I do have kids that I need to raise and am responsible for and what goes in their body, or mine, matters. At least I have the right to be convinced based on scientific evidence, which I’m sure will not be freely available when/if we get there. I’m not American but got educated, lived and worked over there and love the country and most of its people. If you allow me, the US of A was what it was cause it didn’t really matter whether blue or red was in charge. Not the case lately. So if we’re to get vaccinated, I thought Russian scientists came out with something... And I’m serious here. Why is the ROW scientific community not looking at it? Perhaps I’m misinformed and everyone is doing the necessary scientific analysis to determine its efficacy, or even to improve on it if possible. Are we giving ourselves a chance as a global community? I’d be the first in line to get this one or another as I don’t care who discovers the damn thing. I know you’re all bored by now, so let me go back to my world where Chipotle is not allowed to exist, let alone analyzed. In my world, wealth means being able to tell the difference between a tomato and a cucumber if I keep my eyes closed and fresh fish is gold. God I hate listed companies and associated story-telling. Please talk to me about private companies in which I would have loved to invest but the family running it does not want to take my money. Apologies if I offended anybody. Not my intention. A lot of frustration and an old man going out of his comfort zone to hopefully help others question things. Thank you.

- Great points on long-term decisions being made in this "short-term" stress period, perception gaps, and the social pressure/psychology... - People exiling themselves to the suburbs to watch Netflix, bake sourdough bread, learn to knit, etc...not the "new normal" for the long-term I think. People want their lives back, to go out, to travel, etc... - Appreciate the several picks and elevator pitches, not often we hear that on RV...Yes, I'm aware of the reasons why...

Some useful thoughts, thought processes and questions in that interview, regardless of whether I agree with all the views. Thank you RV for the content.

He made many good points and I very much appreciated he brought names and detailed cases for those names. While I think it may take longer than he thinks to play out, I do think he is right that there will be a slingshot effect. I'd enjoy seeing him again.

He will probably be right to look for winners but the view may also be early.

As some others have commented, I don't share his views on the economy/COVID-19, but he makes some valuable points throughout this video. For example, his focus on companies that are able to capitalize on their industry's dislocations while accessing today's cheap debt market. Always good to hear a view different than yours, better to incorporate as much as you can to improve your framework and process.

One of the best RV interviews, great insights. No hype, interesting outlook! And finally someone saying that people who went unemployed during the crisis didn't drive the needle to begin with. Sad but true.

What was the name of the "last mile delivery company" he mentioned? I heard "Shift Group", but that doesn't seem to map to any entity Google recognizes.

I work with about 100 or so businesses in our community, mostly interacting with C-levels as an IT consultant. Most of them have been amazed about what they have been able to do from home and how convenient it is. Many of them have decided that they will keep a physical office, but that they will downgrade the space and location and keep a portion of employee's at home. For example, the largest specialty medical clinic in our county has a very expensive lease right next to the hospital. Their takeaway from COVID is that they are throwing money away on an entire floor when in reality 30-50% of the employee's don't need to be in the office. Only the caregivers need to be hospital adjacent. People are willing to take reduced pay and work from home, especially the ones that commute over an hour to get downtown. It also opens up the ability to bring people into the workforce part-time, from home, who are happy to work half-time with reduced benefits.

I think Mr. McMurtrie underestimates the economic and social damage that COVID-19 is causing in the world. DLS

I agree with his outlook on the virus, but not the economy nor equity prices. We are already at a very high level on equities it’s hard for me to see how higher this goes, without something really groundbreaking happening.

I don’t think you will see a Renaissance in the cities for awhile because you may not have as high of prices but you also don’t have safety. You need a certain level of order for culture to flourish within.

I don't agree with Dan's outlook but he made a sound argument. Glad I listened to a competing view.