The World Beyond Our Shores – Live with Michael Nicoletos

Published on
May 12th, 2020
Duration
61 minutes

The Halvening – Live with Balaji Srinivasan


The World Beyond Our Shores – Live with Michael Nicoletos

Live ·
Featuring Michael Nicoletos

Published on: May 12th, 2020 • Duration: 61 minutes

Coronavirus has ravaged countries around the planet and decimated economies indiscriminately. However, given the extraordinary policy decisions made inside of the United States, and their implications on the global economy, it can sometimes seem as though other parts of the world are relegated to the proverbial “back pages.” This week on Real Vision Live, we are leaving the shores of the U.S. behind to delve into the world of emerging market economies and the European Union. Michael Nicoletos, CIO and co-founder of AppleTree Capital will join Ed Harrison for a wide ranging discussion on everything from geopolitics and macroeconomics to the most international market of all, the foreign exchange market.

Comments

Transcript

  • JW
    John W.
    21 May 2020 @ 09:56
    Great interview. Could someone kindly expound for a layperson what “exporting your deflation” means in the real world?
  • CW
    C W.
    20 May 2020 @ 12:43
    Excellent interview. My only regrets of sorts is not having heard or read about Mr Nicoletos earlier. I think his reading of the EU situation could very well be spot on. It'll be great to have him on as a guest every so often. Well done too, Ed!
  • JL
    James L.
    18 May 2020 @ 01:46
    This was great! Will there be a transcript for this?
    • MR
      Milton R. | Founder
      18 May 2020 @ 18:30
      Yup, posted
  • PB
    PHILLIP B.
    17 May 2020 @ 22:12
    Really great exchange. Thank you both.
  • II
    IDA I.
    17 May 2020 @ 07:55
    Mr. Nicoletos, couldn't the devaluation of the CNY (China letting go of the peg) simply be the event? Such an event would be deflationary for the Eurozone and Germany, with USDCNY at 9, don't you think that we would see also EURUSD at 0,9 and the nationalization of some French and German banks maybe? I believe that this would be the Lehman event as after that, China would regain control of it's monetary policy and we will inflation shortly after, I hope you may comment
  • II
    IDA I.
    17 May 2020 @ 07:46
    I wrote on twitter months ago that negative rates in the Eurozone have only made damage, and destroyed the banking system, and I have only received disagreement on this, everyone so thank you Mr. Nicoletos. Unfortunately the banks in Europe will probably have to be nationalized, I think the Fed will reflect on this too.
  • II
    IDA I.
    17 May 2020 @ 07:37
    this was really excellent thanks
  • BS
    Bryan S.
    16 May 2020 @ 21:45
    Fantastic interview. Thank you!
  • TP
    Timothy P.
    16 May 2020 @ 16:26
    I agree with Mr. Nicoletos, I don't see how this can be a "V" recovery in any sense. The second-order effects of this economic firestorm haven't even been felt yet. The number of jobs destroyed, the businesses that aren't coming back--in addition to cashflow being a severe problem, many "bargain hunters" won't be able to afford snapping up distressed properties and companies in the first place. In the USA, state budgets have a huge hole, even the states that had some budget reserves, since they are burning through them at a high rate with specific local programs and support. That won't be an easy gap to plug. This will increase state taxes and property taxes, further intensifying the amount of citizen outflow to other states. This hornets nest has been shaken and fallen out of the tree, its going to take some time for demand to come close to what is considered "normal". And all the while, every central bank will be expanding their balance sheets at a frantic rate.
  • NK
    Nick K.
    16 May 2020 @ 14:50
    Hi Guys, any chance of getting the transcripts for this interview. I found it brilliant when considering my circumstances and I would love to have the content in a file I can refer back to easily across the range of topics discussed. Many thanks!
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    16 May 2020 @ 09:16
    The South African Rand has not priced in the crisis unfolding in SA. Budget deficit as % of GDP could be 15-20% of GDP this year as the economy implodes. Covid, and the extended lock down/economic shutdown, is bringing the the IMF bailout forward, fast.
  • SD
    Steve D.
    15 May 2020 @ 15:53
    This guy may very well be the best interview in the history of RV and I've been a subscriber since almost the beginning. Hope you have him on as a regular.
  • DS
    David S.
    14 May 2020 @ 21:27
    Thank you Mr. Nicoletos and Mr. Harrison for an excellent interview. I shall watch it again. Mr. Nicoletos presents complex information in a direct way that I can understand. I really appreciate that. He did two presentations before on RVTV – a think piece and one on Greek debt. The RVTV library is really a great tool. DLS
    • MN
      Michael N. | Contributor
      15 May 2020 @ 12:12
      Thank you for your kind words, I hope I was helpful.
  • DS
    David S.
    14 May 2020 @ 21:01
    Mr. Harrison the outcome of Euroland is not binary - break up or single union. The longer the pandemic last the lower the economies of all will be. Just because Germany and the Netherlands have better buffers now, does not mean that they will not exceed those buffers. How many years ago was Germany was the poor man of Europe? Germany has done a great job in rebuilding the German economy and their monetary reserves. German is not, however, going to snapback. The European market is not going to snapback. Populism is on the rise in Europe and countries will take care of themselves first. This is an existential crisis for many governments, corporations, businesses and people. No one will ride though this crisis in good shape - remember counterparty risks when investing. It will be with us until we find much better treatments and/or a vaccine. The longer the pandemic the more existential threats. DLS
    • DS
      David S.
      15 May 2020 @ 01:34
      Mr. Harrison, I now understand your definition of snapback. If the STOXX declines 50% and then rises 2% that is an investable snapback. It could decline another 25% and then snapback 10% that is another investable snapback. It is buying the dip as you saw that Germany was opening from the massive pandemic. My definition of snapback is incorrect. I thought of snapback as a turning point, a significant change from the underlying trend hopefully to a recovery. Sorry for all the confusion. DLS
  • tr
    tom r.
    15 May 2020 @ 01:11
    So far the recovery looks much more V shaped than L shaped. It is rare that you interview a person who thinks we will see a V shape recovery. The fact is no one knows what will happen. Personally, I am mostly selling puts on stocks I want to own taking advantage of the huge fear premiums. I do know many business people and nearly all are telling me their sales are up. Our own company is up double digits over last year. Pls add some balance to your interviews. There are many very interesting gold miners that are also doing very well.
  • jR
    james R.
    14 May 2020 @ 17:09
    b nice to have ‘bookmarks’ on these live chats to enable viewing select chunks by subject
  • JM
    Josh M.
    14 May 2020 @ 15:16
    Thanks a lot, I really enjoyed that.
  • JM
    Josh M.
    14 May 2020 @ 15:16
    Thanks a lot, I really enjoyed that.
  • SG
    Steve G.
    14 May 2020 @ 13:42
    This was surprisingly good. Very good at explaining his thought process.
  • DR
    De R.
    14 May 2020 @ 11:24
    Is there anyone who can chime in on Asean prospect?
  • HS
    Hugh S.
    14 May 2020 @ 10:59
    Great to hear a different perspective.
  • SS
    Shanthi S.
    14 May 2020 @ 07:28
    Thank you both. Great chat.