Trading Irrationality – Live with Michele “Mish” Schneider

Published on
April 12th, 2020
Duration
71 minutes

Our Finest Hour – Live with Danielle DiMartino Booth & Ben Hunt


Trading Irrationality – Live with Michele “Mish” Schneider

Live ·
Featuring Michele “Mish” Schneider

Published on: April 12th, 2020 • Duration: 71 minutes

Market reaction to the onset of COVID-19 has been volatile and uncertain. Entire economies have closed down, over 1 million individuals have been infected, 17 million people have filed for unemployment in the US, and GDP is set to contract at the highest rate since the Great Depression. Yet, the market is up. What can we possibly make of all this seemingly irrational price action? And more importantly, how can we trade all of this? The one and only, Michele “Mish” Schneider joins us on this week’s Real Vision Live to answer just that. She will guide viewers deep into the technicals of the wild market and revisit her famous economic modern family charts, oil, the USD, gold, broad market bottom/tops and more.

Comments

Transcript

  • VS
    Victor S. | Contributor
    27 April 2020 @ 17:40
    Mish an fyi you stated oil hit $79 in 1979 ...only went to $38.01. High. Also you said we had “hyperinflation” which is defined by Phil Cagan 1956 (everyone uses this ) as a 50% in one month .High was 13.31% At the end of the year never close to the standard definition in. 1979.
  • II
    IDA I.
    20 April 2020 @ 13:47
    thank you this really was interesting
  • MS
    Michael S.
    16 April 2020 @ 19:35
    Transcript?
    • GH
      Gabrielle H. | Real Vision
      16 April 2020 @ 20:28
      Hi Michael, the transcript is now available for download!
  • MO
    Marcus O.
    13 April 2020 @ 22:52
    Is there any evidence that she beats the market on a long term basis (through recent recessions) using these strategies? Her methods sound formulaic and pseudo-sciency. I wonder if they worked better in the past. If there really is opportunity it seems like it could easily be bested by AI. I think one of the incoming questions was prescient. I don't mean to be rude or disparaging; I am just surprised if this stuff actually works.
    • MW
      Max W. | Real Vision
      14 April 2020 @ 00:08
      The short answer is yes. Mish has been doing this a long time, though her methods have evolved with the market. As with all trading methodologies nothing is 100%, but with proper risk management and strict adherence to process there are many different "formulaic" ways to trade profitably. This is the opening to a piece written yesterday by a hedge fund manager who's private twitter I subscribe to. As I'm not giving away any of his trades or analysis I hope he will not mind... "I’ve found over the years that not only does market analysis not need to be complex, but complexity often makes things worse. Our propensity to overthink is as dangerous as it is hard to resist. The joke at my old firm when I would get something wrong, or lament about having to stop out of a trade, was “you’ve got to get a lot dumber if you want to be a really good trader.” And, like most effective humor, there was more than a kernel of truth to it. My fundamental background made it very hard for me to avoid getting lost in the weeds. I’d typically either be putting too much weight on what were really second/third order effects or applying longer-term analysis to a much shorter-term trade horizon. These days, I feel like I’m finally dumb enough to be a decent trader. As many of you have probably noticed, I try hard to keep things really, really simple. I focus on sentiment swings, positioning, and plausible narratives. I then match these thoughts up against chart and correlation patterns. What follows is what I’m seeing now."
    • DY
      Donald Y.
      15 April 2020 @ 02:14
      Technical analysis really works, but you will probably need 10+ years of practice day in and day out to get it right. Maybe 2-3 years if you follow a mentor who knows what they are doing and you make pages of notes every single day on the markets. Active trading is the Olympics of the finance industry, and that's why so many people lose. Imagine yourself with no practice in any sport, walking into an Olympic event, thinking that you have any chance of beating the olympic athletes there to fight for gold, AND you bet your own money that you will beat them. How do you think that will pan out? So since you are asking that question, I think you better stay away from active trading and do whatever it is you are good at. Just because you can click a mouse to make a trade, doesn't mean you should and that it "should be" easy or even fair. The whole world is doing whatever they can to make it "unfair" (as they should, just like the athletes).
    • MC
      Michael C.
      16 April 2020 @ 20:25
      Just out of interest what other technical indicators do you guys use? I'm using the basics such as 50 / 200 day moving averages. Anything you guys found useful beside those?
  • LA
    Linda A.
    16 April 2020 @ 16:05
    Thank u, Mish! U are terrific!
  • lm
    luke m.
    15 April 2020 @ 10:40
    AMAZING interview, so the NIKKEI ran from around 3500 in 1980 all the way to 35000 in 1990 over a 10 year period before the central bank supposedly stepped in and begun buying stocks. Similarly the American markets have experienced approximately had a 4X move over the last 10 years and now the FED has stepped in and begun buying ETFs. Do we know whether the BOJ was secretly buying stocks during that insane 10X rally between 1980-90 because a 10X moves seems astronomical and if so can we expect the American markets to thrive under this new MMT,QE environonment after this correction has concluded or should we be expecting a 30 year period of no growth and low stock market performance like the Japanese ?? any insight would be appreciated as I'm interested in how it will all unfold :)
  • AK
    Adam K.
    15 April 2020 @ 09:31
    Please boost the volume or apply some audio compression, its pretty quiet. <3
  • KK
    Kevin K.
    15 April 2020 @ 04:54
    Absolutely underrated- master technical analyst- I see everything she explained in the charts.
  • SD
    Simeon D.
    15 April 2020 @ 04:37
    Great video. Very informative.
  • MM
    Michael M.
    15 April 2020 @ 02:28
    really actionable overview on markets. thanks a lot
  • DL
    Dominic L.
    14 April 2020 @ 23:32
    For something like Biotech, would an ETF be an OK substitute for investing in individual companies?
  • KE
    Kathryn E.
    14 April 2020 @ 19:53
    Thanks Mish, this has been awesome
  • AW
    Adam W.
    14 April 2020 @ 14:09
    Loved this.
  • DR
    David R.
    14 April 2020 @ 12:55
    I just watched this replay and it's one of the better RV episodes I've seen. She demonstrated a great process that blends technical and fundamental foundations and presented them clearly in the context of today's market conditions. Her responses to intelligent questions were insightful and everything was topnotch. Highly recommended.