Unprecedented: A Relative Term – Live with Tavi Costa

Published on
July 16th, 2020
Duration
58 minutes


Unprecedented: A Relative Term – Live with Tavi Costa

Live ·
Featuring Tavi Costa

Published on: July 16th, 2020 • Duration: 58 minutes

To say that we live in uncertain times would be an understatement. The use of the term “unprecedented” has become ubiquitous in financial reporting -- and for good reason. The level of fiscal and monetary policy responses to the coronavirus crisis have literally never been seen before. However, the unprecedented nature is in magnitude, not occurrence. As Sir John Templeton said, “The four most expensive words in the English language are 'It’s different this time.'” We’ve been here before, and macro investors in particular make it their business to identify shifts in long term trends and turn them into money. To this end, Tavi Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, will be joining us this week to explain why he holds high conviction views on three distinct themes: China's credit and currency bubble, the downturn of the global economic cycle, and lastly, what he regards as a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy precious metals.

Comments

Transcript

  • tr
    tom r.
    30 July 2020 @ 23:04
    A brilliant young man with a lot of great answers. I am a heavy precious metal investor so this is especially of interest. Currencies are obviously very important as well. I like his pairs trades. Need more interviews like this. The Robinhood effect is also very interesting.
  • ES
    Edward S.
    28 July 2020 @ 19:35
    Everything you ever wanted to know about gold / gold miners / currency. Great and timely interview.
  • MR
    Michel R. | Real Vision
    21 July 2020 @ 16:21
    Hi everyone, here are the charts from the session. https://rvtv.io/3hsSCtj
  • AF
    Andre F.
    18 July 2020 @ 06:02
    Tavi Costa's prior appearance on RV was just excellent. It's really good to see him back. Please also have Kevin Smith (founder and CIO at Crescat) back on at some point, perhaps sooner rather than later to give an update on the anticipated breakdown of the Hong Kong peg. Crescat had been positioned for this event.
    • NK
      Nir K.
      18 July 2020 @ 11:09
      What’s wrong with Aus dollar
    • AF
      Andre F.
      21 July 2020 @ 05:08
      The Australian dollar was not mentioned in the video nor anywhere in the comment section.
  • ds
    durgesh s.
    20 July 2020 @ 12:55
    The charts are very important in this talk pl
  • MJ
    Marius J.
    20 July 2020 @ 11:59
    Thanks for specific trades one can do as an retail investor
  • PJ
    Paul J.
    19 July 2020 @ 11:44
    As someone who's extremely long gold exploration and PM's, I enjoyed the interview. However I think he's not very accurate in some views on China, considering the recent surge in Iron Ore as well as copper and Oil imports and the subsequent rally in prices. Long term I still think China is a massive house of cards, but short term, they are going back to their old playbook of massive infrastructure and property investment.
    • KB
      Keith B.
      19 July 2020 @ 12:39
      There will be a new infrastructure drive after the floods.
  • DF
    Diamantino F.
    19 July 2020 @ 11:56
    Gold minning????? as a trade maybe as value i really can't see it, it's such a tought Business! Juniors!!!
  • CX
    Cindy X.
    18 July 2020 @ 23:44
    Too bad his economic analysis is clouded by his wrong political views from main stream media. He is going to lose big like many hedge funds. They superficial understanding of the world.
    • RD
      REMCO D.
      19 July 2020 @ 03:16
      Please elaborate?
  • AR
    Anthony R.
    19 July 2020 @ 02:09
    meh.
  • DS
    David S.
    18 July 2020 @ 22:54
    Solid and enjoyable interview. Betting against China and the Yuan is difficult. They can precipitate a short squeeze at will. The US isolationism and lack of support for our traditional allies allows China to take advantage of the openings. Trading precious metals and miners is easier for me. DLS
  • BH
    Bin H.
    18 July 2020 @ 01:42
    The question still, why now?
    • DS
      David S.
      18 July 2020 @ 22:45
      Good question. I think these are long-term trades including the hedge - professional. It is working so far. Why not continue? I am not hedged, but still believe in the trade with small sizing - amateur. DLS
  • ly
    lena y.
    18 July 2020 @ 21:45
    I'm at odd with the comment CNY is the most depreciated currency. Canadian $ lost more than CNY since 2013!
  • BS
    Bevyn S.
    17 July 2020 @ 23:54
    PM miners have been on 🔥 Pretty extended rn though.
    • NK
      Nir K.
      18 July 2020 @ 11:12
      I think that if pm will continue to go up the miners have a lot more to go
    • JC
      John C.
      18 July 2020 @ 20:19
      Thanks so much.
  • GH
    Grant H.
    17 July 2020 @ 19:10
    Not sure if there will be a transcript. A bit hard to hear, but I think I figured out three of the four - Novo Resources Corp (Australia) Candor Resources (Peru) Eloro Resources (Bolivia) ...couldn't find what sounded like "SK Mining" in Canada.
    • AD
      Abhijit D.
      17 July 2020 @ 22:20
      Its Eskay Mining
    • AH
      Attila H.
      18 July 2020 @ 15:14
      *Condor Resources (Peru)
  • KB
    Keith B.
    18 July 2020 @ 05:42
    Max, yuan is pronounced ‘you-ahn’ not ‘won’
  • AI
    Andras I.
    18 July 2020 @ 02:17
    About Max's question for retail investors wondering if they could access this XAU/CNH trade: It's certainly possible without an ISDA - I could put it on in a multitude of ways in an Interactive Brokers (or I guess many other) account with a choice of spot, CFD, futures or futures options on pretty cheap (0.8-1.5%) margin. I guess it cannot match OTC offerings but hey... Now because I could doesn't necessarily mean I should - for me the CNH or HKD leg is a bit iffy but I guess it reduces the need to have a strong view on the USD. Gold performed probably the best relative to CNY compared to most other currencies but is it going to continue? Why not some other, more free market EM currency or a basket of them (like CEW ETF)? Anyway, each to their own.
    • AI
      Andras I.
      18 July 2020 @ 02:37
      Nevermind, commented too early, Tavi clarified this later
  • JC
    John C.
    18 July 2020 @ 00:26
    So, I exchange USD for CNY and buy gold. Gold goes up and CNY goes down. I sell the gold (with proceeds going into what currency?). I assume CNY. If so, it would seem that I’d get more CNY with a lower value (especially if CNY has been devalued). Do I then wait for CNY to go up? If I convert the CNY back to USD, I get fewer USD, right? I’m feeling very stupid, can someone explain? Thanks.
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      18 July 2020 @ 00:40
      Nonono you got it wrong. Simply speaking, you'd have to borrow in yuan and buy gold. That way when you sell your gold, you owe in yuan (which has been devalued)
    • BS
      Bevyn S.
      18 July 2020 @ 00:42
      If it were a forex pair, you'd be buying XAU/CNY