what's up with sending me an email for an event that is 3 months old?

A landslide victory on a recession? WOW, I am sorry you have been either over thinking WAY TO MUCH or smoking some really good stuff. At least Julian still has all his marbles and made sense. I think you guys are going to surprised by the economic strength in China, even without a trade deal. They have pulled a bunch of levers and they will be kicking in soon, if not already. You guys really need to keep your politics out of investing. We really don't want to hear it. Also, every single Democrat is polling they would beat Trump - so you just burying your head in the sand won't change the facts that most Americans don't like Trump. We are not going to zero rates guys. This explains why banks are rallying again. The long end of the yield curve is rising, not falling. You got this entire thing backward. You will very likely get slaughtered. Julian might have a bit of a clue, but Raoul is lost. The doom loop. I guess you have to come up with something so retarded to scare people and try to sell newsletters. LOL

Does anyone have the article of negative interest rate that Julian is talking about?

Finally I understand why there is a market for negative-yielding debt. Without the bail-ins in Cyprus it wouldn't be possible. Now people realize that keeping money in the bank has risks and they prefer to take a guaranteed loss of -0.5% or whatever than risk the bank failing and losing all their money to a bail-in. Makes me wonder if the situation in Cyprus a few years ago was orchestrated to bring this about, or if the powers that be just took advantage of an unplanned situation.

Congratulations and best wishes on you wedding Raoul.

Permanent portfolio. 25% Long term US Treasuries, 25% USD, 25% S&P ETF, 25% Gold Bullion You'll do great through all this over the next 5 years, but lose on part of it. Just be comfortable with admitting you don't know whats going to happen - and keep a trading portfolio to jump on the momentum where ever it builds. That's my plan at least.

One can go to QE without dropping rates to zero. I agree pension funding must be a major driver. It is not just current payouts as people are retiring; it is all the funding for future payouts. The defined pension plans will force companies to add more funds to make up for the loss of the past expected market returns. This is a funding requirement that will decrease debt repayment and corporate buybacks. I do not know how it will play out, but I can see the cliff. DLS

Correct me if I am wrong, but aren't those informations regarding plumbing from Zoltan Pozsar global money notes? Or is there some other researcher from whom Zoltan is taking data? Because everything that was said is coming from his paper..

Raoul , I have a question. If there is this huge disparity between onshore and offshore dollars, how does this affect Eurodollar futures?

Apart from the last 5 min I got nothin out of this!. It looks like nobody knows where we are headed from here.

Aaaa@

"Something is wrong, something is wrong. I cant point my finger, but interest rates will reach -3%." The thing is, he may be right. The thing is, Raoul mate has been warning us for 3 years. The thing is, last 3 years has been pretty good trade with >25% equity returns. The thing is, being early is also being wrong. The thing is, he will eventually be right one day, and he will come back and tout his horn. Respect Raoul for sticking out, but some reflection and self introspection would be good.

I can clearly see Raoul's mind is somewhere else. actually learned quite a bit here. thank you.

Since ECB delivered on its QE infinity and beyond, TLRTO extension and 10bps cut in depo rate (useless cut IMO) - Super Mario has left ECB with a bang..nicely setting up for Largarde. The German 10 year yield is moving higher.. why is this happening?

What makes the big liquidity drain even more interesting is that the economy is still in the midst of the approximate 18-month lag from QT.

Congratulations on your wedding!

Thank you for a peek into insider talks. The back and forth is an insight to your thinking process and it is exciting to see the thought process. What I have have learned from Real Visionision is incredible. You have to process the information here and make you own decisions, If you want a manual on telling you exactly of what to do, go purchase a Chiltons manual and repair engines. Congratulations Raoul on finding the love of your life.

Who can help with "Bail-In" risk? Should this happen in the USA, how can we avoid it? Not really feasible to open numerous bank accounts with each having under $80-$100K cash deposits. Schwab sweeps cash and transactions into Schwab Bank, but how do we play it? Any suggestions appreciated! This presentation is a think tank for sure. Maybe the "something big" is a Monetary Crisis starting in Europe?

Congrats on your wedding Raoul. Now that's important stuff. Best wishes, Peter.

Again, disappointed with the commentary. i had hoped commentary would improve and expand my understanding of the content. Save a few, if you don't have anything to contribute use the thumbs up tool.

Congrats and best wishes to Raoul on his upcoming marriage! Awesome!

What is the safe play/trade to avoid being screwed by "bail-in's" in the USA, i.e., Dodd-Frankenstien? Any ideas out there are appreciated.

Thank you both for sharing your thoughts with the RV community. Raoul, wishing you and your wife-to-be a beautiful wedding and life together - may your lives be full of joy, love and deep authenticity.

You should have Juliette Declercq back on RV. Her recent analysis on h/t @macrovoices for how monetary and fiscal policy will end up working together, while scary, is very compelling and I would like to hear more. Keep up the good work!

Coppock Indicator for KBE US is below zero and turns upwards from a trough. This is a Long term buy signal. This is the 3rd signal this cycle (1st was in April 2012, 2nd was September 2016 and now again).

https://www.macrovoices.com/683-macrovoices-184-luke-gromen-jeff-snider

Congrats for your weddibg Raoul. Very interesting that Dodd Frank-Eurodollar discussion at the end.

Brilliant as always. Thank you.

The RP/JB dialogue interviews are always great! Some of my favorites. Congratulations on the wedding! Best wishes. B

Apologize about my player tweet this is not the format for technical issues

Pleasantly surprised and appreciative to see an episode of Macro Insiders on RealVision. Perhaps I misunderstood that these conversations were going to be limited to those who paid an additional premium above the annual RealVision fee. I don't expect to be able to watch future editions in the same time frame as those who pay, but even an 8 day lag is really interesting and helpful in understanding what's going on. (One of you mentioned the conversation was on the 5th and this is published on the 13th). For those of us who are merely retirees, lacking the funds or the knowledge to engage in most of the trades you describe, please know that your conversations are nonetheless really super stuff. I hope RealVision, Raoul and Julian will continue to make these available from time to time, and this was not a one time "sneak peek".. And congratulations to Raoul and his significant other. Much happiness.

Having trouble with your player as it told me

THIS is why I am a Macro Insiders subscriber! Off-the-scale thought provoking. And Raoul: congratulations!

Thanks for explaining the TGA (Treasury General Account) as a piggy bank. It helps to explain why it is important yet does not seem to correlate to anything else.

A landslide victory? Seriously. (Not sure two Brits offer the best insight into U.S. politics.) Trump may win but he will never win a landslide victory, no matter what the market or economy is doing at the time. In any case, from an investor's standpoint, the question is, how do we position ourselves NOW? Which brings me to inflation, growth, earnings, and USD. Hard to forecast, as proven by humans' terrible track record in doing so. Hence, how do we manage risks given current conditions and probabilities (e.g., what to do about bonds)? Like it when you address specifics (what's the trade?), more so than the discussions about what could happen (possibilities). Also, like it when Raoul asks, what if we're all wrong? Helps us ask what we should always be asking ourselves: what if we're not seeing things clearly? This conversation spurred thought. Good job, guys.

Julian get Keith McCullough next month

Great discussion! The end of the conversation may warrant Zoltan Pozsar's appearance on RV. ;)

Maybe i'm ignorant on something, but we keep talking about bond yields heading lower as the major risk. I agree, this is part of the major problem, but we already have 17 trillion dollars of negative yielding debt. During selloffs like what we've seen in the last few days, anybody holding this 17 trillion worth of debt is getting eaten alive. The amount of losses on this $ is enormous. I think we head back negative, but the spikes both ways in bond volatility are going to be brutal..

Julian What is the brand and model number of the microphone you are using? your voice comes through so clear. Thank you The interviews with you are Raoul are the best!

Congrats RP!

Doom Loop. Sounds ominous.

so who's buying bonds today

I threw comments on Twitter as we progressed through this discussion /video. I really (really) think you both considered the eventualities and possibilities and loosely picked a winner. This will end up near the metal space. Not because I am heavy and long but because you merged the politics, the personalities and the market. That's why I subscribe. Great job and real talk.

Thinkers like Raoul are the reason we subscribe to RealVision. Congrats on the wedding!

Excellent discussion, Thanks

Great interview - the part covered about the on/off dollars was v interesting. And congratulations to Raoul!

I think the problem is that the dollar is too strong but it is one of the few currencies backed by very real rare assets like oil and war. This creates a conundrum with QE eventually ending in deflation equal to that of the inflation QE creates, canceling it out. Because of this petrodollar based system, assets like oil are priced in dollars, a currency hard to obtain in other countries undergoing inflation well into the later stages of QE and/or approaching recession, therefore when the feds try to inflate the dollar it actually creates more demand for dollars because they are needed to purchase assets and/or pay down debts which are based in dollars. Most people think the feds and central banks have the tools necessary to inflate the US dollar to match that of other countries but when it doesn't work and the dollar continues to climb, this may be the black swan nobody sees coming. This explains a lot about why the multi trillion bailouts didn't cause any perceived inflation of assets, not necessarily because it didn't reach the working class, but because QE gets cancelled out by the increased demand for dollars during a recession.

Please bring out a clip on youtube, from Julian talking about the Brexit!

Aloha Real Vision Team, as always I laugh and I cry, as I look forward to another timely insightful episode of the Macro masters MI based work. Thanks for everything, take care, and stay sharp.