The Macro Insiders Debate

Published on
July 18th, 2019
51 minutes

The Macro Insiders Debate

Macro Insiders ·
Featuring Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden

Published on: July 18th, 2019 • Duration: 51 minutes

What will the Fed do — and will it matter? In the July episode of “Insider Talks,” Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden debate the likelihood of a full-on recession versus a recovery from the current slowdown. They also speak about which way the dollar will break, and which assets one wants to own over the next five years. Filmed on July 2, 2019 and made available to Macro Insiders subscribers on July 5.



  • nr
    nicholas r.
    25 April 2020 @ 20:54
    Raoul, I would love to learn from you as a mentor! I am saving up to get the pro subscription to get a more direct learning experience and so I can learn at a faster pace! You have been calling so many things right. Your knowledge is so valuable! Luck?? I don't think so. Luck = when preparation meets opportunity. Right now the world is still in the midst of the Corona Virus and demand is taking a huge hit. I know there was no way for you to predict a pandemic causing markets to crash, but damn everything you said was spot on and is happening right now! (dollar rising, gold rising, rates near 0 and maybe negative) This pandemic has accelerated the crash like no one has ever seen before. As of this moment, while typing this, markets (spx) have bounced ~30% and (nasdaq) ~50% from the lows (idk if they are temporary lows but we will find out). Thank you for everything you have taught me so far!
  • JC
    Juan C.
    16 September 2019 @ 19:54
    Congratulations Raoul.
  • MS
    Michael S.
    18 July 2019 @ 16:24
    Love it, except Julian’s vulgarity makes him seem less credible and have less authority.
    • GF
      Gordon F.
      19 July 2019 @ 01:49
      I'll have to admit that I'm no fan of vulgarity, but I didn't feel that it diminished Julian's credibility at all. It seemed more that he was expressing himself as he would in a private conversation, to which we were privileged to listen, and his analysis and insights give him plenty of credibility in my book. If Raoul and Julian are willing to post such conversations on RV again, I will be listening carefully to the ideas and concepts without worrying that vulgarity may be included.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      22 July 2019 @ 02:06
      Michael...... I like the Trumpian response.... "If it bothers you don't listen" (You know the Ole...go back where you came from)
    • BH
      Bernard H.
      24 July 2019 @ 05:02
      I disagree. Julian's profanity is not gratuitous - the emphasis is there to make the point. I must say I do look forward to these MI debates. Julian and Raoul are as amusing as they are informative :).
    • DD
      Derek D.
      28 July 2019 @ 14:03
      Don't ever go near a trading desk or fund manager's meeting then.
    • WW
      Wade W.
      15 September 2019 @ 22:14
      Put your ear muffs on then. Those guys speak with passion, about something they are passionate about. I also think they actually care about their subscribers. We are all big boys and girls and can handle a few profanities.
  • WW
    Wade W.
    15 September 2019 @ 21:56
    Firstly congrats Raoul, exciting news. Great interview guys, learned a lot. As for the future, I think the scenario in which Wall Street makes a bundle and Joe Blow takes a bath is probably most likely to happen. I’m with Julian .... tangible is best for my money.
  • DH
    Dean H.
    5 September 2019 @ 12:11
    Julian placed the odds of a technical recession in the U.S. at 20%. This week's ISM was a reading of 49.1. According to Raoul's analysis of the ISM/business cycle in a video in 2016, the historic data places the odds of a U.S. recession at about 65% whenever the ISM falls below 50, and 80% if it drops below 47. So a reading of 49.1 probably implies something like a 70% chance at the moment. The Fed's own model places the probability at over 40% (but in the past when it reached this level a recession always followed). The ECRI leading indicator is still falling. So the odds of a recession have increased significantly since this excellent debate. That's why I think we're going to see some more rare cuts/stimulus announced in Europe this month and the U.S. soon thereafter, as the central banks try to get back in front of the curve (but they're already way too late). The declining ISM also implies negative YoY growth in equities. That's why I'm leaning bearish. I expect the cuts to once again underwhelm markets which are expecting some sort of QE bazooka announcement in September. The underwhelming cuts could also see further dollar strength and bring on a corrective phase in gold, which is currently well overextended.
  • FD
    Francis D.
    14 August 2019 @ 02:40
    How can he say FANGS work when there's no growth? Most of these haven't got through even one cycle.
  • BS
    Brandon S.
    2 August 2019 @ 02:03
    I’ve been a RV sub for years. This is my all time favorite piece of content.
  • DD
    Derek D.
    28 July 2019 @ 14:10
    Julian is right re: growth stocks. I hate to help other RV subscribers get on the right side of this, but we've already been seeing this trade put on in massive size since January. This is Keith McCullough's "Quad 3" regime. Growth is slowing while inflation is accelerating. Energy and tech stocks (Nasdaq, QQQs, XLK) are buys in that regime. Now energy is getting killed as it's looking more like Quad 4. Tech has yet to play catchup, but notice it's been a little less eager to make new highs as frequently as of late. We'll see how it plays out from here. There's a real battle amongst all the FOMO chart chasing.
    • DD
      Derek D.
      28 July 2019 @ 14:16
      And he's not contradicting himself re: the discussion of value. He's saying if nominal yields rise that'll kill or slow the chase into quality large cap growth (QQQs to a T). Generally a quad 3 regime is good for treasuries, but if you get a steepener like they've discussed where the long end of the curve sells off, this would be a huge problem for anything levered to low rates and essentially zero cost of capital. You don't pay up to chase growth in that environment.
    • DD
      Derek D.
      28 July 2019 @ 14:21
      But I don't think Raoul's scenario would be good for new highs for the SPGX on Julian's chart as Julian says. Raoul's scenario is Quad 4. That's Julian's dollar "napalm run". Everything to a correlation of 1 as Raoul says. Everything gets crushed there. Maybe the ratio stays elevated because platinum goes down as well given the bleak growth outlook, but I would imagine it goes down much less than FAANG stocks.
  • RD
    Ron D.
    18 July 2019 @ 17:42
    Really helpful video, but did not like Julien here. Obviously subjective, but he comes across as extremely condescending and just waiting to here himself talk - Raoul is the one making this a discussion. Also he keeps dodging comebacks with pretty questionable oneliners or just jumping off entirely. (how do you go from "europe/japan have 0% and their growth stocks underperform" to "hey look at this SPgrowth/Plat chart that I am also going to use to benchmark the entire base metal market??).
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      18 July 2019 @ 22:06
      Ron I'm not sure if you are a MI subscriber but Raoul and I occasionally have very spirited discussions. They aren't meant to be condescending or disparaging and both of us have been accused of dominating the conversation. Interestingly, they have typically occurred at significant inflection points within markets.
    • DD
      Derek D.
      28 July 2019 @ 14:00
      I've never sensed this at all. Let my MI sub lapse, but the discussions were always great. I met Raoul very briefly at a conference in Grand Cayman, and I'm just a guy, and he chatted with me like we were old friends. Total gent, and as far as I can tell he and Julian are old friends, and that's all I need to know.
  • AB
    Amarildo B.
    20 July 2019 @ 23:14
    Im with Raoul on this trade and im not an economist.
    • DD
      Derek D.
      28 July 2019 @ 13:55
      What economist would ever be with Raoul on this trade other than maybe an Austrian? Hahaha it's basically the "all economists should be fired' trade.
  • BH
    Brad H.
    24 July 2019 @ 18:51
    Julian is the Peter Schiff of this discussion.
    • DD
      Derek D.
      28 July 2019 @ 13:53
      Except one thing I wish more people would agree with Peter on: strong currencies are good for your population. Now I think Julian might just be trying to say that the Fed and China would "f*#%" the Europeans and the Japanese by exporting deflation in terms of it would cause the governments and certainly financial markets a lot of problems. If he's just talking in terms of how to trade/respond to it, then he's absolutely right. The deflationary bust crushes everything. But, in terms of policy gosh I hope not. We desperately need policymakers to stop screwing the people with fiat and inflationary monetary/fiscal policy. We don't have a spending problem. I know I'm in danger of sounding like a "supply sider", but unfortunately all that term apparently describes are dopes like Kudlow who think cutting taxes to get those bigger deficits, without any spending cuts, is the secret to growth. Tax cuts are good. We need them. But it's just one small piece. If the term actually meant that you believe savings and production are the keys to real economic growth, I'd wear a t-shirt that says "Proud Supply Sider".
  • AB
    Andrew B.
    26 July 2019 @ 11:10
    I think they are both right in certain respects, Raoul very much spot on with the shorter term, I think we're heading for quite a short but VERY sharp deflationary bust due to the corporate leverage out there. HOWEVER, I think Julian is correctly looking ahead at what's to come thereafter, perhaps just a little early.
  • HK
    H K.
    18 July 2019 @ 06:56
    good discussion. not conclusive yet, but good. p.s. it was kind of cute how raoul apologies preemptively for the video quality. it's all right mate, the content quality is v good
    • FC
      Frederick C.
      22 July 2019 @ 13:40
      Agreed. Content trumps even the worse combination of flaring shirts you could pick for the camera ;) makes it even more authentic!
    • CM
      C M.
      25 July 2019 @ 16:44
      Agreed. While I understand RV's desire to produce top quality stuff, bet many subscribers are like me and just interested in the audio and charts. If doing videos like this makes your production easier, will not influnece my decision to subscribe as long as content is strong. Everything doesn't need to be shot in a nice looking studio setting.
  • CM
    C M.
    25 July 2019 @ 16:40
    So this comes up in the comments below, the question about buying TLT. I have the same question. Believe in the Lacy Hunt thesis that rates are going to zero. Would seem TLT would be the place to be. But Raoul argues the curve will steepen. Assume this is due to either rising inflation as Fed cuts or lots of supply on the market by the deficit spending US govt, which forces rates higher to find buyers. The other side of this argument would be US treasuries being the safe haven in a downturn thus increasing demand for treasuries. Also, wouldn't QE by the Fed include driving down long rates as well so that other rates, i.e. mortage rates, don't rise? It would seem to be the Fed's goal to shift the whole curve downward (but not inverted) and to not allow long term rates to climb to offset their cut in ST rates. Curious on people's thoughts here as l am looking to increase my bond exposure.
  • LT
    Lars T.
    25 July 2019 @ 09:23
    Great discussion, demonstrate how complex markets are at the moment. Would prefer a more clear summary in the end of if x then y pending bla bla, And the format worked excellent
  • SL
    Stephen L.
    23 July 2019 @ 12:26
    "more fun sticking red hot needles up your .... under your fingernails" ha!
    • SL
      Stephen L.
      23 July 2019 @ 12:57
      Great chat, giving serious consideration to a subscription
  • FC
    Frederick C.
    22 July 2019 @ 13:48
    « Debt jubilee in Japan, we don’t know how it ends »... that is the most vexing question to me, why don’t we know? Can’t we bring Woody Brock and Lacy Hunt in to debate this? According to MMT proponents, all those bonds are just a way to pay interest on cash (mostly to banks and institutions), they are not required for a sovereign nation to create and issue fiat money... Which brings me to the second question: how can fiat currencies (not tied to the dollar) die if sovereign governments require them for the payment of taxes?
  • SP
    Stephen P.
    22 July 2019 @ 13:22
    Excellent discussion. Raoul wins with a rather more coherent and consistent posture. Julian said growth stocks might be the clear place to be then immediately followed that with value could be better. Raoul thinks the Fed is behind the curve and that surely seems correct; Julian believes in soft landing. Julian should know that AOC cannot be the nominee in 2020 because not only is she not running but the Constitutional requirement is age 35 or greater.
  • AS
    Alex S.
    22 July 2019 @ 04:14
    Great conversation. Would love a summary video from RV on “Recession Week” and what various commentators are recommending. Seems you should own GDX outright, or long dated calls, or go bananas and buy calls on NUGT or some silver miners. Also, some short term UST, or leveraged ETFs, or calls there. BTC, or maybe Dogecoin baby. Curious, Rosenberg recommended long end of UST market, like TLT or EDV type stuff. Most this week are looking at the short end. I found his interview a few months back pretty damn convincing, especially w/r/t the possibility of corporate debt sinking into junk territory, thereby forcing corporations to curtail capex to forestall downgrades. In any event... buy gold?
  • NR
    Nelson R.
    19 July 2019 @ 02:43
    Julian is right, there is no growth names outside the U.S (except for a handful in china). This is particularly true in Europe where socialism and excessive regulation has killed innovation.
    • JC
      John C.
      19 July 2019 @ 05:27
      Socialism coming to the US shortly - just wait. If the Dems win in 2020 you'll see MMT and a whole host of Bernie-style fiscal stimuli. Eventually we're going there no matter who is in charge. I don't see Europe or the US being good incubators of growth and innovation going forward (certainly not Europe, US innovation largely funded by Saudi and Chinese investment into VCs and unicorns (Chinese to steal technology?)
    • DH
      Daniel H.
      19 July 2019 @ 09:10
      We already have crony capitalism and socialism for the rich.
    • PP
      Patrick P.
      22 July 2019 @ 01:48
      Reply to John're assuming the Dems win the Senate....??
  • RM
    Ryan M.
    20 July 2019 @ 18:34
    Radical idea here, what if the equity market and the bond market are actually both right? What if the market is indicating very low inflation/growth, so pile into bonds AND pile into equities who can grow their earnings in this environment or more even attractive, their revenue. The reason the stock market is hanging in there is because there's more growth than value, which lifts the aggregate. It's similar to Julian's comment on DB. Equity tanks but CDS holds up. What does that tell you? Similar to HY spreads not widening, dollar not weakening dramatically, interest rate sensitive sectors (housing, transports, etc.) not tanking. Be interested to hear why people think that doesn't make sense or what I'm missing.
    • LC
      Lloyd C.
      21 July 2019 @ 08:19
      Raoul wins but Julian wins bigger. The whole point of having a reserve currency is to be able to debase it to nothing.
  • GL
    Geoffrey L.
    21 July 2019 @ 01:55
    So we should buy TLT?
  • DJ
    David J.
    21 July 2019 @ 01:29
    This is why I have an RV subscription!
  • LJ
    Lucas J.
    18 July 2019 @ 17:05
    How does Julian not agree with Raoul's demographic story?!?! Maybe he sees a plague wiping out the baby boomers?
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      18 July 2019 @ 21:55
      What drives asset prices is cash flow. Hence, if you look at the boomers up until the late 1970s, they were staring work and living life to the full i.e. they were spenders and didn't buy assets, which is why bond yields were high. They then started to have kids and saved by buying assets, which lowered bond yields. This trend continued until very recently. However, they are now retiring i.e. they move from saving to spending. Now, in fairness they spending on different things than they did in their 20's but they are still spending not saving and they are liquidate assets to fund that expense.
    • BM
      Bryan M.
      19 July 2019 @ 02:58
      Julian is right. I am one and I am down sizing. I don't need two cars anymore. I don't need a 2800 sq. ft. house with 4 baths, 2 humans and 1 poodle, etc., etc. And...I don't get that hungry anymore and I can't drink more than 1 or 2 beer!!!
    • GT
      Gene T.
      21 July 2019 @ 00:50
      I'm no expert on demographics, but my understanding has always been that retirees spend less than when they were working - at a minimum, they don't have to pay for their children's education, food, clothing, etc. Are we saying Boomers are going to be spending MORE than they did during their peak earning years? Seems like there should be loads of data to confirm one way or the other, no?
  • CL
    Chad L.
    20 July 2019 @ 15:31
    Great week of content...more great value from RV. Question for Raul: part of your doom loop thesis is that there will be big pressure on equities as Boomers retire and need to sell. While the demographics of the humans is inarguable, I think I the demographics of their assets are worth a deeper dive. At least in the States most boomers have nothing or next to nothing in the market. There will be no selling pressure form them. Many are turning to reverse mortgages to fund their later years so maybe there will be a knock on effect from that, but I don’t see equity selling pressure happening the way you describe. Further, of those boomers that do own equities many have a significant surplus of funds versus their needs, so perhaps not as much selling pressure there either. Of course Social Security Medicare and other entitlements will come under back breaking pressure, but that’s a fiscal issue that really doesn’t directly impact equities. Plus, millennials, while delayed on the scene and a little equity averse, are an even bigger demographic that could pick up the bid. So I’m wondering if that view of the demographics might short circuit the doom loop scenario? I’d like to see RV bring on a demographics expert to break this down. It’s not as simplistic as it seems.
    • CL
      Chad L.
      20 July 2019 @ 15:33
      Sorry for the name typo Raoul. 🤪
  • RX
    Robert X.
    20 July 2019 @ 14:01
    Love the format and the content. Raoul has been on fire this year so updates are greatly appreciated.
  • IP
    IDA P.
    20 July 2019 @ 13:43
    Everyone always says that when there is a contrast between the bond market and the equity market, the bond market is always right. Yes, of course, but since everyone takes this as a given, probably it will not be true this time and the equity market could be right and bond market wrong.
    • IP
      IDA P.
      20 July 2019 @ 13:54
      if the curve steepens, shouldn't we say that certain markets will fall (tech)? while commodity producers should go up?
  • CC
    Chris C.
    20 July 2019 @ 12:54
    In a yield lowering environment why doesn’t $TLT work?
    • IP
      IDA P.
      20 July 2019 @ 13:48
      short term yields down, long term yields relatively higher = curve steepening
  • RR
    Ryan R.
    19 July 2019 @ 06:17
    Love this conversation better than the RV format. Just seems real and uncut.
    • ND
      Noel D.
      20 July 2019 @ 05:02
      I liked this format a lot - it was refreshing and getting the regular "higher quality" productions along with the occasional one like this would improve my overall RV experience. Content was occasionally over my head but both informative and entertaining nevertheless. Great job.
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    19 July 2019 @ 17:52
    Great content. I really appreciate macro conversations with old hands who are happy to disagree. Thank you.
  • JF
    Josh F.
    19 July 2019 @ 16:01
    Read Macro Tourist's Jubilee MMT thoughts. If Japan owned all the govt debt and then wiped it out, would the currency actually really weaken?
    • SB
      Stewart B.
      19 July 2019 @ 17:51
      I don't think there is any incentive for the Japanese to Jubilee their debt. Practically it would make no difference as its robbing Peter to pay Paul who in turn repays Peter. It's already monetized.
  • JK
    John K.
    19 July 2019 @ 15:40
    @Raoul, Please give us more of precisely this! Loved every minute of it.
  • BG
    Bharath G.
    19 July 2019 @ 01:33
    In this current case I agree more with bond market and Raoul. I think we will have a head fake in dollar now Julian . Why ? because look at autos, tarrifs, student loans, oil , bond they all agree. Over the summer dollar goes lower and everyone gets complacent that reflation trade is working and the moronic equity vigilantes who have not seen real depression over last 40 years come out and force the fed to pause and hike again before going al the way down to 0 and the bottom really falls out. I am saying that because dollar goes down over next few months we cannot automatically infer that bonds are wrong and this is 2015. Could still be worse than 2008. I am with raoul over 12 month horizon and with Julian over 3 month horizon.
    • BG
      Bharath G.
      19 July 2019 @ 01:37
      The day when I will truly believe that Fed is commited to weakening dollar and reflation is when they quit trying to normalize the balance sheet. Fed needs to be willing to have an arbitrarily large balance sheet for arbitrarily long without itching to normalize like what Powell is trying. In other words Neel kashkari :) LOL .
    • JC
      John C.
      19 July 2019 @ 05:29
      I agree. Raoul's stance more believable and historically accurate. I could see inflation hit but CBs will do whatever they can to stave off recession (too late)) and keep lowering rates and enact QE on a massive scale. That will eventually cause runaway inflation but it's years away.
    • CL
      Chris L.
      19 July 2019 @ 13:46
      Weather they extend it or not I think is irrelevant for the most part. Inflation is coming. Oil has ripped the last three times the Fed began to cut. That will begin the late cycle inflation push IMO. Look at eurodollars then at TIPS - nearly identical. You can also look at eurodollar front month and RINF (inflation expectations ETF). Since June, inflation expectations dip when eurodollars dip and vice versa. I tweeted Raoul a chart (can see it @themacrostrat), no response, where in 2008, eurodollars '09, TLT and the 10s/2s went parabolic until the Fed announced QE1. The TLT then collapsed 30 handles in almost a straight line. So, if we are to assume the Fed could cut dramatically or begin assets purchases at anytime on a whim, I think it's pretty reckless to continue to advocate just piling into EDs and bonds frankly
  • PJ
    Peter J.
    19 July 2019 @ 11:45
    Great discussion, will need to watch again....and possibly again to take on board all of the various counter arguments. More please!!
  • TR
    Thomas R.
    18 July 2019 @ 17:21
    haha, so true. German infrastructure IS shit. Ever took a train here? You'll be lucky if it's one time and not totally overbooked... and there's no wifi
    • JC
      John C.
      19 July 2019 @ 05:36
      what happened? It seemed pretty good to me 5 years should try using the US train grid and Amtrack..ughhh
  • TM
    The-First-James M.
    18 July 2019 @ 18:05
    I'm splitting hairs here, but Woodford's demise is not only because he reached for yield further up the risk curve. He also tried running a VC strategy within an open ended fund structure. These guys have been all over Woodford since 2015: Woodford segment starts 10 minutes in. Shareprophets have received woeful attribution and recommendation from the UK press WRT Woodford, but at least got an honourary shout out from Bloomberg.
    • JC
      John C.
      19 July 2019 @ 05:33
      Didn't listen but is the thesis that you can't have an open-ended structure with illiquid assets underlying the fund? Like HY?
  • JH
    Jesse H.
    18 July 2019 @ 18:57
    Very thought-provoking - thanks, guys. View on silver is clearly somewhat out of date - would be interested to get Julian's take on the recent strange break-out in silver.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      18 July 2019 @ 21:40
      Jesse I'm watching the Gold/Silver ratio which appears to be breaking lower. Big picture it is VERY early days but if it goes the move could be substantial and historically occurs in very reflationary environments.
    • JC
      John C.
      19 July 2019 @ 05:32
      RE silver, is the reflation case a litle down the road say 1Q-2Q 2020 when Asia and most of EM likely start to rebound? Have been burned too many times before with silver and gold.
  • JR
    J R.
    18 July 2019 @ 23:57
    Power will swing from debtor to creditor. The largest debtor is the US government. They are incentivized purely to monetize and inflate away their debt. This is why the dollar can go down even vs similar scenarios in Europe and Japan. Maybe a short term deflationary bust first to really spur the Fed into action, but long term dollar down gold up, value over growth and nominal yields up.
    • JC
      John C.
      19 July 2019 @ 05:30
      Maybe. Dollar doesn't have to go down for gold to go up though. Look at what's happening now.
  • CH
    Chris H.
    19 July 2019 @ 03:25
    Is this the brother of General Mad Dog Mattis?
  • RS
    Roger S.
    19 July 2019 @ 03:07
    Julian talks like a valley girl please kill the "like" other than that the discussion was very good
  • JA
    Jordan A.
    19 July 2019 @ 03:03
    I think you're both right: stagflation
  • GB
    Gary B.
    19 July 2019 @ 02:13
    Extra props and respect to Julian for jumping into comments to answer questions on the nuances of the discussion
    • BM
      Bryan M.
      19 July 2019 @ 02:51
  • BM
    Bryan M.
    19 July 2019 @ 02:49
    Very delightful conversation. Oddly, I think you guys may both be right at different times so yeah, I agree that we could get a dose of deflation, with sub zero rates and all that goes with it but then, I can also see how that could lead to a gross increase in longer term bonds due to a) a hissy fit in the bond market and/or b) a loss of confidence in the reserve currency (the U.S. $) and/or c) a revolt by enough countries against the dollar hegemony due to the U.S. using the Swift system to coerce other countries and/or d) which is a strong dose of inflation...which is why I keep a chart of the D-Mark from 1913 - 1923 in my desk.
  • DC
    Dave C.
    19 July 2019 @ 01:20
    Excellent discussion and very timely. Thanks to Julian for his participation in the comments section - particularly regarding Silver - maybe Silver is an very early signal of the direction?
  • DH
    Daniel H.
    19 July 2019 @ 00:23
    About that argument that the stock and bond markets are in different camps: there has been little absolute growth in earnings. The growth has been in earnings per share due to buybacks. Why we not just get more of the same? Fed lowers rates to make money cheaper, corporations continue to borrow cheap money to do buybacks. That is muddle through this slowdown. If we get a recession that turns a lot of BBB debt to junk, that does not generate growth and inflation. Deflation will be winning big. So rates go to zero. How do we get to 4% in T-bonds any time soon given that growth has been anemic at best, and is in danger of getting much worse?
  • KD
    Kaj D.
    18 July 2019 @ 23:29
    “not the visual quality that you used to have for Real Vision. It's more about the discussion” The discussion is just fine! Any day of the week. The educational quality of this is just ridiculous for me. Even Julian’s responses to comments here – I’m still taking notes! Thank you all at Real Vision
  • WG
    Wayne G.
    18 July 2019 @ 23:21
    Terrific debate and refreshing to hear an intelligent discussion of differing viewpoints without the interlocutors resorting to ad hominem attacks. Should be required viewing for politicians everywhere. Personally, I'm leaning towards Raoul's recession view although I don't think Trump will allow the dollar to strengthen appreciably ahead of the election. Might it be possible that the CB's will stage-manage rates lower globally so the currencies stay range bound? Thanks Gents!
  • SB
    Stewart B.
    18 July 2019 @ 19:42
    Nice one. Usually the bond market is right.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      18 July 2019 @ 22:02
      Stewart traditionally yes that was almost always the case. But not since the GFC. Since, then stocks have been correct at calling the turns
  • GS
    Gordon S.
    18 July 2019 @ 16:31
    Great conversation, but apart from trade war mentions, why not more about China? China consumes most of the worlds primary resources, so lower commodity prices could be more a result of China? That could also weight on deflation but it's not that easy to export it with tariffs now? Very interesting macro setup indeed. I like dollar long and dollar short, so I'll just buy vol as it is incredibly cheap.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      18 July 2019 @ 21:57
      Gordon outside the Euro the dollar is starting to rollover. The problem is that most retail investors can only position in assets/ETFs that have a very heavy EURUSD weighting. So playing the move is hard until the Euro participates.
  • DB
    David B.
    18 July 2019 @ 17:29
    With 29 minutes left, Julian says that the Chinese and U.S. are essentially on the path to exporting deflation. How does he reconcile that with bond yields going to 4%??? I love these guys and Julian is really really great, but I must be missing something.
    • JB
      Julian B. | Contributor
      18 July 2019 @ 21:48
      Hi David. Its a question of sequencing. The US exports deflation via a weak $ policy and by default the Chinese follow, because the CNY shadows the $. The recipients of that blow are Europe and Japan. However, historically, once the $ starts to weaken it isn't long we start to see EM and commodities improve (we are seeing signs now) and that drives a recovery in EM and ultimately global growth. That brings us to the end game, as reflation turns into inflation, which is when bond yields in the US go to 4% (think what happened in 2016/17).
  • MV
    Max V.
    18 July 2019 @ 19:26
    “If you never did. You should. These things are fun and fun is good” Couch Pillow
  • FB
    Fernando B.
    18 July 2019 @ 19:11
    Excellent discussion! I signed up for RealVision to listen to this! Raoul and Julian... Thank you
  • LP
    Lynn P.
    18 July 2019 @ 18:45
    "Everyone starts closing out longs and going into the Feds (short-term)" Yep, that's me. If we get to zero rates I should still be OK
  • JV
    Jens V.
    18 July 2019 @ 18:43
    Interesting discussion. Thanks for sharing.
  • MM
    M. M.
    18 July 2019 @ 18:41
    Got to love Mackeral!
  • AM
    Artem M.
    18 July 2019 @ 17:50
    that was great, i loved how you guys disagreed on stuff, made the conversation seem very genuine, thanks for RV
  • OC
    Otto C.
    18 July 2019 @ 16:32
    It's essential to hear both sides of the argument, Thank you, great job!!!
  • TJ
    Terry J.
    18 July 2019 @ 14:21
    Wow! Totally absorbing and captivating debate that I could not take my eyes off! I honestly did not think this recession series could get any better after Raoul’s background setting, followed by debates with Lakshman and Christophe. Fascinating polar views on Treasuries and the dollar from two top macro analysts, but with both bullish on gold! Wow! One of the very best videos ever for me and one I shall be watching again and again!
  • KG
    Kos G.
    18 July 2019 @ 11:02
    Jokes aside, what would be the growth stocks in Europe?
    • JB
      J B.
      18 July 2019 @ 14:09
      Arguably, French luxury during China's boom.
  • JB
    Jean-Michel B.
    18 July 2019 @ 13:59
    Very insightful conversation....mates
  • Nv
    Nick v.
    18 July 2019 @ 13:22
    You have to say though that the Dollar has been WEAK considering what it has had in its favor over the last 3 years. Equity and bond investors are long Dollars up the bazoo. 55% of MSCI All World = USD, and 40% of Global Bond Index. Below 96.50 DXY and the world changes I'm with Julian
  • FA
    Frank A.
    18 July 2019 @ 13:15
    Great work!!
  • MT
    Mike T.
    18 July 2019 @ 09:33
    another excellent conversation, but I would like to make one point. Whilst a debate of this quality is most welcome, and valuable I'm in the camp that firmly believes monitoring 'rate of change' in options market pricing is the best 'real time indicator' of where the most appropriate opportunities are to be found e.g. those assets classes that have seen the 'relatively' largest up move in 'volatility' in recent months (options becoming more expensive compared to historical past) also referred to as IV Rank = Bonds, Reits, Gold. At the risk of being accused of using the rear view mirror, I still think it's worth pointing out options prices 'rate of change' for Bonds, Reits and Gold started to accelerate approx 9 months ago.
    • MK
      Michael K.
      18 July 2019 @ 11:01
      What do your IV Ranks suggest now?
    • MT
      Mike T.
      18 July 2019 @ 11:49
      Michale K. in particular IV Rank for Gold is huge at 86.3%, REITS and Bonds still elevated relative to historical past. Also unlike Equities the Skew for these three asset classes is in favour of Calls over Puts ie the risk is to the upside
  • JB
    Jack B.
    18 July 2019 @ 09:57
    Yeah that was good
  • DS
    David S.
    18 July 2019 @ 08:21
    Thanks for sharing the Macro Insiders Debate. Direction is difficult to determine at the inflection point – 50/50 split. Interest rates must stay low or negative just to allow governments and corporations to rollover bonds. Corporate buybacks may still take the market higher. Baby boomers are topping off retirement accounts at their own peril. I think we are in for slow to low profit growth for a long time. Employment may remain strong, but the old-time, middle-class auto jobs are gone - hello robots. This is just another opinion. No foreknowledge. DLS